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Guy P. Brasseur Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Past Accomplishments and Vision for the Future Outline 1. The MPI-M in a nutshell 2. Mission Statement and Scientific Directions 3. Model Development and Infrastructure 4. Scientific Departments and Projects 5. The International Max Planck School for Earth System Modeling 6. Issues and Challenges 7. Vision for the Future 8. Scientific Presentations 1. The MPI-M in a Nutshell The MPI-M in a Nutshell (1) Founded in 1974 3 Departments Climate Processes Physical Climate System Biogeochemical System 1 Research Group Integrated Assessments ~200 Staff members Total Budget of 14 Millions Euros The MPI-M in a Nutshell (2) MPG-supported positions: 47.5 Scientists: 20 Technicians: 14.5 Administration: 5.5 Others: 7.5 Scientists supported by soft-money: 65 PhD Students: 23 M&D Group: 25 The MPI-M in a Nutshell (3) Positions in each Department or Group Climate Processes: 41 Physical Climate System: 33 Biogeochemical System: 41 Integrated Assessments: 12 International Max Planck Research School: 12 Services: 20 Administration: 20 Others: 10 The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4a) MPG-supported “Scientist Staff” Scientists--Scientific support staff: 11--7 Permanent—Non Permanent: 15--3 Female--Male: 1--17 German--Foreign: 16--2 The MPI-M in a Nutshell (4b) Total Staff of MPI-M Non Permanent -- Permanent: Non German -- German: Female -- Male: 143 -- 46 37 -- 152 77 -- 112 Scientists and Scientific Support Permanent: 15 Non Permanent: 67 The MPI-M in a Nutshell (5) Budget of the Institute (2002) in Euros (including salaries in Meuros) Institutional (MPG) Support: Projects (Soft-money) Overhead: Total: 7.2 6.4 0.3 13.9 The MPI-M in a Nutshell (6) Products and Deliverables 85 papers/year in the peer-reviewed literature Community models and model components (atmosphere, ocean; regional, global) State-of-the-art instrumentation Educational products The MPI-M in a Nutshell (7) The Research Environment Other Max Planck Institutes Biogeochemistry in Jena and Chemistry in Mainz The University of Hamburg (ZMAW) Institute for Meteorology Institute for Oceanography Sustainability Research Unit: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Two National Facilities Model and Data Group (administered by MPI-M) The German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ) The Model and Data Group (M&D) A national facility documenting, adapting and providing to the scientific community state-ofthe-art global and regional climate models A national facility hosting and distributing data sets related to the Earth system, and specifically results from long-term model integrations M&D is administered by the Max Planck Institute and financed by the Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) The German Climate Computer Center (DKRZ) A national infrastructure open to the German scientific community providing top-of-the-line supercomputing facility and visualization tools Private company managed by 4 shareholders (Max Planck Society, University Hamburg, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, Alfred Wegner Institute (AWI) [4 Meuros/year] Infrastructure provided by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) [60 Meuros in 10 years] Organization Shareholder DKRZ MPI-M Cooperation M&D Advise Service WLA Service Requirements German Scientific Community 2. Mission Statement and Scientific Directions Mission Statement To understand how physical, chemical, and biological processes, as well as human behavior contribute to the dynamics of the Earth system, and specifically how they relate to global and regional climate changes. Analysis and Prediction of the Earth Dynamics Develop and use appropriate tools to investigate the complexity of the Earth system, explain its natural variability, assess how the system is affected by changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization and other human-induced perturbations New Directions (1) Extension of physical climate models towards comprehensive Earth system models Development of a new dynamical core for a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model component Development of a unified ocean model with shelfs, tides, and waddens, using a new grid Development of a chemical transport model to analyze observations, quantify global budgets, and assess chemistry-climate interactions New Directions (2) Quantification of energy, water, and carbon partitioning at the land surface, jointly with MPI-Jena Study of energetics, dynamics and chemistry of the mesopause region, and influences of upper atmosphere variability on lower atmospheric processes Assessment of the role of dynamical modes in climate change Investigation of the glacial-interglacial transitions . 3. Model Development and Infrastructure Model development ECHAM-5: Global Atmospheric GCM MPI-OM-1: Global/Regional Ocean GCM with ice model LPJ-BETHY-VIC: Land Vegetation Model MOZART-2: Global Chemical transport model HAMMOC: Ocean Biogeochemical Model REMO: Regional Atmospheric Model with hydrological cycle and coupled ocean model LES: Large-scale Eddy Simulations ATHAM: High resolution simulations of fire and volcanic eruptions Model components of the Earth System ECHAM5, REMO, ATHAM, LES MPI-OM1 LSG HAMMOC LPJ BETHY VIC SICOPOLIS GWEM MOZART, CHEM, CTM, SAM, HAM SDIAM SDEM Atmosphere Physics: Atmospheric Chemistry: Land Surface Coupler Ocean Biogeochemistry: Ocean Physics Regional Climate: Sea Ice Infrastructure (1) A new organizational structure with Three Scientific Divisions One Scientific Project for Integrated Assessment A Service Group (Information Technology, Public Relations and Graphics, Library, Workshop) The Administration The Model and Data Group (transferred from DKRZ, administered by MPI-M) Seminar Series The International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modeling Infrastructure (2) Service functions (IT, PR) have been centralized, and a plan for IT development is in preparation, intranet and internet A new building is being constructed A Strategic Plan for scientific research during the next 8 years Several cross-cutting working groups open to scientists from outside MPI-M Infrastructure (3) Joint project with MPI-Biogeochemistry, MPI- Chemistry and PIK (Essence Project) has been developed. International links, specifically with Institut Laplace in Paris for joint Earth System Model studies have been established. New supercomputing facilities have been installed and are accessible to MPI-M scientists (DKRZ-Hamburg) DKRZ Hardware Configuration (in preparation) Distribution of computing resources Shareholders: 50% MPG: 27% Uni-HH: 13% AWI: 5% GKSS: 5% Projects (BMBF, DFG): 50% PRISM An Infrastructure Project for Climate Research in Europe To create a European infrastructure for developing, coordinating and executing a longterm program of European-wide, multiinstitutional Earth System simulations Develop a system of portable, efficient and user-friendly community models with associated visualization/diagnostic software under standardized coding conventions. PRISM Partners Coordination: MPI-M, Germany KNMI, The Netherlands MPI-M&D, Germany MetOffice, United Kingdom UREADMY, United Kingdom IPSL, France MétéoFrance, France CERFACS, France DMI, Denmark SHMI, Sweden NERSC, Norway CSCS/ETH, Switzerland INGV, Italy MPI-BGC, Germany PIK, Germany ECMWF, Europe UCL-ASTR, Belgium NEC-ESS, Germany FECIT/Fujitsu, France SGI, Germany SUN, Germany NEC-CCRLE, Germany 4. Scientific Departments and Scientific Projects A Quick Survey Climate Processes Climate Processes Atmospheric Structure from Passive Sensing Atmospheric Structure from Laser Remote Sensing Radar Methods and Technology Modeling of Boundary Layer Processes Aerosol Chemistry Goal: Evaluate energy and moisture exchange between sea surface and the atmosphere from passive microwave satellite data Example: Annual mean field of fresh water flux in mm/d for the years 1992 and 1993 as derived from SSM/I microwave data Derivation of the vertical distribution of key atmospheric parameters as e.g. water vapor, ozone, aerosol, wind, through laser remote sensing Goal: Example: Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) will allow all day water vapor profiling of the troposphere with accuracies comparable to Raman-Lidar results Future Orientations Investigation of the indirect aerosol effects Improvement of water cycle components in climate models Study of the fate organic pollutants in the different components of the Earth system Quantification of smoke aerosols to thermal infrared emissions Improvement and extension of the HOAPS climatology Physical Climate System Physical Climate System Understanding and predicting internal climate variability on seasonal, inter-annual and decadal timescales Sensitivity of the climate system to orbital forcing and meltwater input from ice-sheets Impact of anthropogenic emissions on past and future climate evolution Recent climate trends in model evolution and observations Projected Climate Change Regionalization and Extreme Events Difference in annual mean surface air temperature (average over years 501 to 1000) between the mid-Holocene experiment 6k and the control run (modern insolation and preindustrial pCO2). Differences (%)in a) tree and b) grass plant functional type coverages between the mid-holocene simulation 6k and the control case. Data were averaged over the time period 501 to 1000 years. Future Orientations Interactions between the physical climate system and the biological system (carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry) Simulation of extreme events Stability of the thermohaline circulation High latitude climate Biogeochemical System Biogeochemical System Aerosols, microphysics and climate Atmospheric chemistry at the global and regional scales: chemistry-climate interactions and air quality Biogeochemistry in the ocean Modeling of chemical-dynamical-radiative interactions in the Middle and Upper Atmosphere Atmospheric dynamics and variability modes Anomalies for 1985 relative to 1870, as calculated by the MPI ECHAM-Aerosol Model (Dec-Jan-Feb) MOZART-2 Chemical-Transport Modeling HAMMONIA - Simulation Examples Zonal Mean Temperature [K] and Ozone for January Temperature Ozone Mixing ratio The QBO The Quasi-biennal Oscillation (QBO) is simulated by the Middle Atmosphere Version of ECHAM-5 with 90 levels. No specific forcing is applied to the model. The amplitude and period are comparable to observations. This oscillation is not produced by the model that includes only 39 levels. Marco Giorgetta, MPI-M Variability modes leading to climate regimes exist in the coupled atmosphereocean system. The processes leading to the stability of polarity of these modes are studied in observations and models. Future Orientations Simulation of the atmospheric chemical composition over the last 50 years Analysis and interpretation of space observations of chemical compounds Solar variability, anthropogenic forcing, upper atmosphere response and climate change Development of a system to predict “chemical weather” Coupling of biogeochemical system with physical climate system Integrated Assessments Water and energy cycle in different drainage basins Climate changes in specific regions of the world Arctic Europe (Baltic) West-Africa Socio-economic aspects of climate change on the global scale IPCC-B2 scenario calci: Calculated annual mean precipitation between 2020 and 2050 in response to the. +20% -20% Model: REMO model at 18 km resolution. Lateral boundary conditions are provided by the MPI-M global climate model. Black contours: +/-20% changes in annual precipitation with respect to present (1990-2000) A simple climate model calibrated on the state-of-the-art MPIM climate model is coupled to a socio-economic model, which reflects basic dynamic interactions between actors within the economy. Future Orientations Future development of the MPI-M regional Climate system (aerosol-cloud system, convection, dynamic vegetation) Regional climate changes Future water availability Socio-economic studies will be developed primarily through cooperation with ZMAW and PIK 5. The International Max Planck Research School for Earth System Modeling Objective The purpose of „IMPRS on Earth System Modelling“ is to bring together natural and social scientists to work towards the development and evaluation of a hierarchy of integrated earth system models and their components. Pillars Combination of thesis research and courses International Multidisciplinary Financial Support 1. Zeit Stiftung: 50% 2. Max Planck Society: 50% Participating Organizations 1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 2. University of Hamburg (Institute for Meteorology, Institute for Oceanography, Sustainable Research Unit, Department of Economics) 3. University of Kassel 4. GKSS (Institute for Coastal Zones) 5. HWWA (Hamburg Institute for International Economics) The First Vintage (March 2002) • Nearly 90 applications, 75% from outside Germany, 70% male • 14 Fellowships awarded, 60% from outside Germany, • 15% male additional students financed via projects total of 25, 50% from outside Germany, 30% male The Second Vintage (November, 2002) 73 applications from Argentina, Belarus, Benin, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palestine, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Tanzania, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, USA, Venezuela, Zimbabwe. 8 from Germany Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling Name Country of origin Supported via MPI-M/IMPRS PhD Research Payra, Swagata India The role of the thermohaline circulation in climate change Pfeifer, Susanne Germany MPI-M/SFB Simulation of convective situation in the extratropics/REMO Rechid, Diana Germany MPI-M/BMBF Feedback of vegetation on regional climate variability Ronneberger, Germany Hamburg University/Volkswagen Kerstin Foundation An economic land-use model Santos, Gabriela Portugal The role of natural halocarbons for the global tropospheric ozone budget Stehfest, Elke Germany Kassel University/IMPRS CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions caused by land use change Stier, Phillip Germany MPI-M Towards an assessment of the indirect aerosol effect - development of an aerosol module for a GCM Vizcaino Spain Trueba, Miren ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS MPI-M Ice Sheets and the Earth System - Coupling of an ice sheet model and an OAGCM Wetzel, Patrick Germany MPI-M Short term variability of ocean CO2 budgets Woth, Katja Germany MPI-M Recent and future storm surge climate for the North Sea Zhou, Yuan China Hamburg University/IMPRS An Economic Analysis of Water resources and Water consumption due to global change Zuo, Xinjuan China Hamburg University/IMPRS Climate and Economic Growth Students of the IMPRS on Earth System Modelling Name Country of origin Supported via PhD Research Criscuolo, Luca Italy MPI-BGC/Volkswagen Foundation Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors Cui, Xuefeng China MPG-GV/Chinese Academy of Sciences Simulation on Clouds over Namco Lake in Tibet with the model GESIMA Dang Hong, Hanh Vietnam HWWA/IMPRS Integrated mitigation and adaptation strategies as instruments of international climate policy Devasthale, Abhay India Hamburg University/IMPRS Cloud Optical Properties from EOS-MODIS Measurements Gaslikowa, Lidia Russia GKSS/IMPRS Assessment of scenario impact on matter transporting and wave parameters at the coastal zone Grossmann, Iris Germany GKSS/IMPRS Scenarios for the Lower Elbe region with particular emphasis on changes in the environment-economy-interrelationship Gugliemo, Francesca Italy Using a GCM to investigate the multicompartmental fate of toxic organics Hoelzemann, Judith Germany MPI-M Modelling of global agricultural systems under scenarios of climate and land use change and its impacts on carbon cycle and economic factors Jung, Martina Germany MPG-GV/IMPRS Implications for climate change of the integration of forest sinks in international climate policy Kloster, Sivia Germany MPI-M/BMBF The role of biogenic sulphur species in the climate system Kotlarski, Sven Germany MPI-M/BMBF regional water cycles / Baltex (running title) Link, Peter Michael Germany Hamburg University/BMBF Modelling the economic consequences of a change of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for fisheries in the North Atlantic region Nayaran, Caroline Fijii Investigation of the changes in carbon dioxide fluxes and concentrations in the European region represented by various models MPI-M/IMPRS ZEIT Foundation/IMPRS Sven, Susanne Yuan, Iris Diana Jessic a Kerstin Patrick, Lidia Judith, Caroline, Silvia Swagata, Miren, Katja, Swagata Abhay, Phillip, Stephen Elke, Luca Hanh Gabriela, Francesca Michael 6. Issues and Challenges Issues and Challenges (1) The Institute has been in a too long transition (1998-2003). The freeze in the hiring of permanent positions in the last 5 years has been damaging to the Institute (about 80% of the scientific staff is on soft-money with insufficient supervision and mentoring) The lack of computer upgrade (1997-2002) has delayed progress, and specifically the release of the new community models. Evolution of Computing Power at DKRZ Peak Performance of Supercomputers at DKRZ [GFlops] 10000 Phase 3 HLRE - Phase 2 Phase 1 1000 100 (NEC SX4/8) NEC SX4/16 Cray C90 10 Cray-YMP Cray-2S 1 Cyber 205 0,1 84 86 88 90 92 94 Year 96 98 100 102 104 106 Issues and Challenges (2) The lack of perspectives for junior scientists lowers staff morale (5-year and 12-year rules). The need for permanently supported computer engineers in an institute that develops community models. The lack of a clear overhead system has negative impacts on the management of the Institute. The financial problems of the Max Planck Society and their impact on the research 7. Vision for the Future Values for the Institute Scientific excellence and high productivity Integration of research efforts with educational/outreach initiatives Development of human capital Increase in staff diversity, including the proportion of women Broadening of traditional approaches towards integrative and interdisciplinary methodologies Maintain strong internal and external communication, using modern technologies Leadership Through the development, documentation and the dissemination of community models ECHAM, MPI-OM, REMO, Mozart, etc. Through the coordination of large scientific projects Earlinet, PRISM, Baltex, PARTS, RETRO, etc. Through the organization if community conferences and workshops Earth System Conference, Workshop on dynamical cores and on convection in climate models Where should the Institute be in 5 years from now ? A new Director for the “Physical Climate” Division The 5 vacant MPG positions filled with outstanding scientists covering new aspects A joint research program with Jena, Mainz and Potsdam supported by MPG. The implementation of a “Climate Service” providing quasi-operational climate prediction and regrouping DKRZ and the M&D group Where should the Institute be in 5 years from now ? A new generation of supercomputer in place (European initiative?) A redefined direction for the “Atmospheric Process” Division (retirement of H. Grassl) A second phase of the IMPRS The release of the first version of the Integrated Earth System Model (global and regional components) 8. Scientific Presentations Today’s Presentations 1. Examples of Integrated Research Activities: H. Grassl 2. Illustrations of Scientific Activities: Large Eddy Simulations: A. Chlond Global Climate Modeling: M. Latif Regional Climate Modeling: D. Jacob Atmospheric Structure from Lidar and Radar: J. Bösenberg Atmospheric Chemistry: M. Schultz Upper and Middle Atmosphere Modeling: M. Giorgetta The END