Download Recent worldwide CO2 emissions - Digging in the Clay

The Futility of reducing Man-made CO2
as the means to Control Climate
Ed Hoskins MA (Cantab) BDS (Lond)
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
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Global Warming / Climate Change /
Global Climate Disruption
With this nomenclature any adverse weather event
can be ascribed to “Climate Change” and thus be
blamed on Man-kind. So the Climate Change Alarmists
can now back every horse whichever way it runs.
Nonetheless all their policy recommendations are only
ever intended to control excessive Global Overheating
by the reduction of Man-made CO2 emissions.
This is the BLINDING PARADOX of the
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming
position.
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
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Contents
 Recent of worldwide CO2 emissions
 Modelling the scale of future emissions till 2100
 Assessing the Actual Temperature effect of Manmade CO2
 But the effect of CO2 as a Greenhouse gas becomes
ever more marginal with greater concentration
 Actual temperature effects
 Justifying actions to reduce CO2 emissions,
particularly in Europe / UK / Australia.
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Recent worldwide CO2 emissions
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
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In October 2010 Professor Richard Muller made
the dilemma for all those who hope to control
global warming clear. In essence he said:
“The Developing World is Not Joining-in with
CO2 emission reductions nor does it have any
intention of doing so.
The failure of worldwide action negates the
unilateral action of any individual Nation”.
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The current status 2010:
Nations grouped according to CO2 emissions policies
emissions 2010 % population 2010
Legally committed
Not Joining-in
EU (27) AU NZ
United States
RU JP CA
China
India
KR IR ZA
MX SA BR ID
Rest of World
(200+ Nations)
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
13.6%
18.5%
13.5%
25.1%
5.1%
7.6%
4.5%
4.4%
19.3%
17.5%
10.9%
10.7%
13.2%
36.0%
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The graph shows:
• the rapid escalation of Chinese emissions since
the year 2000, this continues apace.
• acceleration of emissions from India, which are
set to grow substantially albeit from a low base.
• the inexorable growth of emissions from
developing economies growing from a low base
in 1965.
• a levelling off of developed economies but with
an uptick in 2010 recovering from recession.
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The growth of emissions from developing
countries including China, India and other
underdeveloped Nations continues.
China is predominant and India is following on,
probably at a greater future rate but to a lesser
absolute extent by 2100.
These increases in emissions will totally negate
any efforts, however strenuous, in the
Developed World, where emissions have
significantly stabilised already, even in the USA.
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The effect of the maximum actions on CO2 emissions.
Comparing the current emission rates with the IPCC
stated temperature rise from added emissions of 1.2°C
by 2100, (1.8°C business as usual “Scenario B1” versus
0.6°C if all world-wide emissions had stopped in 2000):
• only ~14% of the worlds current 2010 emissions
(EU (27) AU NZ), are making any progress = ~ -0.168°C
• the maximum they might achieve is a 30% emissions
reduction = ~ -0.0504°C
• The UK contributes only 11% of the emissions in this
group amounting to ~ -0.00554°C by 2100.
• Australia contributes even less and its actions might
amount to ~ -0.00355°C by 2100.
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So adherent Nations have isolated themselves by their
own self-immolating actions on the basis that it is
their duty to set an example for the world.
However their actions alone can only ever give virtually
undetectable reductions of World temperature,
and the rest of the world is not listening.
So the hysteria about catastrophic global warming is
the creature of a limited number of developed Western
Nations, whose Governments are persuaded by the
Catastrophic Global Warming / Climate Change /
Climate Disruption agenda.
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Any effort at CO2 reduction by the few Joining-in
and participating Nations is therefore folly.
The sooner this is realised, in spite of the huge
academic and monetary capital already invested,
the sooner the Western world can be released
from its self-imposed, economically destructive
straightjacket.
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Modelling future CO2 emissions: assessing
future emissions growth by Nation groups.
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estimated emissions
estimated %
estimated %
multiplier by 2100 CO2 emissions 2100
population 2100
EU (27) AU NZ
1.0
5.4%
6.5%
United States
1.2
RU JP CA
1.3
China
4.5
India
10.0
KR IR ZA MX SA BR ID 4.0
Rest of World (200+ Nations) 5.0
8.5%
6.0%
30.5%
14.1%
14.0%
21.5%
3.8%
3.7%
18.7%
18.9%
9.3%
39.2%
(1.0 = Business as Usual)
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This speculative data set results in:
cumulative
re-absorbed values
m tonnes
m tonnes
ppmv
up to 1850
2,190,638
2,190,638
280
1850 – 2010
863,789
3,054,427
390
110
2010-2100
Business as Usual
1,336,653
4,391,080
560
170
2010-2100
extra emissions
1,476,685
5,867,765
750
190
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difference
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This estimated data set shows:
• China as a whole approaching the CA RU JP
emissions level by 2100, even with its substantially
larger population.
• India with a larger population approaches EU
levels and the major developing nations may well
surpass those levels.
• The rapidly developing Nations keep pace with
China, and overtake the no growth Joining-in
Nations.
• The rest of the developing world still lags behind
but is approaching the business as usual level of
the EU group of Nations taking action on CO2.
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The reality puts the participation of the Joining-in
Nations, EU (27) AU NZ, into stark perspective
showing the insignificance of their efforts to
reduce emissions in the context of the growth of
emissions from the developing world.
They reduce down from ~14% of world emissions
in 2010 to ~5% by 2100.
And of course if they do actually achieve any real
CO2 reductions that will diminish the significance
of their efforts even further.
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Assessing the Actual Temperature effect
of Man-made CO2
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The IPCC asserts that all the recorded warming
since 1850 (~0.7°C) and that it is wholly due to Manmade CO2.
But there is a wider range of published and peerreviewed opinion that differs on the actual level of
the impact of Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere.
One well-accepted view is provided by CDIAC, the
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre of the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
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CDIAC figures can be transposed into parts of the 33.0°C
total Greenhouse Effect, as follows:
Water Vapour ~95% of effect
~31.35°C
All Greenhouse Gases ~5%
~1.65°C
Carbon Dioxide at 390 ppmv ~75%
~1.24°C
Natural CO2 ~86%
~1.07°C
(50% emissions since 1850 Man-made)
Current Worldwide Man-made CO2
~14% of 390 ppmv
Other Greenhouse gases ~25%
Natural
Man-made
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
~0.17°C
~0.41°C
~0.29°C
~0.12°C
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The CDIAC value of ~0.17°C is about 25% of the rise since 1850,
equating to 50 / 50 Man-made / Natural CO2 and 50% due to
recent higher solar activity.
On the other hand, Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS, one of the
topmost scientists involved in the Catastrophic Anthropogenic
Global Warming cause, in a recent paper clearly asserts that:
• 75% of the Greenhouse effect is attributable to water
vapour and clouds
• 100% of the increase in CO2 emissions since 1850 (110 ppmv)
is Man-made
Following these numbers through and accounting for the effect
of other Greenhouse gases results in a Man-made temperature
rise between 1850 and 2010 of 2.21 °C.
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As the reported temperature increase since 1850 is only
~0.7°C in total, surely Schmidt’s assertion
has to be in error.
He clearly did not carry out the trivial sums that would
have shown him that his figures exaggerate Man-made
influence on temperature by more than 3 times the actual
accepted level of warming since 1850.
So Gavin Schmidt, a premier scientist supporting the
concept of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming,
markedly underestimates the influence of water vapour
and clouds.
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But the effect of CO2 as a Greenhouse gas is
ever more marginal with greater concentration
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Remarkably, IPCC Published reports, (TAR3), actually
acknowledge that the effective temperature increase
caused by growing concentrations of CO2 in the
atmosphere radically diminishes with increasing
concentrations.
This information is in their report, but it is well
disguised from any lay reader, (chapter 6. Radiative
Forcing of Climate Change: section 6.3.4 Total WellMixed Greenhouse Gas Forcing Estimate).
Even so the effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas
is well understood in the climate science community
to reduce logarithmically as concentrations increase,
according to the Beer Lambert Law.
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CO2 effectiveness as GHG
expressed as percentages
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CO2 effectiveness as GHG expressed in °C
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Although the IPCC accepts that this crucial effect
exists, the UN panel certainly does not emphasise it.
Like the Medieval Warm Period, that they tried to
eliminate with the Hockey Stick graph in 2001, the
panel knows that wide public knowledge of this fact
would be utterly detrimental to their primary message.
The logarithmic diminution effect of CO2 as a GHG is
the reason why there was no runaway greenhouse
warming in earlier eons, when CO2 levels were known
to be at levels of several 1,000s pmmv.
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So the IPCC does not explain the devastating
consequences of the logarithmic diminution effect
in their Summary for Policy Makers.
Thus the IPCC is entirely misleading in its central
claim for Policy Makers, when they say:
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
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Thus any, unquestioning, policy making reader is
unequivocally lead to assume that all increasing CO2
concentrations are progressively more harmful
because of their escalating Greenhouse impact.
THIS IS NOT SO.
From the present concentration of atmospheric CO2
at ~390 ppmv, there is only ~12% of the effectiveness
of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas remaining, even if
emissions increase indefinitely.
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Even if CO2 emissions increase indefinitely from
the present position of a atmospheric CO2
concentration of ~390 ppmv, there can only be
~12% of the effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse
Gas remaining.
As the further effectiveness of CO2 is now limited
to only ~12%, the widely held alarmist policy
ambition to constrain Man-made temperature
increase to 2°C could never be attained, however
much more Man-made CO2 was emitted.
So that much vaunted policy ambition has to be
nonsense.
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Calculating actual temperature effects
accounting for the diminution in
effectiveness of CO2 with increasing
concentrations
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Accounting for the diminution effect the
actual temperature reductions achievable
by the actions of the Joining-in Nations
using the CDIAC estimates of temperature
effects are as follows
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
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These figures can be compared with the
IPCC version which ignores the diminution
effect shown below:
Futility of Man-made Climate Control by limiting CO2 emissions
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In either case the calculated achievable values are
in the range of few hundredths to a few
thousandths of a degree Centigrade.
As the margin of error for temperature
measurements is about 1⁰C, these miniscule levels
the temperature effects for the efforts of the
Joining-in nations are marginal, immeasurable and
irrelevant.
This is especially so as these minute changes have
to be seen in the context of normal daily
temperature variations at any a single location of
10⁰C to 20⁰C and which can usually be as much as
40⁰C to 50⁰C in the course of a whole year.
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The IPCC carefully ignores the radical reducing effect
of increasing concentrations of CO2 in its summaries
and does not admit that there remains only about 12%
of the effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas from
the current level of ~390ppmv, for whatever increase
in CO2 concentration.
So any unquestioning, policy maker has certainly been
lead to assume that all increasing CO2 concentrations
are progressively more harmful for temperature
increase because of their escalating Greenhouse
impact.
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Under the influence of the IPCC statements, much
has been made by policy makers that it is essential
to limit Man-made Global warming to less than 2°C.
However if the diminution effect is taken into
account, whichever assessment of likely
temperature increase from additional CO2 is used,
that additional 2°C could never be attained by any
Man-made additions of CO2 to the atmosphere
however large.
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The modelled increase of CO2
from 390 to 750 ppmv till a 2100 maximum
using the CDIAC estimate of gives a further
potential increase worldwide of only
~0.16°C and beyond that value only about
2%, a potential addition of only ~0.03°C
remains.
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Even if CO2 emissions increase indefinitely from
the present position of a atmospheric CO2
concentration of ~390 ppmv, there is only ~12% of
the effectiveness of CO2 as a Greenhouse Gas
remaining.
As the further effectiveness of CO2 is now limited
to only ~12%, the widely held alarmist / political
ambition to constrain Man-made temperature
increase to 2°C could never be attained, however
much more Man-made CO2 was emitted.
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Justifying actions to reduce CO2 emissions:
particularly in the EU(27) and Australia
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The question has to be asked as to whether the efforts
of the few Joining-in Nations
to set an example to the world
can ever be judged as worthwhile, considering the selfinflicted economic damage already occurring and
certainly planned in future.
This is all for the sake of reductions in World
temperature that are undetectable and immeasurable.
Or rather should their efforts at controlling CO2
emissions be regarded as the most pointless policy
ever contemplated by developed and previously
rational governments?
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The marginal effects of any action on reducing CO2
emission by a small minority of Nations must raise
the following question:
Is it possible that the massive efforts and
extreme costs already being expended and
planned and the immense risks to energy
security anticipated for the future could ever be
justified to partially reduce the Man-made CO2
emissions by a limited number of Western
Nations for miniscule and doubtful effects on
world temperature?
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Are controls on CO2 emissions a rational way
to save the World?
and
What precisely is the World being saved from?
a warmer world with higher levels of CO2
is probably a rather better, more
productive world, with longer growing
seasons and with less violent weather.
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And as the remedies proposed are so vast and so
onerous:
• Where are the full cost benefit analyses?
• Where is the open minded due diligence?
• Have participating governments robust
contingency plans for when their lights go out?
• Do they understand that the world has already
entered a period of natural cooling?
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The political justification is weak, just one example,
Jill Duggan, European Commission’s National
Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change and
ex head of Britain’s International Emissions Trading.
The competence and level of understanding of the
administrators driving the global warming alarm
became clear when she stated:
“she did not know what the costs of European
action on Carbon Dioxide were nor how much
effect European efforts would have on world
temperature.”
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Prof David MacKay author of Sustainable Energy
- without the hot air and now the Chief Scientific
Advisor to the UK Department of Energy and
Climate Change justifies UK action on CO2
saying:
“Well, that's "the tragedy of the commons. You
can always argue that it is fine for you to be
antisocial because you are just one person. But
there are other views of ethics, leadership,
pollution. London doesn't have smog any more,
and that's thanks to all 7 million people all
following the lead of whoever went first”.
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As the UK is still uniquely wedded to its costly
policies supporting unreliable and uneconomic
renewable energy via its 2008 Climate Change
Act, the outcome in the UK is an unacceptable
future for energy supply.
These policies are being pursued regardless of the
costs, their ineffectiveness and the massive risk
they cause to energy security, as can be seen in
the government published graph below.
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So the lights in the UK could go out any
winter soon, after the riots of August
2011 imagine the chaos that will ensue.
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Steve Holiday the Chief Executive of the National Grid has
already clearly said:
“Era of constant electricity at home is ending”.
This has to be seen as the ultimate triumph of the
Green movements. It is the retrograde step that
they have always yearned for.
But Mark Lynas, a formerly committed Green Activist said:
“Our environment and energy problems are solvable but can be tackled only with pragmatism, rather than
ideological wishful thinking. You mustn't believe the
lies of the Green zealots. I should know - I was one.”
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Even the Huffington Post has come to the following
realisation:
“Global leaders should give up their fixation on cutting
carbon dioxide emissions. Significant cuts will not happen
voluntarily anywhere. Instead, leaders should be
focusing on providing as much cheap, abundant,
dispatchable power to their citizens as possible. And to
make certain political leaders understand the need to
eradicate energy poverty. Like it or not, the world
economy runs on hydrocarbons … And that will remain
true for many decades to come. Countries like Vietnam,
China, and India, will never agree to any tax or limit on
carbon dioxide.”
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And George Osborne UK Chancellor of the Exchequer
seems to be beginning to appreciate the point:
“We're not going to save the planet by putting our
country out of business.”
Even the European union is having second thoughts:
"It has to be seen clearly that there are risks associated
to unilateral EU action. There is a trade-off between
climate-change policies and competitiveness. Europe
cannot act alone in an effort to achieve global
decarbonization,”
A classic and interesting comment was recently made in
The Register. It could not be put more succinctly:
“Binning green power would be like printing money without inflation”.
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