Download Current State of International Climate Negotiations

Climate negotiations post-Copenhagen
Can the UNFCCC deliver?
Mark Lutes
Global Climate Initiative, WWF International
Contact: [email protected]
Overview
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What needs to be done – the science
What happened in Copenhagen
Current status
Outlook for Cancun
Conclusions
UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (1992)
Objective:
“stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.”
What is “dangerous”?
Stabilization at what level?
What is “Dangerous” Climate
Change?
•Broad agreement that global average
temperature must stay below 2 ºC
warming from pre-industrial level;
EU, MEF, even Canada !?
•CAN (Climate Action Network): Temp
increase should stay as far as
possible below 2oC, and ASAP return
to below 1.5 degrees;
•AOSIS, many NGOs – below 1.5
degrees
NOTE: Temperature has already
increased 0.6oC over the last century,
and the GHGs already in the
atmosphere mean another 0.7oC rise.
So if all emissions stopped today,
temperature would increase 1.3oC
Den Elzen & Meinshausen,
Emission pathways to 2oC
target
Emissions
Pathways for
peaking at less
than 500ppm CO2
eq concentrations
then returning soon
to 400
KyotoPlus - Papers
“<2°C Trajectories – a Brief Background Note”
Malte Meinshausen
Process leading to Copenhagen
• 2-track negotiating process:
• Kyoto Protocol Track – reduction targets for 2nd commitment period (20132017 or beyond) for industrialized countries with targets under KP
• “Bali Action Plan” Track under Climate Convention (AWG-LCA) Commitments for US and developing country actions;
• 2 years of negotiations under Bali Action Plan, 4 years under Kyoto
Track – adequate time to reach agreement
• Low ambition for targets (aggregate 10-17% below 1990) in Kyoto track,
negotiations stalled for a year; weak finance and tech support on table
• Many interlinked issues under Convention Track:
• Comparability of US commitments with other developed countries under KP,
and differentiation between US and developed countries
• Role of carbon markets and links to targets in KP
• Arrangements for reporting and reviewing developing country actions
• How commitments and actions will be documented or “internationalized”
• Legal form of outcome – New protocol or only CoP decisions
What happened in Copenhagen?
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Huge public mobilization
More than 100 “Leaders”
Proliferation of negotiating texts
Near collapse of negotiations – due to immensely complex
set of issues, Process mismanagement, lack of ambition
• Negotiating texts under AWG-LCA and AWG-KP
• Copenhagen Accord
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Finance – fast-start ($10b/year) and long-term ($100b/year by 2020)
“international consultations and analysis”
“below” 2 degrees; review of adequacy in 2015, incl. 1.5 degrees
Mitigation actions/commitments – deadline by Jan 31
Where do Cph commitments
leave us?
Current situation in negotiations
• No improvement in ambition level – countries have
submitted targets and actions under Cph accord and aren’t
moving from them
• Domestic plans stalled in many countries – Aust., Canada,
US, EU (20->30%)
• No resolution of “legal form” issue –
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future of KP very much in doubt – Russia, Canada, Japan opposed, US out;
Binding treaty or CoP decisions or Copenhagen Accord;
Would binding treaty involve 1, 2, or 3 protocols?
• Uncertain mandate for Cancun, South Africa in 2011 and
beyond;
• Rio+ 20 and 2015 as potential fallback dates
Outlook for Cancun
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No Fair, Ambitious and Binding deal in Cancun
Expectations are perhaps too low
Need to build trust and confidence in process
Potential for “Cancun Package” consisting of:
• Finance – new fund, and financial governance system, and work on
sources (FTTs, bunker fuels, etc.)
• Adaptation framework, insurance mechanism and “loss and
damage”.
• Deforestation – global goal, safeguards, drivers
• Technology – Tech action plans, IPRs, institutions
• Mitigation –, loopholes, ZCAPS, LCAPS and mandate for
negotiations on new targets and actions by South Africa
• Agreement on Legal form of final agreement
• oo
Conclusions
• “FAB” global agreement through international negotiations
remains essential;
• Progress will be slow and end date uncertain;
• Much needs to be done at local and national levels to lay
the groundwork;
• International negotiating process will not be the driver for
increased ambition;
• Increased ambition and urgency must come from the
bottom up – driven by awareness of science and impacts,
as well as confidence in solutions
END
Scenarios for outcome from Copenhagen
• Ambitious, comprehensive and binding legal agreement in Copenhagen
that puts world on path to staying below 2 degrees – WWF’s public ask
• “Foundations” outcome, which is not as ambitious as we would like, but
builds the key elements of a global regime so that action and targets
can be quickly ramped up later
• Delay scenario, where legal text resolutions of key issues are delayed
until next year or even later, when prospects may not be better than
currently
• “Greenwash” scenario, where an agreement is announced that lacks
ambition or foundations for future action;
• Collapse, where key groups (e.g., G77 or Africa group) walk out in
protest at lack of progress, and no agreement is reached.
Extra slide: 10 steps to a successful
outcome
1.
Governments at Copenhagen need to create a legally binding framework with an amended Kyoto
Protocol and a new Copenhagen Protocol, which secures the survival of countries, cultures and
ecosystems and clears the way to the low carbon economy.
2. Global emissions peak before 2017 keeping overall warming well below the 2°C danger threshold,
going down to below 1.5°C as soon as possible.
3. Industrialized countries commit to reduce their emissions by 40% by 2020, compared to 1990 levels.
4. Developing countries agree to undertake significant action making emissions at least 30% lower than
Business-As-Usual by 2020.
5. Zero net greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation by 2020, taking into
account indigenous peoples’ and local communities' rights.
6. A framework for immediate adaptation action is set in place, especially for vulnerable countries and
ecosystems, including the provision of insurance and compensation.
7. Public finance in the order of US$160 billion per year is provided to developing countries for
adaptation and mitigation through innovative sources of finance.
8. Mechanisms are set up to strengthen technology transfer and technology cooperation on research,
development and dissemination of low-carbon and climate-resilient technologies.
9. A new institutional set-up under the UNFCCC allows for coordination, implementation and funding
allocation, in a transparent and democratic way, and incentivizes compliance.
10. Parties agree transparent and comparable standards for carbon markets, forests and land use,
mitigation efforts and inventories, and ways to limit international aviation and shipping emissions.