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Climate Change as a regional challenge:
the role of science
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research,
Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
22. October 2015, Bruxelles
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When I refer to “regions” I do not mean sub-entities of the nations of
the EU but areas, which are connected through similarities in terms of
vulnerability, concerns and interests. Example: The Southern Baltic Sea
region, or the low-lying coastal regions of the North Sea.
Decision makers in Hamburg have more in common with their colleagues
in Amsterdam than with their colleagues in Stuttgart.
Thus, this may be a field for the Committee of the Regions:
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Introduction
1. Non-avoided anthropogenic
climate change
2. Knowledge competition
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Non-avoided man-made climate changes
There is broad acceptance in the scientific community that
1) human activities, in particular but not only the emission of
greenhouse gases, causes a change of climate (=
statistics of weather)
2) the more GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, the larger
the climatic changes become.
3) a limitation of man-made climate change can be achieved
by reducing emissions of GHGs. (Mitigation)
4) the more (and faster) climate changes, the bigger the
challenges to deal with the consequences of these
changes. Most of these consequences changes vary
regionally. (Adaptation)
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Non-avoided man-made climate changes
International politics has been agreed that
4) an unchecked increase of GHG emissions must be
avoided.
5) a limitation of the man-made climate change to a (mostly)
stable state at the end of the century with a maximum
increase of global mean air temperature of 2C would
constitute a sufficient (but also necessary) mitigation
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Non-avoided man-made climate changes
Even if the 2oC goal is reached, climatic changes will,
emerge, as they have done already.
If the 2oC goal is not reached, then bigger changes will
emerge.
These are the “non-avoided man-made climate
changes”. They require adaptation.
The question is not to do mitigation OR adaptation; the
question is how change can be avoided, and how much is
not avoided. In any case there is a need for adaptation.
Adaptation is mostly a regional if not a local issue.
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The knowledge market
Different perceptions
among scientists and the public
Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of
Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350
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The knowledge market
Climate Change: Constructions
• Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly
experience „climate change“.
(“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but
originating from an abstract context, which may be quite
divorced from day-to-day reality. )
• Different constructions prevail.
• One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of
observations and interpretation by theories.
• The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained
and transformed by the public media.
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge.
Env. Science Pol. 12, 741-747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.008
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Two different construction of „climate change“
– scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Temperature
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated
to some extent but not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
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The knowledge market
Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier
Post-normal Science:
State of science, when facts are uncertain, values in
dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent.
In this state,
- science is mostly not done for reasons of curiosity but is
asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas.
- scientific knowledge is merely one form of knowledge,
which competes on the „explanation marked“ with other
forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not
necessarily “win” this competition.
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The knowledge market
Climate science is taking place under post-normal
conditions (when interest-led utility is a significant driver,
and less so “normal” curiosity)
Results may appear favourable or unfavourable to the
climate scientist according to his/her value preferences.
The results constitute “ammunition” in a politically
antagonistic dispute about “climate policy”, in which
many scientists take side.
The conflict about the political issue of the climate
challenge is framed with scientific results being key to
the success of the own value-based agenda.
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The knowledge market
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear
model of „knowledge speaks to power“.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
• Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and
has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”.
• Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the
„explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific
knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.
• Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth)
advocates to the public has lead to fatigue.
• Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public
trust.
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The knowledge market
Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly
interlink directly with climate scientists
How strongly do you employ the
following sources of information,
for deciding about issues related
to climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea
coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
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Another challenge:
Physicists‘ linear thinking
The knowledge market
For many natural
scientists, a scientific
analysis with scientific
valid conclusions is
sufficient for deriving a
policy/management
agenda for dealing with
societal problems
related to climate
issues.
This concept is called
the „linear model“.
(Hasselmann, 1990)
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The knowledge market
The linear model has been found being inadequate for describing or even guiding
societal decisions processes.
Instead, competing factors, such as other environmental and socioeconomic
change, competing knowledge claims and value-preferences have to be taken into
account.
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Regional and local climate
service – on adaptation
1. Dialogue platforms
2. Data provision
3. Knowledge assessment reports
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Regional climate service
The Institute of Coastal Research (IfK) of HZG was confronted with
knowledge needs on the side of decision takers (administration,
companies) and the regional public – concerning coastal climate issues
(mostly storm surges, storms, waves). We noticed that our „clients“ did
not understand our answers, and that we did not have the capacity to
answer their questions.
• Knowledge is capacity to understand and act, not access to
information.
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model
of demand & supply. The „empty vessel“-model of knowledge transfer
is flawed.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is competing on an
„explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific(ally
constructed) knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.
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As a consequence, we built a cooperation with social scientists, set up
the dialogue platform „Norddeutsches Klimabüro“ in 2006, established
Mini-IPCC reports for mapping the available scientifically legitimate
knowledge about regional climate, and developed suitable information
provision systems.
The goal is to establish a dialogue between regional stakeholders and
research at the Institute of Coastal Research
- so that scientists understand what the knowledge and information needs
on the side of stakeholders are – in particular the extent of how these
needs are conditioned by alternative knowledge claims.
- so that stakeholders understand the limits and the partly preliminary
character of scientific understanding anout climate change and impacts –
in particular the issues of timing, uncertainty, multiple drivers, scientific
claims making (by interest led social actors).
Thus, climate research shall be enabled to deal with practically relevant
issues, while decision makers should recognize the limits and fragility of
scientific understanding.
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Regional climate service
Norddeutsches Klimabüro
An institution set up to enable communication between science and
stakeholders
• that is: making sure that science understands the questions and
concerns of a variety of stakeholders
• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific
assessments and their limits.
Recognition and analysis of
• post-normal situation (politicization of issues),
• alternative knowledge claims,
• other drivers also changing environmental conditions
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Regional climate service
1. Analysis of cultural construct, including
common exaggeration in the media.
- Determination of response options on the local
and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also
regional and local mitigation.
- Dialogue of stakeholders and
climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“.
2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues
(climate consensus reports).
3. Description of recent and present changes.
4 Projection of possible future changes, which are
dynamically consistent and possible
(„scenarios“)
Determining social reality:
Regional climate service
the confusion about „Projections and predictions“
The IPCC provides the following operational definitions :
“A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or
climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the
actual evolution of the climate in the future …”
But in practice these terms are mixed up.
Bray and von Storch (2009) find that
• about 29% of climate scientists call
“most probable developments”
projections,
• while about 20% “possible
developments” are labeled “predictions”.
Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'?
The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30, 534-543
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Regional climate service
Determining social reality:
the coastal flooding myth
Flooding of North Sea coast
after 5 m sea level rise
– if there would be no coastal
defense!
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Determining social reality:
the reflex-like attribution „climate change“
Regional climate service
Hamburg – storm surges
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Determining social reality:
the reflex-like attribution „climate change“
Regional climate service
Difference between peak heights of storm
surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated
storm surges in Hamburg is the
modification of the river Elbe –
(coastal defense and shipping
channel deepening) and less so
because of changing storms or
sea level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives
and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44
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North Sea
Sketching scenarios
of innovative developments
Island
Wadden Sea
Polders
Marsch
Hauptdeich
Überflutbarer Deich
Eingedeichte Marsch
Überflutbare Marsch
Brack- und Süßwasser
Kompaktsiedlung
Wohnhügel (Warft/Wurt)
Hausboot
Karsten Reise, pers. comm.
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Assessing climate
knowledge
Tools for regional climate servicing
climate con/dis-sensus reports
Assessments of knowledge about regional climate
change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change
and possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
- documentation of contested and open issues.
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008,
BACC 2 in May 2015
+ Hamburg region (published November 2010)
+ North Sea (in final phase)
Full reports and condensed reports for general
public.
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von
Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for
the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer.
Geophys. U., 161-162
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Robust data sets
www.coastdat.de
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and
coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and
currents and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and
offshore conditions
• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and
coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and
operations) and opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives
and options of change
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Some applications of
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil
pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Currents Power [W/m2]
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Tools for regional climate servicing
Klimaatlas / atlas klimatu
http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.pl
http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de




Raw data from 12 regional climate projections
Analyzed for Northern Germany and Pomeranian Bight
Interactive user interface
Similar system adapted by German Weather System
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Presence pointing to the
future?
Observed and projected temperature
trends in the Baltic Sea Region (1982-2011)
Observed CRU, EOBS (1982-2011)
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations (ENSEMBLES)
 DJF and MAM changes can be explained by dominantly GHG driven scenarios
 None of the 10 RCM climate projections capture the observed annual and seasonal
warming in summer (JJA) and autumn (SON).
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Precipitation trends in the Baltic Sea Region (1979-2008)
Observed (CRU3, GPCC6, GPCP)
Projected GS signal (ENSEMBLES)
In winter (DJF) none of the 59
segments derived from 2,000
year paleo-simulations yield a
positive trend of precipitation as
strong as that observed. There
is less than 5% probability that
observed positive trends in
winter be due to natural (internal
+ external) variability alone (with
less than 5% risk).
In spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and Annual trends externally forced changes are not
detectable. However observed trends lie within the range of changes described by 10
climate change scenarios, indicating that also in the scenarios a systematic trend reflecting
external forcing is not detectable (< 5% risk).
In autumn (SON) the observed negative trends of precipitation contradicts the upward
trends suggested by 10 climate change scenarios, irrespective of the observed dataset
used.
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Solar surface radiation in the Baltic Sea Region, 1984-2005
Observed 1984-2005 (MFG Satellites)
Projected GS signal (ENSEMBLES)
1880-2004 development of sulphur dioxide
emissions in Europe (Unit: Tg SO2). (after Vestreng
et al., 2007 in BACC-2 report, Sec 6.3 by HC
Hansson
 A possible candidate to explain the observed deviations of the
trends in summer and autumn, which are not captured by 10 RCMs,
is the effect of changing regional aerosol loads
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Conclusion
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Norddeutsches Klimabüro:
activities and main clients
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Advise for adapating to increasing risks of storm surges
at the German North Sea coast
a) Sea level, and storm surges, will rise; the extent is very uncertain.
b) Until 2040, or so, coastal defense with present planning levels is sufficient
c) After 2040, coastal defense may become insufficient.
d) Suggestions for near future
- improve technology (e.g., overflow)
- monitor ongoing change
- plan for organizational measures to deal with enhanced risk, and involve
population in participatory efforts
- do all coastal defense modernization so that future additional fortifications are
possible
- be prepared to implement decisions in 20 years
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate change is a „constructed“ issue.
Different constructions interact and compete.
One class of constructions is scientific.
Another class of constructions is cultural, in particular maintained
and transformed by the media and the Zeitgeist.
Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes
along with politicizing science, and scientizing politics.
Public opinion and scientific understanding do not converge.
Climate science needs to reflect upon its role and function.
Precise language should be used, no more “the science is settled”,
no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when “projections” are
meant.
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• Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes
the establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media)
and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the
issue.
• Climate service must take into account competing alternative
knowledge claims.
• Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability –
building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling
out contested issues.
• Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous
clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed.
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