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Climate Change as a regional challenge: the role of science Hans von Storch Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany 22. October 2015, Bruxelles 1 When I refer to “regions” I do not mean sub-entities of the nations of the EU but areas, which are connected through similarities in terms of vulnerability, concerns and interests. Example: The Southern Baltic Sea region, or the low-lying coastal regions of the North Sea. Decision makers in Hamburg have more in common with their colleagues in Amsterdam than with their colleagues in Stuttgart. Thus, this may be a field for the Committee of the Regions: 2 Introduction 1. Non-avoided anthropogenic climate change 2. Knowledge competition 3 Non-avoided man-made climate changes There is broad acceptance in the scientific community that 1) human activities, in particular but not only the emission of greenhouse gases, causes a change of climate (= statistics of weather) 2) the more GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, the larger the climatic changes become. 3) a limitation of man-made climate change can be achieved by reducing emissions of GHGs. (Mitigation) 4) the more (and faster) climate changes, the bigger the challenges to deal with the consequences of these changes. Most of these consequences changes vary regionally. (Adaptation) 4 Non-avoided man-made climate changes International politics has been agreed that 4) an unchecked increase of GHG emissions must be avoided. 5) a limitation of the man-made climate change to a (mostly) stable state at the end of the century with a maximum increase of global mean air temperature of 2C would constitute a sufficient (but also necessary) mitigation 5 Non-avoided man-made climate changes Even if the 2oC goal is reached, climatic changes will, emerge, as they have done already. If the 2oC goal is not reached, then bigger changes will emerge. These are the “non-avoided man-made climate changes”. They require adaptation. The question is not to do mitigation OR adaptation; the question is how change can be avoided, and how much is not avoided. In any case there is a need for adaptation. Adaptation is mostly a regional if not a local issue. 6 The knowledge market Different perceptions among scientists and the public Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8 Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350 7 The knowledge market Climate Change: Constructions • Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. (“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but originating from an abstract context, which may be quite divorced from day-to-day reality. ) • Different constructions prevail. • One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. • The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12, 741-747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.008 8 Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Temperature Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Lund and Stockholm Storms 9 The knowledge market Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier Post-normal Science: State of science, when facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent. In this state, - science is mostly not done for reasons of curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas. - scientific knowledge is merely one form of knowledge, which competes on the „explanation marked“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. 10 The knowledge market Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions (when interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity) Results may appear favourable or unfavourable to the climate scientist according to his/her value preferences. The results constitute “ammunition” in a politically antagonistic dispute about “climate policy”, in which many scientists take side. The conflict about the political issue of the climate challenge is framed with scientific results being key to the success of the own value-based agenda. 11 12 13 The knowledge market • The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. • The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. • Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. • Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions. • The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. • Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue. • Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. 14 The knowledge market Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation? Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions. Bray, 2011, pers. comm. 15 Another challenge: Physicists‘ linear thinking The knowledge market For many natural scientists, a scientific analysis with scientific valid conclusions is sufficient for deriving a policy/management agenda for dealing with societal problems related to climate issues. This concept is called the „linear model“. (Hasselmann, 1990) 16 The knowledge market The linear model has been found being inadequate for describing or even guiding societal decisions processes. Instead, competing factors, such as other environmental and socioeconomic change, competing knowledge claims and value-preferences have to be taken into account. 17 Regional and local climate service – on adaptation 1. Dialogue platforms 2. Data provision 3. Knowledge assessment reports 18 Regional climate service The Institute of Coastal Research (IfK) of HZG was confronted with knowledge needs on the side of decision takers (administration, companies) and the regional public – concerning coastal climate issues (mostly storm surges, storms, waves). We noticed that our „clients“ did not understand our answers, and that we did not have the capacity to answer their questions. • Knowledge is capacity to understand and act, not access to information. • The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of demand & supply. The „empty vessel“-model of knowledge transfer is flawed. • The problem is that the scientific knowledge is competing on an „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific(ally constructed) knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. 19 As a consequence, we built a cooperation with social scientists, set up the dialogue platform „Norddeutsches Klimabüro“ in 2006, established Mini-IPCC reports for mapping the available scientifically legitimate knowledge about regional climate, and developed suitable information provision systems. The goal is to establish a dialogue between regional stakeholders and research at the Institute of Coastal Research - so that scientists understand what the knowledge and information needs on the side of stakeholders are – in particular the extent of how these needs are conditioned by alternative knowledge claims. - so that stakeholders understand the limits and the partly preliminary character of scientific understanding anout climate change and impacts – in particular the issues of timing, uncertainty, multiple drivers, scientific claims making (by interest led social actors). Thus, climate research shall be enabled to deal with practically relevant issues, while decision makers should recognize the limits and fragility of scientific understanding. 20 Regional climate service Norddeutsches Klimabüro An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders • that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders • that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Recognition and analysis of • post-normal situation (politicization of issues), • alternative knowledge claims, • other drivers also changing environmental conditions 21 Regional climate service 1. Analysis of cultural construct, including common exaggeration in the media. - Determination of response options on the local and regional scale: mainly adaptation but also regional and local mitigation. - Dialogue of stakeholders and climate knowledge brokers in „Klimabureaus“. 2. Analysis of consensus on relevant issues (climate consensus reports). 3. Description of recent and present changes. 4 Projection of possible future changes, which are dynamically consistent and possible („scenarios“) Determining social reality: Regional climate service the confusion about „Projections and predictions“ The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future …” But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that • about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections, • while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”. Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30, 534-543 23 Regional climate service Determining social reality: the coastal flooding myth Flooding of North Sea coast after 5 m sea level rise – if there would be no coastal defense! 24 Determining social reality: the reflex-like attribution „climate change“ Regional climate service Hamburg – storm surges 25 Determining social reality: the reflex-like attribution „climate change“ Regional climate service Difference between peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level. von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44 26 North Sea Sketching scenarios of innovative developments Island Wadden Sea Polders Marsch Hauptdeich Überflutbarer Deich Eingedeichte Marsch Überflutbare Marsch Brack- und Süßwasser Kompaktsiedlung Wohnhügel (Warft/Wurt) Hausboot Karsten Reise, pers. comm. 27 Assessing climate knowledge Tools for regional climate servicing climate con/dis-sensus reports Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested and open issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, BACC 2 in May 2015 + Hamburg region (published November 2010) + North Sea (in final phase) Full reports and condensed reports for general public. Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U., 161-162 29 Robust data sets www.coastdat.de The CoastDat data set: GKSS in Geesthacht • Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe • Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions • extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea Clients: • Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic • Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) • General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change 31 Some applications of - Ship design - Navigational safety - Offshore wind - Interpretation of measurements - Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution - Ocean energy - Scenarios of storm surge conditions - Scenarios of future wave conditions Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m2] 32 Tools for regional climate servicing Klimaatlas / atlas klimatu http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.pl http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de Raw data from 12 regional climate projections Analyzed for Northern Germany and Pomeranian Bight Interactive user interface Similar system adapted by German Weather System 33 Presence pointing to the future? Observed and projected temperature trends in the Baltic Sea Region (1982-2011) Observed CRU, EOBS (1982-2011) Projected GS signal, A1B scenario 10 simulations (ENSEMBLES) DJF and MAM changes can be explained by dominantly GHG driven scenarios None of the 10 RCM climate projections capture the observed annual and seasonal warming in summer (JJA) and autumn (SON). 35 Precipitation trends in the Baltic Sea Region (1979-2008) Observed (CRU3, GPCC6, GPCP) Projected GS signal (ENSEMBLES) In winter (DJF) none of the 59 segments derived from 2,000 year paleo-simulations yield a positive trend of precipitation as strong as that observed. There is less than 5% probability that observed positive trends in winter be due to natural (internal + external) variability alone (with less than 5% risk). In spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and Annual trends externally forced changes are not detectable. However observed trends lie within the range of changes described by 10 climate change scenarios, indicating that also in the scenarios a systematic trend reflecting external forcing is not detectable (< 5% risk). In autumn (SON) the observed negative trends of precipitation contradicts the upward trends suggested by 10 climate change scenarios, irrespective of the observed dataset used. 36 Solar surface radiation in the Baltic Sea Region, 1984-2005 Observed 1984-2005 (MFG Satellites) Projected GS signal (ENSEMBLES) 1880-2004 development of sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe (Unit: Tg SO2). (after Vestreng et al., 2007 in BACC-2 report, Sec 6.3 by HC Hansson A possible candidate to explain the observed deviations of the trends in summer and autumn, which are not captured by 10 RCMs, is the effect of changing regional aerosol loads 37 37 Conclusion 38 Norddeutsches Klimabüro: activities and main clients 39 Advise for adapating to increasing risks of storm surges at the German North Sea coast a) Sea level, and storm surges, will rise; the extent is very uncertain. b) Until 2040, or so, coastal defense with present planning levels is sufficient c) After 2040, coastal defense may become insufficient. d) Suggestions for near future - improve technology (e.g., overflow) - monitor ongoing change - plan for organizational measures to deal with enhanced risk, and involve population in participatory efforts - do all coastal defense modernization so that future additional fortifications are possible - be prepared to implement decisions in 20 years 40 • • • • • • • • Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. Different constructions interact and compete. One class of constructions is scientific. Another class of constructions is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the media and the Zeitgeist. Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Public opinion and scientific understanding do not converge. Climate science needs to reflect upon its role and function. Precise language should be used, no more “the science is settled”, no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when “projections” are meant. 41 • Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media) and stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue. • Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims. • Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues. • Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed. 42