Download Adapting to Climate Change in Tasmania

Adapting
to Climate
Change in
Tasmania
Issues paper
October 2012
www.climatechange.tas.gov.au
Adapting to Climate Change in Tasmania Issues Paper
© Government of Tasmania
Tasmanian Climate Change Office
Excerpts from this publication may be reproduced with
appropriate acknowledgement, as permitted under the
Copyright Act 1968.
Published October 2012
ISBN 978-0-7246-5653-7
Table of contents
message from the minister
1
about the paper
2
section one: adaptation and the changing climate
3
Your feedback
5
section two: roles and responsibilities of the tasmanian government in climate change adaptation
6
Your feedback
7
section three: adaptation priority areas
8
Adaptation Priority Area 1 – Human settlements and infrastructure
10
Your feedback
13
Adaptation Priority Area 2 – Natural systems
14
Your feedback
18
Adaptation Priority Area 3 – Water management
19
Your feedback
21
Adaptation Priority Area 4 – Industry sectors
24
Your feedback
26
Adaptation Priority Area 5 – Natural disasters
27
Your feedback
29
Adaptation Priority Area 6 – Human health and vulnerable communities
30
Your feedback
32
appendix
1 – predicted changes to tasmania’s climate
33
appendix
2 – actions recently completed or underway
36
3 – template for providing feedback on the adapting to climate change in tasmania
issues paper
appendix
41
Message from the Minister
1
Message from the Minister
There is no doubt that we are already
seeing and feeling the impacts of
climate change, and that we face more
profound changes in the coming decades.
The impact of these changes on the
Tasmanian landscape, our communities
and the local economy will be significant.
While there will be some major
challenges, I genuinely believe that, as
Tasmanians, we are a resilient island
community. We can adapt and we can
prosper in a low carbon economy.
While we must continue to accept the moral
responsibility to bring down our greenhouse gas
emissions for a safer climate, there is also an imperative
to prepare, plan and take action to adapt to the global
changes ahead.
Tasmania has demonstrated its leadership through
the Wedges Report on potential emissions’ reduction
opportunities, and in providing fine-scale, local level
scientific information through the internationally
recognised Climate Futures for Tasmania project. We can
see the future, now we must take the necessary next
steps and use this excellent information to future-proof
Tasmania to the best of our capacity.
It’s a matter of scientific record that as the Earth warms,
we will experience more extreme weather events –
rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and
runoff, more severe drought and intense bushfires, as well
sea level rise and ocean acidification. These changes will
challenge our way of life, from the ecosystem services
we depend upon for human health and wellbeing to the
infrastructure and industries we rely on to function as a
community. There will be increased emphasis on how our
emergency services are delivered and how well equipped
our public and community services are to respond.
None of this is cheery stuff, but nor are the challenges
we face insurmountable. Human beings are, after all, very
intelligent and adaptable animals! As a connected and
decent society, with plenty of innovative and practical
thinkers among us, Tasmania is well equipped to respond
to climate change.
As Tasmania’s island climate becomes milder and perhaps
a little less variable, there will be real opportunities for
us in agricultural production, sustainable industries and
urban design, along with tapping into the global tourism
market. To build greater resilience into our community
and economy, we’ll need to work together. We’ll need to
work hard and stay focussed on the task that will be at
hand for Tasmanians, for decades to come.
As Minister for Climate Change, I would like to hear your
ideas on how Tasmania can lead the way, on how we can
create the brightest possible future for our children and
grandchildren.
Your thoughts on the adaptation agenda will help to
shape our next Climate Action Plan. To be released
in 2013, the Plan will detail a clear set of priorities for
government action.
Together, we can help to shape the future in this, the
critical decade.
Warm regards
Cassy O’Connor MP
Minister for Climate Change
About the Paper
2
About the Paper
The purpose of this Issues Paper is
to seek input from business, industry,
community groups, natural resource
management bodies, technical experts,
and the general community about
the key issues, priorities, risks and
opportunities facing the State in
adapting to a changing climate.
The feedback received will inform the Tasmanian
Government’s approach to climate change adaptation
into the future, with a focus on specific actions for
inclusion in the 2020 Climate Action Plan to be released
in 2013.
The Paper describes the scientific and policy context,
then discusses a number of important issues and
priority areas for action in Tasmania to adapt to the
effects of climate change. Several questions are provided
at the end of each section as a prompt for comments,
but are not intended to limit the scope of feedback.
While the Paper focuses on adapting to climate change,
it will not be considered in isolation. A separate issues
paper focusing on climate change mitigation – that is, by
reducing greenhouse gas emissions – will be released
by the Tasmanian Government later in 2012. Tasmania’s
adaptation and mitigation actions will then be brought
together in the Climate Action Plan.
How to use this Paper
ƒƒ Water management
ƒƒ Industry sectors
ƒƒ Natural hazards
ƒƒ Human health and vulnerable communities
Some of these areas may not be relevant to all readers
of this Paper. Please read Sections 1 and 2, and then focus
on the areas for action that are relevant to you.
Your feedback
At the end of each section of the Paper questions are
provided to help generate your comments and ideas.
Please respond to the questions that are most relevant
to you, and if you have any views not covered by the
questions, please include those comments in your
feedback as well.
The questions at the end of each section are summarised
in the template attached to this Paper. Please use this
template to send us your feedback.
Submissions in response to this Paper will be made
publicly available. However, if you would like your
submission to remain confidential, please tick the box to
indicate this on the template provided.
We ask that feedback be provided to us by 5pm Friday,
16 November 2012, and forwarded to the Tasmanian
Climate Change Office:
By email to: [email protected] with the
subject: Adaptation Unit
OR
This Paper considers six areas where action to adapt
to climate change is likely to be needed as a priority.
These are:
ƒƒ Human settlements and infrastructure
ƒƒ Natural systems
By mail to:
Adaptation Unit, Tasmanian Climate Change Office
Department of Premier and Cabinet
GPO Box 123, Hobart TAS 7001
SECTION1: Adaptation and the Changing Climate
3
Adaptation and the changing climate
Research overwhelmingly indicates
that the earth is warming1. Global
warming is predicted to cause changes
to climate variables such as rainfall,
wind, evaporation, temperature and sea
level. These changes are also likely to
amplify other aspects of natural climate
variability and result in more frequent
extreme weather events in some areas2.
Changes to the Australian climate are expected
to expose some areas of the country to extreme
temperatures and more frequent drought. These water
shortages will pose serious challenges to the agricultural
sector and may threaten some vulnerable ecological
systems.
While Tasmania is expected to experience less severe
climate change impacts compared to other parts of
Australia (due to its temperate maritime climate),
it is important to recognise that these impacts will
have an effect. Further, the effects will be particularly
felt by socially, physically and economically vulnerable
communities who may not have the capacity or resources
to effectively adapt to climate change.
It is important to recognise that changes to the climate
will have effects on a global scale. It is likely that global
supply chains for commodities, such as food and oil, will
be impacted and these will be felt in Tasmania to some
extent. The focus of the Paper, however, is to seek your
feedback on the action that we can take locally to adapt
to the changes we will experience directly in the State.
1. IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, Solomon, S, Qin, D, Manning, M, Chen, Z, Marquis, M, Averyt KB,
Tignor M & Miller HL (eds),,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Grose MR, Barnes-Keoghan I, Corney SP, White CJ, Holz GK, Bennett JB, Gaynor
SM and Bindoff NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: general climate impacts
technical report, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre,
Hobart, Tasmania
Predicted changes to Tasmania’s
climate
To help us understand how climate change is likely to affect
Tasmania, the internationally regarded Climate Futures for
Tasmania project was undertaken by the Antarctic Climate
and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, based
at the University of Tasmania. This project modelled the
impact of changes to the Tasmanian climate from 1961 to
2100 and predicted the following major changes for the
State:
ƒƒ Annual average temperatures are projected to rise by
between 1.6°C and 2.9°C by 2100, with maximum and
minimum temperatures increasing by varying amounts,
depending on the region.
ƒƒ Rainfall patterns may change significantly from season
to season and from region to region, with more rain
expected on the coasts and less in central Tasmania.
Rainfall intensity and associated flooding may increase,
and there may be longer periods between rain events.
ƒƒ There are likely to be more hot summer days and
more heat waves relative to what we have previously
experienced.
ƒƒ East coast water temperatures are projected to increase
by up to 2 to 3°C by 2070 relative to 1990 levels.
ƒƒ By 2100, the sea level may have risen by as much as 76
cm relative to 2010 levels.
ƒƒ The incidence of frosts is expected to reduce
substantially.
Further information on predicted changes to Tasmania’s
climate can be found in Appendix 1.
SECTION1: Adaptation and the Changing Climate
Adapting to a changing climate
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), the leading international body for the
assessment of climate change, defines climate change
adaptation as:
adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates
harm or exploits beneficial opportunities3.
Essentially, adaptation refers to the strategies, decisions
or actions taken by individuals, communities, industries
and governments to moderate, cope with or take
advantage of climate change impacts. Given that the
impacts of climate change may vary significantly across
sectors and regions, and may be direct or indirect in
nature, adaptation is typically undertaken at the level of
the affected system, generally regional or local.
Examples of the different adaptive responses that could
be undertaken include:
ƒƒ structural/technological (eg, through building location
and materials);
ƒƒ behavioural (eg, altered recreational choices);
ƒƒ managerial (eg, adoption of different farm practices);
and
ƒƒ policy and governance (eg, through strategic
land use planning and statutory planning
regulation)4.
Other stressors on the community, such as poverty
or pollution, can also increase vulnerability to climate
change. For example, efforts to meet the demands of
more immediate issues, such as finding accommodation
can reduce resilience and adaptive capacity5.
4
The benefits of adapting to climate change also need
to be considered with multiple outcomes in mind, as in
some instances there may be conflicts or trade-offs. For
example, building a dam to increase water storage security
and availability may be detrimental to natural systems
adaptation if the dam is proposed for sensitive or priority
conservation areas.
Studies have shown that in some sectors of the economy,
adaptation actions can lead to high benefit to cost
ratios and/or be implemented at low cost. For example,
behavioural adaptations such as using water more
efficiently can be implemented at low cost, but can have
a high benefit in areas with low water supply issues. In
contrast, there are also many adaptation actions that
inevitably involve costly infrastructure measures, such
as construction of water storage reservoirs or coastal
protection works like sea walls6. Timely, appropriate action
to manage climate change can significantly reduce the
potential costs and lost opportunities7.
Adapting to climate change needs to involve all levels of
government, businesses, households and the community,
and needs to be considered by all these parties when
making decisions or planning projects. As a general
principle, those who bear a particular risk and benefit from
taking action on that risk are often in the best position
to plan for and manage it (with the exception of the
more vulnerable sectors of the community). Accordingly,
supporting local groups, communities and the private
sector to take action will be important for Tasmania to
successfully adapt to a changing climate. A further benefit
of encouraging and supporting action by the private sector
and the community is that private action is primarily market
driven. This means that action will be taken where the
benefits, whether economical, promotional or otherwise,
outweigh the costs of not taking action.
3. IPCC TAR 2001, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability,
IPCC Third Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press.
6. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 2009, Economic aspects
of adaptation to climate change – costs, benefits and policy instruments.
4. IPCC 2007, ‘Summary for policymakers’, in Climate change 2007: impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry,
ML, Canziani, OF, Palutikof, JP, van der Linden, PJ, & Hanson, CE, (eds), pp. 7–22,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf
7. Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency 2011, Barriers to effective
climate change adaptation – a submission to the Productivity Commission.
5. IPCC 2007, ‘Summary for policymakers’, in Climate change 2007: impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry,
ML, Canziani, OF, Palutikof, JP, van der Linden, PJ, & Hanson, CE, (eds), pp. 7–22,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf
SECTION1: Adaptation and the Changing Climate
For Tasmania to successfully adapt to climate change,
it is important to consider the impact of those actions
and to avoid maladaptation. Maladaptation could occur
where actions to adapt to climate change have negative
or unintended consequences. Such consequences
could include contributing to an increase greenhouse
gas emissions, a disproportionate burden on the most
vulnerable, or actions that have high opportunity
costs, reduce incentives to adapt, or set paths that
limit the choices available to future generations8.
Commencing action without sufficient information is a
common cause of maladaptation. Initiating action with
insufficient information can set a path for action and/
or expectation, making it difficult to change approach
regardless of new or changed information or needs.
5
?
Q1.
ƒƒ under what circumstances do we need to take action
to adapt to climate change? and
ƒƒ the timing of that action – how quickly is that
action needed?
8. Barnett, J, O’Neill, S, 2010, ‘Maladaptation’, Global Environmental Change, vol.
20 pp. 211–213
Have you noticed changes in the climate? Are
you concerned that the projected changes to
the Tasmanian climate are likely to impact on
your local and regional community, industry,
natural or built environment?
If yes:
ƒƒ what activities/industries will be
affected?
ƒƒ what actions to adapt to climate
change could be taken to lessen any
negative impacts?
ƒƒ are any of these changes likely to be
positive?
ƒƒ over what timeframe is the action
required?
ƒƒ what types of costs would be
involved? Would the proposed actions
be cost effective?
Key questions for establishing adaptation priorities
include:
A meaningful discussion between the government,
businesses, households and the community and
collaborative planning need to begin now if we
are to ensure that Tasmanian communities, local
economies and the environment are not exposed to
unmanageable risks as a result of the changing climate.
Your feedback
Q2.
What kind of information would assist your
community or local industries to adapt to the
challenges arising from the projected climate
changes?
Q3.
Other than information, what other types of
support, assistance or activities would help
build resilience in communities and industries to
adapt to the impacts of the changing climate?
Q4.
Could projected changes to the climate provide
opportunities for your community, local industry
or Tasmania more generally?
If yes:
ƒƒ what are these opportunities?
ƒƒ how can we make the most of these
opportunities?
SECTION 2: Roles and responsibilities of the Tasmanian Government in climate change adaptation
Roles and responsibilities of the Tasmanian
Government in climate change adaptation
The Tasmanian Government has an
important role to play in setting policy
directions and priorities for adapting to
climate change in the State.
1. Providing sound public
information at the regional and
local level
The Government’s adaptation response will be built into
the Climate Action Plan to be released in 2013 and will
be closely related to other key policy directions including
the Tasmanian Economic Development Plan, the Tasmanian
Infrastructure Strategy and land use management and
planning policies.
Effective adaptation to climate change will require
good quality information. In many instances, the market
alone will not deliver a suitable level of information
for effective adaptation. Therefore, governments need
to assist in providing and sharing information. The
Tasmanian Government provides a range of such
information including climate projections at the regional
and local level and non-climatic data such as situation
analysis for industry sectors and settlements, and risk
assessments for invasive species (ie, pests, weeds and
diseases).
The Government recognises that a coordinated and
collaborative approach across all affected/involved parties
will be required to effectively adapt to predicted changes
to the climate. This Paper identifies four key roles for the
Tasmanian Government in climate change adaptation:
1.providing sound public information at the
regional and local level;
2.taking climate change risks and opportunities into
account in public policy, planning and regulation;
3.managing climate change risks and impacts to
State-owned and managed infrastructure, assets
and services; and
4.assisting vulnerable communities to build climate
resilience and adaptive capacity.
In undertaking these roles, the Government’s adaptation
response will also be guided by two risk-based
considerations:
ƒƒ risks arising from climate change can be managed; and
ƒƒ people should not be subsidised for living in
hazardous areas, but some assistance to support
transition might be appropriate.
The Tasmanian Government also has a responsibility to
keep the community supported and informed through
the development of sound policies and advice.
2. Taking climate change risks
and opportunities into account
in public policy, planning and
regulation
The Tasmanian Government has responsibility for
setting climate change adaptation directions and
priorities for the State and working with the Australian
Government on national adaptation issues that affect
Tasmania. It also has a role in working collaboratively
with local government on strategic policy development
6
SECTION 2: Roles and responsibilities of the Tasmanian Government in climate change adaptation
on adaptation issues that affect the whole State and
its regions, and in supporting the implementation of
targeted programs and projects to adapt to climate
change.
The Tasmanian Government has an important role
in establishing the right conditions for businesses and
communities to effectively adapt to climate change. This
may include:
ƒƒ removing regulatory barriers that impede effective
and efficient adaptation;
ƒƒ promoting consistency in planning decisions;
ƒƒ undertaking broad-based reforms that strengthen
market price signals (discussed below);
ƒƒ reducing compliance costs or regulatory burdens on
businesses and the community; and
ƒƒ adapting existing policies to better consider climate
change projections.
3. Managing climate change risks
and impacts to State-owned and
managed infrastructure, assets and
services
4. Assisting vulnerable communities
to build climate resilience and
adaptive capacity
The impacts of climate change are not likely to be evenly
distributed and some communities may be more affected
than others. The Tasmanian Government has a role in
assisting socially, physically and economically vulnerable
communities that may not have the capacity or resources
to effectively adapt to climate change. Assistance will
need to be carefully targeted (where there is a clear
need) and monitored to ensure that they do not have
unintended consequences.
The Tasmanian Government will continue to work
with other levels of government, communities and
communities groups, and non-government organisations
to ensure vulnerable communities receive appropriate
assistance.
?
Q5.
The Tasmanian Government is responsible for providing
a range of public goods and services, including
emergency management, public health, safety measures
and natural resource management. It also owns and
manages a range of public assets such as public lands
and open spaces, reserves, natural resources, and
infrastructure including roads, hospitals and schools.
It is the Government’s responsibility to ensure climate
change impacts and risks are appropriately considered
in the planning and delivery of its services and the
stewardship of its assets. This will require consideration
of the predicted changes to the climate and an
understanding of the risks. It may also require additional
research and monitoring, so maintaining strong linkages
with research organisations and related institutions will
be important.
Your feedback
The Section above identifies four key roles for
the Tasmanian Government in climate change
adaptation.
ƒƒ Do you think these roles are clear and
appropriate?
ƒƒ Do you have any suggested additions or
deletions to the roles?
Q6.
Do you feel confident that the Tasmanian
Government roles and responsibilities presented
in this section can support actions to adapt to
climate change in your community, local industry or
Tasmania more generally? If not, why? What would
be a better approach?
7
SECTION 3: Adaption priority areas
8
Adaptation priority areas
This Paper identifies six adaptation
priority action areas for Tasmania.
These broadly align with the Council
of Australian Governments (COAG)
National Adaptation Priorities9.
This approach aims to help focus
feedback on the actions and research
needed to address the main risks and
opportunities of adapting to climate
change in Tasmania.
While the six adaptation priority areas will be discussed
separately in the Paper, it is important to recognise that
there are numerous overlaps and interactions across the
priority areas in relation to climate impacts and adaptation
responses. For example, critical adaptation issues relating
to water management also impact on the agriculture
industry through irrigation and alteration to natural systems.
Biosecurity risks associated with climate change also cut
across a number of priority areas, including agriculture,
human health and natural systems.
The links between these priority areas will need to be
considered when planning and implementing actions. It
will be important to consider where actions may lead to
benefits across multiple areas or alternatively benefit one
priority action area, but be detrimental to another.
The following sections of this Paper discuss the major
climate risks and opportunities facing Tasmania over the
next 30 to 100 years for each of the identified priority
areas.
Each section discusses the priority area in terms of:
ƒƒ Context
ƒƒ Climate risks and opportunities
ƒƒ Action so far by the Government – a summary of this
actions can also be found in Attachment 2
ƒƒ Future directions
ƒƒ Your feedback – questions that may be helpful when
providing your feedback
9. Select Council on Climate Change meeting communique – 4 May
2012, Canberra <http://climatechange.gov.au/en/government/initiatives/
sccc/20120504-communique.aspx>
SECTION 3: Adaption priority areas
1
Human settlements and infrastructure
2
Natural systems
3
Water management
4
Key industry sectors
5
Natural disasters
6
Human health and vulnerable
communities
Changing demand on critical infrastructure and
the predicted increase in sea levels are likely
to put pressure on human settlements and
infrastructure.
Tasmania’s diverse and unique terrestrial,
freshwater and marine plants and animals
are likely to be affected by changes to rainfall,
temperature and frequency of extreme weather
events in different regions. Environmental
services, such as water quality and storage, air
quality and soil retention, may also be affected in
some areas.
Water is a critical resource for Tasmania needed
for residential use, industry, agriculture, fire
safety, electricity generation and for the natural
environment. While Tasmania’s water resources
appear plentiful, they are distributed unevenly
across the State with a number of areas
experiencing limited water availability, resulting
in restrictions and shortages.
Many of Tasmania’s major industries such as
agriculture, aquaculture, forestry and tourism
are reliant on the natural environment. As a
result, these industries are potentially vulnerable
to predicted changes.
As a result of climate change, natural disasters
may become more frequent and severe, putting
pressure on emergency management resources.
Changes to the climate are likely to affect the
pattern, distribution and severity of risks in some
areas of public health. The impacts may not be
evenly distributed and some communities are
likely to be more affected than others.
9
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area one
1
Human settlements and infrastructure
Tasmania’s human settlements include
larger cities and towns, as well as our
smaller regional communities and villages.
Human settlements rely on important
physical infrastructure including transport,
communications, energy, water, wastewater,
emergency services and social infrastructure
(such as schools and hospitals). Many of
Tasmania’s residential, commercial, industrial
and recreational areas are increasingly
exposed to climate-related effects and their
associated risks.
Tasmania’s coastal regions are particularly important places
for human settlement, with the majority of the State’s
population centres and major industries located on, or near,
the coast. The rising number and value of coastal properties
exacerbates the risk to property owners of climate change
impacts now and in the future.
The vulnerability of human settlements and infrastructure
to climate change varies across the State. The degree of
vulnerability is dependent on many factors including the
severity of climate change impacts, the adaptive capacity
of the local community, and the location, age, design and
construction method of the physical infrastructure.
Climate change may also have adverse consequences
for places of past human settlement and current cultural
importance, such as significant Aboriginal and historic heritage
sites.
10
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area one
Climate risks and opportunities
Critical infrastructure
More frequent extreme events are likely to impact
critical infrastructure. For example, transport
infrastructure, such as roads and rail, may be damaged
or unusable as a result of extreme events, such as
localised flooding, which in turn impacts on the access
to settlements and economic productivity.
Roads networks may also be threatened by increasing
frequency of extreme hot days and increased
temperatures, which may damage bitumen. Higher
temperatures and more frequent heat waves may lead
to greater energy demand for cooling, increasing the
stress on energy distribution networks.
While essential infrastructure and services across
the State are vulnerable to the long-term impacts of
climate change, low-lying coastal settlements will be
particularly vulnerable now and over the medium to
long-term.
Coastal settlements
With 75 per cent of Tasmania’s population currently
living in coastal local government areas10, many
Tasmanian settlements are vulnerable to storm surge,
coastal erosion and sea level rise. Increases in the
frequency and extent of coastal flooding in those areas
will also occur when combined with storm surge and
high tide events11.
Rising sea levels can also cause significant erosion,
especially to soft sandy beaches. Around half of
Tasmania’s open coasts are sandy shores vulnerable
to significant erosion and many of these (such Roches
Beach in the Clarence municipality in southern
Tasmania) are already experiencing severe erosion.
Tasmania has an estimated 6 100 houses located within
110 metres of soft sandy shorelines12. Shorelines of
other waterways are also becoming more vulnerable,
particularly when the impacts of rising sea levels build
are accompanied by the effects of storm surge and
flooding.
10. Commonwealth of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Regional
population growth, Australia, 2010–11 <http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.
nsf/DetailsPage/3218.02010-11>
11. Department of Climate Change 2009, Climate change risks to Australia’s
coast: a first pass national assessment, DCC, Canberra.
12. Department of Climate Change 2009, Climate change risks to Australia’s
coast: a first pass national assessment, DCC, Canberra.
11
Natural environment
Expansion of settlements and encroachment into
vulnerable areas, such as land prone to bushfire,
flooding or sea level rise, increases the risks that
Tasmanians face from climate change, and raises the
need to further invest in climate-resilient planning and
building design.
An expected increase in fire risk also poses future
challenges for human settlements, particularly in southeast Tasmania, which is recognised as being subject to
the highest fire danger in the State13.
Built environment
Tasmania’s historic heritage could be at risk from
coastal inundation, erosion, drought, flood and fires in
some areas. Coastal inundation is a particular concern
for some important heritage precincts including Port
Arthur, Lettes Bay Village and the Cornelian Bay boat
houses. Coastal erosion is also likely to significantly
impact on Aboriginal heritage, such as midden sites and
caves dating back tens of thousands of years.
Increasing temperature is also likely to increase the
risk of pests, such as termites, becoming established
in Tasmania (currently Tasmania is the only state
or territory that is free of termites because of our
cooler climate). Termites have the potential to destroy
buildings and infrastructure, as well as affect our
agricultural and forestry industries.
Changes in rainfall and runoff are likely to increase
pressure on waste water discharge, treatment plants,
holding dams and contaminated sites, and may harm
the surrounding environments through flooding and
the spreading of waste.
The lifespans of infrastructure (such as buildings, energy
and water systems, bridges and transport routes) are
limited. For example much of the State’s water and
wastewater distribution networks are nearing the end
of their functional life. The replacement of infrastructure
may provide opportunities for changes in technologies
and materials, or relocation, if necessary, for critical
infrastructure located in vulnerable areas.
13. White, CJ, Fox-Hughes, P, Grose, MR, Corney, S, Bennett, JC, Holz, GK,
Gaynor, S & Bindoff, NL 2010, Discussion document – implications for fire danger
in bushfire prone areas of Tasmania.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area one
Opportunities
There may be economic opportunities for Tasmania
due to population inflows from parts of Australia that
are more severely affected by climate change. Early
trends can be seen in the increasing investment in
‘second homes’ in areas along the southern coast of
Western Australia, the Victorian coast and in Tasmania14.
This may also be accompanied by increased tourism
opportunities in some areas.
Clusters of more densely populated areas may improve
economies of scale for the provision of goods and
services, and improved transport options.
In taking action to adapt settlements and infrastructure
to the changing climate there may also be
opportunities to support greenhouse gas emission
reduction efforts. For example, the replacement of
infrastructure with more efficient, less energy intensive
options may, in the case of transport links, improve
walking and cycling access and in turn induce lowcarbon behavioural changes and improved health and
wellbeing outcomes.
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information
at the regional and local level
The Tasmanian Government has invested in a number
of significant projects that provide high quality climate
science and climate impacts information for use in
policy, planning and localised decision making. The
Climate Futures for Tasmania project generated the
first fine-scale climate information for Tasmania under
a range of accepted greenhouse emission scenarios
for the period 1961 to 2100. The Tasmanian Coastal
Vulnerability Project will deliver strategic level modelling
to inform regional planning processes.
Through the most recent round of ClimateConnect15
grants program, the Local Government Association
of Tasmania is undertaking action to adapt to
climate change in coastal monitoring and education.
Break O’Day Council also recently completed a
ClimateConnect funded project to provide the
community with information about climate change
impacts in that municipality.
14. Demographic Change and Liveability Panel 2010, An appendix to A
Sustainable Population for Australia issues paper.
15. For more information see http://www.climatechange.tas.gov.au/grants/
climateconnect_grants/previous_rounds
12
Taking climate change risks and
opportunities into account in public
policy, planning and regulation
The Tasmanian Government is currently progressing a
number of planning reforms that will facilitate effective
adaptation to climate change. These include:
ƒƒ the Managing Natural Hazards through Land Use
Planning project to manage natural hazards (such
as coastal erosion and inundation, flooding, storms,
bushfires and landslide) through land-use planning;
ƒƒ a number of state-wide planning provisions to address
natural hazards and will assist local government in
planning, development assessment and adapting to
the consequences of climate change;
ƒƒ the recent establishment of a Sea Level Rise Planning
Allowances for 2050 and 2100 that will be used to
inform mapping and planning approaches for the
coastal zone; and
ƒƒ a Coastal Protection and Planning Framework
for the State.
The Tasmanian Government is also progressing joint
priority adaptation actions in partnership with local
government through the Premier’s Local Government
Council Work Program on Climate Change. Actions under
this work program include the Regional Councils Climate
Adaptation Project, to assist southern Tasmanian councils
develop climate change adaptation plans at a council
and regional level.
Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
Climate projections and associated impact information
help inform the risk management approaches used
by asset managers. There is now an increased focus
on upgrading and maintenance work that takes
into account climate change adaptation needs. The
ClimateAsyst decision support tool links climate
projection model data with supporting documentation
to assist infrastructure managers understand climate
change projections and plan to manage the potential
risks to infrastructure. A Coastal Risk Management
Plan Template, with supporting guidelines, has been
produced to assist local planners manage risks to assets
vulnerable to sea level rise in the coastal zone.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area one
The Tasmanian Coastal Works Manual16 provides a
comprehensive tool for coastal land managers such as
parks and reserves managers and local council works
crews.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
The Tasmanian Coastal Adaptation Decision Pathways
project involved working with local government to
improve the decision making capacity of four Tasmanian
councils to address coastal hazards. The project applied
a common methodology to assess the risks to local
coastal assets and to prioritise coastal adaptation
investment options. The ClimateConnect grant program
also recently supported a project in partnership with
the Cradle Coast Authority to increase the capacity of
the Cradle Coast councils to adapt to climate change
impacts at the corporate, community/stakeholder and
regional level, and provide for consistency in adaptation
planning.
13
?
Q7.
How can we build resilience capacity in our
communities to plan for, live with and manage
the climate change risks our human settlements
and infrastructure are likely to face?
Q8.
Do you think parts of our infrastructure
networks are at risk as a result of climate
change impacts?
If yes:
ƒƒ what is at risk?
ƒƒ what actions to adapt to climate
change could be taken to lessen these
risks?
ƒƒ over what timeframe is the action
required?
Q9.
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be considered
when developing adaptation responses for human
settlements and infrastructure, including:
ƒƒ identifying assets and communities that are at risk,
and the capacity of businesses and the community to
respond to those risks;
ƒƒ the need for planning and design to take into account
the long-term impacts of climate change, particularly
in vulnerable coastal areas;
ƒƒ ensuring building standards and design guidelines take
future climate projections into account, rather than
using historical data; and
ƒƒ ensuring that new developments and the
replacement of infrastructure considers adaptation
needs and opportunities, such as new technologies
and materials available and the suitable location of
critical infrastructure.
16. See http://epa.tas.gov.au/coastal/tasmanian-coastal-works-manual
Your feedback
How can the adaptation of privately owned
infrastructure be encouraged and improved?
Q10. What barriers are there to adapting to
the impacts of climate change on human
settlements and infrastructure?
Q11. What opportunities are there to adapt our
human settlements and infrastructure to the
challenges of climate change?
Q12. What information is required to help manage
climate change risks to human settlements and
local infrastructure?
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
2
Natural systems
Tasmania is recognised globally for its
diverse and unique terrestrial, freshwater
and marine plants, animals and landforms,
and for its extensive temperate wilderness
areas. Our terrestrial natural areas are
represented in both privately and publicly
owned land. Approximately 45 per cent
of the State’s landmass, which is protected
in public reserves, including the Tasmanian
Wilderness and Macquarie Island World
Heritage Areas which are rich in geological
and other natural values. The Tasmanian
marine and coastal environments are
also characterised by rich biodiversity,
heterogeneous coastal landforms and a
plethora of offshore island habitats. There
are 21 marine reserves declared within
Tasmanian waters.
The value of Tasmania’s biodiversity – both its intrinsic
natural value and the ecosystem services it provides – is
fundamental to our lifestyle and quality of life as well as the
ongoing strength of the State economy. Predicted changes
such as decreased rainfall, increased temperature, and the
increased frequency of extreme events are likely to impact on
biodiversity and other natural values. Different regions will be
affected in different ways.
Changes to the climate are likely to affect water quality and
storage, air quality, soil retention and other outputs of the
natural environment important for human health and wellbeing. They also impact natural processes17. For example,
heavy rain events separated by long periods of dry weather,
will increase the chances of soil erosion and runoff into water
catchments. The increased sediment in the runoff could
negatively impact both the land eroded and water quality.
17. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for Environmental Services
in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working Paper No. 06–15,The Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
14
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
15
Climate risks and opportunities
Risks that terrestrial systems are likely to face include:
Independent of climate change, Tasmanian natural
values already face a range of threats and disturbances
from activity such as fire and invasive species. Climate
change, however, may exacerbate these threats or
lead to complex interactions when combined. One
of the greatest challenges in predicting the effects of
climate change is the uncertainty associated with the
interaction of different climate change effects with other
stressors. The changing climate could undermine, or
alternatively enhance, efforts to reduce the effects of
other types of disturbances such as fire, invasive species
and habitat fragmentation. The influence of a changing
climate therefore cannot be considered merely as ‘one
more stressor’, but must be considered in every natural
resource management activity.
ƒƒ impacts on soils, leading to changes in soil
hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and
sedimentation;
ƒƒ increasing temperatures and snow cover declines will
result in a decline in alpine and sub-alpine habitats
area, threatening species such as the King Billy pine;
ƒƒ ecosystems vulnerable to fire, such as Tasmania’s
temperature rainforests, are likely to be placed under
increased pressure from climate change; and
ƒƒ a reduction in rainfall is likely to impact
a number of terrestrial systems such as
peatlands, which are vulnerable to oxidation
and a reduction in the rate of peat
accumulation as a result of reduced rainfall.
Species currently under existing pressure, such
as Eucalyptus gunnii are likely to experience
further stress as a result of reduced rainfall.
Climate change might also increase community
expectations that the Government will act to protect
natural assets at all costs, for example through “hardening”
the coastline to reduce erosion and increasing prescribed
burning to reduce bushfire risks. As discussed in Section
2, in undertaking its roles, the Government’s adaptation
response will be guided by the following risk-based
considerations:
ƒƒ risks arising from climate change can be managed; and
ƒƒ people should not be subsidised for living in
hazardous areas, but some assistance to support
transition might be appropriate.
Natural systems may also be subject to additional or
new risks as a consequence of actions in other areas.
Agriculture and water management sectors in particular
could have significant effects on natural systems.
Terrestrial systems
Climate change is likely to lead to ecosystem changes,
including local species extinctions. Changes such as
decreased rainfall and increased temperature and
frequency of extreme events will affect natural systems
and diversity in different regions in Tasmania.
Freshwater systems
Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems are considered to be
one of the most vulnerable to climate change18. Water
quantity and temperature change, which are key issues
for the ecological health of freshwater systems under
climate change. Water quantity influences a range of
issues, such as water quality, maintenance of habitat, and
sustaining aquatic and riparian flora and fauna19.
Risks that freshwater systems are likely to face include:
ƒƒ a potential reduction in the amount of suitable
habitat available for aquatic species as a result of
changed rainfall and runoff patterns. For example
as stream flows decline, the water temperature
can increase in river systems and reduce dissolved
oxygen levels. This could affect species such as the
giant freshwater crayfish, which require a more stable,
low water temperature20;
ƒƒ increased bank erosion, loss of riparian vegetation
and increased sedimentation as a result of longer
periods of dry weather, separated by heavier rain
events. This in turn could impact on bank stability and
habitat availability;
18. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for
Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working
Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
19. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for
Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working
Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
20. Richardson, J, Boubee, JA, West, DW 1994, ‘Thermal tolerance and
preference of some native New Zealand freshwater fish’, New Zealand Journal
of Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 28, pp. 399–407.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
ƒƒ increased threats from invasive species and erosion;
ƒƒ additional pressure on inland wetlands as a result of
the combined effect of the predicted changes to the
climate, such as changes in rainfall patterns, longer
periods of dry weather, increased temperatures, and
changes in wind patterns; and
ƒƒ freshwater wetlands close to sea level are at
risk of saltwater intrusion and the effects of
storm surges.
Freshwater systems are also vulnerable to activities that
impact water use, quality and run-off21, including actions
to adapt to climate change that could be taken to
protect other systems.
Marine systems
Changes to environmental variables such as ocean
temperature, currents, winds, nutrient supply, rainfall,
ocean chemistry and the incidence of extreme weather
conditions are likely to have significant impacts on
marine ecosystems22.
Risks that marine systems are likely to face include:
ƒƒ Oceans becoming more acidic as a result of a
reduction in the natural absorption of carbon
dioxide by oceans and reducing their pH levels23.
In turn, lower pH levels will also reduce the
concentrations of essential compounds that are vital
for the formation of shells and skeletons of marine
organisms.
ƒƒ Increasing water temperature is likely to result in
Tasmania experiencing:
–– a shift in species distributions, such as
the southern rock lobster and abalone
fisheries24;
–– the further introduction and establishment
of invasive species, as is already evident in
the establishment of the long spined sea
urchin in local waters; and
21. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, 2001, National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Freshwater Biodiversity <http://www.
nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files/NCCARF%20FWB_FINAL_
summary.pdf>
22. Hobday, AJ, Poloczanska, ES, & Matear, RJ (eds) 2008, Implications of climate
change for Australian fisheries and aquaculture: a preliminary assessment, report
to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra.
23. Hobday, AJ, Okey, TA, Poloczanska, ES, Kunz, TJ & Richardson, AJ (eds) 2006,
Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: Part A, executive summary,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra.
24. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
16
–– a decline in marine biodiversity is highly
likely25. Kelp forests are already reducing
in distribution and abundance and cold
water corals are also expected to decline
in response to both warming waters and
increased ocean acidity.
The impact of climate change on marine systems such
as fish and krill populations are expected to impact on
higher order predators such as seals, whales, seabirds
and penguins26.
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
The Tasmanian Coastal Works Manual aims to increase
coastal managers’ knowledge and awareness of a wide
range of coastal land management issues. This will
improve the resilience of Tasmania’s coastline to the
future effects of climate change and sea level rise.
Through the ClimateConnect grant program, the
Tasmanian Government is currently supporting
Greening Australia Tasmania in a project to adapt to the
impacts of drought and fire in the high risk area of Mt
Nelson. A project is also being delivered through the
grant program by the University of Tasmania to increase
reporting capacity to detect shifting marine species.
The Tasmanian Government has partnered with the
University of Tasmania on the National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) Joining the dots
project to integrate climate and hydrological projections
with freshwater ecosystem values to develop adaptation
options for conserving freshwater biodiversity.
25. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
26. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
Taking climate change risks and
opportunities into account in public policy,
planning and regulation
The Tasmanian Government is modifying a number of
existing policy and management plans, such as all new
threatened species recovery plans, to take into account
the threats posed by climate change. The designs of
existing land management programs have also been
modified in response to climate change. For example,
the Private Land Conservation Program’s traditional
criteria used for conservation planning have been
expanded to include connectivity, landscape function
and resilience. The Government also acknowledges that
some measures to adapt to climate change are likely
to require new policies, as such, has developed a policy
for the translocation of native animals and plants for
conservation purposes to assist with active adaptation
intervention.
Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
The Tasmanian Government undertakes or contributes
to a range of research projects to better manage
climate change risks to the State’s natural systems. The
Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate
Change: An Overview27 provides a detailed assessment of
the potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s
natural values to help guide the development of policy
and management responses. Changing disease, pest
and weed profiles are also very likely to occur with
climate change and the Government is working to
include climate change considerations into Tasmania’s
biosecurity risk analyses.
17
The Tasmanian Government is working with other
spheres of government on a range of natural systems
adaptation matters. For example, the protection of
refugia has been identified as a key adaptation priority
for the protection of biodiversity in the Southern
Tasmania Regional Land Use Strategy 2010–2035, a joint
State and Local Government strategy to guide land use
and development in the south of the State over the
next two decades.
The Government also supported the establishment of
the Redmap website28 which enables the community
to log and map sightings of marine species that are not
common in Tasmanian waters.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
Through the five-year project Biodiverse Carbon for
Landscape Restoration: the Establishment of a Permanent
Research Site in the Derwent Catchment, the capacity of
the Bothwell and Hamilton agricultural regions to adapt
to the impacts of climate change will be strengthened.
The Tasmanian Government is also working in
partnership with the State’s three regional National
Resource Management (NRM) organisations
to support adaptation in natural systems. These
partnerships support adaptation work, as is shown in
NRM South’s strategy for 2010-15, which highlights
enhancing the resilience of local communities as one of
its key improvement objectives29.
The Tasmanian Seed Conservation Centre, managed
by the Royal Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, is part of
an international coalition with the Millennium Seed
Bank. This initiative will provide an ‘insurance policy’
against the extinction of plants in the wild by storing
seeds for future use. The Centre is also addressing
seed dormancy and germination issues to improve
the effectiveness of restoration and revegetation
programs. This work is critical for the future success of
translocation programs and interventions.
27. A second report, Overview of the report: potential climate change impacts
on geodiversity in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, produced by
the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, looks at
approaches to the potential impacts of climate change on geodiversity values in
western Tasmania.
28. http://www.redmap.org.au/
29. Southern Regional Committee for Natural Resource Management (NRM
South), 2010, Natural Resource Management Strategy for Southern Tasmania
2010-2015, <http://www.nrmsouth.org.au/uploaded/287/15131081_48nrm_
strategy_sth_tas_20.pdf>
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses for
natural systems, including:
ƒƒ recognising the vital role that healthy natural systems
play in supporting prosperous communities and vibrant
economies;
ƒƒ developing new approaches to manage the impacts
of climate change, existing threats and the complex
interactions between them;
ƒƒ giving priority to conducting risk assessments for
species (including invasive species), ecosystems and
natural processes in developing management and
recovery plans;
ƒƒ ensuring management strategies are flexible to allow
for readjustment as new information arises; and
ƒƒ considering the impact of changes to natural systems
on environmental services and the value that
environmental services provide to both human wellbeing and to maintaining natural processes.
18
?
Your feedback
Q13. What are the most pressing risks and
opportunities that our natural systems are likely
to face as the climate changes?
Q14. What actions could be taken to enable our
natural systems to cope with the risks they are
likely to face as the climate changes? Over what
timeframe is the action required?
Q15. What strategies, mechanism and tools can best
facilitate adaptation in natural systems at the local
or regional level?
Q16. What barriers are there to adapting to climate
change impacts on natural systems?
Q17. What information is required to help manage the
climate change risks to our key and threatened
natural systems?
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area three
3
19
Water management
Water is a critical resource, with its
future availability and security being
important to a range of sectors including
residential, industry, agriculture, electricity
generation and the environment.
Tasmania is fortunate to have an abundance of fresh
water, with 12 per cent of the Nation’s fresh water
resources in an area of less than 1 per cent of the
total Australian land mass and some 3 per cent of the
population. The average annual surface runoff is around
45 000 gigalitres (GL). However, there are a range of
competing demands on this shared resource such as
hydro-electricity generation, irrigation, human settlement
requirements, recreational usages and requirements of
natural systems.
Tasmania’s hydro-electric system covers a large proportion
of the western and central areas of Tasmania and includes
two of Australia’s largest reservoirs: Lake Gordon/Pedder
(11 000 GL) and the Great Lake (3 000 GL).
Tasmania’s groundwater and surface water resources are
highly connected. A large proportion of annual stream flow
comes from springs and direct discharge of groundwater into
the beds and banks of watercourses32.
While Tasmania’s surface water resources (lakes, wetlands,
overland flow, streams and rivers) appear plentiful, they
are distributed unevenly across the State with most
developed areas regularly experiencing dry summer
periods when water demand exceeds natural river
flows30.
Local, regional and State Government bodies have
responsibility for the management and regulation of
Tasmania’s freshwater resources. For example:
ƒƒ three Local Government-owned regional water
corporations (Southern Water, Cradle Mountain Water
and Ben Lomond Water) are responsible for drinking
water and sewerage provision;
ƒƒ the State Government-owned company Tasmanian
Irrigation Pty Ltd is responsible for the development
and operation of the State’s irrigation schemes; and
ƒƒ State Government Business Enterprise Hydro
Tasmania has a special water licence to take
water for electricity generation purposes31.
30. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Overview
of surface water in Tasmania, http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/
RPIO-4Y4VHT?open
31. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Water in
Tasmania – who is responsible?, http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/
JMUY-6X473H?open
32. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Ground-surface
water connectivity in Tasmania, http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/JMUY8U38SY?open
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area three
20
Climate risks and opportunities
Action so far by the Government
Tasmanian runoff distribution closely follows rainfall,
exhibiting a steep gradient from the west to the
east coast33. By 2100, large irrigation storages fed
from runoff from the central highlands are likely
to have reduced inflows. In the same time period,
large irrigation storages supplying the Macquarie and
Coal River catchments are projected to experience
increased inflows. These changes, together with
seasonal rainfall variations and an increase in the
likelihood of severe rain events, are likely to impact on
agricultural development in these regions34.
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
Climate change is also likely to reduce inflows to
catchments used for hydro-electric power generation
and this could reduce the power generation capacity of
the State’s hydro-electric system. In addition to affecting
irrigation and electricity generation, changes in rainfall
and runoff may affect recreational activities, wastewater
management, and water for drinking and household
uses.
Higher temperatures will lead to increased evaporation
from open waters and soils, and result in increased
agricultural and residential water demand. Extreme
rainfall events can also negatively impact on water
quality through increased sediments, nutrients and
pathogens entering waterways from runoff and sewer
overflows.
Managing the competing demands for water is likely
to emerge as a major policy issue as climate change
intensifies.
There are likely to be opportunities for Tasmania to
use the natural advantages of localised fresh water
resources, and in some instances redistribute water
resources, to support irrigation projects and high
value agriculture. Work has already commenced
to take advantage of this opportunity through the
establishment of Tasmanian Irrigation Pty Ltd to develop
and operate major irrigation projects in the State.
33. Bennett, JC, Ling, FLN, Graham, B, Grose, MR, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz,
GK, Post, DA, Gaynor, SM & Bindoff NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: water
and catchments technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative
Research Centre, Hobart.
34. Bennett, JC, Ling, FLN, Graham, B, Grose, MR, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz,
GK, Post, DA, Gaynor, SM & Bindoff NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: water
and catchments technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative
Research Centre, Hobart.
Two major studies have been undertaken to investigate
the potential impact of climate change on Tasmanian
water resources: the CSIRO Tasmanian Sustainable
Yields project and the Climate futures for Tasmania
Water and Catchments report. Both projects provide
information on potential changes to water resources,
including surface water and groundwater availability for
environmental, irrigation and recreational use. They also
provided an insight into how climate change may vary
across the State, and which regions may become more
vulnerable to increases in extreme weather events and
changes in temperature, wind and evaporation.
The Tasmanian Government also supports the State’s
three NRM organisations, which provide a range of
services, including providing research and information
on catchments and water quality.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
The Tasmanian Government established State-owned
company Tasmanian Irrigation Pty Ltd to develop
and operate a suite of irrigation schemes to provide
improved water security to irrigators and farmers. The
development of these schemes is funded by both the
Tasmanian and Australian Governments, with private
capital contributions made through water entitlements
and improves water availability and reliability.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area three
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses for
water resources, including:
ƒƒ linkages and interactions with other areas discussed
in the paper, particularly managing the competing
demands for water resources;
ƒƒ the protection of water quality and quantity for critical
water sources, including environmental flows; and
ƒƒ the sustainability of current and new sources of water.
21
?
Your feedback
Q18. What policy responses will be necessary to
accommodate changing water availability
patterns and competition for water resources?
Q19. How can we continue to improve the
coordination and integration of water
management across levels of government and
industry sectors?
Q20. How can we work with major water users
prepare for the water supply and quality issues
they may face?
Q21. What barriers are there to adapting
to impacts of climate change on water
management?
Q22. What information is required to support
water management priorities?
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
4
Industry sectors
Many of Tasmania’s major industries, such as
agriculture, wild fisheries and aquaculture,
forestry, and tourism will be impacted by
climate change.
Tasmania has a strong agricultural tradition and the agriculture
sector is highly diversified. Important sub-sectors include
mixed farming enterprises, dairy, fruit, vegetables, red meat,
wool, poppies and viticulture as well as niche production
such as seeds, honey, ginseng, olives, truffles and essential
oils. Agriculture plays an important role in the Tasmanian
economy, with a total farm gate value in 2009-10 of around
$1.15 billion35.
Aquaculture and wild fisheries are also major industries in the
State. The aquaculture industry primarily consists of salmonid
(salmon and trout) production. In 2009-10 Tasmania’s
salmonid sector had a gross value of $362.4 million. Other
significant sub – sectors include oysters ($21.2 million),
abalone ($5.1 million) and mussels ($3.4 million). The
major products from wild fisheries include scalefish, lobster
(production valued at approximately $65.2 million) and
abalone (approximately $94.6 million)36.
The Tasmanian forestry sector is an integrated industry that
encompasses both native forest and plantation resources
(softwood and hardwood), the production of logs, woodchips,
hardwood and softwood sawn timber, pulp and paper
production, veneer, fuel wood and other wood products.
Tasmanian forest based industries are a key contributor to
the Tasmanian economy accounting for approximately $507
million in 2009–1037.
Tasmania’s tourism industry contributes around $1.4 billion
per year to the State economy38 . Research suggests that
the Tasmanian wilderness and coastal environments are the
strongest attraction for new visitors39.
35. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, Cat No. 7503.0 Value of agricultural commodities
produced.
36. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2011, Food and
beverage industry ScoreCard 2009-10 Snapshot
37. Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts 2011, Sector profile
and summary – forestry (and related products), http://www.development.tas.gov.au/__
data/assets/pdf_file/0011/46991/Industry_Summary_Forestry.pdf
38. Tourism Tasmania 2008, Our environment: a paper for Tourism Tasmania’s strategic
planning forum, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart.
39. Tourism Tasmania 2011, Motivations research: appeal triggers and motivations for
tourism in Tasmania, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart.
22
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Climate risks and opportunities
Agriculture
Climate is one of the fundamental factors that
determine where different types of primary production
can be successfully pursued. Climate variability is
not new for agricultural producers, who have always
managed and adapted to a highly variable climate40.
It is very clear that projected long-term changes in
rainfall and temperature associated with climate change
will impact on Tasmania’s agriculture industry. However,
the design of policies for risk management in agriculture
raises many challenges. These range from generating
sound information on the types of risks and the tools
available to deal with them, to creating incentives to
encourage farmers to adopt a proactive risk
management strategy.
Risks and opportunities that the agricultural sector is
likely to face include:
ƒƒ Chill hours are projected to decrease in lower
elevation of Tasmania and increase at higher
elevations. This may have localised impacts on crops
that require a period of cold before they can bud,
flower and set fruit.
ƒƒ A large increase in the number of growing degree
days are projected by 2085. This is likely to impact on
the crop types and varieties selected. For example,
by mid-century wine varieties such as cabernet
sauvignon are predicted to ripen reliably in some
areas, but by 2085 will do so in all wine growing
regions of Tasmania. New crop opportunities,
will need to be carefully managed to avoid the
establishment of new weeds in the State.
ƒƒ By 2085, dry land pasture production from ryegrass
is projected to increase in some regions of Tasmania,
particularly those that are currently temperature
limited. Irrigated ryegrass yields are projected to
increase by around 20 to 30 per cent by 2040 but
thereafter decline to current levels due
to increases in the number of hot days during
summer months41.
23
ƒƒ A reduction in drought in the south-east, north-east
and south-west and an increase in the central to
north-west regions of Tasmania is projected.
ƒƒ Changing climate, in particular increasing
temperature, will alter the spread and
impact of invasive species and predators.
Some pests and diseases already present in
a region are likely to become more virulent
and widespread. In those areas where higher
temperatures are also coupled with reduced
rainfall, a reduction in fungal infections or
preferentially promotion of pest predators
may occur. For example, the Tasmanian
mild climate is currently unsuitable for the
Queensland fruit fly. With a warming climate,
populations could more easily establish on
the Bass Strait islands and then move into the
north and across the State42.
Wild fisheries and aquaculture
Climate change is expected to have a significant impact
on Tasmania’s ocean environment, particularly on the
east coast. Sea temperatures are rising, currents are
changing and impacts are already being seen in species
composition and ecosystems43. These changes will
result in flow-on impacts to Tasmania’s marine-based
industries due to a shift in the distribution, abundance
and productivity of target species and the introduction
of pest species.
Risks that the wild fisheries and aquaculture sector are
likely to face include:
ƒƒ A southward shift in species distributions is expected.
This is likely to support the further introduction
and establishment of invasive species such as the
long-spined sea urchin which has established in
the warmer Tasmanian waters, directly affecting
ecosystems that are vital for significant fisheries such
as abalone44.
ƒƒ Changes to the distribution of marine species
may result in reduced populations or new species
entering established fishing grounds.
40. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
42. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
41. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
43. Pecl, G, Frusher, S, Gardner, C, Haward, M, Hobday, A, Jennings, S, NurseyBray, M, Punt, A, Revill, H, van Putten, I 2009, The east coast Tasmanian rock
lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response
options, report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra.
44. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource
Management and Conservation Division 2010, Vulnerability of Tasmania’s natural
environment to climate change: an overview, unpublished report, DPIPWE,
Hobart.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
ƒƒ Increases in the outbreaks of disease, nutrient pulses
and storm surges are expected to affect profitability
in the Tasmanian salmon and oyster industries.
ƒƒ Oyster and other bivalve harvests are expected to
be affected by an increase in algal bloom occurrences.
ƒƒ A reduction in nutrient levels, combined
with changes in rainfall patterns, sea level
rise and acidification, could affect the
culturing environment and the serviceability
of estuarine and coastal zones for shellfish
farming.
At its most severe, climate change could have
catastrophic impacts on vulnerable parts of the
lifecycle of key species, affect ecosystem functioning
and may result in major sudden changes in ecosystems
(often referred to as “tipping points”).
Forestry
The main wood plantation species in Tasmania are
radiata pine (Pinus radiata), shining gum (Eucalyptus
nitens) and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus). Recent
research undertaken by the Australian Bureau of
Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
indicates that reduced rainfall and increased
temperatures would affect the growth rates of forest
plantation species. On average, growth rates for
radiata pine are projected to decline (against the 2005
baseline growth rates), while blue gum growth rates are
projected to increase45.
Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide may
compensate for declines in growth rates by providing a
fertilisation effect to some extent. However, such gains
may be offset by changes in the distribution, incidence
and severity of pests, diseases and invasive species46.
The plantation and native forest sectors are likely to
be particularly vulnerable to increased occurrence and
severity of fire weather (extreme heat, dryness and
wind).
24
Tourism
Climate affects when, why, how and where tourists
travel. It also affects the nature and location of tourism
attractions, such as wilderness areas, surf beaches
and snowfields. Tourism is particularly vulnerable to
an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme
events such as droughts, bushfires and floods. These
events can lead to dramatic declines in visitation at
the time of and immediately following the disaster.
This was experienced by the Queensland tourism
industry after the flood and cyclone events during
the summer of 2010–11. Extreme events can also
have long-term impacts through damage to tourismrelated infrastructure and the change in perception of a
location as a safe and attractive place to visit.
Marine and coastal ecosystems provide high lifestyle
and tourism values which could be negatively affected
by rising sea level. Tourist developments close to the
shoreline in vulnerable coastal areas may have difficulty
obtaining property insurance against flood and wind
damage, may lose value, and may ultimately be forced
to relocate47.
Climate change also presents opportunities for the
Tasmanian tourism industry. For example, the more
modest temperature increases expected for the
State may continue to make Tasmania an appealing
destination for travellers seeking an escape from the
more extreme climates of Australia and other parts of
the world. in harnessing these opportunities, however,
it will be important to consider the potential effect
on other adaptation priority area, such as Human
Settlements and Infrastructure. There is some risk that
this opportunities will be offset by future changes
to the cost of travel as a result of efforts to reduce
greenhouse gases and increased fuel pricing.
Other sectors
Climate change policy may provide some opportunities
for the forestry industry to benefit from emerging
carbon sequestration markets.
Other industry sectors may also face risks from climate
change. Those businesses located in coastal areas may
be exposed to sea level rise and storm surge. Extreme
events such as flooding and heat waves may also
impose additional costs on businesses. Supply chain
businesses may be indirectly affected if climate change
impact costs are passed down the supply chain.
45. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
2011, Potential effects of climate change on forests and forestry: summary for
Tasmania, August, ABARES, Canberra.
47. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact
sheet – tourism, http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/9.Tourism-Impacts.
pdf
46. Pinkard, EA, Kriticos, DJ & Potter, K 2010, Implications of climate change
for Australia’s plantation forests: weeds, insects and fungal pests, prepared for
the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences,
Canberra.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
The Climate Futures for Tasmania: Impacts on Agriculture
report provides farmers, agribusiness and agricultural
policy makers with important information about the
expected impacts of climate change on the agricultural
sector. The Agricultural Futures Project will continue
to communicate the Climate Futures for Tasmania
results and it will also provide specific regional and
crop/sectoral-scale information. The Future farming –
managing risks and opportunities program will identify
opportunities and support ways to benefit from a
highly variable global environment48.
Adaptation in the fishing and aquaculture sectors is also
being explored by the DPIPWE in collaboration with
the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies through
a series of Tasmanian case studies of the abalone, rock
lobster, snapper and blue grenadier sectors. The case
studies will assess the capacity of fisheries management
to adapt to forecast changes to these fisheries sectors.
The Tasmanian Government, in collaboration with the
TIA, are partners in the Climate Change Research
Strategy for Primary Industries, which provides valuable
communication, coordination, collaboration and
representation on climate change issues for the primary
industries sector.
48. Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture Strategic Plan 2012–16, http://www.tia.tas.
edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/212820/TIAR-Strategic-Plan_FINAL.pdf
25
Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
Additional modelling undertaken by the DPIPWE has
provided a valuable fruit fly risk monitoring tool. This
tool takes account of weather patterns interstate, the
extent of outbreaks there, and possible climate shifts in
Tasmania, and estimates risk of fruit fly establishment.
This tool will be used by DPIPWE for assessing changes
in the risk profile in the State.
A monitoring program has been established for
montane conifers (such as King Billy Pine and Pencil
Pine) by DPIPWE following research indicating they
may be at risk from climate change.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
Climate change impact information is considered
in tools and resources that assist farmers to build
resilience and improve their farm practices, for example
FarmPoint web portal49 and the Tasmanian Property
Management Systems Framework.
In round 3 of the Tasmanian Government’s
ClimateConnect grants, funds were awarded to the
Derwent Catchment NRM group for the successful
Introducing resilient pasture species to the Derwent
Valley project, which demonstrated alternative,
long-lived, hardy, perennial forage plants suitable for
environmentally sustainable grazing in the Derwent
Valley.
49. www.farmpoint.tas.gov.au
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses for
Tasmania’s industry sectors, including:
ƒƒ cross-jurisdictional approaches to issues such as
biosecurity, to maximise the effectiveness of adaptation
responses and to share resources;
ƒƒ regulatory impacts of changing land use demands as a
result of climate change;
ƒƒ ensuring flexible planning, investment and management
strategies are developed that allow for adjustment as
conditions change or as new information arises;
ƒƒ the vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport
infrastructure to climate change; and
ƒƒ linkages with other priority areas discussed in the paper.
26
?
Your feedback
Q23. Are you aware of industries that have identified
climate change risks, developed adaptation plans
or taken actions to adapt to those risks?
If yes:
ƒƒ what actions have they undertaken/
planned to take? And over what
timeframes?
ƒƒ are partnerships with other sectors or
the community involved?
ƒƒ what can we learn from their
experience?
Q24. How can we best support our key industries to
be resilient and adapt to the challenges they face
from climate change?
Q25. What other industries are likely to be directly
affected by the impacts of climate change and
how can we help them take action to adapt?
Q26. What economic opportunities are emerging, or
are likely to emerge, from the changing climate?
Q27. What barriers are there to adapting to the
impacts of climate change on industry sectors?
Q28. What information is required to help manage the
climate change risks to our key industries?
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area five
5
Natural disasters
In Tasmania, emergency management
arrangements are provided through
the Emergency Management Act 2006.
Other legislation makes provision for
hazard specific disaster prevention,
preparedness, response and recovery
arrangements.
The effect of the predicted climatic changes could
result in natural hazards that, either individually or in
combination, result in extreme events in vulnerable areas.
For example an extended dry period combined with a
heat wave can increase the risk of bushfire50.
The Tasmanian Government is actively involved in local
and national initiatives that are enabling climate change
adaptation actions and enhancing the resilience of
communities to the effects of natural disasters.
The National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (NSDR)
is COAG’s major initiative for improving Australia’s
resilience to natural disasters. The NSDR facilitates the
business and non-government sectors working together
to enhance Australia’s capacity to withstand and recover
from disasters.
The NSDR acknowledges that climate change will likely
result in an increased frequency and severity of extreme
weather events. It highlights the need for governments
to develop and implement effective risk-based land use
planning arrangements, as a way of strengthening the
nation’s resilience to disasters, particularly in the context
of climate change.
50. IPCC, 2012: Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F.
Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K.
Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.), A Special Report of Working Groups I and
II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19.
27
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area five
28
Climate risks and opportunities
Action so far by the Government
With climate change, Tasmania is expected to
experience more heat waves, more frequent and
intense bushfires, rising sea levels, increased storm
surge, and increase in wind and flooding risk in certain
locations.
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
In addition to these natural hazards and disasters,
there are other ways that climate change may affect
communities51, for example:
ƒƒ Climate change increases the uncertainty associated
with year-to-year climate variability.
ƒƒ While projections often show a constant rate of
change in climate, the actual change may be more
abrupt and lead to sudden changes52.
ƒƒ There is potential for an increase in
concurrent disaster events to occur, which
may restrict the capacity of jurisdictions to
share resources (either between states or
regions).
There are limits to the Government’s ability to fund
emergency management resources, so an appropriate
balance of measures will need to be considered to
manage the increased pressures on the emergency
management system53. For example, in some instances
preventative land use planning policies may be more
effective in managing the risks posed by natural hazards
to people and property than emergency response
actions.
The Climate Futures for Tasmania: Extreme Events
research examined hot and cold periods, droughts
and dry spells, flooding and high rainfall and bushfires
in Tasmanian to determine how climate change
might alter the characteristics of these events in the
21st century. The findings have been critical to informing
Tasmanian emergency management policy, planning and
regulation.
Through the Managing natural hazards through land-use
planning project, a series of policy statements will be
developed that outline the State’s land use planning
approach to managing the risks posed by landslide,
coastal inundation, coastal erosion, bushfire and
severe weather. Natural hazards and policy responses
in Tasmania will also be examined through a Natural
Disaster Resilience Program funded project.
The Tasmanian Government has also reviewed
arrangements for land use and development in
bushfire prone areas. The outcome of this review is
the implementation of new arrangements to ensure
appropriate standards are consistently applied to the
construction of houses and other buildings in bushfire
prone areas.
Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
A register of the most significant risks posed by natural
hazards in Tasmania has been prepared as part of the
Tasmanian State Natural Disaster Risk Assessment, which
will inform government’s strategic management of
those risks. The Government has also initiated a new
program of planned fuel reduction burning. The objective
is to reduce the risks posed by large bushfires by
creating strategic corridors of lowered fuel in bushland
areas.
51. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact
sheet – emergency management, http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/7.
Emergency-Impacts.pdf
52. Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency), 2011, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses,
Climate Commission Secretariat, Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency.
53. Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency), 2011, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses,
Climate Commission Secretariat, Department of Climate Change and Energy
Efficiency
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area five
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses
to natural disasters, including:
ƒƒ implementing integrated risk-based strategies to
prevent, prepare for, respond and recover from
natural disasters;
ƒƒ promoting programs that build community resilience
to natural disasters; and
ƒƒ ensuring an integrated approach is maintained
through collaborative engagement with businesses,
industries, State and Local Governments and the
community.
29
?
Your feedback
Q29. How can we best manage at-risk land to
reduce the expected increase in of natural
hazards as a result of climate change?
Q30. What actions could be taken to manage
the increase in risk of natural hazards that
the community may face as a result of the
changing climate? Over what timeframe is the
action required?
Q31. What actions could be taken to build
community resilience (such as preparedness
and preventative strategies) to support our
community in responding to natural disasters?
Q32. What challengers are there to managing the
risks posed by natural disasters predicted as a
result of climate change?
Q33. What information is required to help manage
the predicted increase in natural hazards as a
result of climate change?
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area six
6
Human health and
vulnerable communities
The Tasmanian Government has a range
of existing systems and regulations in
place to promote human health. These
include basic health services such as
immunisation and communicable disease
control, clinical services, aged care,
as well as sector-specific policy and
regulations to prevent the development
of health risks. Collectively these systems
aim to minimise the impact that both
direct and indirect health threats have
on the physical and mental wellbeing of
Tasmanians.
The impacts of climate change may not be evenly
distributed and some communities are likely to be more
affected than others. Highly vulnerable communities may
not have the capacity or resources to effectively adapt to
climate change, and may need assistance.
Members of the community vulnerable to the effects of
climate change include people in low socio-economic,
or geographically isolated areas, people who experience
poor health, or are disabled, and people who live in areas
at particular risk of the impacts of climate change, such as
some coastal areas.
Adapting successfully to the risks posed to human health
in Tasmania will depend on the ability of existing clinical
and health protection systems to cope with additional
pressures caused by climate change, and our ability to
support Tasmanian’s most vulnerable.
30
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area six
Climate risks and opportunities
Climate change is expected to vary the incidence,
pattern, range and seasonality of illnesses and disease.
It poses direct threats through changes in weather
patterns (eg, increased incidence of heatwaves), and
increases in flash flooding and bushfires which can
cause direct physical injury and death.
The more vulnerable members of the community –
the elderly, the very young, those with existing medical
problems, in rural communities and in lower socioeconomic groups – are especially at risk from climate
change impacts. Climate change is likely to lead to
increases in certain types of air pollutants and airborne allergens like pollen and mould spores. This will
seriously impact people who suffer from respiratory
illnesses, such as asthma, hay fever and lung cancer.
As the incidence of illness and disease as a result of
climate change increases, the capacity of clinical health
and emergency services, and essential infrastructure
and services will also need to adapt. This is illustrated
by Victoria and South Australia’s experience of one
of the Nation’s most severe heatwaves during the
summer of 2009. The dramatic increase in deaths
directly related to the heatwave (374 in Melbourne
and up to 150 estimated deaths in Adelaide, with
thousands of heat-related illnesses reported) illustrates
the devastating effects such an event can have on
individuals and communities. Critical infrastructure
and services were also put under intense pressure,
with governments, councils, utilities, hospitals and
emergency services largely unprepared for an extreme
event of such magnitude54. With climate change, the
threat of extreme weather events and hazards such as
heatwaves are likely to increase in frequency, severity,
duration and spatial extent.
Adaptation planning will therefore need to consider
a range of individual health impacts as well as
infrastructure and service provision capacity.
Overall, climate change impacts in Tasmania are
expected to have less severe implications for human
health relative to other parts of Australia.
����������������������������������������������������������
. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Impacts and
adaptation responses of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern
Australian experience of 2009 (2010)
31
Some positive health benefits are associated with future
climate change. For example, warmer winters in Tasmania
may lead to a reduction in cold-related illnesses55. However,
this may be offset by an increase in health-related conditions
associated with an increase in high temperature days (eg heat
exhaustion and mosquito borne diseases). While heat waves
are expected to be less frequent and severe in Tasmania than
other states56, vulnerable members of the community may
be sensitive to the increase in hot weather or extreme heat
events.
As identified previously in this Adaptation Priority
Area 1 – Human Settlements and Infrastructure, Tasmania
may experience population inflows from more severely
climate impacted parts of Australia and the world. There is
potential that these may include vulnerable members joining
the community that might need assistance.
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information at the regional
and local level
Recent rounds of the Tasmanian Government ClimateConnect
grant program have funded human health based projects
initiated by University of Tasmania researchers. The Climate
Change Health Impact and Risk Assessment Tool piloted
implementation of a risk assessment tool for health impacts
brought about by climate change. In the most recent round,
funds have been provided for the Vector-borne disease in
Tasmania under climate change project, to bring together
unconnected knowledge about the socio-biophysical
factors important to creating vector-borne disease risk and
vulnerability conditions in the context of climate change.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build climate
resilience and adaptive capacity
Tasmania is currently working with the Australian
Government to provide support to Tasmanian’s with a
disability and to use Tasmania as a launch site for the National
Disability Insurance Scheme set to commence from July 2013.
Support has also been provided to vulnerable communities
through the Tasmanian Community Transport Trust Cars for
Communities grant program, helping to provide transport
options for isolated members of the community and the
55. Climate Commission 2012, The critical decade – Tasmanian impacts and opportunities,
<http://climatecommission.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/Tasmanian-impacts-report_web.
pdf>
56. Guest CS, Willson K, Woodward AJ, Hennessy K, Kalkstein LS, Skinner C, et al.
Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts
in five major cities in 2030. Climate Research 1999;13:1-15
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area six
Community Capacity Building Grant Program providing
funding for a range of projects to support improved
health and wellbeing outcomes.
32
?
Your feedback
Future directions
Q34. How can we build resilience in our communities
to adapt to the health challenges we are likely
to face?
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses
for community health and individual wellbeing, including:
Q35. Which sections of our community are most
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change?
ƒƒ building social and human capital to create more
resilient communities and increase their adaptive
capacity;
ƒƒ linkages with other priority areas discussed in the
paper;
ƒƒ the health risks faced by vulnerable groups in the
community, including the elderly, people with disability
or chronic illnesses, remote communities, children
and the poor; and
ƒƒ the consequences of both direct (eg heat waves) and
indirect (eg spread of infectious diseases) impacts on
health and health services, other services and critical
infrastructure.
Q36. How can health services best adapt to the
changing patterns of health conditions expected
as a result of climate change?
Q37. What actions could be taken to reduce the
risks to people’s health and our vulnerable
communities in Tasmania? Over what timeframe
is the action required? And what types of costs
would be involved?
Q38. What barriers are there to adapting to the
impacts of climate change on human health and
our vulnerable communities?
Q39. What information is required to help manage
climate change risks to human health and our
vulnerable communities?
Appendix 1
33
Appendix 1
Predicted changes to Tasmania’s climate
Changing rainfall and runoff
To help us understand how climate change is predicted
to affect Tasmania, the internationally regarded Climate
Futures for Tasmania project was undertaken by the
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative
Research Centre, based at the University of Tasmania.
Tasmania experienced a downward trend in rainfall
over the period 1970 to 199060 and this has continued
as shown in the Figure 1 below. The largest changes in
Tasmanian rainfall have been observed in autumn61.
The project provides the first fine-scale climate
information for Tasmania by downscaling six global
climate models with two emission scenarios
(high emissions scenario – A2 and lower emissions
scenario – B1) to generate climate information from
1961 to 2100.
Figure 1.
a) Trend in annual total rainfall 1970–201162
This information helps us understand the changes at a
local and regional level in Tasmania.
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-5.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Increasing temperature
Mean or average temperature in Tasmania has
increased by more than 0.5°C since 1950, with a
higher trend in the north-east than in the rest of the
State. The increase has been greater for minimum
temperatures (usually occurring overnight) than for
maximum temperatures.
The projected rise in mean temperature is relatively
uniform across Tasmania. There is more spatial diversity
in the change in temperature in each season than in
the annual change57. The spatial pattern of the trend in
daily maximum temperature since 1961 is for greater
change in the north-east and the interior, whereas daily
minimum temperature has generally increased more on
the north coast and less in the interior58.
57. Grose, MR, Barnes-Keoghan, I, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz, GK, Bennett, JB,
Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania technical report –
general climate impacts.
58. Grose, MR, Barnes-Keoghan, I, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz, GK, Bennett, JB,
Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania technical report –
general climate impacts.
59. Grose, MR, Barnes-Keoghan, I, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz, GK, Bennett, JB,
Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania technical report –
general climate impacts.
2000
Rainfall (mm)
By 2100, Tasmania’s temperature is projected to rise
by approximately 2.9°C under the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s ‘high emissions’
scenario (A2), and by approximately 1.6°C under the
‘low emissions’ scenario (B1)59. Tasmania’s projected
temperature changes for both emissions scenarios are
less than the projected Australian and global average
temperature changes for the same period. This is largely
due to the moderating influence of the Southern
Ocean.
b) Trend in annual total rainfall Tasmania 1900–201163
2000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
1900
1920
Linear trend of – 10.93mm/decade
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
60. Shepherd, DJ 1995, ‘Some characteristics of Tasmanian rainfall’, Australian
Meteorological Magazine, vol. 44, pp. 261–74.
61. Grose, MR, Barnes-Keoghan, I, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz, GK, Bennett, JB,
Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania technical report –
general climate impacts.
62. Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, 2012, Trend in Annual
Total Rainfall 1970-2011 (mm/10yrs), <http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/
change/trendmaps.cgi?map=rain&area=tas&season=0112&period=1970>
63. Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, 2012, Annual Rainfall Tasmania, <http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=
rain&area=tas&season=0112&ave_yr=T>
Appendix 1
There is no significant change to projected total annual
rainfall over Tasmania under either the high emissions
(A2) and low emissions (B1) scenarios. However,
rainfall patterns across Tasmania and from season to
season show significant changes under these emissions
scenarios64. Projections show a steadily emerging
pattern of increased rainfall over Tasmania’s coastal
regions, and reduced rainfall over central Tasmania and
in the north-west.
A slight increase is projected in the total amount of
runoff in the State by 2100, although there is likely
to be localised variations experienced. For example,
runoff is projected to decrease markedly in the central
highlands, which will impact on water catchments
and therefore hydro-electric generation capacity in
the region. Runoff is likely to increase, however, in the
important agricultural regions of the Derwent Valley
and the Midlands over the same period65. Changes in
rainfall and runoff patterns may also impact on water
quality and availability for irrigation and drinking uses66.
34
Tasmania, with longer dry periods in between heavy
downpours. For example, St Helens in the State’s
north-east, experiences a high rainfall event on average
once every 200 years. This occurrence is projected to
increase and become a once in 20 years event by 2100.
The number of extreme wet days could also increase
by up to 25 per cent in both the south-west and
north-east of the State67.
The occurrence of hot summer days and heat waves
is also projected to increase. The largest increases
in extreme temperature are projected to occur in
the spring and autumn months, with increases of
greater than 4°C. The number of heat waves (where
maximum temperatures exceed 28°C for more than
three consecutive days) at Launceston for example,
is projected to increase progressively over the
coming decades to twice per year on average. This is
approximately four times more frequent than what is
currently experienced68.
Increasing temperature of surface waters
Increasing frequency and severity of extreme
events
Changes are expected to the frequency and severity
of extreme weather events. Rainfall intensity and
associated flooding is projected to increase across
64. Grose, MR, Barnes-Keoghan, I, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz, GK, Bennett, JB,
Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania technical report –
general climate impacts.
65. Bennett, JC, Ling, FLN, Graham, B, Grose, MR, Corney, SP, White, CJ, Holz,
GK, Post, DA, Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: water
and catchments technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative
Research Centre, Hobart.
66. National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Natural
Resource Management Ministerial Council (NRMMC) 2011, Australian Drinking
Water Guidelines Paper 6, National Water Quality Management Strategy, NHMRC,
NRMMC, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.
The surface waters off the east coast of Tasmania have
warmed by approximately 2°C over the past 60 years.
This is two to three times the global rate69. Ocean
temperatures are projected to increase further as the
warm East Australian Current is expected to extend
south along the Tasmanian coast70. The observed
strengthening of the East Australian Current is
consistent with projections that Tasmanian waters could
warm by another 2 to 3°C by 207071.
67. White, CJ, Sanabria, LA, Grose, MR, Corney, SP, Bennett, JC, Holz, GK,
McInnes, KL, Cechet, RP, Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for
Tasmania: extreme events technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart.
68. White, CJ, Sanabria, LA, Grose, MR, Corney, SP, Bennett, JC, Holz, GK,
McInnes, KL, Cechet, RP, Gaynor, SM & Bindoff, NL 2010, Climate Futures for
Tasmania: extreme events technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart.
69. Wu, L, Cai, W, Zhang, L, Nakamura, H, Timmerman, A, Joyce, T, McPhaden, MJ,
Alexander, M, Qiu, B, Visbeck, M, Chang, P & Giese, B 2012, ‘Enhanced warming
over the global subtropical western boundary currents’, Nature Climate Change.
70. Ridgway, K 2007, ‘Long-term trend and decadal variability of southward
penetration of the East Australian Current’, Geophysical Research Letters, 34.
71. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 2007,
Climate Change in Australia, http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/
documents/resources/TR_Web_Ch5i.pdf
Appendix 1
35
Sea level rise and storm surge
Other changes
Predicted changes in sea levels vary from location
to location due to a number of regional variations in
ocean density and dynamics, such as:
Tasmania can expect a number of other changes, including78:
ƒƒ El Nino/El Nina cycle, Trade Winds and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation72;
ƒƒ the impact of large current activity73;
ƒƒ thermal expansion, as water warms and expands in
Spring and Summer, and cools and shrinks in Autumn
and Winter74; and
ƒƒ changes to the ‘solid’ Earth and to the gravitational
field resulting from changes in land ice mass gains and
losses75.
ƒƒ an increase in relative humidity around the coasts and
a decrease over inland, and high-altitude regions, with a
different pattern in each season;
ƒƒ a reduction by approximately 50 per cent in the incidence
of frost by the end of the century;
ƒƒ a decrease in chill hours at sites below 500 m elevation, but
an increase in chill hours at higher elevation sites;
ƒƒ a modest increase in wind risk under a high emissions
scenario of up to 25 per cent by 2090; and
ƒƒ an overall reduction of less than 5 per cent in solar
radiation (sunshine), comprising a decrease on the east
coast and an increase on the west coast.
The IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 (TAR) and
Fourth Assessment Report 2007 (AR4) estimate a sea
level rise of between 26 cm and 59 cm by 2100 for the
‘no mitigation’ scenario (A1FI). It is estimated that the
contribution of melting ice sheets this century may also
substantially increase the upper end of this estimate to
76 cm by 209576.
Around Tasmania, the largest storm surges occur on
the south-east coast and the smallest on the northern
coast. Sea level rise under the no mitigations scenario
could lead to the water levels associated with a 1-in100 year storm tide event occurring as frequently as
once every 50 years by 203077.
72. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
2012, Historical sea level changes, <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_
last_15.html>
73. IPCC 2007, ‘Local Sea Level Change due to Change in Ocean Density and
Dynamics’, in Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis,
contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S, Quin, D, Manning, M,
Chen Z, Marquis, M, Averyt KB, Tignor, M, Miller, HL, (eds), Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, <http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/
ch10s10-6-2.html>
74. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
2012, Historical sea level changes, <http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_hist_
last_15.html>
75. Tamisiea, ME, Mitrovica, JX, 2011, ‘The Moving Boundaries of Sea Level
Change: Understanding the Origins of Geographic Variability’, Oceanography vol.
24 no. 2 pp.24-39
76. Garnaut, R 2011, Update paper five: the science of climate change, http://
www.garnautreview.org.au
77. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre 2010,
Climate Futures for Tasmania extreme events: the summary, ACE CRC, Hobart.
78. For further information on projected climate change impacts in Tasmania, see the
Climate Futures for Tasmania technical reports, http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/
climatechange/adapting/climate_futures/climate_futures_for_tasmania_reports
Appendix 2
36
Appendix 2
Actions recently completed or underway
Project
Project description
Project owner
Cross-priority-area adaptation actions
Climate Futures for
Tasmania
The Climate Futures for Tasmania project is the
Tasmanian Government's most important source
of climate change projections at a local scale. It
provides the first fine-scale climate information for
Tasmania.
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre
ClimateConnect
community grants
program
The ClimateConnect community grants program
provides funding for up $20 000 to local
government, natural resource management bodies,
research institutions, community groups and
industry peak bodies to support the Tasmanian
community to adapt to the risks and opportunities
from climate change.
Tasmanian Climate Change Office in the
Department of Premier of Cabinet (DPAC)
Adaptation Priority Area 1 – Human settlements and infrastructure
Tasmanian coastal
vulnerability project
Coastal inundation and vulnerability modelling at
the strategic level for regional planning purposes.
The Tasmanian Planning Commission, the
Tasmanian Climate Change Office and the
Division of Local Government and Security
and Emergency Management (DPAC) in
partnership with the University of Tasmania
Managing natural
hazards through land-use
planning
Statements are under development on the State’s
approach to managing natural hazards, such as
coastal erosion and inundation, flooding, storms,
bushfire and landslide through land-use planning.
These statements will bring together governance,
evidence and risk management as elements of
a framework to understand and improve the
Tasmanian Government’s response to natural
hazards.
The Division of Local Government and
Security and Emergency Management
Coastal management
and planning framework
The framework will support a consistent and
integrated approach to coastal management and
planning in Tasmania. It will also consider coastal
climate change impacts including responses to sea
level rise and coastal erosion.
The Tasmanian Planning Commission in
partnership with the Tasmanian Climate
Change Office and the Department
of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and
Environment
Sea level rise planning
allowances
Sea level rise planning allowances are an estimation
of future sea level rise and will provide guidance to
decision-makers to assist with managing the future
impacts of sea level rise on coastal areas as climate
change takes effect. Allowances for 2050 and 2100
are being established for Tasmania.
The Tasmanian Climate Change Office and
the Tasmanian Planning Commission, with
external advice from the Antarctic Climate
and Ecosystems Cooperative Research
Centre
Statewide planning
provisions
A number of statewide planning provisions
are under development for a range of issues
considered as being fundamental to delivering
good planning outcomes for use and development
in Tasmania. Statewide planning provisions
under preparation that address natural hazards,
and that assist in planning and adapting to the
consequences of climate change, are for the topic
areas of bushfire, landslide, flooding and coastal
hazards.
Tasmanian Planning Commission
Appendix 2
37
Regional planning
initiative
The three regional strategies released in 2011
consider climate change as a relevant factor.
Tasmanian Planning Commission
ClimateAsyst
A decision support tool that assists asset owners,
managers and planners assess the susceptibility of
their infrastructure to projected changes in climate.
Developed by pitt&sherry with support
from the Tasmanian Government
Coastal risk management
plan template
The template and supporting guideline have
been developed to assist local managers and
planners manage risks to assets in the coastal zone
vulnerable to sea level rise.
The Department of Primary Industries,
Parks, Water and Environment
Tasmanian Coastal
Adaptation Decision
Pathways project
The project will improve the decision-making
capacity of four Tasmanian councils to address
coastal hazards. This will be achieved by assisting
the councils to prioritise and implement coastal
adaptation investment options.
The Tasmanian Climate Change Office in
partnership with the Local Government
Association of Tasmania and the Tasmanian
Planning Commission. Funding provided by
the Australian Government
Regional councils climate
adaptation project
Climate change adaptation plans have been
prepared for the 12 participating councils in the
southern region. A southern regional adaptation
strategy has also been prepared, titled Regional
councils climate change adaptation strategy –
southern Tasmania 2012‑2017.
Southern Tasmanian Councils Authority in
partnership with the Tasmanian Climate
Change Office and the Local Government
Association of Tasmania
Premier’s Local
Government Council
work program on
climate change
Priority joint State and local government climate
change adaptation issues are being progressed
through the work program.
Tasmanian Climate Change Office in
partnership with the Local Government
Association of Tasmania and the Tasmanian
Planning Commission
Whole-of-asset risk
assessment
The whole-of-asset risk assessment will be
undertaken to identify those sections of the
Tasmanian road network more at risk from the
effects of climate change over the next 20 to
40 years for road infrastructure, and 100 years
for bridges. Outputs from this project will assist
the Department of Infrastructure, Energy and
Resources develop its work plan for the next 5 to
10 years.
Department of Infrastructure, Energy and
Resources
Climate change and
Tasmania’s heritage
A forum on climate change, extreme weather
events and Tasmania’s historic heritage places is
planned for forthcoming months.
Heritage Tasmania in partnership with the
Tasmanian Climate Change Office, the
Port Arthur Historic Site Management
Authority and the Australian branch of the
International Council on Monuments and
Sites
Adaptation Priority Area 2 – Natural systems
Tasmanian Coastal
Works Manual
The Tasmanian Coastal Works Manual – a best
practice guide for changing coastlines provides a
comprehensive tool for coastal land managers.
It seeks to improve the resilience of Tasmania’s
coastline to sustain future effects of climate change
and sea level rise.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment
Appendix 2
38
Policy for the
translocation of native
animals and plants
Some measures to adapt to climate change are
likely to require new policies, for example active
interventions such as species translocations. The
Tasmanian Government has recently developed a
policy for the translocation of native animals and
plants for conservation purposes which provides
a framework for assessing translocation proposals.
This framework is consistent with the International
Union for Conservation of Nature policies and
guidelines.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment
Vulnerability of
Tasmania’s natural
environment to climate
change
The report, Vulnerability of Tasmania’s natural
environment to climate change: an overview, provides
detailed assessment of the potential impacts of
climate change on Tasmania’s natural values to help
guide the development of policy and management
responses to climate change.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment
Developing adaptation
options for conserving
freshwater biodiversity
Joining the dots: integrating climate and hydrological
projections with freshwater ecosystem values to
develop adaptation options for conserving freshwater
biodiversity is a project that aims to establish
adaptation planning for freshwater biodiversity.
It will do this by integrating downscaled climate
model outputs with spatial freshwater biodiversity
conservation planning data to scope and prioritise
adaptation actions at local, regional and State
scales.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment in partnership
with the University of Tasmania. Funding
provided by the National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility
Tasmanian Seed
Conservation Centre
The Tasmanian Seed Conservation Centre is a part
of an international network of seed bank programs
The project aims to provide an ‘insurance policy’
against the extinction of plants in the wild by
storing seeds for future use. Plant species identified
as potentially at risk from climate change are a
priority. The Tasmanian Seed Conservation Centre
is also addressing seed dormancy and germination
issues critical to the future success of translocation
programs and interventions.
The seed bank initiative is a collaboration
between the Royal Tasmanian Botanical
Gardens, Department of Primary Industries,
Parks, Water and Environment and the
State Herbarium
A monitoring program
for montane conifers
Research indicates that montane conifers (such as
King Billy Pine and Pencil Pine) may be at risk from
climate change. This program has been established
to monitor their habitat and distribution.
The Department of Primary Industries,
Parks, Water and Environment’s Biodiversity
Conservation Branch
Monitoring the impact
of climate change on
Tasmania’s World
Heritage Areas
The impact of climate change on the flora and
vegetation values of Tasmania’s World Heritage
Areas have recently been reviewed.
The Department of Primary Industries,
Parks, Water and Environment’s Biodiversity
Conservation Branch under the World
Heritage Area Program
Future plant species risk
tool
Using information from the Climate Futures for
Tasmania project and additional modelling, a tool
has been developed that takes account of weather
patterns interstate, the extent of interstate
outbreaks, possible climate shifts in Tasmania and
estimates risk windows and extent or risk lifecycle
completions (and ongoing establishment) of
quarantine fruit flies.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment
Appendix 2
39
Redmap
The REDMAP website enables the community to
spot, log and map marine species not common in
Tasmanian waters.
Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies,
supported by the Tasmanian Government
Protection of refugia
The Southern Tasmania regional land use strategy
2010–2035 is a planning policy that provides
for the protection of key refugia. The strategy
guides land use, development and infrastructure
investment decisions made across the region by
the Tasmanian Government, local government and
infrastructure providers.
Southern Tasmanian Councils Authority in
partnership with the Tasmanian Planning
Commission
Landscape restoration
The Biodiverse carbon for landscape restoration:
the establishment of a permanent research site in
the Derwent catchment project will help build the
capacity of the Bothwell and Hamilton agricultural
regions to adapt the impacts of climate change.
The Tasmanian Government in partnership
with Greening Australia and the University
of Tasmania
ClimateConnect grant
program funded projects
The ClimateConnect grant program provides
funding to assist community groups, local
government or industry organisations to adapt
to the impacts of climate change. Current and
previously completed projects can be viewed
online1.
The Tasmanian Climate Change Office
in partnership with a broad range of
applicants including community groups,
Local Government, research institutions
and industry
Adaptation Priority Area 3 – Water management
Tasmanian sustainable
yields project
The sustainable yields project provided information
on potential changes to water resources including
surface water and groundwater availability for
environmental, irrigation and recreational uses.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation and the
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment
Adaptation Priority Area 4 – Industry sectors
Agricultural futures
project
Case studies, information sheets and presentations
for key agricultural sectors on climate change
impacts and adaptation options were developed
through the project. Further analysis is also being
undertaken of how climate change will impact on
a number of Tasmania’s key agricultural sectors and
regions.
Tasmanian Climate Change Office in
partnership with the Tasmanian Institute
of Agriculture and the Department of
Primary Industries, Parks, Water and
Environment
Adaptation of fishing and
aquaculture sectors and
fisheries management to
climate change in southeast Australia
As part of this project, Tasmanian case studies on
abalone, rock lobster, snapper and blue grenadier
will be used to assess the capacity of fisheries
management to adapt to forecast changes in these
specific fisheries.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks,
Water and Environment in collaboration
with the Institute of Marine and Antarctic
Studies are participants in this national
project
Future farming –
managing risks and
opportunities
Future farming – managing risks and opportunities
is a theme area for the Tasmanian Institute of
Agriculture (TIA). Through this theme area, TIA
will identify opportunities and support ways to
benefit from a highly variable global environment
while working to offset negative impacts of climate
change, variability and other large scale risks.
The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture is
a joint venture between the University of
Tasmania and the Tasmanian Government
Appendix 2
40
Adaptation Priority Area 5 – Emergency management
Fire risk, natural hazards
and policy responses in
Tasmania
The Climate Futures for Tasmania results will be
extended to a study on fire risk, natural hazards
and policy responses in Tasmania.
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems
Cooperative Research Centre, with funding
from the Tasmanian Government’s Natural
Disaster Resilience Program
Development and use in
bushfire prone areas
The Tasmanian Government has reviewed
arrangements for development and use in bushfire
prone areas and agreed to implement new
arrangements to ensure that appropriate standards
are consistently applied to the construction of
houses and other buildings in bushfire-prone
areas in Tasmania. This includes the definition of a
‘bushfire-prone area’ for the purposes of applying
the relevant national standards for construction,
and a requirement that all new subdivisions
incorporate bushfire mitigation measures including
appropriate separation distances between
buildings and bushfire-prone vegetation and a
certified bushfire safety plan.
State Emergency Service
Tasmanian State
emergency risks
assessment project
A State emergency risk register is being developed
to record Tasmania’s most significant risks, including
natural hazards, to help inform strategic risk
management. Climate change projections are being
considered as part of the assessment of the likely
consequences arising from significant events.
State Emergency Service
Fuel reduction burning
The Tasmanian Government instigated a new
program of planned fuel reduction burning. The
objective is to create corridors of low fuel to
reduce the risk of large wildfires. Strategic fire
management plans are now in place for the whole
State.
Tasmanian Fire Service, Forestry Tasmania,
Parks and Wildlife Service
Adaptation Priority Area 6 – Human health
Climate change
health impact and risk
assessment tool
Through the project, an IT-based tool for local
government-led assessments of whole-ofcommunity health risks related to climate change
impacts will be developed. The tool will identify
proactive health adaptation and some mitigation
actions that can be implemented by communities,
local government and State and regional policy
makers in response to health-related climate
change issues.
University of Tasmania with support from
the Tasmanian Climate Change Office
Vector-borne disease in
Tasmania under climate
change project
This project brings together unconnected
knowledge about the socio-biophysical factors
important to creating vector-borne disease (VBD)
risk and vulnerability conditions in the context of
climate change in Tasmania.
University of Tasmania with support from
the Tasmanian Climate Change Office
1. www.climatechange.tas.gov.au/grants/climateconnect_grants/previous_rounds
Appendix 3
41
Appendix 3
Template for providing feedback on the Adapting
to Climate Change in Tasmania Issues Paper
At the end of each section of the Adapting to Climate Change in Tasmania Issues Paper questions are provided to help generate
comments and ideas. Please respond to the questions that are most relevant to you and if you have any views not covered by the
questions, please also include those comments in your feedback..
The feedback received in response to this Paper will help inform the Tasmanian Government’s approach to climate change adaptation
into the future, with a particular focus on specific actions for inclusion in the 2020 Climate Action Plan to be released in 2013.
Date of submission:
Contact details:
Name of organisation:
(if applicable)
Name of author/contact person:
Phone number:
Email:
Submissions in response to this Paper will be made publicly available. If you would like your
submission to remain confidential please tick the box below.
Please tick this box if you would like your submission to be treated as confidential
When preparing a submission please note
Feedback is open until 5pm Friday, 16 November 2012 to be forwarded to the Tasmanian Climate Change Office by:
Email to [email protected] with the subject: Adaptation Unit
Or mail to:
Adaptation Unit
Tasmanian Climate Change Office
Department of Premier and Cabinet
GPO Box 123
Hobart TAS 7001
Appendix 3
42
?
FEEDBACK QUESTIONS
You do not need to answer all questions. Please respond to the questions that are
most relevant to you
SECTION 1: Adaptation and the changing climate
Q1. Have you noticed changes in the climate? Are you concerned that the projected changes to the Tasmanian climate are
likely to impact on your local and regional community, industry, natural or built environment?
If yes:
ƒƒ what activities/industries will be affected?
ƒƒ what actions to adapt to climate change could be taken to lessen any negative impacts?
ƒƒ are any of these changes likely to be positive?
ƒƒ over what timeframe is the action required?
ƒƒ what types of costs would be involved? Would the proposed actions be cost effective?
Q2. What kind of information would assist your community or local industries to adapt to the challenges arising from the
projected climate changes?
Q3. Other than information, what other types of support, assistance or activities would help build resilience in communities
and industries to adapt to the impacts of the changing climate?
Q4. Could projected changes to the climate provide opportunities for your community, local industry or Tasmania more
generally?
If yes:
ƒƒ what are these opportunities?
ƒƒ how can we make the most of these opportunities?
SECTION 2: Roles and responsibilities in climate change adaptation
Q5. The Section above identifies four key roles for the Tasmanian Government in climate change adaptation.
ƒƒ Do you think these roles are clear and appropriate?
ƒƒ Do you have any suggested additions or deletions to the roles?
Q6. Do you feel confident that the Tasmanian Government roles and responsibilities presented in this section can support
actions to adapt to climate change in your community, local industry or Tasmania more generally? If not, why? What
would be a better approach?
Appendix 3
SECTION 3: Adaptation Priority Areas
Adaptation Priority Area 1 – Human settlements and infrastructure
Q7. How can we build resilience capacity in our communities to plan for, live with and manage the climate change risks our
human settlements and infrastructure are likely to face?
Q8. Do you think parts of our infrastructure networks are at risk as a result of climate change impacts?
If yes:
ƒƒ what is at risk?
ƒƒ what actions to adapt to climate change could be taken to lessen these risks?
ƒƒ over what timeframe is the action required?
Q9. How can the adaptation of infrastructure that is privately-owned be encouraged and improved?
Q10. What barriers are there to adapting to the impacts of climate change on human settlements and infrastructure?
Q11. What opportunities are there to adapt our human settlements and infrastructure to the challenges of climate change?
Q12. What information is required to help manage climate change risks to human settlements and local infrastructure?
Adaptation Priority Area 2 – Natural systems
Q13. What are the most pressing risks and opportunities that our natural systems are likely to face as the climate changes?
Q14. What actions could be taken to enable our natural systems to cope with the risks they are likely to face as the climate
changes? Over what timeframe is the action required?
Q15. What strategies, mechanism and tools can best facilitate adaptation in natural systems at the local or regional level?
Q16. What barriers are there to adapting to climate change impacts on natural systems?
Q17. What information is required to help manage the climate change risks to our key and threatened natural systems?
43
Appendix 3
Adaptation Priority Area 3 – Water management
Q18. What policy responses will be necessary to accommodate changing water availability patterns and competition for
water resources?
Q19. How can we continue to improve the coordination and integration of water management across levels of government
and industry sectors?
Q20. How can we work with major water users prepare for the water supply and quality issues they may face?
Q21. What barriers are there to adapting to impacts of climate change on water management?
Q22. What information is required to support water management priorities?
Adaptation Priority Area 4 – Industry sectors
Q23. Are you aware of industries that have identified climate change risks, developed adaptation plans or taken actions to
adapt to those risks?
If yes:
ƒƒ what actions have they undertaken/planned to take? And over what timeframes?
ƒƒ are partnerships with other sectors or the community involved?
ƒƒ what can we learn from their experience?
Q24. How can we best support our key industries to be resilient and adapt to the challenges they face from climate change?
Q25. What other industries are likely to be directly affected by the impacts of climate change and how can we help them
take action to adapt?
Q26. What economic opportunities are emerging, or are likely to emerge, from the changing climate?
Q27. What barriers are there to adapting to the impacts of climate change on industry sectors?
Q28. What information is required to help manage the climate change risks to our key industries?
44
Appendix 3
45
Adaptation Priority Area 5 – Natural Disasters
Q29. How can we best manage at-risk land to reduce the expected increase in of natural hazards as a result of climate
change?
Q30. What actions could be taken to manage the increase in risk of natural hazards that the community may face as a result
of the changing climate? Over what timeframe is the action required?
Q31. What actions could be taken to build community resilience (such as preparedness and preventative strategies) to
support our community in responding to natural disasters?
Q32. What challengers are there to managing the risks posed by natural disasters predicted as a result of climate change?
Q33. What information is required to help manage the predicted increase in natural hazards as a result of climate change?
Adaptation Priority Area 6 – Human health and vulnerable communities
Q34. How can we build resilience in our communities to adapt to the health challenges we are likely to face?
Q35. Which sections of our community are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change?
Q36. How can health services best adapt to the changing patterns of health conditions expected as a result of climate
change?
Q37. What actions could be taken to reduce the risks to people’s health and our vulnerable communities in Tasmania? over
what timeframe is the action required? And what types of costs would be involved?
Q38. What barriers are there to adapting to the impacts of climate change on human health and our vulnerable
communities?
Q39. What information is required to help manage climate change risks to human health and our vulnerable communities?
Thank you for your feedback and for helping to shape Tasmania’s actions to adapt
to the challenges and opportunities of the changing climate.
SUBMIT
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