Download Natural systems

SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
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Natural systems
Tasmania is recognised globally for its
diverse and unique terrestrial, freshwater
and marine plants, animals and landforms,
and for its extensive temperate wilderness
areas. Our terrestrial natural areas are
represented in both privately and publicly
owned land. Approximately 45 per cent
of the State’s landmass, which is protected
in public reserves, including the Tasmanian
Wilderness and Macquarie Island World
Heritage Areas which are rich in geological
and other natural values. The Tasmanian
marine and coastal environments are
also characterised by rich biodiversity,
heterogeneous coastal landforms and a
plethora of offshore island habitats. There
are 21 marine reserves declared within
Tasmanian waters.
The value of Tasmania’s biodiversity – both its intrinsic
natural value and the ecosystem services it provides – is
fundamental to our lifestyle and quality of life as well as the
ongoing strength of the State economy. Predicted changes
such as decreased rainfall, increased temperature, and the
increased frequency of extreme events are likely to impact on
biodiversity and other natural values. Different regions will be
affected in different ways.
Changes to the climate are likely to affect water quality and
storage, air quality, soil retention and other outputs of the
natural environment important for human health and wellbeing. They also impact natural processes17. For example,
heavy rain events separated by long periods of dry weather,
will increase the chances of soil erosion and runoff into water
catchments. The increased sediment in the runoff could
negatively impact both the land eroded and water quality.
17. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for Environmental Services
in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working Paper No. 06–15,The Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
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SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
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Climate risks and opportunities
Risks that terrestrial systems are likely to face include:
Independent of climate change, Tasmanian natural
values already face a range of threats and disturbances
from activity such as fire and invasive species. Climate
change, however, may exacerbate these threats or
lead to complex interactions when combined. One
of the greatest challenges in predicting the effects of
climate change is the uncertainty associated with the
interaction of different climate change effects with other
stressors. The changing climate could undermine, or
alternatively enhance, efforts to reduce the effects of
other types of disturbances such as fire, invasive species
and habitat fragmentation. The influence of a changing
climate therefore cannot be considered merely as ‘one
more stressor’, but must be considered in every natural
resource management activity.
ƒƒ impacts on soils, leading to changes in soil
hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and
sedimentation;
ƒƒ increasing temperatures and snow cover declines will
result in a decline in alpine and sub-alpine habitats
area, threatening species such as the King Billy pine;
ƒƒ ecosystems vulnerable to fire, such as Tasmania’s
temperature rainforests, are likely to be placed under
increased pressure from climate change; and
ƒƒ a reduction in rainfall is likely to impact
a number of terrestrial systems such as
peatlands, which are vulnerable to oxidation
and a reduction in the rate of peat
accumulation as a result of reduced rainfall.
Species currently under existing pressure, such
as Eucalyptus gunnii are likely to experience
further stress as a result of reduced rainfall.
Climate change might also increase community
expectations that the Government will act to protect
natural assets at all costs, for example through “hardening”
the coastline to reduce erosion and increasing prescribed
burning to reduce bushfire risks. As discussed in Section
2, in undertaking its roles, the Government’s adaptation
response will be guided by the following risk-based
considerations:
ƒƒ risks arising from climate change can be managed; and
ƒƒ people should not be subsidised for living in
hazardous areas, but some assistance to support
transition might be appropriate.
Natural systems may also be subject to additional or
new risks as a consequence of actions in other areas.
Agriculture and water management sectors in particular
could have significant effects on natural systems.
Terrestrial systems
Climate change is likely to lead to ecosystem changes,
including local species extinctions. Changes such as
decreased rainfall and increased temperature and
frequency of extreme events will affect natural systems
and diversity in different regions in Tasmania.
Freshwater systems
Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems are considered to be
one of the most vulnerable to climate change18. Water
quantity and temperature change, which are key issues
for the ecological health of freshwater systems under
climate change. Water quantity influences a range of
issues, such as water quality, maintenance of habitat, and
sustaining aquatic and riparian flora and fauna19.
Risks that freshwater systems are likely to face include:
ƒƒ a potential reduction in the amount of suitable
habitat available for aquatic species as a result of
changed rainfall and runoff patterns. For example
as stream flows decline, the water temperature
can increase in river systems and reduce dissolved
oxygen levels. This could affect species such as the
giant freshwater crayfish, which require a more stable,
low water temperature20;
ƒƒ increased bank erosion, loss of riparian vegetation
and increased sedimentation as a result of longer
periods of dry weather, separated by heavier rain
events. This in turn could impact on bank stability and
habitat availability;
18. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for
Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working
Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
19. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for
Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working
Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
20. Richardson, J, Boubee, JA, West, DW 1994, ‘Thermal tolerance and
preference of some native New Zealand freshwater fish’, New Zealand Journal
of Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 28, pp. 399–407.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
ƒƒ increased threats from invasive species and erosion;
ƒƒ additional pressure on inland wetlands as a result of
the combined effect of the predicted changes to the
climate, such as changes in rainfall patterns, longer
periods of dry weather, increased temperatures, and
changes in wind patterns; and
ƒƒ freshwater wetlands close to sea level are at
risk of saltwater intrusion and the effects of
storm surges.
Freshwater systems are also vulnerable to activities that
impact water use, quality and run-off21, including actions
to adapt to climate change that could be taken to
protect other systems.
Marine systems
Changes to environmental variables such as ocean
temperature, currents, winds, nutrient supply, rainfall,
ocean chemistry and the incidence of extreme weather
conditions are likely to have significant impacts on
marine ecosystems22.
Risks that marine systems are likely to face include:
ƒƒ Oceans becoming more acidic as a result of a
reduction in the natural absorption of carbon
dioxide by oceans and reducing their pH levels23.
In turn, lower pH levels will also reduce the
concentrations of essential compounds that are vital
for the formation of shells and skeletons of marine
organisms.
ƒƒ Increasing water temperature is likely to result in
Tasmania experiencing:
–– a shift in species distributions, such as
the southern rock lobster and abalone
fisheries24;
–– the further introduction and establishment
of invasive species, as is already evident in
the establishment of the long spined sea
urchin in local waters; and
21. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, 2001, National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Freshwater Biodiversity <http://www.
nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files/NCCARF%20FWB_FINAL_
summary.pdf>
22. Hobday, AJ, Poloczanska, ES, & Matear, RJ (eds) 2008, Implications of climate
change for Australian fisheries and aquaculture: a preliminary assessment, report
to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra.
23. Hobday, AJ, Okey, TA, Poloczanska, ES, Kunz, TJ & Richardson, AJ (eds) 2006,
Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: Part A, executive summary,
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra.
24. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
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–– a decline in marine biodiversity is highly
likely25. Kelp forests are already reducing
in distribution and abundance and cold
water corals are also expected to decline
in response to both warming waters and
increased ocean acidity.
The impact of climate change on marine systems such
as fish and krill populations are expected to impact on
higher order predators such as seals, whales, seabirds
and penguins26.
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
The Tasmanian Coastal Works Manual aims to increase
coastal managers’ knowledge and awareness of a wide
range of coastal land management issues. This will
improve the resilience of Tasmania’s coastline to the
future effects of climate change and sea level rise.
Through the ClimateConnect grant program, the
Tasmanian Government is currently supporting
Greening Australia Tasmania in a project to adapt to the
impacts of drought and fire in the high risk area of Mt
Nelson. A project is also being delivered through the
grant program by the University of Tasmania to increase
reporting capacity to detect shifting marine species.
The Tasmanian Government has partnered with the
University of Tasmania on the National Climate Change
Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) Joining the dots
project to integrate climate and hydrological projections
with freshwater ecosystem values to develop adaptation
options for conserving freshwater biodiversity.
25. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
26. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild
Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project
<http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open>
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
Taking climate change risks and
opportunities into account in public policy,
planning and regulation
The Tasmanian Government is modifying a number of
existing policy and management plans, such as all new
threatened species recovery plans, to take into account
the threats posed by climate change. The designs of
existing land management programs have also been
modified in response to climate change. For example,
the Private Land Conservation Program’s traditional
criteria used for conservation planning have been
expanded to include connectivity, landscape function
and resilience. The Government also acknowledges that
some measures to adapt to climate change are likely
to require new policies, as such, has developed a policy
for the translocation of native animals and plants for
conservation purposes to assist with active adaptation
intervention.
Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
The Tasmanian Government undertakes or contributes
to a range of research projects to better manage
climate change risks to the State’s natural systems. The
Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate
Change: An Overview27 provides a detailed assessment of
the potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s
natural values to help guide the development of policy
and management responses. Changing disease, pest
and weed profiles are also very likely to occur with
climate change and the Government is working to
include climate change considerations into Tasmania’s
biosecurity risk analyses.
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The Tasmanian Government is working with other
spheres of government on a range of natural systems
adaptation matters. For example, the protection of
refugia has been identified as a key adaptation priority
for the protection of biodiversity in the Southern
Tasmania Regional Land Use Strategy 2010–2035, a joint
State and Local Government strategy to guide land use
and development in the south of the State over the
next two decades.
The Government also supported the establishment of
the Redmap website28 which enables the community
to log and map sightings of marine species that are not
common in Tasmanian waters.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
Through the five-year project Biodiverse Carbon for
Landscape Restoration: the Establishment of a Permanent
Research Site in the Derwent Catchment, the capacity of
the Bothwell and Hamilton agricultural regions to adapt
to the impacts of climate change will be strengthened.
The Tasmanian Government is also working in
partnership with the State’s three regional National
Resource Management (NRM) organisations
to support adaptation in natural systems. These
partnerships support adaptation work, as is shown in
NRM South’s strategy for 2010-15, which highlights
enhancing the resilience of local communities as one of
its key improvement objectives29.
The Tasmanian Seed Conservation Centre, managed
by the Royal Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, is part of
an international coalition with the Millennium Seed
Bank. This initiative will provide an ‘insurance policy’
against the extinction of plants in the wild by storing
seeds for future use. The Centre is also addressing
seed dormancy and germination issues to improve
the effectiveness of restoration and revegetation
programs. This work is critical for the future success of
translocation programs and interventions.
27. A second report, Overview of the report: potential climate change impacts
on geodiversity in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, produced by
the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, looks at
approaches to the potential impacts of climate change on geodiversity values in
western Tasmania.
28. http://www.redmap.org.au/
29. Southern Regional Committee for Natural Resource Management (NRM
South), 2010, Natural Resource Management Strategy for Southern Tasmania
2010-2015, <http://www.nrmsouth.org.au/uploaded/287/15131081_48nrm_
strategy_sth_tas_20.pdf>
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses for
natural systems, including:
ƒƒ recognising the vital role that healthy natural systems
play in supporting prosperous communities and vibrant
economies;
ƒƒ developing new approaches to manage the impacts
of climate change, existing threats and the complex
interactions between them;
ƒƒ giving priority to conducting risk assessments for
species (including invasive species), ecosystems and
natural processes in developing management and
recovery plans;
ƒƒ ensuring management strategies are flexible to allow
for readjustment as new information arises; and
ƒƒ considering the impact of changes to natural systems
on environmental services and the value that
environmental services provide to both human wellbeing and to maintaining natural processes.
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Your feedback
Q13. What are the most pressing risks and
opportunities that our natural systems are likely
to face as the climate changes?
Q14. What actions could be taken to enable our
natural systems to cope with the risks they are
likely to face as the climate changes? Over what
timeframe is the action required?
Q15. What strategies, mechanism and tools can best
facilitate adaptation in natural systems at the local
or regional level?
Q16. What barriers are there to adapting to climate
change impacts on natural systems?
Q17. What information is required to help manage the
climate change risks to our key and threatened
natural systems?