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SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two 2 Natural systems Tasmania is recognised globally for its diverse and unique terrestrial, freshwater and marine plants, animals and landforms, and for its extensive temperate wilderness areas. Our terrestrial natural areas are represented in both privately and publicly owned land. Approximately 45 per cent of the State’s landmass, which is protected in public reserves, including the Tasmanian Wilderness and Macquarie Island World Heritage Areas which are rich in geological and other natural values. The Tasmanian marine and coastal environments are also characterised by rich biodiversity, heterogeneous coastal landforms and a plethora of offshore island habitats. There are 21 marine reserves declared within Tasmanian waters. The value of Tasmania’s biodiversity – both its intrinsic natural value and the ecosystem services it provides – is fundamental to our lifestyle and quality of life as well as the ongoing strength of the State economy. Predicted changes such as decreased rainfall, increased temperature, and the increased frequency of extreme events are likely to impact on biodiversity and other natural values. Different regions will be affected in different ways. Changes to the climate are likely to affect water quality and storage, air quality, soil retention and other outputs of the natural environment important for human health and wellbeing. They also impact natural processes17. For example, heavy rain events separated by long periods of dry weather, will increase the chances of soil erosion and runoff into water catchments. The increased sediment in the runoff could negatively impact both the land eroded and water quality. 17. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working Paper No. 06–15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 14 SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two 15 Climate risks and opportunities Risks that terrestrial systems are likely to face include: Independent of climate change, Tasmanian natural values already face a range of threats and disturbances from activity such as fire and invasive species. Climate change, however, may exacerbate these threats or lead to complex interactions when combined. One of the greatest challenges in predicting the effects of climate change is the uncertainty associated with the interaction of different climate change effects with other stressors. The changing climate could undermine, or alternatively enhance, efforts to reduce the effects of other types of disturbances such as fire, invasive species and habitat fragmentation. The influence of a changing climate therefore cannot be considered merely as ‘one more stressor’, but must be considered in every natural resource management activity. impacts on soils, leading to changes in soil hydrology, soil organic carbon, salinity, erosion and sedimentation; increasing temperatures and snow cover declines will result in a decline in alpine and sub-alpine habitats area, threatening species such as the King Billy pine; ecosystems vulnerable to fire, such as Tasmania’s temperature rainforests, are likely to be placed under increased pressure from climate change; and a reduction in rainfall is likely to impact a number of terrestrial systems such as peatlands, which are vulnerable to oxidation and a reduction in the rate of peat accumulation as a result of reduced rainfall. Species currently under existing pressure, such as Eucalyptus gunnii are likely to experience further stress as a result of reduced rainfall. Climate change might also increase community expectations that the Government will act to protect natural assets at all costs, for example through “hardening” the coastline to reduce erosion and increasing prescribed burning to reduce bushfire risks. As discussed in Section 2, in undertaking its roles, the Government’s adaptation response will be guided by the following risk-based considerations: risks arising from climate change can be managed; and people should not be subsidised for living in hazardous areas, but some assistance to support transition might be appropriate. Natural systems may also be subject to additional or new risks as a consequence of actions in other areas. Agriculture and water management sectors in particular could have significant effects on natural systems. Terrestrial systems Climate change is likely to lead to ecosystem changes, including local species extinctions. Changes such as decreased rainfall and increased temperature and frequency of extreme events will affect natural systems and diversity in different regions in Tasmania. Freshwater systems Tasmania’s freshwater ecosystems are considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change18. Water quantity and temperature change, which are key issues for the ecological health of freshwater systems under climate change. Water quantity influences a range of issues, such as water quality, maintenance of habitat, and sustaining aquatic and riparian flora and fauna19. Risks that freshwater systems are likely to face include: a potential reduction in the amount of suitable habitat available for aquatic species as a result of changed rainfall and runoff patterns. For example as stream flows decline, the water temperature can increase in river systems and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. This could affect species such as the giant freshwater crayfish, which require a more stable, low water temperature20; increased bank erosion, loss of riparian vegetation and increased sedimentation as a result of longer periods of dry weather, separated by heavier rain events. This in turn could impact on bank stability and habitat availability; 18. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 19. Zilberman, D, Lipper, L, McCarthy, N, 2006, Putting Payments for Environmental Services in the Context of Economic Development, ESA Working Paper No. 06-15,The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 20. Richardson, J, Boubee, JA, West, DW 1994, ‘Thermal tolerance and preference of some native New Zealand freshwater fish’, New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, vol. 28, pp. 399–407. SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two increased threats from invasive species and erosion; additional pressure on inland wetlands as a result of the combined effect of the predicted changes to the climate, such as changes in rainfall patterns, longer periods of dry weather, increased temperatures, and changes in wind patterns; and freshwater wetlands close to sea level are at risk of saltwater intrusion and the effects of storm surges. Freshwater systems are also vulnerable to activities that impact water use, quality and run-off21, including actions to adapt to climate change that could be taken to protect other systems. Marine systems Changes to environmental variables such as ocean temperature, currents, winds, nutrient supply, rainfall, ocean chemistry and the incidence of extreme weather conditions are likely to have significant impacts on marine ecosystems22. Risks that marine systems are likely to face include: Oceans becoming more acidic as a result of a reduction in the natural absorption of carbon dioxide by oceans and reducing their pH levels23. In turn, lower pH levels will also reduce the concentrations of essential compounds that are vital for the formation of shells and skeletons of marine organisms. Increasing water temperature is likely to result in Tasmania experiencing: –– a shift in species distributions, such as the southern rock lobster and abalone fisheries24; –– the further introduction and establishment of invasive species, as is already evident in the establishment of the long spined sea urchin in local waters; and 21. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, 2001, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Freshwater Biodiversity <http://www. nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/attached_files/NCCARF%20FWB_FINAL_ summary.pdf> 22. Hobday, AJ, Poloczanska, ES, & Matear, RJ (eds) 2008, Implications of climate change for Australian fisheries and aquaculture: a preliminary assessment, report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra. 23. Hobday, AJ, Okey, TA, Poloczanska, ES, Kunz, TJ & Richardson, AJ (eds) 2006, Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life: Part A, executive summary, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra. 24. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project <http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open> 16 –– a decline in marine biodiversity is highly likely25. Kelp forests are already reducing in distribution and abundance and cold water corals are also expected to decline in response to both warming waters and increased ocean acidity. The impact of climate change on marine systems such as fish and krill populations are expected to impact on higher order predators such as seals, whales, seabirds and penguins26. Action so far by the Government Providing sound public information at the regional and local level The Tasmanian Coastal Works Manual aims to increase coastal managers’ knowledge and awareness of a wide range of coastal land management issues. This will improve the resilience of Tasmania’s coastline to the future effects of climate change and sea level rise. Through the ClimateConnect grant program, the Tasmanian Government is currently supporting Greening Australia Tasmania in a project to adapt to the impacts of drought and fire in the high risk area of Mt Nelson. A project is also being delivered through the grant program by the University of Tasmania to increase reporting capacity to detect shifting marine species. The Tasmanian Government has partnered with the University of Tasmania on the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF) Joining the dots project to integrate climate and hydrological projections with freshwater ecosystem values to develop adaptation options for conserving freshwater biodiversity. 25. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project <http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open> 26. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Wild Fisheries Management Branch, 2012, Long Spined Sea Urchin Research Project <http://www.dpipwe.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/SCAN-7DRVHC?open> SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two Taking climate change risks and opportunities into account in public policy, planning and regulation The Tasmanian Government is modifying a number of existing policy and management plans, such as all new threatened species recovery plans, to take into account the threats posed by climate change. The designs of existing land management programs have also been modified in response to climate change. For example, the Private Land Conservation Program’s traditional criteria used for conservation planning have been expanded to include connectivity, landscape function and resilience. The Government also acknowledges that some measures to adapt to climate change are likely to require new policies, as such, has developed a policy for the translocation of native animals and plants for conservation purposes to assist with active adaptation intervention. Managing climate change risks and impacts to State-owned and managed infrastructure, assets and services The Tasmanian Government undertakes or contributes to a range of research projects to better manage climate change risks to the State’s natural systems. The Vulnerability of Tasmania’s Natural Environment to Climate Change: An Overview27 provides a detailed assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Tasmania’s natural values to help guide the development of policy and management responses. Changing disease, pest and weed profiles are also very likely to occur with climate change and the Government is working to include climate change considerations into Tasmania’s biosecurity risk analyses. 17 The Tasmanian Government is working with other spheres of government on a range of natural systems adaptation matters. For example, the protection of refugia has been identified as a key adaptation priority for the protection of biodiversity in the Southern Tasmania Regional Land Use Strategy 2010–2035, a joint State and Local Government strategy to guide land use and development in the south of the State over the next two decades. The Government also supported the establishment of the Redmap website28 which enables the community to log and map sightings of marine species that are not common in Tasmanian waters. Assisting vulnerable communities to build climate resilience and adaptive capacity Through the five-year project Biodiverse Carbon for Landscape Restoration: the Establishment of a Permanent Research Site in the Derwent Catchment, the capacity of the Bothwell and Hamilton agricultural regions to adapt to the impacts of climate change will be strengthened. The Tasmanian Government is also working in partnership with the State’s three regional National Resource Management (NRM) organisations to support adaptation in natural systems. These partnerships support adaptation work, as is shown in NRM South’s strategy for 2010-15, which highlights enhancing the resilience of local communities as one of its key improvement objectives29. The Tasmanian Seed Conservation Centre, managed by the Royal Tasmanian Botanical Gardens, is part of an international coalition with the Millennium Seed Bank. This initiative will provide an ‘insurance policy’ against the extinction of plants in the wild by storing seeds for future use. The Centre is also addressing seed dormancy and germination issues to improve the effectiveness of restoration and revegetation programs. This work is critical for the future success of translocation programs and interventions. 27. A second report, Overview of the report: potential climate change impacts on geodiversity in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, produced by the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, looks at approaches to the potential impacts of climate change on geodiversity values in western Tasmania. 28. http://www.redmap.org.au/ 29. Southern Regional Committee for Natural Resource Management (NRM South), 2010, Natural Resource Management Strategy for Southern Tasmania 2010-2015, <http://www.nrmsouth.org.au/uploaded/287/15131081_48nrm_ strategy_sth_tas_20.pdf> SECTION 3: Adaption priority area two Future directions A wide range of issues will need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation responses for natural systems, including: recognising the vital role that healthy natural systems play in supporting prosperous communities and vibrant economies; developing new approaches to manage the impacts of climate change, existing threats and the complex interactions between them; giving priority to conducting risk assessments for species (including invasive species), ecosystems and natural processes in developing management and recovery plans; ensuring management strategies are flexible to allow for readjustment as new information arises; and considering the impact of changes to natural systems on environmental services and the value that environmental services provide to both human wellbeing and to maintaining natural processes. 18 ? Your feedback Q13. What are the most pressing risks and opportunities that our natural systems are likely to face as the climate changes? Q14. What actions could be taken to enable our natural systems to cope with the risks they are likely to face as the climate changes? Over what timeframe is the action required? Q15. What strategies, mechanism and tools can best facilitate adaptation in natural systems at the local or regional level? Q16. What barriers are there to adapting to climate change impacts on natural systems? Q17. What information is required to help manage the climate change risks to our key and threatened natural systems?