Download 4 Industry sectors

SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
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Industry sectors
Many of Tasmania’s major industries, such as
agriculture, wild fisheries and aquaculture,
forestry, and tourism will be impacted by
climate change.
Tasmania has a strong agricultural tradition and the agriculture
sector is highly diversified. Important sub-sectors include
mixed farming enterprises, dairy, fruit, vegetables, red meat,
wool, poppies and viticulture as well as niche production
such as seeds, honey, ginseng, olives, truffles and essential
oils. Agriculture plays an important role in the Tasmanian
economy, with a total farm gate value in 2009-10 of around
$1.15 billion35.
Aquaculture and wild fisheries are also major industries in the
State. The aquaculture industry primarily consists of salmonid
(salmon and trout) production. In 2009-10 Tasmania’s
salmonid sector had a gross value of $362.4 million. Other
significant sub – sectors include oysters ($21.2 million),
abalone ($5.1 million) and mussels ($3.4 million). The
major products from wild fisheries include scalefish, lobster
(production valued at approximately $65.2 million) and
abalone (approximately $94.6 million)36.
The Tasmanian forestry sector is an integrated industry that
encompasses both native forest and plantation resources
(softwood and hardwood), the production of logs, woodchips,
hardwood and softwood sawn timber, pulp and paper
production, veneer, fuel wood and other wood products.
Tasmanian forest based industries are a key contributor to
the Tasmanian economy accounting for approximately $507
million in 2009–1037.
Tasmania’s tourism industry contributes around $1.4 billion
per year to the State economy38 . Research suggests that
the Tasmanian wilderness and coastal environments are the
strongest attraction for new visitors39.
35. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, Cat No. 7503.0 Value of agricultural commodities
produced.
36. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2011, Food and
beverage industry ScoreCard 2009-10 Snapshot
37. Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts 2011, Sector profile
and summary – forestry (and related products), http://www.development.tas.gov.au/__
data/assets/pdf_file/0011/46991/Industry_Summary_Forestry.pdf
38. Tourism Tasmania 2008, Our environment: a paper for Tourism Tasmania’s strategic
planning forum, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart.
39. Tourism Tasmania 2011, Motivations research: appeal triggers and motivations for
tourism in Tasmania, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart.
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SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Climate risks and opportunities
Agriculture
Climate is one of the fundamental factors that
determine where different types of primary production
can be successfully pursued. Climate variability is
not new for agricultural producers, who have always
managed and adapted to a highly variable climate40.
It is very clear that projected long-term changes in
rainfall and temperature associated with climate change
will impact on Tasmania’s agriculture industry. However,
the design of policies for risk management in agriculture
raises many challenges. These range from generating
sound information on the types of risks and the tools
available to deal with them, to creating incentives to
encourage farmers to adopt a proactive risk
management strategy.
Risks and opportunities that the agricultural sector is
likely to face include:
ƒƒ Chill hours are projected to decrease in lower
elevation of Tasmania and increase at higher
elevations. This may have localised impacts on crops
that require a period of cold before they can bud,
flower and set fruit.
ƒƒ A large increase in the number of growing degree
days are projected by 2085. This is likely to impact on
the crop types and varieties selected. For example,
by mid-century wine varieties such as cabernet
sauvignon are predicted to ripen reliably in some
areas, but by 2085 will do so in all wine growing
regions of Tasmania. New crop opportunities,
will need to be carefully managed to avoid the
establishment of new weeds in the State.
ƒƒ By 2085, dry land pasture production from ryegrass
is projected to increase in some regions of Tasmania,
particularly those that are currently temperature
limited. Irrigated ryegrass yields are projected to
increase by around 20 to 30 per cent by 2040 but
thereafter decline to current levels due
to increases in the number of hot days during
summer months41.
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ƒƒ A reduction in drought in the south-east, north-east
and south-west and an increase in the central to
north-west regions of Tasmania is projected.
ƒƒ Changing climate, in particular increasing
temperature, will alter the spread and
impact of invasive species and predators.
Some pests and diseases already present in
a region are likely to become more virulent
and widespread. In those areas where higher
temperatures are also coupled with reduced
rainfall, a reduction in fungal infections or
preferentially promotion of pest predators
may occur. For example, the Tasmanian
mild climate is currently unsuitable for the
Queensland fruit fly. With a warming climate,
populations could more easily establish on
the Bass Strait islands and then move into the
north and across the State42.
Wild fisheries and aquaculture
Climate change is expected to have a significant impact
on Tasmania’s ocean environment, particularly on the
east coast. Sea temperatures are rising, currents are
changing and impacts are already being seen in species
composition and ecosystems43. These changes will
result in flow-on impacts to Tasmania’s marine-based
industries due to a shift in the distribution, abundance
and productivity of target species and the introduction
of pest species.
Risks that the wild fisheries and aquaculture sector are
likely to face include:
ƒƒ A southward shift in species distributions is expected.
This is likely to support the further introduction
and establishment of invasive species such as the
long-spined sea urchin which has established in
the warmer Tasmanian waters, directly affecting
ecosystems that are vital for significant fisheries such
as abalone44.
ƒƒ Changes to the distribution of marine species
may result in reduced populations or new species
entering established fishing grounds.
40. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
42. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
41. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts
fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4.
Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf>
43. Pecl, G, Frusher, S, Gardner, C, Haward, M, Hobday, A, Jennings, S, NurseyBray, M, Punt, A, Revill, H, van Putten, I 2009, The east coast Tasmanian rock
lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response
options, report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra.
44. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource
Management and Conservation Division 2010, Vulnerability of Tasmania’s natural
environment to climate change: an overview, unpublished report, DPIPWE,
Hobart.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
ƒƒ Increases in the outbreaks of disease, nutrient pulses
and storm surges are expected to affect profitability
in the Tasmanian salmon and oyster industries.
ƒƒ Oyster and other bivalve harvests are expected to
be affected by an increase in algal bloom occurrences.
ƒƒ A reduction in nutrient levels, combined
with changes in rainfall patterns, sea level
rise and acidification, could affect the
culturing environment and the serviceability
of estuarine and coastal zones for shellfish
farming.
At its most severe, climate change could have
catastrophic impacts on vulnerable parts of the
lifecycle of key species, affect ecosystem functioning
and may result in major sudden changes in ecosystems
(often referred to as “tipping points”).
Forestry
The main wood plantation species in Tasmania are
radiata pine (Pinus radiata), shining gum (Eucalyptus
nitens) and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus). Recent
research undertaken by the Australian Bureau of
Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
indicates that reduced rainfall and increased
temperatures would affect the growth rates of forest
plantation species. On average, growth rates for
radiata pine are projected to decline (against the 2005
baseline growth rates), while blue gum growth rates are
projected to increase45.
Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide may
compensate for declines in growth rates by providing a
fertilisation effect to some extent. However, such gains
may be offset by changes in the distribution, incidence
and severity of pests, diseases and invasive species46.
The plantation and native forest sectors are likely to
be particularly vulnerable to increased occurrence and
severity of fire weather (extreme heat, dryness and
wind).
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Tourism
Climate affects when, why, how and where tourists
travel. It also affects the nature and location of tourism
attractions, such as wilderness areas, surf beaches
and snowfields. Tourism is particularly vulnerable to
an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme
events such as droughts, bushfires and floods. These
events can lead to dramatic declines in visitation at
the time of and immediately following the disaster.
This was experienced by the Queensland tourism
industry after the flood and cyclone events during
the summer of 2010–11. Extreme events can also
have long-term impacts through damage to tourismrelated infrastructure and the change in perception of a
location as a safe and attractive place to visit.
Marine and coastal ecosystems provide high lifestyle
and tourism values which could be negatively affected
by rising sea level. Tourist developments close to the
shoreline in vulnerable coastal areas may have difficulty
obtaining property insurance against flood and wind
damage, may lose value, and may ultimately be forced
to relocate47.
Climate change also presents opportunities for the
Tasmanian tourism industry. For example, the more
modest temperature increases expected for the
State may continue to make Tasmania an appealing
destination for travellers seeking an escape from the
more extreme climates of Australia and other parts of
the world. in harnessing these opportunities, however,
it will be important to consider the potential effect
on other adaptation priority area, such as Human
Settlements and Infrastructure. There is some risk that
this opportunities will be offset by future changes
to the cost of travel as a result of efforts to reduce
greenhouse gases and increased fuel pricing.
Other sectors
Climate change policy may provide some opportunities
for the forestry industry to benefit from emerging
carbon sequestration markets.
Other industry sectors may also face risks from climate
change. Those businesses located in coastal areas may
be exposed to sea level rise and storm surge. Extreme
events such as flooding and heat waves may also
impose additional costs on businesses. Supply chain
businesses may be indirectly affected if climate change
impact costs are passed down the supply chain.
45. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
2011, Potential effects of climate change on forests and forestry: summary for
Tasmania, August, ABARES, Canberra.
47. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact
sheet – tourism, http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/9.Tourism-Impacts.
pdf
46. Pinkard, EA, Kriticos, DJ & Potter, K 2010, Implications of climate change
for Australia’s plantation forests: weeds, insects and fungal pests, prepared for
the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences,
Canberra.
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Action so far by the Government
Providing sound public information at the
regional and local level
The Climate Futures for Tasmania: Impacts on Agriculture
report provides farmers, agribusiness and agricultural
policy makers with important information about the
expected impacts of climate change on the agricultural
sector. The Agricultural Futures Project will continue
to communicate the Climate Futures for Tasmania
results and it will also provide specific regional and
crop/sectoral-scale information. The Future farming –
managing risks and opportunities program will identify
opportunities and support ways to benefit from a
highly variable global environment48.
Adaptation in the fishing and aquaculture sectors is also
being explored by the DPIPWE in collaboration with
the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies through
a series of Tasmanian case studies of the abalone, rock
lobster, snapper and blue grenadier sectors. The case
studies will assess the capacity of fisheries management
to adapt to forecast changes to these fisheries sectors.
The Tasmanian Government, in collaboration with the
TIA, are partners in the Climate Change Research
Strategy for Primary Industries, which provides valuable
communication, coordination, collaboration and
representation on climate change issues for the primary
industries sector.
48. Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture Strategic Plan 2012–16, http://www.tia.tas.
edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/212820/TIAR-Strategic-Plan_FINAL.pdf
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Managing climate change risks and impacts
to State-owned and managed infrastructure,
assets and services
Additional modelling undertaken by the DPIPWE has
provided a valuable fruit fly risk monitoring tool. This
tool takes account of weather patterns interstate, the
extent of outbreaks there, and possible climate shifts in
Tasmania, and estimates risk of fruit fly establishment.
This tool will be used by DPIPWE for assessing changes
in the risk profile in the State.
A monitoring program has been established for
montane conifers (such as King Billy Pine and Pencil
Pine) by DPIPWE following research indicating they
may be at risk from climate change.
Assisting vulnerable communities to build
climate resilience and adaptive capacity
Climate change impact information is considered
in tools and resources that assist farmers to build
resilience and improve their farm practices, for example
FarmPoint web portal49 and the Tasmanian Property
Management Systems Framework.
In round 3 of the Tasmanian Government’s
ClimateConnect grants, funds were awarded to the
Derwent Catchment NRM group for the successful
Introducing resilient pasture species to the Derwent
Valley project, which demonstrated alternative,
long-lived, hardy, perennial forage plants suitable for
environmentally sustainable grazing in the Derwent
Valley.
49. www.farmpoint.tas.gov.au
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four
Future directions
A wide range of issues will need to be taken into
consideration when developing adaptation responses for
Tasmania’s industry sectors, including:
ƒƒ cross-jurisdictional approaches to issues such as
biosecurity, to maximise the effectiveness of adaptation
responses and to share resources;
ƒƒ regulatory impacts of changing land use demands as a
result of climate change;
ƒƒ ensuring flexible planning, investment and management
strategies are developed that allow for adjustment as
conditions change or as new information arises;
ƒƒ the vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport
infrastructure to climate change; and
ƒƒ linkages with other priority areas discussed in the paper.
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Your feedback
Q23. Are you aware of industries that have identified
climate change risks, developed adaptation plans
or taken actions to adapt to those risks?
If yes:
ƒƒ what actions have they undertaken/
planned to take? And over what
timeframes?
ƒƒ are partnerships with other sectors or
the community involved?
ƒƒ what can we learn from their
experience?
Q24. How can we best support our key industries to
be resilient and adapt to the challenges they face
from climate change?
Q25. What other industries are likely to be directly
affected by the impacts of climate change and
how can we help them take action to adapt?
Q26. What economic opportunities are emerging, or
are likely to emerge, from the changing climate?
Q27. What barriers are there to adapting to the
impacts of climate change on industry sectors?
Q28. What information is required to help manage the
climate change risks to our key industries?