* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download 4 Industry sectors
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four 4 Industry sectors Many of Tasmania’s major industries, such as agriculture, wild fisheries and aquaculture, forestry, and tourism will be impacted by climate change. Tasmania has a strong agricultural tradition and the agriculture sector is highly diversified. Important sub-sectors include mixed farming enterprises, dairy, fruit, vegetables, red meat, wool, poppies and viticulture as well as niche production such as seeds, honey, ginseng, olives, truffles and essential oils. Agriculture plays an important role in the Tasmanian economy, with a total farm gate value in 2009-10 of around $1.15 billion35. Aquaculture and wild fisheries are also major industries in the State. The aquaculture industry primarily consists of salmonid (salmon and trout) production. In 2009-10 Tasmania’s salmonid sector had a gross value of $362.4 million. Other significant sub – sectors include oysters ($21.2 million), abalone ($5.1 million) and mussels ($3.4 million). The major products from wild fisheries include scalefish, lobster (production valued at approximately $65.2 million) and abalone (approximately $94.6 million)36. The Tasmanian forestry sector is an integrated industry that encompasses both native forest and plantation resources (softwood and hardwood), the production of logs, woodchips, hardwood and softwood sawn timber, pulp and paper production, veneer, fuel wood and other wood products. Tasmanian forest based industries are a key contributor to the Tasmanian economy accounting for approximately $507 million in 2009–1037. Tasmania’s tourism industry contributes around $1.4 billion per year to the State economy38 . Research suggests that the Tasmanian wilderness and coastal environments are the strongest attraction for new visitors39. 35. Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011, Cat No. 7503.0 Value of agricultural commodities produced. 36. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, 2011, Food and beverage industry ScoreCard 2009-10 Snapshot 37. Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Arts 2011, Sector profile and summary – forestry (and related products), http://www.development.tas.gov.au/__ data/assets/pdf_file/0011/46991/Industry_Summary_Forestry.pdf 38. Tourism Tasmania 2008, Our environment: a paper for Tourism Tasmania’s strategic planning forum, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart. 39. Tourism Tasmania 2011, Motivations research: appeal triggers and motivations for tourism in Tasmania, Tourism Tasmania, Hobart. 22 SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four Climate risks and opportunities Agriculture Climate is one of the fundamental factors that determine where different types of primary production can be successfully pursued. Climate variability is not new for agricultural producers, who have always managed and adapted to a highly variable climate40. It is very clear that projected long-term changes in rainfall and temperature associated with climate change will impact on Tasmania’s agriculture industry. However, the design of policies for risk management in agriculture raises many challenges. These range from generating sound information on the types of risks and the tools available to deal with them, to creating incentives to encourage farmers to adopt a proactive risk management strategy. Risks and opportunities that the agricultural sector is likely to face include: Chill hours are projected to decrease in lower elevation of Tasmania and increase at higher elevations. This may have localised impacts on crops that require a period of cold before they can bud, flower and set fruit. A large increase in the number of growing degree days are projected by 2085. This is likely to impact on the crop types and varieties selected. For example, by mid-century wine varieties such as cabernet sauvignon are predicted to ripen reliably in some areas, but by 2085 will do so in all wine growing regions of Tasmania. New crop opportunities, will need to be carefully managed to avoid the establishment of new weeds in the State. By 2085, dry land pasture production from ryegrass is projected to increase in some regions of Tasmania, particularly those that are currently temperature limited. Irrigated ryegrass yields are projected to increase by around 20 to 30 per cent by 2040 but thereafter decline to current levels due to increases in the number of hot days during summer months41. 23 A reduction in drought in the south-east, north-east and south-west and an increase in the central to north-west regions of Tasmania is projected. Changing climate, in particular increasing temperature, will alter the spread and impact of invasive species and predators. Some pests and diseases already present in a region are likely to become more virulent and widespread. In those areas where higher temperatures are also coupled with reduced rainfall, a reduction in fungal infections or preferentially promotion of pest predators may occur. For example, the Tasmanian mild climate is currently unsuitable for the Queensland fruit fly. With a warming climate, populations could more easily establish on the Bass Strait islands and then move into the north and across the State42. Wild fisheries and aquaculture Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Tasmania’s ocean environment, particularly on the east coast. Sea temperatures are rising, currents are changing and impacts are already being seen in species composition and ecosystems43. These changes will result in flow-on impacts to Tasmania’s marine-based industries due to a shift in the distribution, abundance and productivity of target species and the introduction of pest species. Risks that the wild fisheries and aquaculture sector are likely to face include: A southward shift in species distributions is expected. This is likely to support the further introduction and establishment of invasive species such as the long-spined sea urchin which has established in the warmer Tasmanian waters, directly affecting ecosystems that are vital for significant fisheries such as abalone44. Changes to the distribution of marine species may result in reduced populations or new species entering established fishing grounds. 40. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4. Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf> 42. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4. Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf> 41. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact sheet – primary industries, <http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/4. Primary-Industries-Impacts.pdf> 43. Pecl, G, Frusher, S, Gardner, C, Haward, M, Hobday, A, Jennings, S, NurseyBray, M, Punt, A, Revill, H, van Putten, I 2009, The east coast Tasmanian rock lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options, report to the Department of Climate Change, Canberra. 44. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Resource Management and Conservation Division 2010, Vulnerability of Tasmania’s natural environment to climate change: an overview, unpublished report, DPIPWE, Hobart. SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four Increases in the outbreaks of disease, nutrient pulses and storm surges are expected to affect profitability in the Tasmanian salmon and oyster industries. Oyster and other bivalve harvests are expected to be affected by an increase in algal bloom occurrences. A reduction in nutrient levels, combined with changes in rainfall patterns, sea level rise and acidification, could affect the culturing environment and the serviceability of estuarine and coastal zones for shellfish farming. At its most severe, climate change could have catastrophic impacts on vulnerable parts of the lifecycle of key species, affect ecosystem functioning and may result in major sudden changes in ecosystems (often referred to as “tipping points”). Forestry The main wood plantation species in Tasmania are radiata pine (Pinus radiata), shining gum (Eucalyptus nitens) and blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus). Recent research undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences indicates that reduced rainfall and increased temperatures would affect the growth rates of forest plantation species. On average, growth rates for radiata pine are projected to decline (against the 2005 baseline growth rates), while blue gum growth rates are projected to increase45. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide may compensate for declines in growth rates by providing a fertilisation effect to some extent. However, such gains may be offset by changes in the distribution, incidence and severity of pests, diseases and invasive species46. The plantation and native forest sectors are likely to be particularly vulnerable to increased occurrence and severity of fire weather (extreme heat, dryness and wind). 24 Tourism Climate affects when, why, how and where tourists travel. It also affects the nature and location of tourism attractions, such as wilderness areas, surf beaches and snowfields. Tourism is particularly vulnerable to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts, bushfires and floods. These events can lead to dramatic declines in visitation at the time of and immediately following the disaster. This was experienced by the Queensland tourism industry after the flood and cyclone events during the summer of 2010–11. Extreme events can also have long-term impacts through damage to tourismrelated infrastructure and the change in perception of a location as a safe and attractive place to visit. Marine and coastal ecosystems provide high lifestyle and tourism values which could be negatively affected by rising sea level. Tourist developments close to the shoreline in vulnerable coastal areas may have difficulty obtaining property insurance against flood and wind damage, may lose value, and may ultimately be forced to relocate47. Climate change also presents opportunities for the Tasmanian tourism industry. For example, the more modest temperature increases expected for the State may continue to make Tasmania an appealing destination for travellers seeking an escape from the more extreme climates of Australia and other parts of the world. in harnessing these opportunities, however, it will be important to consider the potential effect on other adaptation priority area, such as Human Settlements and Infrastructure. There is some risk that this opportunities will be offset by future changes to the cost of travel as a result of efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and increased fuel pricing. Other sectors Climate change policy may provide some opportunities for the forestry industry to benefit from emerging carbon sequestration markets. Other industry sectors may also face risks from climate change. Those businesses located in coastal areas may be exposed to sea level rise and storm surge. Extreme events such as flooding and heat waves may also impose additional costs on businesses. Supply chain businesses may be indirectly affected if climate change impact costs are passed down the supply chain. 45. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences 2011, Potential effects of climate change on forests and forestry: summary for Tasmania, August, ABARES, Canberra. 47. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2011, Impacts fact sheet – tourism, http://www.nccarf.edu.au/sites/default/files/9.Tourism-Impacts. pdf 46. Pinkard, EA, Kriticos, DJ & Potter, K 2010, Implications of climate change for Australia’s plantation forests: weeds, insects and fungal pests, prepared for the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra. SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four Action so far by the Government Providing sound public information at the regional and local level The Climate Futures for Tasmania: Impacts on Agriculture report provides farmers, agribusiness and agricultural policy makers with important information about the expected impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. The Agricultural Futures Project will continue to communicate the Climate Futures for Tasmania results and it will also provide specific regional and crop/sectoral-scale information. The Future farming – managing risks and opportunities program will identify opportunities and support ways to benefit from a highly variable global environment48. Adaptation in the fishing and aquaculture sectors is also being explored by the DPIPWE in collaboration with the Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies through a series of Tasmanian case studies of the abalone, rock lobster, snapper and blue grenadier sectors. The case studies will assess the capacity of fisheries management to adapt to forecast changes to these fisheries sectors. The Tasmanian Government, in collaboration with the TIA, are partners in the Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries, which provides valuable communication, coordination, collaboration and representation on climate change issues for the primary industries sector. 48. Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture Strategic Plan 2012–16, http://www.tia.tas. edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/212820/TIAR-Strategic-Plan_FINAL.pdf 25 Managing climate change risks and impacts to State-owned and managed infrastructure, assets and services Additional modelling undertaken by the DPIPWE has provided a valuable fruit fly risk monitoring tool. This tool takes account of weather patterns interstate, the extent of outbreaks there, and possible climate shifts in Tasmania, and estimates risk of fruit fly establishment. This tool will be used by DPIPWE for assessing changes in the risk profile in the State. A monitoring program has been established for montane conifers (such as King Billy Pine and Pencil Pine) by DPIPWE following research indicating they may be at risk from climate change. Assisting vulnerable communities to build climate resilience and adaptive capacity Climate change impact information is considered in tools and resources that assist farmers to build resilience and improve their farm practices, for example FarmPoint web portal49 and the Tasmanian Property Management Systems Framework. In round 3 of the Tasmanian Government’s ClimateConnect grants, funds were awarded to the Derwent Catchment NRM group for the successful Introducing resilient pasture species to the Derwent Valley project, which demonstrated alternative, long-lived, hardy, perennial forage plants suitable for environmentally sustainable grazing in the Derwent Valley. 49. www.farmpoint.tas.gov.au SECTION 3: Adaption priority area four Future directions A wide range of issues will need to be taken into consideration when developing adaptation responses for Tasmania’s industry sectors, including: cross-jurisdictional approaches to issues such as biosecurity, to maximise the effectiveness of adaptation responses and to share resources; regulatory impacts of changing land use demands as a result of climate change; ensuring flexible planning, investment and management strategies are developed that allow for adjustment as conditions change or as new information arises; the vulnerability of supply chain, utilities and transport infrastructure to climate change; and linkages with other priority areas discussed in the paper. 26 ? Your feedback Q23. Are you aware of industries that have identified climate change risks, developed adaptation plans or taken actions to adapt to those risks? If yes: what actions have they undertaken/ planned to take? And over what timeframes? are partnerships with other sectors or the community involved? what can we learn from their experience? Q24. How can we best support our key industries to be resilient and adapt to the challenges they face from climate change? Q25. What other industries are likely to be directly affected by the impacts of climate change and how can we help them take action to adapt? Q26. What economic opportunities are emerging, or are likely to emerge, from the changing climate? Q27. What barriers are there to adapting to the impacts of climate change on industry sectors? Q28. What information is required to help manage the climate change risks to our key industries?