Download (2009-2011) in public attitude towards climate change

Public Attitudes to climate change
List to add:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/6737353/Only-one-in-two-voters-accepts-manmade-climate-change-according-to-new-poll.html
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/category/environment
http://www.lga.gov.uk/lga/core/page.do?pageId=471052
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_social/Social_Trends38/Social_Trends_38.pdf
TNS BMRB
GALLUP.
Unable to find specific polls on a local/borough level.
What is the direction of travel in public attitudes to climate science, trust in climate science, and
climate change debate?
Summary.
The recent trend (2009-2011) in public attitude towards climate change appears to be steady, with
about 71% believing climate change is due to human activity, and 83% believing it is a threat. Faith
in climate science took a drop during the winter of 2009/2010, with the UEA emails affair, a very
cold winter and perceived failures at Copenhagen understood to be the main causes of
uncertainty. After considering these trends, I identify three factors that are considered to
influence attitudes to climate change: i) the experience of flooding, ii) Newspaper readership
(cause/effect relationship uncertain though) iii) age. Regional variation?
2009 to 2011
In the most recent Ipsos Mori study of environmental concerns by nation,1 only 25% of GB
respondents placed global warming/climate change as one of the three most important
environmental concerns. Top was energy security, at 50%, prompting Ipsos Mori to suggest
environmental campaigners tag onto the energy security arguments for tackling climate change.2
Defra’s survey of 1,769 people in England in March 2011,3 “Attitudes and knowledge towards
biodiversity and the natural environment” in 2011 found that significantly fewer people felt that
they knew a lot or a fair amount about climate change (44% in 2011 in comparison with 61% in
2009), with more saying that they just know a little (44% in comparison with 33% in 2009). Perhaps
the result of increased confusion, following the UEA emails affair. Taking a look at the
demographics, 63% of AB respondents reported knowing a lot or a fair amount about climate
change compared with 31% in DE.
According to the Guardian4/ ICM surveys between August 20095 and January 20116, there have
been no significant (longer-term?) changes in the public’s trust that climate change is caused mainly
by humans. (In August 2009 71% of respondents believed it was mainly caused by man, and in
1
Ipsos Mori, Feb 2011, http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/sri-environment-global-advisor-april-2011-computer-tables.pdf.
Ipsos Mori, Feb 2011. Energy Security is a top concern for Brits. http://www.ipsosmori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2771/Energy-security-is-a-top-concern-for-Brits.aspx
3 Defra, March 2011, Attitudes and knowledge towards biodiversity and the natural environment.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/files/Statistical-Release-13-April-2011-biodiversity1.pdf
4
Guardian, 31 Jan 2011, Public belief in climate change weathers storm, poll shows. Reported by Damian Carrington.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jan/31/public-belief-climate-change
5 ICM Poll for the Guardian, August 2009, Green Survey. http://www.icmresearch.com/pdfs/2009_sept_guardian_green_survey_poll.pdf.
6 Guardian/ ICM Opinion Poll, Jan 2011, Public Attitudes on Climate Change,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2011/jan/31/climate-change-poll.
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January 2011 68% did). Similarly, 83% agreed that climate change is a threat in January 2011,
compared with 85% in August 2009.
This is despite the UEA scandals and very cold weather during the winter of 2009. When asked
specifically
“Thinking about people you know, do you think that the very cold weather in December
made them worry less about the dangers of global warming, worry more, or would it have
made no difference to them one way or other?”.
61% responded ‘no difference’, 8% believed people ‘worried less’, and 27% believed people ‘worried
more’.
Winter of 2009/10
However, Ipsos Mori’s ‘Climate Change Omnibus’ data between January 2009 and January 2010
reports a dip in the proportion of people who believe that climate change is ‘definitely’ a reality,
from 44% in 2009 to 31% in 2010.7,8.
Latest Ipsos Mori data should be updated here: http://www.ipsosmori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2552/Climate-Change-Omnibus-Great-Britain.aspx.
Also during the winter of 2009, a YouGov/ Sunday Times study in December 20099 found that in light
of the UEA controversies, 44% of respondents did not trust climate scientists to tell the truth about
global warming. 41% did trust climate scientists to tell the truth. Further, 62% of respondents said
their view on global warming is best fit by the statement “the planet is warming and human activity
is partly responsible, together with other factors”, whilst 21% chose “the planet is warming and
human activity is mainly responsible”, 8% chose “the planet is warming but human activity is not
responsible at all” and 4% denied the planet is warming.
This dip during winter 2009 is further supported by Populus surveys between November 2009 (for
the Times)10 and February 2010 (for the BBC)11, which reported that in February 2010, 25% of
respondents did not believe climate change is happening, in contrast to 15% believing this in
November 2009. The number of people who believed climate change is happening dropped from
83% to 75% during this time. And of those who believed climate change is happening, the number of
people who believed it has been scientifically proven that it is caused by human activity fell from
50% to 34% during this time.
The Populus survey also asked whether respondents have heard of weaknesses or flaws in the
climate science, the Copenhagen talks in 2009, and the cold winter of 2009. Of those who had heard
of weaknesses or flaws in the science (57%), 73% had not changed their views, whilst 11% claimed to
be less convinced of the risks of climate change, and 16% claimed to be more convinced. Somewhat
surprisingly, the reporting of weaknesses and flaws appear to have had more of an impact in
convincing social groups C1/C2 (16%/22%) and DE (21%) of the risks of climate change, than AB
(10%).
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Ipsos Mori. Guardian Sharp decline.
Guardian, 23 Jan 2010, Sharp decline in public's belief in climate threat, British poll reveals. Reported by Juliette Jowit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/23/british-public-belief-climate-poll
9
YouGov/ Sunday Times, December 2009, YouGov/ Sunday Times Survey Results.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/ST-toplines_DEC09.pdf
10 Populus, November 2009, The Times Poll. http://www.populuslimited.com/the-times-the-times-poll-november-2009-081109.html
11 BBC, 7 Feb 2010. Climate scepticism 'on the rise', BBC poll shows. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8500443.stm. Poll data in full
here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/05_02_10climatechange.pdf.
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This is further backed up by Ipsos Mori’s ‘Climate Energy Futures survey for Cardiff University12 –
“Yes” responses to the question “As far as you know, do you personally think the world’s climate is
changing, or not?” dropped from 91% in 2005 to 78% in Jan/Mar 2010.
1997 to 2008
According to Ipsos Mori’s survey of 1,039 British adults over 15 in May 2008,13 30% of respondents
said they were ‘very concerned about climate change’, 47% said they were ‘concerned’, and 14%
said they were not ‘very concerned’ and 9% said they were ‘not at all concerned’.
60% of respondents agree that many scientific experts still question if humans are contributing to
climate change in 2008, compared with 56% in 2007. (But in my view this is a strange question to
ask, ‘many’ doesn’t mean ‘a significant number’ nor whether the respondent thinks they should be
taken seriously).
More significantly, 42% said they sometimes think climate change might not be as bad as people say.
Ipsos Mori14 asked at least 100 British adults over 18 the same question over a 10 year period,
“What do you see as the main / other important issues facing Britain today” - the environment fell as
a concern from about 10% to about 3% between May 1997 and May 2003, before climbing back up
to 10% in May 2008. It spiked during 2000, when Britain saw widespread flooding (14%), and also in
2007, following the publication of the Stern Review in October 2006 (19%).15 See trend below.
This trend is supported by Globescan polls in 2003 and Oct 2005/Jan 2006, which showed an
increase in people who considered climate change to be ‘very serious’, from 50% to 70%.16 Concern
appears to have grown sharply on a global scale between those two surveys.
12
Ipsos Mori, June 2010. Cardiff University - Energy Futures and Climate Change Survey 2010, http://www.ipsosmori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/climate-change-still-high-on-publics-agenda-topline.pdf
13
Ipsos Mori, Public attitudes to climate change 2008 concerned but unconvinced. http://www.ipsosmori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri-environment-public-attitudes-to-climate-change-2008-concerned-but-still-unconvinced.pdf.
14 Ipsos Mori, May 2008, http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri_environment_climate%20clinic%20slides_2008.PDF
15 Ipsos Mori, May 2008, http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri_environment_climate%20clinic%20slides_2008.PDF.
16
Globescan News, 24 April 2006, http://www.globescan.com/news_archives/csr_climatechange.html.
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http://www.defra.gov.uk/statistics/environment/public-attitude/
Other factors affecting attitudes to climate change
1. An academic paper by Alexa Spence et al,17 published in Nature in March 2011, has found that
people in the UK who have been affected by flooding were i) more concerned about climate change,
ii) more likely to reduce their energy usage, and this willingness is apparently unrelated to their
certainty that climate change is happening.
“We show that those who report experience of flooding express more concern over climate
change, see it as less uncertain and feel more confident that their actions will have an effect
on climate change. Importantly, these perceptual differences also translate into a greater
willingness to save energy to mitigate climate change. Highlighting links between local
weather events and climate change is therefore likely to be a useful strategy for increasing
concern and action.”
2. According to a study by Ipsos Mori, 2007, 4% of ‘The Sun’ readers consider pollution/ the
environment to be an important issue, in comparison with 24% of ‘The Independent’ readers:18
Cause or effect?
3. Age is widely documented as having an impact, in particular respondents over 65 tend to be more
critical.
“An analysis of those who think climate change poses no threat reveals them to be predominantly
men (70%) and about twice as likely to be over 65 and to have voted Conservative in 2010 than the
general population.”
Underestimation other peoples’ attitudes
17
Spence et al. March 2011. Nature. Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience.
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1059.html
18
Ipsos Mori, 2007., http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri_environment_climate%20clinic%20slides_2008.PDF.
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A final interesting statistic for public engagement purposes – according to a World Public Opinion
Poll in July 2009,19 respondents from all 15 countries underestimated how high a priority others in
their country thought climate change should be:
“Across all nations, the average person is perceived as wanting a priority of 6.42 for climate
change--though the priority actually desired on average across all nations is a higher 7.33.”
In the UK this effect was more significant, the mean priority desired was 8.2, but the mean perception was
6.52.
Other points on public engagement and science
Ipsos Mori survey, Learning from Public Attitudes to Science: 50% would like to know the public are involved in
science decisions, 28% would personally like a say or to become actively involved in public consultations on
science.20
-
Public willingness to make changes to behaviour
2008. Ipsos Mori.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri-environment-public-attitudes-to-climatechange-2008-concerned-but-still-unconvinced.pdf
This survey also seems to suggest that people felt more should be done by government (31%
strongly agree, 37% agree, 22% neither agree/ disagree) and also by individuals (see next para), but
at the same time they feared that this will restrict what they want to do (10% strongly agree, 31%
neither agree nor disagree, 30% neither agree/ disagree).
As for the role of individuals, 47% believe that “people should be expected to do things like recycling
and turning lights off at home as well as going further on some bigger actions eg in terms of what
products they buy, how much they pay for things, and how much they drive and fly.” Only 13% said
individuals should be expected to make significant and radical changes to their lifestyles, whilst 26%
said that individuals should be expected to do things like recycle and turtning lights off at home but
no more.
Guardian/ ICM survey. Aug 2009.
http://www.icmresearch.com/pdfs/2009_sept_guardian_green_survey_poll.pdf
Q.6 Which of the following do you think people like you should be prepared to consider to limit
climate change?
Buy smaller more fuel efficient cars: 83%.
Buy less food grown outside EU that has been transported by air: 75%.
Drive less: 75%.
Fly less: 68%.
Fit solar panels to your house to generate energy: 65%.
19
World Public Opinion, 29 July 2009,
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/btenvironmentra/631.php?lb=bte&pnt=631&nid=&id.
20Ipsos Mori, Learning from Public Attitudes to Science, December 2010. http://www.slideshare.net/marilyneb/bisipsos-mori-learningfrom-public-attitudes-to-science-2011
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Pay a charge per mile to drive: 33%.
None of these 3%.
Don’t know: 1%.
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