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THE IMPORTANCE OF SCIENCE IN CLIMATE
CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS:
SCIENCE FOR A BETTER WORLD
Dr. R K Pachauri
Chairman,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Director-General,
The Energy and Resources Institute
Director,
Yale Climate & Energy Institute
Croatia
28th March 2011
UNEP
WMO
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THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL
PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
(IPCC):
MISSION AND PROCESS
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Mandate of the IPCC
“The General Assembly […] endorses action of the
World Meteorological Organisation and the United
Nations Environment Programme in jointly
establishing an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change to provide international coordinated
scientific assessments of the magnitude, timing and
potential environmental and socio-economic impact of
climate change and realistic response strategies […].”
United Nations General Assembly
43rd session resolution, 6th December 1988
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Writing and
review process
of IPCC reports
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The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(2007)
+130 countries
450 lead authors
800 contributing authors
+2500 scientific expert reviewers
+18000 peer-reviewed publications cited
+90000 comments from experts and Governments
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EVOLUTION OF THE SCIENCE
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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History of climate change awareness
1898: Clarion call from Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius
1988: NASA scientist James Hansen tells U.S. Congress that
global warming "is already happening now'‘
Creation of the IPCC
1992: Adoption of the UNFCCC
1997: Approval of the Kyoto Protocol
2005: Warmest year since record-keeping began in mid-19th Century
Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol
2009: COP took note of the Copenhagen Accord
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Copenhagen Accord (2009)
 Recognizes scientific view that the world must
not exceed a 2 °C increase in warming
 States that domestic measurement, reporting
and verification of mitigation actions of
developing countries
 Envisages establishment of a new “Copenhagen
Green Climate Fund” approaching USD $30bn
for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020
But no binding agreement
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The assessments carried out by the IPCC
have influenced global action
on an unprecedented scale
1. First Assessment Report (1990) had a major
impact in defining the content of the UNFCCC
2. The Second Assessment Report (1996) was largely
influential in defining the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol
3. The Third Assessment Report (2001) focused attention on
the problems of the impacts of climate change and the
need for adaptation
4. The Fourth Assessment Report (2007) is creating a strong
basis for the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation and
a strong legally binding agreement
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Additional physics incorporated
in successive climate models
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Number of papers published on
climate change
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The work of the IPCC shows how
science can help address problems
facing humanity
By creating understanding of the interrelationships
between human actions and the environment
By assessing future impacts and key vulnerabilities
By defining possible scenarios of action and their
consequences
By defining specific solutions that can address the
problem if applied on a large scale
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KEY FINDINGS FROM THE
IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT
REPORT (AR4)
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Carbon dioxide emissions
-2
Global atmospheric
concentrations of
greenhouse gasses (GHGs)
increased 70% in 1970-
2004 as a result of human
activities
10000
5000
Time (before 2005)
0
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Observed changes
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
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Global temperature change
Models using only
natural forcing
1
Models using both
natural and
anthropogenic forcing
0.5
Observations
0
1900
1950
Year
2000
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Ranges for predicted surface warming
year
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
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Vulnerability of coastal deltas
Extreme (> 1 million people potentially displaced
by current sea-level trends by 2050)
High (50 000 to 1 million)
Medium (500 to 50 000)
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Projected changes in annual runoff
(2041-60 relative to 1900-70)
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Abrupt or irreversible impacts
Partial loss of ice sheets on polar
land could imply metres of sea level
rise, major changes in coastlines
and inundation of low-lying areas
20-30% of species are likely to be
at risk of extinction if increases in
warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
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Expected impacts on poor regions
due to climate variability and change
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia
 12 to 81 million in Latin America
 75 to 250 million in Africa
Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
 30% by 2080 in Latin America
 50% by 2020 in some African countries
Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa
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Some implications for
global security
By the end of the century, billions of people could be forced
from their native land by rising sea levels, extreme events,
floods and famines
Food scarcity and the resulting increase in food prices will
push poor countries into chaos
 Such “failed states” can export disease, terrorism, illicit
drugs, weapons and refugees
Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over
increasingly scarce natural resources (E.g. Jordan River)
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AVERAGE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES INCREASED
AT ALMOST TWICE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE RATE
IN THE PAST 100 YEARS
- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7%
per decade
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THE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS
HAS INCREASED OVER MOST LAND AREAS
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:
1 million people lost their homes
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THE PROPORTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
REACHING HIGHER INTENSITY HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE PAST 3 DECADES
- CYCLONE NARGIS IN MYANMAR, 2008
100 000 ESTIMATED DEATHS
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INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE
ABOUT 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate
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1996
2009
In the course of the century, water supplies stored
in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline
- The Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m up in the Andes,
which used to be the world's highest ski run, has been reduced
to just a few small pieces of ice
Credit: Edson
27Ramirez
HEAT WAVES HAVE BECOME MORE
FREQUENT OVER MOST LAND AREAS
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
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Photo credit: GoodPlanet
MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE
1970S, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND
SUBTROPICS
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Stabilisation scenarios
Stabilisation
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp.
increase
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to peak
Change in global
CO2 emissions in
2050
(% of 2000
emissions)
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 – 2015
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 – 2020
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 – 2030
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 – 2060
+10 to +60
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Costs of mitigation in 2030
Stabilisation
levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP
reduction
(%)
Reduction of
average annual
GDP growth
rates
(percentage pts)
445 - 535
<3
< 0.12
535 - 590
0.2 – 2.5
< 0.1
590 - 710
-0.6 – 1.2
< 0.06
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain
to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
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Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
GDP
Cost of mitigation
in 2030: max 3%
of global GDP
GDP without
mitigation
Mitigation would
postpone GDP
growth by one year
at most over the
medium term
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
Current
Schematic graph
2030
Time
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Main co-benefits of mitigation
 Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution
 Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigation
costs up to a factor of 3 to 4
 More employment
 Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years of
employment per 1 million US$ investment (over ten
years); while coal industry generates only 4
 Increased energy security
 Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that
may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
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Democracy must in essence therefore, mean the art and
science
the entire
physical,
Be of
themobilizing
change you
want to
see in economics
the world and
spiritual resources of all the various sections of the
people in the service of the common good for all.
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