Download Climate Change & Agriculture - Agricultural Marketing Policy Center

Climate Change and Agriculture
John M. Antle
Dept. of Ag Econ & Econ
Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change
Overview
• Facts and hypotheses
• Climate change issues: impacts, adaptation,
mitigation
• The evidence: Global, US, regional and MT
• Policy implications
Facts
• Greenhouse effect
• GHG emissions
• Observed changes
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–
–
–
–
Warming
More extemes
Sea-level rise
Glacial, ice-cap melting
Seasonal shifts
see www.ipcc.ch
Hypotheses
• Observed changes are anthropogenic
(caused by human GHG emissions)
• Impacts (costs) of CC will be sufficient to
warrant mitigation or adaptation
• Mitigation actions can reduce climate
change and are more cost effective than
adaptation
The evidence that CC is anthropogenic…
Emissions scenarios and global temps…
Impacts and adaptation:
stay and adapt or move?
• Population: from coasts & south &
southwest to inland & north
• Agriculture: from extremes of temperature
& precipitation to more favorable places
- Changes in crops, management
- CO2 fertilization effect
- Insect, disease, weeds?
Impact assessment: Global
• Positive: temperate regions with good soils
& increases in precipitation
• Negative: tropical regions, areas with lower
precipitation
- Coastal areas, tropical dryland areas
highly vulnerable
• IPCC predicts “…a marginal increase in the
number of people at risk of hunger due to
climate change.”
Impact assessment: U.S.
• Regional differences important
- Yield impacts negative in south, mixed or
positive in mid-west, plains, northwest
- Livestock impacts negative (5-10%)
- Changes in planting dates, crop mix in
transitional areas
- Western areas vulnerable to drought
• Aggregate impacts small, may be positive
Impact assessment: U.S. Regions
Impact assessment: Montana Wheat & Barley
Montana Agro-ecozones (MLRAs)
Mitigation: Global Costs (IPCC)
Mitigation: Potential for Soil Carbon
Sequestration in Northern Plains Crop and
Grazing Lands
250
Price ($/metric ton)
200
150
100
50
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Carbon (million metric tons/yr)
Crop Soils
Grazing Management
Legume Interseed
7
8
Policy Implications
U.S. mitigation policies likely with new U.S.
administration: carbon cap-and-trade
• Higher costs of fossil fuels
• Opportunities for agricultural mitigation:
conservation tillage, grazing management
• Opportunities for wind energy and biofuels?
For more information:
• www.ipcc.ch (summary for policy makers)
• www.choicesmagazine.org/20081/index.htm
• www.climate.montana.edu