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Transcript
Climate Change and Agriculture John M. Antle Dept. of Ag Econ & Econ Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change Overview • Facts and hypotheses • Climate change issues: impacts, adaptation, mitigation • The evidence: Global, US, regional and MT • Policy implications Facts • Greenhouse effect • GHG emissions • Observed changes – – – – – Warming More extemes Sea-level rise Glacial, ice-cap melting Seasonal shifts see www.ipcc.ch Hypotheses • Observed changes are anthropogenic (caused by human GHG emissions) • Impacts (costs) of CC will be sufficient to warrant mitigation or adaptation • Mitigation actions can reduce climate change and are more cost effective than adaptation The evidence that CC is anthropogenic… Emissions scenarios and global temps… Impacts and adaptation: stay and adapt or move? • Population: from coasts & south & southwest to inland & north • Agriculture: from extremes of temperature & precipitation to more favorable places - Changes in crops, management - CO2 fertilization effect - Insect, disease, weeds? Impact assessment: Global • Positive: temperate regions with good soils & increases in precipitation • Negative: tropical regions, areas with lower precipitation - Coastal areas, tropical dryland areas highly vulnerable • IPCC predicts “…a marginal increase in the number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change.” Impact assessment: U.S. • Regional differences important - Yield impacts negative in south, mixed or positive in mid-west, plains, northwest - Livestock impacts negative (5-10%) - Changes in planting dates, crop mix in transitional areas - Western areas vulnerable to drought • Aggregate impacts small, may be positive Impact assessment: U.S. Regions Impact assessment: Montana Wheat & Barley Montana Agro-ecozones (MLRAs) Mitigation: Global Costs (IPCC) Mitigation: Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in Northern Plains Crop and Grazing Lands 250 Price ($/metric ton) 200 150 100 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Carbon (million metric tons/yr) Crop Soils Grazing Management Legume Interseed 7 8 Policy Implications U.S. mitigation policies likely with new U.S. administration: carbon cap-and-trade • Higher costs of fossil fuels • Opportunities for agricultural mitigation: conservation tillage, grazing management • Opportunities for wind energy and biofuels? For more information: • www.ipcc.ch (summary for policy makers) • www.choicesmagazine.org/20081/index.htm • www.climate.montana.edu
