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FUKUSHIMA, ENERGY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
DR. R. K. PACHAURI
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Director, Yale Climate & Energy Institute
28 April 2011, Malaysia
WARMING OF THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM IS UNEQUIVOCAL
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PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES
(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
(oC)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
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OBSERVED CHANGES
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern
hemisphere
snow cover
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INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE
ABOUT 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost
estimate
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THE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS
INCREASED OVER MOST LAND AREAS
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes
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HEAT WAVES HAVE BECOME MORE
FREQUENT OVER MOST LAND AREAS
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
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Photo credit: GoodPlanet
MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS
SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE
TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS
EXPECTED IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREAS
Coastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea level
continues to rise, flooding the homes of millions of people
living in low lying areas
• In India, 1 m sea-level rise would include inundation of
5,763 km2 (Gujarat, Maharashtra, West Bengal
amongst vulnerable states)
• Significant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the
aquaculture industry
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IMPACTS ON WATER
RESOURCES
Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock
avalanches and to affect water resources within
the next 2 to 3 decades
• Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to
increases in sea level and over-exploitation
• In India, gross per capita water availability will decline from
1820 m3/yr in 2001 to 1140 m3/yr in 2050
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IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY
• Water stress at low latitudes means losses of
productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated
agriculture
• Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
50% by 2020 in some African countries
30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
30% by 2080 in Latin America
• Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in africa
due to climate variability and change
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THE NEED FOR MITIGATION
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CHARACTERISTICS OF
STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp.
increase
(ºC)
Year CO2 needs
to peak
Global sea level rise
above pre- industrial
from thermal
expansion
(m)
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 – 2015
0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 – 2020
0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 – 2030
0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 – 2060
0.6 – 2.4
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IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP
GROWTH
GDP
Cost of mitigation
in 2030: max 3%
of global GDP
GDP without
mitigation
Mitigation would
postpone GDP
growth of one year
at most over the
medium term
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
Current
2030
Time
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CO-BENEFITS OF MITIGATION
Common drivers lie behind mitigation policies and
policies addressing economic development, poverty,
health, employment, energy security, and local
environmental protection
Linking policies provide the opportunity for no-regrets
policies reducing greenhouse gases mitigation costs
 CO2 mitigation potential for 2010 without net cost
in India: between 13 and 23% of business as
usual scenario
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FUTURE TRENDS AND
ISSUES IN GLOBAL ENERGY
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY
SCENARIO
SOURCE: WEO 2010
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SHARES OF ENERGY SOURCES IN WORLD
PRIMARY DEMAND BY SCENARIO
SOURCE: WEO 2010
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WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL
IN THE NEW POLICIES SCENARIO
SOURCE: WEO 2010
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NUCLEAR
POWER
Nuclear Power
and AND
its
role
in future
energy
ITS
ROLE
IN FUTURE
security
ENERGY
SECURITY
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NUCLEAR POWER HAS BEEN FORMING AN
INCREASING SHARE OF GLOBAL ENERGY MIX
 Nuclear energy, already at about 7% of total primary energy,
could make an increasing contribution to carbon-free electricity and
heat in the future.
In 2005, 2626 TWh of electricity (16% of the world total) was
generated by nuclear power, requiring about 65,500 t of natural
uranium (WNA, 2006a).
Nuclear power capacity forecasts out to 2030 (IAEA, 2005c; WNA,
2005a; Maeda, 2005; Nuclear News, 2005) vary between 279 and
269 740 GWe.
The worldwide operational performance has improved and the
2003–2005 average unit capacity factor was 83.3% (IAEA, 2006).
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EVOLUTION OF NUCLEAR POWER SYSTEMS
LWR = light-water reactor; PWR = pressurized water reactor; BWR = boiling-water reactor;
ABWR = advanced boiling-water reactor; CANDU = Canada Deuterium Uranium.
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NUCLEAR ENERGY’S POTENTIAL FOR COBENEFITS IN MITIGATION POLICIES
Mitigation policies relating to energy efficiency of plants, fuel
switching, renewable energy uptake and nuclear power, may have several
objectives that imply a diverse range of co-benefits.
Reducing GHG emissions in the energy sector yields a global impact,
but the co-benefits are typically experienced on a local or regional level.
Nuclear energy shares many of the same market co-benefits as
renewables
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MAJOR BARRIERS
 Long-term fuel resource constraints without
recycling
Economics
Safety
Waste management
Security
Proliferation
Adverse public opinion
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A technological society has two choices. First it can wait
until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies,
Be the
you want to see in the world
distortion
andchange
self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances
to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.
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