Download The Politicization of Climate Change

The Politicization of Climate
Change
Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences
University of Washington
April 2017
Three Things are Very Clear
(1) Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases
are Rising Rapidly in the Atmosphere and
Mankind is Doing Relatively Little to Stop It
(2) Increasing greenhouse gases will result
in considerable warming of the planet
(3) The global warming debate in the
U.S. has degraded into highly
politicized, tribal warfare
“Alarmist”
“Luke Warmer”
“Denier”
Politicization of Climate
•
•
•
•
How did it happen?
Did it have to happen?
Why both left and right have been to blame
What have been my experiences trying to find a
middle way.
• What can we do about it now?
% Who Agree That Global
Warming Caused by Man Has
Already Begun to Happen
Global Warming Caused by Humans (%)
Republican (red), Democrat (blue) in 2012
Division in WA State
Republican Have Supported
Environmental Programs in the Past
• Theodore Roosevelt: National Parks
• Richard Nixon: EPA, Clean Air Act, NOAA
• In 1992, President George H. W. Bush (R) signed
the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
• In 2001, his son President George W. Bush created
the Climate Change Research Initiative
• 2007, John McCain stated “I believe climate
change is real. I think it’s devastating.”
So What Happened?
The nation become more politically polarized in
the 1990s, but why did climate become an issue
of division in the 2000s?
Al Gore and Inconvenient Truth
(2006): Did this contribute to
politicization?
Did Exaggeration and Hype on the
Left Undermine the Credibility of
Environmentalists and the Media?
• Most of the impacts of human-caused
climate change are in the future
• Most climate variability of the past
decades was natural.
• Thus, to motivate “proper” action, hype
and exaggeration of current impacts
were used.
Global Warming Leads to Cold
Waves
John Holdren, President Obama’s Science Adviser
2011 Texas Heat Wave
But The Heat
Wave Was
Localized
The 2011 Heat Wave Was Associated
with a Big Ridge over the U.S.
2011 Texas Heat Wave
• There is no reason to expect that the highamplitude, persistent ridge over the central
U.S. is associated with global warming.
• Thus, this event was mainly the result of natural
variability, with a very small enhancement
perhaps by global warming
Seattle’s mayor and others suggested
our snowpack had declined by 50%
Local media have aired stories saying
storms are getting more intense
Some suggest that increasing CO2
is acidifying our local waters killed
billions of oysters
This Week
But there was no flooding
Poor Information on the “Pro”
Side Was Met By Nonsense from
the “Anti” Side
Some suggest that the recent “pause”
means global warming is not occurring
I tried to Counter Some of the
Exaggerated Claims on my Blog
and Paid a Price
An Industry of Climate Advocacy
Groups Developed
As Did a Collection of Opposing
Advocacy Groups and Web Sites
Environmentalists and Democratic
Allies Starting Demanding that
Climate Change Programs Also Deal
With:
Climate Justice, Jobs Programs, Social
Issues, Income Redistribution
A non-starter for most Republicans.
Recently, those on the left worked
against a highly progressive,
bipartisan approach to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in WA
State: revenue neutral carbon tax
Problem:
Most People Are Not Willing to
Sacrifice Much To Deal With the
Problem
Professor Jared Diamond, Author of
Collapse, Guns, Germs and Steel.
No precedent of advanced action
A Large Majority of Americans
Would Not Pay $10. a Month to
Deal with Global Warming
So What Do We Do Now?
It Must Be Bipartisan
Encouraging News: Moderate
Republicans Called for Carbon Tax
The Solution Will Be Technical
Some Climate Change is
Inevitable: Prepare Society to
Adapt and Be More Resilient
Oroville Dam, CA
Safer Nuclear Energy Will Be An
Important Part of the Mix
More Research Needed
• Better climate models
• Understand uncertainties in projections
• Regional Climate Modeling is needed to
understand local impacts
What to Do Now?
• Continue active research on global impacts of
increasing greenhouse gases.
• Support active research to determine local
impacts.
• Support research on new energy technologies
• Revisit nuclear energy
• National Carbon Tax
• Continue investments in renewable energy
What do We Do?
• Encourage mass transportation and energy
efficiency
• Work on bipartisan solutions and don’t
politicize the process.
Remember: Global Warming is
Only A Small Part of the Problem
• Sustainability and population are the real
issues.
The End