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Present day climate modelling – its status and challenges Ulrich Cubasch Institut für Meterologie Freie Universität Berlin sponsored by BMBF and EU Lectures • Present day climate modelling – its status and challenges • Development of a climate m • odel • Projection of future climate change • Modelling past climate Gliederung • • • • • • • Introduction The forcings Simulation of the Eemian Simulating the climate of the last 1000 years Scenario calculations Summary Outlook The „Mann et al“- curve (hockey-stick) Temperature-Reconstruction (treerings, corals, ice and sediment cores, historical evidence) of the temperature of the northern hemisphere from the year 1000 bis 1999 and instrumental temperature from 1902 to 1999 today CO2 Temperature CH4 The Vostock ice core Scientific questions • To what extend does a change in radiative forcing (sun, volcanoes, greenhouse gases, aerosols) influence the climate? – How does solar induced climate variability compare with anthropogenic influences? – How sensitive is the climate system? – How will the climate of the future look like? – Can a climate model simulate the historic climate variability? • Does it confirm the reconstructions? • Can it be used to substitute and/or assimilate proxy-data? – Can the climate model simulate paleo-climatic conditions like ice ages and warm periods as well as the transition between warm and cold stadials? • Does it confirm the climate archives? • Can it be used to substitute and/or assimilate proxy-data? The forcings External Forcing The climate system Orbital parameter excentricity precession excentricity precession obliquity tilt of the earth axis obliquity ~41 ky excentricity ~100 ky ~ 23 und 19 ky precession Change of solar input by orbital parameters Solar variability 1978 1999 Composite solar flux measured by satellites Yearly averaged solar sunspot number The solar forcing anomaly reconstructed by 3 different methods Constituents of the atmosphere Modelling …with Earth? climate change experiments or …in the computer? The physical laws It is assumed that the atmosphere follows physical laws: • the Newtonian equations of motion (for the wind fields) • the laws of thermodynamics • ideal gas equation • the continuity equation for mass The grid representation of a 3-D model Model Resolutions Model validation Validation • By comparison of the mean state • By comparison of the energy and momentum balance • By comparison of the variability • By comparison of the hydrological cycle • By comparison of the processes (cyclons etc.) • By reactions to observed sea-surface temperature changes model error surface temperature DJF flux corrected zonally averaged not flux corrected CMIP Simulations from past to future Simulations of 125 ky BP (Eemian) and 115 ky BP today CO2 Temperature CH4 115 ka bp 125 ka bp Parameters of the simulations CO2 [ppm] Eemian 125k 270 115k 265 presentday 353 CH4 [ppb] 630 520 1720 N2O [ppb] 260 270 310 Eccentricity Obliquity 0.0400 23.79 0.0414 22.41 0.0167 23.44 Precession 127.3 290.9 282.7 125 ky BP 115 ky BP The radiation anomaly compared to present day Reconstruction Velichko et al., 1992 Model July temperature change 125 ka bp F. Kaspar 125 ka bp 115 ka bp The near-surface temperature change (annual mean) F. Kaspar, K. Prömmel 125 ky BP (Eemian) Thickness of snow in summer [m] 115 ky BP Simulations of the last 1000 years Volcanism Solar Radiation + = Effective Forcing Experiments 1. Erik starting at the year 1000 ECHO-G I 2. Columbus starting at the year 1500 ECHO-G II Zorita et al, 2004 Forcing TemperatureResponse Trend The solar and volcanic forcing and the model response Comparison of modelled and reconstructed temperatures Erik HADCM nat. forc. Columbus A comparison with the Hadley-centre simulation Scenario experiments The information chain leading to a climate projection A2 The globally averaged change of the near surface temperature relative to the years 1961-1990, Simulated with coupled ocean atmosphere models B2 The annually averaged change of the near surface temperature for the years 2071-2100 relative to the years 1961-1990, simulated by globally coupled ocean-atmosphere models for the A2-scenario The annual mean change of temperature (map) and the regional seasonal change (upper box: DJF; lower box: JJA) for the scenarios A2 and B2 The temperature change for all SRES marker scenarios (simulated by a simplified model) The temperature evolution of the last 1000 years and the projections for the next 100 years Probability density function for different scenarios and timeintervals, as calculated by HADCM Stott et al, Nature, 2002 AII IS92 Sea level rise (m) 1.0 0.8 0.6 Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 All SRES envelope including land-ice uncertainty 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 Year 2080 2100 The projected sea level change Bars show the range in 2100 produced by several models THC The ocean conveyor belt circulation The change of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic for the IS92a scenario Summary • The paleo climate can be simulated with the coupled ocean-atmosphere models previously employed for climate change predictions • The model simulates the Eemian and the transition to an ice age • Simulations of the climate of the last 1000 years show a larger amplitude in the temperature variability than the proxy reconstructions • The models predict a climate change between 1.4 and 5.8 K. If the uncertainty is taken into account, it might well extend beyond 8 K Outlook Probabilistic approach Probability density functions of temperature change simulated with the Hadley Centre model Stott and Kettleborough, 2002 Probability density distribution of climate projection Allen & Ingram, 2002 Model improvements • too many to name them all • Here is just one example – the role of the stratosphere high index The two states of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) low index The coupling between ocean-atmosphere-stratosphere Pattern: AO & AAO Feature: Midwinter warmings Forcing: QBO ozone Pattern: NAO & PNA solar-cycle ENSO & PDO S T R A T O S P H E R E T R O P O S P H E R E Feature: Blockings over Pacific and Atlantic Forcing: Aerosols, gravity waves Pattern: THC & GC Feature: SST-Anomalies Forcing: Seaice O C E A N C o u p li n g Baldwin,'02 Kodera,'00 Shindell,'99 ? C o u p li n g Hurrell,'01 Schlesinger,'0 Blessmann The coupled ocean-tropospherestratosphere model EGMAM 39 STRATOSPHERE (MESOSPHERE) 19 TROPOSPHERE ● atmosphere: ECHAM4 ● ocean: HOPE - G --------------------------------------- (STRATOSPHERE) ● coupled: ECHO - G OCEAN 20Level Blessmann NAO observations with stratosphere without stratosphere The power spectrum of the 19 level and the 39 level coupled ocean-atmosphere model for the NAO-index Blessmann Ultimate Goal Technical infrastructure • Earth simulator - hardware (Japan) • ESMF (Earth system modelling facility) – software (USA) • PRISM (PRogramme for Integrated earth System Modelling) – software – European Union The science : The users: - General principles - Standard physical interfaces - GUI interface - Configuration editor - Diagnostics outputs PRISM System The technical developments: - System architecture - Coupler and I/O - Software management - Vizualisation and diagnostics The participating models - Atmosphere - Atmos. Chemistry - Ocean - Ocean biogeochemistry - Sea-ice - Land surface On going PRISM / ESMF collaboration Earth System Model Running environment Coupling infrastructure ESMF User code Supporting software PRISM Scientific projects • ENSEMBLES (EU-Project) 70+ partners – Workpackage RT2A: climate change experiments as suggested by IPCC • Climateprediction.com (NERC-project, UK) – Climate change experiments on home PC‘s, similar to yeti@home futurissimo • Comprehensive simulation of the Holocene • Simulation of the last glacial-interglacial • Paleo-data assimilation