Download Climate Change: The Move to Action

Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Kevin Reed
2133 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~kareed/
Winter 2012
February 21, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.ph
p/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Today
• What Are Extreme Events?
• Are They Changing?
• Will Extremes Differ With ‘Climate
Change’?
• Communication
Extreme Weather Events
What is an Extreme?
• Categorizing an event as
“extreme” is a somewhat
arbitrary procedure.
– What is extreme at
one space and time
may be typical at
e
another.
– Extremes are at the

tails of the distribution.
How is “tail” defined?
– Does extreme mean
“rare” or simply high
impact?
• Generalized Extreme
Value Theory
1/ k
 1k(x )/  
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
What is an Extreme?
• Extremes are a natural component of a stable climate.
• However, there are costs!
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
Trends
Temperature
Precipitation
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Trends – Tornadoes?
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Trends – Snow?
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Trends – Tropical Cyclones?
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Trends – Tropical Cyclones?
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Trends - Issues
• Data reliability
– Technology, Coverage
• Natural Variability
• Regional Distributions
• Is there an anthropogenic signature?
Trends
• 2011 was a record-breaking year for Climate Extremes
2011 Extremes
• 14 Events of >$1 Billion in Damage
• Effective Communication?
NOAA News
2011 Extremes
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
2011 Extremes - Ranks
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
U.S. Climate Extreme Index
CEI
NCDC/NOAA – State of the Climate
Communication
• This is one agency’s (NOAA) at
communicating extreme events and trends to
the public?
• Is one of the figures particularly effective?
• As a whole?
• Other sources:
– NOAA – Extreme Weather 2011
– Natural Resources Defense Council
– Wunderground – Expert Blogs
How Might Extremes Change?
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
How Might Extremes Change?
• Changes may be
more complex!
IPCC SREX
Weather and Climate Extremes in a
Changing Climate
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
Projected Precipitation Changes
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
Possible Changes in Hurricanes
Can be basin specific!
Emanuel (2007)
Holland and Webster (2007)
Weather and Climate Extremes in a
Changing Climate
• In general, similar to
IPCC AR4 and IPCC
SREX results.
• Specific to North
America.
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
Importance?
• For U.S.
• Cost are increasing
for many reasons:
– Population growth
– Where people live
– Changes in
extremes (as
shown)
– Vulnerability
(building codes)
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
IPCC Special Report on Extremes
Are These Reports Effective?
• There are differences in the presentation
of information.
• Is one more effective than another?
• What are the strengths?
• Room for improvement?
• How is it different when compared to
IPCC AR4?
Example: Hurricanes
Fractional Change
• Strong storms, but less globally.
Zhao et al. (2009)
Example: Hurricanes
• This is important because:
Meyer et al. (1997)
Example: Hurricanes
• Also… adaptation…
US CCSP Report 3.3 - 2008
Example: Heat Waves
• Barriopedro et al., Russian Heat Wave,
Science, 2011
• Dole et al., Russian Heat Wave, GRL,
2011
• Rahmstorf, Increase of Extreme Events,
PNAS, 2011
• Shearer and Rood, Earthzine, 2011
Example: Heat Waves
• 2010 Russian Heat Wave
They see no signal of the
role anthropogenic
sources
Dole et al. 2011
Example: Heat Waves
• Potential for Future Russian Heat Waves
Scientific Debates
Dole et al. 2011
Example: Heat Waves
• European Heat Waves (1500-2100)
2 500-year events in last
decade!
Barriopedro et al. 2011
Example: Heat Waves
More Communication
• These case studies demonstrate that there is
an attempt to ‘simplify’, or communicate the
science to the public, in the reports that we
have read in class.
• NCAR – AtmosNews
– http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attributi
on/steroids-baseball-climate-change
– Deliberate attempt to increase communication
with public.
• “It’s not the right question to ask if this
storm or that storm is due to global
warming, or is it natural variability.
Nowadays, there’s always an element of
both.” Kevin Trenberth – NCAR
Shearer and Rood (2011)
• Scientist are part of the conversation…
should help frame better questions.
• Two different realities, natural and the
anthropogenically changed… this does
not exist.
• “The result is that scientific debates that
were historically carried out in the slow
deliberations of peer-reviewed journals
are now on public display and can be
misrepresented.”