Download Adapted from a Public Briefing

The Inner Workings of a Climate Report:
An Example
Primary Source:
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3-3:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
1
U.S. Climate Change Science
Program
Synthesis and Assessment
Product 3.3
Weather and Climate Extremes
in a Changing Climate
(North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands)
Adapted from a Public Briefing
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
2
AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Preface Authors: Thomas R. Karl, NOAA; Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR;
Christopher D. Miller, NOAA; William L. Murray, STG, Inc.
Executive Summary Convening Lead Authors: Thomas R. Karl,
NOAA; Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR
Lead Authors: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA; Kenneth E. Kunkel,
Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign, Ill. State Water Survey;
William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State Univ.; David R. Easterling,
NOAA
Editors: Susan J. Hassol, STG, Inc.; Christopher D. Miller, NOAA;
William L. Murray, STG, Inc.; Anne M. Waple, STG, Inc.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Chapter 1 Convening Lead Author: Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA
Lead Authors: David M. Anderson, NOAA; Stewart J. Cohen, Environment
Canada and Univ. of British Columbia; Miguel Cortez-Vázquez, National
Meteorological Service of Mexico; Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Inst. of Ocean
Sciences; Camille Parmesan, Univ. of Tex. at Austin; David Phillips, Environment
Canada; Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA; John M.R. Stone, Carleton Univ.
Contributing Authors: Tamara G. Houston, NOAA; Susan L. Cutter, Univ. of
S.C.; Melanie Gall, Univ. of S.C.
Chapter 2 Convening Lead Author: Kenneth E. Kunkel, Univ. Ill. UrbanaChampaign, Ill. State Water Survey
Lead Authors: Peter D. Bromirski, Scripps Inst. Oceanography, UCSD; Harold E.
Brooks, NOAA; Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigación Científica y de
Educación Superior de Ensenada, Mexico; Arthur V. Douglas, Creighton Univ.;
David R. Easterling, NOAA; Kerry A. Emanuel, Mass. Inst. Tech.; Pavel Ya.
Groisman, Univ. Corp. Atmos. Res.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR; Thomas R. Knutson,
NOAA; James P. Kossin, Univ. Wis., Madison, CIMSS; Paul D. Komar, Oreg. State
Univ.; David H. Levinson, NOAA; Richard L. Smith, Univ. N.C., Chapel Hill
Contributing Authors: Jonathan C. Allan, Oreg. Dept. Geology and Mineral
Industries; Raymond A. Assel, NOAA; Stanley A. Changnon, Univ. Ill. UrbanaChampaign, Ill. State Water Survey; Jay H. Lawrimore, NOAA; Kam-biu Liu, La.
State Univ., Baton Rouge; Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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AUTHOR TEAM FOR THIS REPORT
Chapter 3 Convening Lead Author: William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa
State Univ.
Lead Authors: Gabriele C. Hegerl, Duke Univ.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR;
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA; Linda O. Mearns, NCAR; Ronald J. Stouffer,
NOAA; Peter J. Webster, Ga. Inst. Tech.; Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory; Francis W. Zwiers, Environment Canada
Contributing Authors: Harold E. Brooks, NOAA; Kerry A. Emanuel,
Mass. Inst. Tech.; Paul D. Komar, Oreg. State Univ.; James P. Kossin,
Univ. Wisc., Madison; Kenneth E. Kunkel, Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign,
Ill. State Water Survey; Ruth McDonald, Met Office, United Kingdom;
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR; Robert J. Trapp, Purdue Univ.
Chapter 4 Convening Lead Author: David R. Easterling, NOAA
Lead Authors: David M. Anderson, NOAA; Stewart J. Cohen,
Environment Canada and University of British Columbia; William J.
Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State Univ.; Greg J. Holland, NCAR; Kenneth E.
Kunkel, Univ. Ill. Urbana-Champaign, Ill. State Water Survey; Thomas C.
Peterson, NOAA; Roger S. Pulwarty, NOAA; Michael F. Wehner,
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Appendix A Author: Richard L. Smith, Univ. N.C., Chapel Hill
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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What Are Extremes and Why Do They Matter?
SAP 3.3 follows IPCC
convention (as rare, or
rarer than, the top or
bottom 10 percentiles).
• All tornadoes and
hurricanes are considered
extreme.
• Small changes in averages
for many variables resulting
in larger changes in
extremes.
•
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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What Are Extremes and Why Do They Matter?
•
•
•
•
Having impacts & future changes
associated with continued warming will
present additional challenges.
Impacts of extremes depend on
degree of change in climate
ecosystems and social vulnerability
Extremes are a natural part of
even a stable climate system.
But on balance, because systems
have adapted to their historical
range of extremes, the majority of
events outside this range have
primarily negative impacts.
* This graphic does not include losses that are nonmonetary, e.g., loss of life, biodiversity etc.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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SYNOPSIS
Changes in extreme weather and climate events have significant
human impacts and are among the most serious challenges to
society in coping with a changing climate.
Observed Changes
Many extremes and their associated impacts are now changing. For
example, in recent decades most of North America has been experiencing
more unusually hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights,
and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and
intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions. The power
and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes have increased substantially in recent
decades though mainland land-falling hurricanes do not appear to have
increased over the past century. Outside the tropics storm tracks are
shifting northward and the strongest storms are becoming even stronger.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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SYNOPSIS
Global Attribution Studies
It is well established through formal attribution studies that the
global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to humaninduced increases in heat trapping gasses.
North American Attribution Studies
Such studies have only recently been used to determine the causes of some
changes in extremes at the scale of a continent. Certain aspects of observed
increases in temperature extremes have been linked to human influences. The
increase in heavy precipitation events is associated with an increase in water
vapor, and the latter has been attributed to human-induced warming. No formal
attribution studies for changes in drought severity in North America have been
attempted. There is evidence suggesting a human contribution to recent changes
in hurricane activity as well as in storms outside the tropics, though a confident
assessment will require further study.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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SYNOPSIS
Future Projections
In the future, with continued global warming, heat waves and heavy
downpours are projected to further increase in frequency and intensity.
Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent
droughts of greater severity. Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity,
and storm surge levels are projected to increase. The strongest cold
season storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds
and more extreme wave heights.
Current and future impacts resulting from these changes depend not only
on the changes in extremes, but also on responses by human and
natural systems.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Temperature Extremes
Observed Changes
•
•
•
•
Since the record hot year of 1998, six of the last ten years (1998-2007)
have had annual average temperatures that fall in the hottest 10% of all
years on record for the U.S.
Over recent decades ---Most of North America is experiencing more unusually hot days
and nights. (since 1950 – best coverage)
The number of heat waves (extended periods of extremely hot weather)
has been increasing… but,
Heat waves of the 1930s (e.g., daytime temperatures) remain the
most severe in the U.S. historical record.
There have been fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades.
The last 10 years have seen fewer severe cold waves than for any
other 10-year period in the historical record, which dates back to
1895.
There has been a decrease in frost days and a lengthening of the
frost-free season.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
11
Precipitation Extremes
Observed Changes
•
Heavy downpours have become more frequent and more intense
in recent decades over most of North America and now account
for a larger percentage of total precipitation.
- Intense precipitation events (the heaviest 1%)
in the continental U.S. increased by 20% over the past
century while total precipitation increased by 7%.
•
North American Monsoon
- The season is beginning about 10 days later than usual in
Mexico.
- In SW there are fewer rain events, but the events are more
intense.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Drought Extremes
Observed Changes
•
In North America the most
severe droughts occurred in
the 1930s. There is no
indication of an overall trend
in the observational record
(dates back to 1895).
•
In Mexico and the U.S. SW,
the 1950s were the driest
period, though droughts in
the past 10 years now rival
the 1950s drought.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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STORMS & HURRICANES
Observed Changes
Atlantic
• Tropical storm (TC) PDI has increased since ~ 1970 in association with higher
Atlantic SSTs and likely since 1950s.
• It is likely that the annual numbers of TCs in the North Atlantic has increased over
the past 100 years, a time in which Atlantic SSTs also increased. The evidence is
not compelling for significant trends beginning in the late 1800s.
– Data uncertainty increases as one proceeds back in time
• No trend in US land-falling hurricane counts
• In recent decades during summer and early autumn extreme wave heights have
increased in the Coastal Atlantic States attributed to the recent increase in
Atlantic Hurricanes.
Pacific
• Hurricane intensity in the eastern Pacific has decreased since 1980. Coastal station
observations show that rainfall from hurricanes has nearly doubled since 1950, in
part due to slower moving storms.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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STORMS & HURRICANES
Attribution of Changes
• It is very likely that the human induced
increase in greenhouse gases has contributed
to the increase in SSTs in the hurricane
formation regions.
• There is a strong statistical connection
between tropical Atlantic SSTs and Atlantic
hurricane activity.
• This evidence suggests a substantial human
contribution to recent hurricane activity.
• However, a confident assessment of human
influence on hurricanes will require further
studies with models and observations.
Sea surface temperatures (blue) and the
Power Dissipation Index for North Atlantic
hurricanes
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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STORMS & HURRICANES
Projected Changes
•
It is likely that hurricane rainfall and wind speeds will increase in
response to human-caused warming.
•
For each 1ºC increase in tropical sea surface temperatures, core
rainfall rates will increase by 6-18%.
•
Surface wind speeds of the strongest hurricanes will increase by
about 1-8%.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Other Storms
Observed Changes
Extra-tropical Storms
• There has been a northward shift in the
tracks of strong low-pressure systems in
the past 50 years.
- In the North Pacific, the strongest
storms are becoming even stronger.
- Evidence in the Atlantic is
insufficient to draw a conclusion
about changes in storm strength.
• Increases in extreme wave heights have been
observed along the Pacific Northwest coast of
North America (3 decades of buoy data) and
are likely a reflection of changes in cold
season storm tracks.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Other Storms
Other
Storms
Observed Changes
Snowstorms
• Over the 20th century, there has been considerable
decade-to-decade variability in the frequency of snow
storms (6 inches or more) and ice storms.
• There has been a northward shift in snow storm
occurrence, and this shift, combined with higher
temperature, is consistent with a decrease in snow
cover extent over the U.S.
• In northern Canada, there has also been an observed
increase in heavy snow over the same time period.
• Changes in heavy snow events in southern Canada are
dominated by decade to decade variability.
Local Severe Weather
•
The data used to examine changes in the frequency
and severity of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms
are inadequate to make definitive statements about
actual changes.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
1. The continued development and maintenance of high quality
climate observing systems will improve our ability to monitor
and detect future changes in climate extremes.
2. Efforts to digitize, homogenize, and analyze long-term
observations in the instrumental record with multiple
independent experts and analyses improve our confidence in
detecting past changes in climate extremes.
3. Weather observing systems adhering to standards of
observation consistent with the needs of both the climate and
the weather research communities improve our ability to
detect observed changes in climate extremes.
4. Extended reconstructions of past climate using weather
models initialized with homogenous surface observations would
help improve our understanding of strong extra-tropical
cyclones and other aspects of climate variability.
Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
5. The creation of annually-resolved, regional-scale reconstructions of the climate for
the past 2,000 years would help improve our understanding of very long-term regional
climate variability.
6. Improvements in our understanding of the mechanisms that govern hurricane intensity
would lead to better short-and long-term predictive capabilities.
7. Establishing a globally-consistent wind definition for determining hurricane intensity
would allow for more consistent comparisons across the globe.
8. Improvements in the ability of climate models to recreate the recent past as well as
make projections under a variety of forcing scenarios are dependent on access to both
computational and human resources.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Key priorities for improving our
understanding of climate and weather
extremes in a changing climate:
9. More extensive access to high temporal resolution data (daily, hourly) from climate
model simulations both of the past and for the future would allow for improved
understanding of potential changes in weather and climate extremes.
10. Research should focus on the development of a better understanding of the
physical processes that produce extremes and how these processes change with
climate.
11. Enhanced communication between the climate science community and those who
make climate-sensitive decisions would strengthen our understanding of climate
extremes and their impacts.
12. A reliable database on damage costs, associated with extreme weather and
climate events, and how best to account for changing socioeconomic conditions,
including adaptation over time, would improve our understanding of losses associated
with climate extremes.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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The Inner Workings of a Climate Report:
Extra Slides
Primary Source:
US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3-3:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
22
Red text: CCSP SAP 3.3
Phenomenon and
direction of trend
Warmer and fewer cold
days and nights over
most land areas
Warmer days and more
frequent hot days and
nights over most land
areas
Warm spells/heat
waves. Frequency
increases over most land
areas
Heavy precipitation
events. Frequency (or
proportion of total
rainfall from heavy
falls) increases over
most areas
Area affected by
droughts increases
Intense tropical cyclone
activity increases
23
Comparison of IPCC AR4 & CCSP 3.3 Extremes
Black text: IPCC
Likelihood that trend occurred in
late 20th century (typically post
1960) and global
Likelihood of a human contribution
to observed trend
Likelihood of future trends
based on projections for
21st century using SRES
scenarios
Very likely
Likely
Virtually certain
Last 10 years lower numbers of
severe cold waves than any other 10year period
Fewer frosts, lengthening freeze-free
period
Very likely
Very likely
Likely (nights)
Virtually certain
Most of N. America since 1950
Warm nights, days comparable to
1930s in some states
Likely
Some aspects
Very Likely
Likely
More likely than not
Very likely
Primarily NW two thirds of North
America
Likely certain aspects, e.g., night-time
temperatures & record high annual
temps
Very Likely
Likely
More likely than not
Very likely
Virtually Certain
Triple attribution:
Linked via water vapor increases
Linked to global warming
Linked to greenhouse effects
Very likely
Likely in many regions since 1970
No formal attribution - evidence for
linkage between SST patterns and
1930’s & 1950’s drought
Likely
No overall trend for U.S., but
regional trends evident (more precip
offsets temp increase in most areas)
No formal attribution studies. Evidence
that 1930’s &1950’s drought linked to
SST patterns
Likely in SW North America
Likely in many regions since 1970
More likely than not
Likely
North Atlantic since 1970
Likely N. Atlantic since 1950
Likely Decrease in Eastern Pacific
(Mexico West Coast) since 1980
Double attribution issue. Evidence for
substantial human influence on SST.
Confident linkage to hurricanes not
possible. Requires more study.
Likely
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
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Temperature Extremes
Attribution of Changes
•
Human-induced warming has likely
caused much of the average
temperature increase in North
America over the past 50 years and,
consequently, changes in
temperature extremes. For example…
- The effect of human-induced
emissions of greenhouse gases
has been associated with the
very hot year of 2006 in the U.S.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
25
Temperature Extremes
Projected Changes
• Abnormally hot days and nights and heat waves
are very likely to become more frequent.
• Cold days and cold nights are very likely to
become much less frequent.
• The number of days with frost is very likely
to decrease.
• Increase in the percent of days in a year over
North America in which the daily low
temperature is unusually warm (falling in the top
10% of annual daily lows).
• Sea ice extent is expected to continue to
decrease increasing extreme episodes of
coastal erosion in Arctic Alaska and Canada.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
26
Precipitation Extremes
Attribution of Changes
•
The increase in
precipitation intensity is
consistent with the
observed increases in
atmospheric water vapor
(linked to humaninduced increases in
greenhouse gases).
Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over
North America that falls in heavy events.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
27
Precipitation Extremes
Projected Changes
• On average, precipitation is likely
to be less frequent but more
intense.
• Precipitation extremes are very
likely to increase.
• For a mid-range emission scenario,
daily precipitation so heavy that it
now occurs only once every 20 years
is projected to occur every eight
years or so by the end of this century
over much of Eastern North America.
Increase in the amount of daily precipitation over
North America that falls in heavy events.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
28
Precipitation Extremes
Projected Changes
•
The lightest precipitation
is projected to decrease.
•
The heaviest precipitation
is projected to increase
strongly.
•
Higher greenhouse gas
emission scenarios produce
larger changes in extreme
precipitation.
High Emission Scenario
Middle Emission Scenario
Low Emission Scenario
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
29
Drought Extremes
Attribution of Changes
•
No formal attribution studies for greenhouse
warming and changes in drought severity in North
America have been attempted.
•
Upward trend in temperature has made a
substantial contribution to drought severity where
precipitation has decreased or had little change
The location and severity of droughts are affected
by the spatial pattern of sea surface temperatures.
This appears to have been a factor in the droughts of
the 1930s and 1950s.
•
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
30
Drought Extremes
Projected Changes
•
A contributing factor to drought
severity is higher air temperatures
increasing the potential for
evaporation.
•
It is likely that droughts will become
more severe in the southwestern U.S.
and parts of Mexico.
Photo Credit: Brad Udall
•
In other places where precipitation increases cannot keep pace with
increased evaporation, droughts are also likely to become more severe.
•
It is likely that droughts will continue to be exacerbated by earlier and
possibly lower spring snowmelt run-off in the
mountainous West.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
31
Other Storms
Attribution and Projected Changes
• Human influences on changes
in sea-level pressure patterns
have been detected over the
N.H. and this affects the
location and intensity of
storms.
• There are likely to be more
frequent deep low-pressure
systems (strong storms)
outside the tropics, with
stronger winds and more
extreme wave heights.
Projected changes in intense low pressure systems
(strong storms) during the cold season for the N.H.
for various emission scenarios.
Adapted from CCSP 3.3 Public Briefing
32