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Interactive C-cycle in Earth System models Helge Drange [email protected] Mean change vs uncertainty Most of the effort Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen IPCC (2007) Mean change vs uncertainty Most of the impact Most of the effort Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Goal: Improve knowledge and by that better quantify and, over time, reduce uncertainty IPCC (2007) Ex: Long lived GHG warming vs aerosol cooling IPCC (2007) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Ex: Long lived GHG warming vs aerosol cooling IPCC (2007) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Ex: Long lived GHG warming vs aerosol cooling IPCC (2007) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Ex: Long lived GHG warming vs aerosol cooling How and what if? Uncertainty about magnitude (not sign) of radiative forcing IPCC (2007) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Size and stability of Earth’s carbon reservoirs Reference numbers (ca) (i) Human induced emissions of CO2 per year: 10 Gt-C (ii) Human generated emissions of carbon, 1850-2010: 300 Gt-C (iii) Fossil reserves: 5000 Gt-C Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Very likely Likely Unlikely Highly unlikely Gruber et al. (2004) 10 100 Gt-C 1000 Very likely Land Terrestrial biomass Likely Unlikely Permafrost Highly unlikely Gruber et al. (2004) 10 100 Gt-C 1000 Very likely Land Terrestrial biomass Likely Unlikely Permafrost Stability being discussed Highly unlikely Gruber et al. (2004) 10 100 Gt-C 1000 Very likely Ocean Soft tissue pump Likely Unlikely Methane hydrates Highly unlikely Gruber et al. (2004) 10 100 Gt-C 1000 Very likely Ocean Soft tissue pump Likely Unlikely Methane hydrates Lack of knowledge Highly unlikely Gruber et al. (2004) 10 100 Gt-C 1000 Size and stability of Earth’s carbon reservoirs Summary: Large reservoirs of carbon are found on land and in the ocean. These reservoirs have the potential to greatly influence Earths climate (pending on time scale and degree/speed of warming) Helge Drange Geofysisk institutt Universitetet i Bergen Climate projections Traditional approach EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc. Off-line scenarios from population, energy, economics models Off-line carbon cycle and chemistry models HEATING EFFECT ‘Climate Forcing’ CLIMATE CHANGE Coupled climate models Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Off-line impacts models Climate projections Biogeochemical feedbacks included EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS CO2, methane, etc. Off-line scenarios from population, energy, economics models Off-line carbon cycle and chemistry models HEATING EFFECT ‘Climate Forcing’ CLIMATE CHANGE Coupled climate models Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Off-line impacts models Climate projections Earth System Model EMISSIONS CONCENTRATIONS Off-line scenarios from population, energy, economics models Earth System Model CO2, methane, etc. HEATING EFFECT ‘Climate Forcing’ Standard for the IPCC AR5 (due 2013/14) CLIMATE CHANGE Temp, rain, sea-level, etc. IMPACTS Flooding, food supply, etc. Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen (future ?) Off-line impacts models Land processes Biogeochemical processes on land Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) Biogeochemical processes on land Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) Biogeochemical processes on land Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) Biogeochemical processes on land Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) Tropospheric O3 NPP Biogeochemical processes on land Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) Soil NOx +BVOC O3 formation & CH4 lifetime Biogeochemical processes on land Similar for the ocean. Key challenge: To identify and understand zero-order processes (on the spatial and temporal scale of interest) Arneth et al., Nature Geosci. (2010) BVOC Biogenic secondary aerosols Early findings Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Enhanced warming with interactive carbon cycle? w/interactive CO2 Standard SRES A2 (IPCC AR4) Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Friedlingstein et al. (2006) Enhanced warming with interactive carbon cycle? w/interactive CO2 Standard SRES A2 (IPCC AR4) Tendency for more CO2 remaining in the atmosphere, and for additional warming w/interactive CO2 Standard SRES A2 (IPCC AR4) Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Friedlingstein et al. (2006) CO2 flux from ocean to atmosphere (from EU project ENSEMBLES) 6 4 Hadley IPSL MPI INGV Bjerknes Model mean Gt-C / yr 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1850 1900 Johns et al., Clim. Dynamics (2011) 1950 2000 2050 2100 CO2 flux from ocean to atmosphere (from EU project ENSEMBLES) 6 4 Hadley IPSL MPI INGV BCCR Model mean Gt-C / yr 2 Reduced ocean uptake of CO2 is mainly caused by increased temperature in the ocean surface waters Reduced CO2 solubility Enhanced stratification and reduced vertical mixing Partly also reduced biological production 0 -2 -4 -6 1850 1900 Johns et al., Clim. Dynamics (2011) 1950 2000 2050 2100 CO2 flux from land to atmosphere (from EU project ENSEMBLES) 6 4 Hadley IPSL MPI INGV Bjerknes Model mean Gt-C / yr 2 0 -2 -4 -6 1850 1900 Johns et al., Clim. Dynamics (2011) 1950 2000 2050 2100 Two degrees target Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Permissible emissions with interactive CO2 SP550 SP1000 Stabilization at SP550 requires a cumulative 24% reduction of permissible emissions due to positive carbon cycle feedback (23% for SP1000) Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen MIROC integrated Earth System Model (Kawamiya et al.) Ω (saturation state of calcite) Ocean acidification (and timescales involved) Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Ilyina & Zeebe (2012) Short-term confusion & long-term gain (or academic learning phase vs practical applicability) Helge Drange Geophysical Institute University of Bergen Increased complexity will, generally, lead to (an apparent) growth in model uncertainty, but overall improvement over time Simulated quantity Uncertainty Communication challenge! Observed (true) value Time 2012 AOGCM ESM A few practical and pragmatical marks ✔ Projections, commitments, long-term changes and irreversibility… calls for ESMs ✔ Model verification Common experience that dynamic biogeochemisty in AOGCMs uncover weaknesses in the model's physics, dynamics and/or numerics obs Model evaluation Availability of relevant observations in stead of lot's of “tuning” parameters obs Interdisciplinarity Math/phys based sciences + biology/chemistry/geology/social sci’s ! Model compexity vs Model resolution, long integrations, ensemble integrations ! Model diversity Few very complex and interacting models vs many simplified models ! Model spin-up Physical vs biogeochemical model