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Climate change and the challenges for the Baltic Sea region BUP Students Conference, 12-16 November 2008, Szczecin, Poland Christine Jakobsson Director of the Baltic University Programme Uppsala University A Summary of Our Global Situation “Things are getting better and better and worse and worse faster and faster.” – Tom Atlee AtKisson 2008 The Millennium Development Goals (2005) Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Primary education Women’s equality and empowerment Reduce child mortality Maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc. Environmental sustainability The UN Millennium Development Goals - 2007 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Primary education Women’s equality and empowerment Reduce child mortality Maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc. Environmental sustainability Global partnership for development The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Nature converted to human use (%) Remaining natural systems AtKisson 2008 A Global Transition is Happening ... Faster than We Understand 2050 ? 2050 2050 2020 2007 1960 1900 1000 AD 2000 AtKisson 2008 Something else is happening much faster than we understand Arctic Sea Ice 2007 Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center AtKisson 2008 A Global Transition is Happening ... Faster than We Can Understand Source: International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Exponential Growth Against Firm Limits Has Just Two Possible Outcomes 1. Overshoot and Collapse AtKisson 2008 Tipping Point is no longer just a clever phrase to describe social trends Twelve Possible “Tipping Points” - Where Thresholds are in Sight 1. Amazon Rainforest 2. North Atlantic Current 3. Greenland Ice Sheet 4. Ozone Hole 5. Antarctic Circumpolar Current 6. Sahara Desert 7. Tibetan Plateau 8. Asian Monsoon 9. Methane Clathrates 10. Salinity Valves 11. El Nino 12. West Antarctic Ice Sheet AtKisson 2008 Exponential Growth Against Firm Limits Has Just Two Possible Outcomes 2. Dynamic Equilibrium which is another word for … AtKisson 2008 Too much Sustainability Just enough Not enough AtKisson 2008 IPCC • The IPCC: established in 1988 by WMO & UNEP to assess scientific, technical & socio- economic information to understand climate change, its potential impacts & options for adaptation & mitigation. • The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature. IPCC • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change protocol, Climate Change 2007: – WG 1. The Physical Science Basis, 2 Febr. 2007 – WG 2. "Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability”, 6 April 2007 – WG 3. "Mitigation of Climate Change", 4 May 2007 – "Climate Change 2007" - the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Valencia, Spain, on 17 November 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Process • +2500 scientific expert reviewers • 800 contributing authors • 450 lead authors from • +130 countries Dr. R K Pachauri Chairman Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Increasing global air & ocean temperatures • Rising global average sea level • Reductions of snow and ice Extreme Events • The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas • From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia but declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia • Globally, the area affected by drought has likely increased since the 1970s • There is now higher confidence than in the TAR in projected patterns of warming and other regional-scale features, including changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some aspects of extremes and sea ice Increasing Sea Level Rise • Rate of global average sea level rise has risen from 1.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr from 1961 to 1993 • The reasons for sea level rise has been due to thermal expansion, melting glaciers & ice caps and the polar ice sheets • Projected sea level rise at the end of the 21st Century will be 18-59 cm Anthropogenic warming would lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible • Partial loss of ice sheets on ice polar land could imply: – metres of sea level rise – Major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas – Great effects in river deltas and low-lying islands • Approximately 20-30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction • Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) will have impacts on marine ecosystem productively, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation Solutions • A wide variety of policies and instruments are available to governments to create the incentives for mitigation action. • Stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are either currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades. • An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Vision of UN Secretary-General on Climate Change • “Climate change is a serious threat to development everywhere” • “Today, the time for doubt has passed. The IPCC has unequivocally affirmed the warming of our climate system, and linked it directly to human activity” • “Slowing or even reversing the existing trends of global warming is the defining challenge of our ages” • “Galvanising international action on global warming as one of main priorities as Secretary General” Conclusions from Stern analysis Unless emissions are curbed, climate change will bring high costs for human development, economies and the environment –Concentrations of 550ppm CO2e and above are associated with very high risks of serious economic impacts –Concentrations of 450ppm CO2e and below will be extremely difficult to achieve given where we are now and given current and foreseeable technology Limiting concentrations within this range is possible. The costs are modest relative to the costs of inaction. Decisive and strong international action is urgent: delay means greater risks and higher costs European agreement on a new energy policy • Brussels EUROPEAN COUNCIL, Spring 2007: EU is taking the lead in the fight against global warming. Presidency Conclusions. • EU leaders set a firm target of cutting 20% of the EU’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 • EU will be willing to put this goal up to 30% if the US, China & India make similar commitments. • EU leaders also set a binding overall goal of 20% for renewable energy sources by 2020, compared to the present 6,5%. A binding minimum target of 10% for the share of biofuels in overall transport petrol and diesel consumption by 2020 was also set. "We can say to the rest of the world - Europe is taking the lead. You should join us in fighting climate change", José Barroso “Climate action & renewable energy package": EC’s legislative proposal to achieve agreed EU objectives in the fight against climate change • an improved emissions trading system (ETS) covering more emissions and allowing firms in one EU country to buy allowances in any other • an emission reduction target for industries not covered by the ETS (e.g. buildings, transport, waste) so that everyone is contributing • legally enforceable targets for increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix – the targets will reflect each country's individual needs and its potential • new rules on carbon capture and storage and on environmental subsidies. • Last March, EU leaders endorsed commission proposals to cut CO2 emissions by at least 20% by 2020 (30% if global targets can be agreed on) and to set a binding 20% target for the use of renewable energy sources. The overall goal is to cap global temperature increases at 2°C. • The proposals aim at a more environment-friendly Europe. But they will also help create a more industry-friendly, jobs-friendly, and consumerfriendly EU. • The commission hopes to see the package adopted by the end of 2008. • Emmission trading system will also apply to aircrafts from 2011. Swedish governments 3 climate initiatives • Commission for sustainable development • Scientific council for climate issues • Parliamentarian working committee Sweden has reduced emissions of greenhouse gases > 40% since 1970:ies 1990-2005: reduced GHG emissions >7% & growth has increased with 36% Climate political bill in 2008. Sweden will take a leading role in international negotiations Next large UN climate meeting after Kyoto will be in Denmark 2009. Sweden has climate change as a priority for their chairmanship of the EU in 2009. Road to Copenhagen MARY ROBINSON & MARGOT WALLSTROM • Daily choices & outspoken demands on companies and politicians globally will decide how our climate fares. • WE HAVE about 2,850 days, or 97 months, to save the planet. That is when, according to "doomsday climate experts", we will go beyond the climate's "tipping point". A point where it is no longer likely that we will stay below the 2C temperature rise threshold. giving as many people, business groups and civil society groups as possible a voice in the negotiations on a post-Kyoto agreement. • Road to Copenhagen is a joint initiative: Club of Madrid, Globe Europe &Respect Table. It brings together people from all walks of life who believe that change and a sustainable world is possible. It is web-based and interactive, and open to everyone to engage and discuss directly with politicians, non-governmental organisations and progressive business. Obama and Biden USA Reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80 Percent by 2050 Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050. • The Obama-Biden cap-and-trade policy will require all pollution credits to be auctioned, and proceeds will go to investments in a clean energy future, habitat protections, and rebates and other transition relief for families. Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change. • Obama and Biden will re-engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem. They will also create a Global Energy Forum of the world’s largest emitters to focus exclusively on global energy and environmental issues. Obama and Biden USA Eliminate Our Current Imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 Years Increase Fuel Economy Standards. • Obama and Biden will increase fuel economy standards 4 percent per year while providing $4 billion for domestic automakers to retool their manufacturing facilities in America to produce these vehicles. Get 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars on the Road by 2015. • These vehicles can get up to 150 miles per gallon. Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we should work to ensure these cars are built here in America, instead of factories overseas. Create a New $7,000 Tax Credit for Purchasing Advanced Vehicles. Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard. • Obama and Biden will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce the carbon in our fuels 10 percent by 2020. Obama and Biden will also require 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels to be phased into our fuel supply by 2030. A “Use it or Lose It” Approach to Existing Oil and Gas Leases. • Obama and Biden will require oil companies to develop the 68 million acres of land (over 40 million of which are offshore) which they have already leased and are not drilling on. Promote the Responsible Domestic Production of Oil and Natural Gas. • An Obama-Biden administration will establish a process for early identification of any infrastructure obstacles/shortages or possible federal permitting process delays to drilling in the Bakken Shale formation, the Barnett shale formation, and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska The Hope Graph Transformation Point A Symbolic Representation Objective: Poverty gap Innovation Pollution Destruction of natural habitat Strive to PUSH this point forward and up Empowerment ... implement Sustainability FASTER ... Renewables Fossil fuel use Conservation Unsustainable Technologies & Practices 1880 The Time of Our Lives Awareness Sustainable Technologies & Practices 1920 1960 2000 ... and REDUCE the amount of loss and damage 2040 AtKisson 2008 Thank you for your attention and interest! 34