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Annexure – I: Scientific papers, assessments and reports that show IPCC data to be conservative or inadequate Area IPCC Criticism Title Climate report 'was watered down' Date published / Author Type Mar-07, New Scientist Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Oct-07, National Snow Previous Record Lows and Ice Data Center May-07, Stroeve et al, Arctic sea ice decline: Geophysical Research Arctic sea ice Faster than forecast Letters 34, L09501 decline of Nov-08, Johannessen, 2007 Decreasing Arctic Sea Ice O.M., Atmospheric And Mirrors Increasing CO2 Oceanic Science Letters on Decadal Time Scale 1(1), 51-56 Emission budget approach Irreversibility of climate change Press release Scientific literature Researchers say several references to abrupt climate change included in IPCC AR4 preliminary report written by scientists were removed from the final version after edits by government representatives in the IPCC panel. Arctic sea ice plummets in a sudden dramatic decline in summer of 2007 surpassing previous record by 23%. Arctic sea ice decline till 2006 is shown to be least three decades ahead of projections in IPCC 4th assessment. (Paper was published before the record 2007 melt) Scientific literature Identifies a strengthening empirical linkage between increasing CO2 emissions and decreasing arctic sea ice over the last few decades. Scientific literature Current target of 450 ppm pursued by IPCC is inadequate. A safe range would be 300-325 ppm accounting for the uncertainty in the present planetary energy imbalance. Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Mar-08, Smith et al, PNAS Scientific Intergovernmental Panel 106, 4133–4137 literature on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern” Describes revisions of the sensitivities of the reasons for concerns to increases in global mean temperature and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved since the publication of IPCC third and fourth assessment reports based on additional research published since then. On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead Sep-08, Ramanathan V, Feng Y, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:14245–14250 GHG concentration in the atmosphere at 2005 level is sufficient to cause 2.4°C of warming threatening collapse of climate-tipping points like summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan glaciers and Greenland ice sheet. This warming is masked by the aerosol cooling effect. Future mitigation can only limit further temperature increase and not reduce the already committed warming. Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne Apr-09, Myles R. Allen et Scientific al, Nature 458. doi: literature 10.1038/ nature08019 Policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (or carbon budget) are likely to be more robust than emission-rate or concentration targets that are currently being pursued by UNFCCC. Apr-09, Malte Scientific Meinshausen et al, literature doi:10.1038/nature08017 The probability of exceeding 2°C rises up to 87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020. Target Atmospheric CO2: Apr-07, Hansen et al, Where Should Humanity Open Atmos. Sci.J. Aim? 2:217-231 Dangerous climate change and emission targets Media report Brief Description Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions Recent emission growth Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Oxygen depletion in oceans Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels Ocean acidification Monaco Declaration on Ocean Acidification The Sea-Level Sea-level rise Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse Geological The UCL Johnston-Lavis Hazards Colloquium 2009 Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions: Key Messages Overall scientific assessment Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 Scientific literature Jul-09, German Advisory Policy Council on Global Change recomdns. (WBGU) The United States must cut emissions 100% by 2020, Germany and other industrial nations by 2025 to 2030 and China by 2035 to have a fair chance of avoiding 2°C. Linear projections of change are inadequate. Synthesis of Nov-07, Lenton et al Scientific present knowledge suggests a variety of tipping elements PNAS 105(6), 1786-1793 literature exist. The greatest threats are tipping the Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland ice sheet. Climate change caused today is shown to be largely Feb-09, Susan Solomon Scientific irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. 40% of et al, doi: 10.1073 / literature the CO2 produced till 2100 will remain in atmosphere until pnas.0812721106 at least the year 3000. Oceans will continue rising. The actual emissions growth rate for 2000-2007 exceeded Apr-07, Raupach et al., Scientific the highest forecast growth rates (worst case scenarios) doi: 10.1073/ literature for the decade 2000-2010 in the IPCC Special Report on pnas.0700609104 Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Warming could persist hundreds of thousands of years into Jan-09 Shaffer et al, Scientific the future because natural processes require a long time Nature Geoscience literature to remove carbon dioxide. Substantial reductions in doi:10.1038/ ngeo420 fossil-fuel use is needed to avoid this scenario. Jan-09 Intergovernmental Present ocean acidification rate 100 times faster than Conference Oceanographic natural change and accelerating. Severe damage declaration Commission imminent, will have substantial socioeconomic impact. Feb-09, Mitrovica et al, Scientific Sea-level rise for U.S. coastal sites will be two to three doi: 10.1126/ literature times higher than previously predicted by IPCC. science.1166510 Sep-09 Aon Benfield UCL Scientific Climate change may trigger earthquakes, volcanoes Hazard Research Centre conference tsunamis and avalanches, historical evidence suggests. Mar-09, International Worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are Conference Scientific Congress being realised; inaction is inexcusable and societal declaration Climate Change transformation is required to decarbonise economies. Comprehensive assessment of 400 major scientific Assessment studies reveal that world is already committed to 6.3°C of Sep-09, UNEP of scientific temperature rise by 2100 even if all emission reduction literature proposals on the table are implemented.