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Elicitation of Priors in Bayesian Modeling of Forensic DNA Evidence William C. Thompson University of California, Irvine When should forensic scientists consider priors? • Never? – Invades province of trier-of-fact • When a prior is needed to estimate LR – “Subsidiary prior” – Issues: Whose prior? Based on what? Elicited how? • When modeling whole cases – For benefit of court (e.g., Alkemada) – To explore properties of evidence (e.g., novelty effect) • To apply a categorical reporting threshold??? The Murderer’s Cap • Clerk of convenience store is shot and killed by man wearing a white cap • Killer flees, leaving white “Clemson Tiger” cap at scene • DNA detected on sweat band of cap ProfilerPlus Blue Loci Green Loci ProfilerPlus Yellow Loci Is defendant “included” as a possible contributor to the DNA mixture on the cap? D3 vWA FGA D8 Cap 14,15 (16) 15,16 (17) 24,25 (12) [19.2, 23] 14,15 28,30, (8) 11, 32.2[29] 12,13 (9,11) 12 Def. 14,15 16,16 19.2, 23 30,30 9,11 14,15 D21 D5 13,13 D13 Lab Report: •There are three or more contributors to the mixture; •Defendant is “included” as a possible contributor; •Statistics offered on CPI (Cumulative probability of inclusion) “Inclusion” is contingent on number of contributors D3 vWA FGA D8 D21 D5 Hat 14,15 (16) 15,16 (17) 24,25 [19.2,23] (12) 14,15 28,30, (8) 11, 32.2[29] 12,13 (9,11) 12 Def. 14,15 16,16 19.2,23 14,15 30,30 9,11 13,13 D13 •Defendant could be one of three or more contributors •Defendant cannot be one of two contributors •Can we rule out the possibility of two? Defense Argument • If there are three contributors, why are there so few alleles (three or four per locus across 13 loci) • The probability of seeing so few alleles is higher IF there are two contributors than IF there are three • “If there are two, this case is through.” Prosecution Response: Peak Height Discrepancies Indicate Three Contributors Defense Rejoinder: Peak Height Discrepancies Are Common Unbalanced alleles of 2 contributors— NIST Mixture Study #2 Balanced alleles of same two contributors NIST Mixed Stain Study #2 (2 contributors) Hat alleles (2 contributors?) Result • Six days of deliberation • Jury deadlocked—mistrial • Post-trial interviews reveal…misunderstandings Jurors’ conclusion: Five contributors Likelihood Ratios LR2 = p(E|Def & U1)/p(E|U1 & U2) LR3 = p(E|Def & U1 & U2)/p(E|U1 & U2 & U3) See, Biedermann, Taroni & Thompson, Law Prob. & Risk 10, 89-121 (2011). Sensitivity Analysis (Locus D21) Architecture of Object-Oriented Bayesian Network Modeling of Peak Heights (Julia Mortera) • “Extreme variability of peaks” makes mixture difficult to explain under either model • For 2 person mixture: – Hp: Suspect and 1 unknown—1.77 x 10-108 – Hd: 2 unknowns—1.94 x 10-111 – LR=911 • For 3 person mixture – Hp: Suspect and 2 unknowns—1.5 x 10-107 – Hd: 3 unknowns—5.5 x 10-111 – LR=2697 Whose priors? • Parties (prosecution/defense)? • Jurors? • DNA expert? Based on what? • Observations on cap in question? • General knowledge about caps? • General knowledge about clothing worn by criminals? • Other evidence in the case? Avoiding bias • Should person estimating the prior be aware of the consequences? • What should that person be told about the case? Possible elicitation script • A store clerk was shot and killed during a robbery. Surveillance video revealed that the shooter wore a white cap. The white cap was found at the scene. It appeared to be clean apart from some light staining on the sweat band. It appeared to be relatively new. Possible elicitation script • Suppose a DNA sample is found on the sweat band of this cap. What is your best estimate of the probability the sample would contain alleles from: – – – – – One contributor only: Two contributors: Three contributors: Four or more contributors: Sum (Please make sure your estimates sum to one) _______ _______ _______ _______ _______ DNA Profile of Cap—ProfilerPlus Blue Loci DNA Profile of Defendant DNA Profile of Cap—ProfilerPlus Green Loci Profile of Defendant DNA Profile of Cap—ProfilerPlus Yellow Loci Profile of Defendant