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Climate Change
Making Up Your Mind
Confused by ‘sceptical’claims
about global warming?
Here is what the science says.
Contents
What we know about climate change
The scientific story so far
myths
2
5
6
Where can i find more information?
24
references and endnotes
25
Climate Institute I 1
The 10 Myths of
Climate Change
Volcanoes emit
more carbon
dioxide than
humans possibly
could.
scientists can’t
agree.the jury is
still out.
it’s just part of
natural change.
the globe has
stopped warming.
it’s the sun.
carbon dioxide
is not a pollutant;
it’s natural and
essential for life.
Far back in time,
global warming
episodes had nothing
to do with carbon
dioxide levels.
australia has always
had droughts, heat
waves and extreme
bushfire weather.
there is no link to
climate change.
Global Warming is
good for us!
scientists have
exaggerated claims
that the world’s
glaciers are
disappearing.
What we know about
climate change
The scientific story so far1
“I see myself as a climate change sceptic
and a sceptic looks at the evidence
and bases conclusions on the evidence
rather than on belief. To hold the view
that this is not an issue that you need to
do something about, to hold the view
that it’s all a furphy takes belief.”
Professor Ross Garnaut, AO, Economist and author of the Garnaut
Climate Change Review2
The world is warming at a rate unprecedented in
human history. Global air temperatures, humidity
and rainfall patterns show a distinct ‘fingerprint’
that cannot be explained without the rise in
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
greenhouse gases caused by human activity.
The level of CO2 has risen sharply and is now about
30 % higher than at any time for 800,000 years.3
About 20 % to 30 % of plant and animal species
assessed so far are likely to be at increased
risk of extinction, if increases in global average
temperature climb 1.5°C to 2.5°C above where
they were before the Industrial Revolution.
Furthermore, the world’s oceans are absorbing
some of the additional CO2 and are becoming more
acidic as a result, with serious consequences for
marine life and for people who depend on the sea
to sustain them.
In Australia, the mean temperature has increased
by about 0.7°C since 1960. Some areas have
experienced a warming of 1.5°C to 2°C over the
past 50 years.
The number of days with record hot temperatures
has increased each decade, with the decade from
2000 to 2009 being Australia’s warmest on record.
Note: The text here draws on peer-reviewed
scientific literature, consensus or mainstream
Globally, the average temperature has risen by
scientific opinion, and reviews of the literature
about 0.75°C over the last 100 years. The rate of
undertaken by experts in the field. Neither the
warming is increasing and over the 50 years from
discussion of topics nor the references cited are
1956 to 2005 the world warmed about 0.13°C, on
intended to be exhaustive. Climate change is a
average, every decade.
complex subject and we have endeavoured to
Global warming is also driving increases in seasummarise and pull together the best available and
level. Global average sea-level is rising at about
most relevant scientific information in a way that is
3.1 millimetres per year and is now 57 millimetres
accessible to most people. We encourage you to
higher than it was in 1993. Decreases in snow and access the resources provided in the “Where can I
ice cover are also consistent with a warming planet. find more information?” section of this document
for more information.
There are now many studies showing that climatic
change is driving significant changes, such as the
recent warming and prolonged drought conditions
across Australia and an increased frequency and
severity of bushfires in the country’s southeast.
4
Climate Institute I 5
Scientists can’t agree.
The jury is still out.
Fact An overwhelming majority of
scientists agree that human activity is
largely responsible for recent warming.
There is consensus among scientists that
the climate is being changed by human
activity, in the same way as there is
consensus on the existence of gravity or
that the Earth is round.4
“Anyone who watches the evening news or trolls the
internet knows that there is enormous debate about
climate change, right? Well, no.”
Prof Naomi Oreskes, Professor of History and Science Studies,
University of California, San Diego.5
Dozens of the most prominent scientific
academies and associations have re-affirmed
the majority scientific view that says the world is
warming rapidly, that human activity is highly likely
to be the main cause, and that prompt action is
necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.
These include the leading academies in 13 of the
world’s most powerful developed and developing
countries, including the US, Japan, the UK,
Germany, Canada, China, Russia and India, who
issued a joint declaration on climate change in 2009.6
Of course, there will always be a few who question
whether humans are causing climate change.
Some may have a personal, political or even
financial interest they feel is threatened by the
scientific consensus.
A small few are active in relevant fields, but the
vast majority of scientists with relevant, high-level
qualifications agree that human activity is the main
force behind climate change.7 With each passing
year, the science underpinning climate change has
been getting stronger and stronger. Knowledge gaps
remain of course, but the scientific community is
surer than it has ever been. This is why the world’s
leading academic institutions and an increasing
number of individual experts have called for action. 8
It’s just part of
natural change.
Fact The climate has changed
throughout the Earth’s history but this
isn’t the same as saying that global
warming in today’s era is natural. In
fact, past changes help scientists to
understand the sensitivity of the global
climate to forces such as the Sun,
volcanoes and greenhouse gases.
It’s one thing to say that the Earth’s climate is
always changing, because of course it is. It’s quite
another to leap to the conclusion that just because
past changes were natural, global warming today is
also natural.
After decades of research by many different
academic institutions around the world, scientists
have become more and more confident that the
world is warming rapidly, and that most of this
warming since the Industrial Revolution is due to
human activity.
In fact, past changes actually help scientists to
understand the sensitivity of the global climate to
the Sun or volcanoes or CO2 and other greenhouse
gases.10
The scientific community has rigorously examined
the other candidates for the cause of the warming
in recent decades – forces that have changed
the climate in the past, such as changes in the
Sun’s output or volcanic eruptions – and found
them wanting.11
“There is always some uncertainty associated with
scientific conclusions; science never absolutely
proves anything. When someone says that society
should wait until scientists are absolutely certain
before taking any action, it is the same as saying
society should never take action. For a problem as
potentially catastrophic as climate change, taking no
action poses a dangerous risk for our planet.”
Letter from 255 members of the United States National Academy of
Science to the journal Science9
6
Climate Institute I 7
The globe has
stopped warming.
Fact Temperature records clearly show
the world has continued to warm over
the past century.
The The three main scientific centres12 that track
global surface temperatures all say that the decade
from 2000 to 2009 was the warmest on record13.
Global near-surface temperatures:
Annual anomalies 1850 – 2006
Each of these centres separately analyse
temperature data supplied from thousands of
weather stations on land14 and from thousands
of measurements taken from sea surface
temperatures15.
In fact, all the years from 2000 to 2009 have been in
the top 15 warmest years on record.
Globally, the average temperature has risen by about
0.75°C over the last 100 years.
Other studies, based on indirect measurements of
Northern Hemisphere temperature data from much
further back in time, indicate it is warmer now in that
hemisphere than it has been for at least 1,300 years.16
Some think that because parts of the Northern
Hemisphere have had record cold spells, the globe
can’t be warming. However, much of the Northern
Hemisphere experienced an unusually warm winter
in 2009-2010! Even though parts of Europe and
North America were unusually cold in December
2009, this was the fifth warmest year on record.17
Weather and climate are not the same thing.
Weather is the state of the atmosphere on any given
day, and it varies a lot from day to day and hour to
hour. Climate is the average condition prevailing over
years, decades and centuries.
8
Global warming doesn’t mean that each year will be
hotter than the last. There has always been, and will
always be, short-term variation in climate. There will
still be cold spells but, taking the planet as a whole,
we are witnessing warming at a rate and to an extent
not seen since the end of the last Ice Age.
Temperature difference (•C)
with respect to 1961-1990
Each has reached the same conclusion: the globe is
still warming.
1860188019001920194019601980 2000
This graph shows how actual temperatures compare to the 1951-1980 mean temperature (a type of
graph that shows temperature anomalies). It shows a warming trend over many years.
It also shows how temperatures can temporarily fluctuate due to natural events. For example, in 1963
the eruption of Mount Agung in Indonesia caused a temporary drop in global temperature because
so much ash spewed into the atmosphere, dimming warmth from the Sun. And, in 1998 the global
temperature was particularly high because of an El Niño event. However, the long-term, continuing
warming trend is clear.
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Change
Climate Institute I 9
It’s the Sun.
Fact The Sun obviously has a big
influence on the Earth but changes in
the Sun’s activity cannot explain the
rise in global temperatures in recent
decades. If anything, the Sun’s output
has diminished in recent decades yet
the world is still warming.
“Climate change is real and it is happening much
faster than it has before… We know that recent
warming is largely due to human activities. Nothing
else explains it.”
CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 200918
The Sun certainly influences the climate, but if recent
warming was caused by a more active Sun, then
scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures
in all layers of the atmosphere. However, only the
surface and the lower atmosphere are warming,
while the upper atmosphere is cooling. This is
because CO2 and other greenhouse gases are
trapping heat in the lower atmosphere.
In recent years, many scientific studies have carefully
looked for any sign that the Sun is to blame for
global warming; all credible evidence strongly
suggests that the influence of greenhouse gases is
far, far greater.19
In fact, for the last 35 years the Sun has been
exceptionally cool. At the same time, however, global
average temperatures have risen.20
Some believe that cosmic rays or the position of
the Earth in the galaxy influence such things as
cloud formation. It’s far from clear how these rays
affect cloud formation. Furthermore, increases and
decreases in cosmic rays reaching the Earth don’t
correspond to global total cloud cover after 1991.21
10
Climate Institute I 11
Scientists have
exaggerated claims
that the world’s glaciers
are disappearing.
Fact The IPCC’s 2007 assessment
report holds up extremely well under the
most rigorous, independent scrutiny. It’s
important to keep things in perspective:
Among hundreds of pages of projected
regional impacts, only three “significant
errors” have been confirmed, all of
which were honest mistakes and none
of which affect the IPCC’s overarching
advice at all.
The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) was a massive international
effort, involving thousands of scientists working in
more than 130 countries. The fact that so many
scientists from many different disciplines, together
with more than a hundred governments, could even
reach a consensus says a lot about the strength of
the evidence for human-induced climate change.
Also, the IPCC is not the only body to assess the
science of climate change. For example, as noted
earlier, the leading science academies in 13 of the
world’s most influential developed and developing
countries, including the US, Japan, the UK,
Germany, Canada, China, Russia and India, have
supported the conclusions of the IPCC.
“There is mounting evidence that climate change is
triggering a shrinking and thinning of many glaciers
world-wide which may eventually put at risk water
supplies for hundreds of millions — if not billions
— of people.”
World Glacier Monitoring Service & United Nations Environment
Programme22
While numerous ‘sceptics’ and some newspapers
claimed to have found many errors, there were, in
reality, only a smattering, all of which were honest
mistakes. Any written work this ambitious runs the
risk of making a few errors.
Since its work began in the late 1980s, the IPCC
has been the subject of intense scientific and media
scrutiny. The latest independent review, this time by
the Dutch environmental agency (PBL), reaffirmed
the IPCC’s basic advice to policy makers.23
12
Indeed, out of hundreds of pages, the Dutch could
find only three significant shortcomings, which,
they say, did not undermine the IPCC’s overarching
conclusions at all.
The IPCC had already acknowledged its mistake24 in
predicting a “very high” likelihood that glaciers in the
Himalayas would disappear by 2035 “and perhaps
sooner”.25 It has set in motion an independent review
of its procedures to minimise the risk of making this
kind of mistake again.26
While this specific claim is wrong, it does not mean
that global warming isn’t affecting the world’s glaciers.
Measurements taken by the World Glacier Monitoring
Service of hundreds of glaciers around the planet
paint a grim picture - the world is losing ice as it heats
up.27 Cutting greenhouse gas emissions would save
the many millions of people who rely on glacial meltwater for drinking and agriculture from a dire future.
The next “significant error” was, ironically, to cite
a Dutch government paper that stated a large
percentage of the Netherlands lies “below sea-level”
when in fact it is simply “subject to flooding”. The
Dutch themselves have admitted to providing the
IPCC with poorly worded information.
The only other substantive error had to do with fish
stocks off the African west coast: The 2007 report
speaks of a “50 to 60%” decline in productivity of
an anchovy fishery but these figures actually relate
to wind turbulence, not fish stocks. Here again it
was nothing more than a misreading of numbers in
the original scientific paper. A mistake, certainly, but
clearly an honest one.
PBL also notes a few, minor referencing, wording
and other inaccuracies crept into the 2007 report.
While there is room for improvement in the way the
IPCC prepares its reports, its overarching advice
remains sound. In true scientific spirit, the IPCC has
welcomed the criticism.28
Indeed, far from being ‘alarmist’, there is evidence
that the IPCC may have sometimes been too
conservative. Projections of sea-level rise for instance,
were probably underestimated in the 2007 report.29
In other cases, reports have turned out to be false
or at least grossly distorted: The UK Sunday Times
newspaper recently issued an apology for twisting
the facts, making up quotes and misrepresenting
experts in a front-page report on the IPCC’s
assessment of impacts on the Amazon rainforest.30
In a related incident, thousands of emails to and
from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the
University of East Anglia were hacked and splashed
across the Web, some of which claimed to show
that the scientists had dishonestly changed or
hidden data.
But, four separate and independent inquiries,
including one by the UK House of Commons,31
have all cleared the scientists of any wrongdoing
whatsoever.32
As one inquiry panel put it “we saw no evidence of
any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the
work of the Climatic Research Unit and had it been
there we believe that it is likely that we would have
detected it.”33
Climate Institute I 13
Volcanoes emit more
carbon dioxide than
humans possibly could.
Fact Volcanoes emit less than 1% of the
CO2 humans put into the atmosphere in a
year. This percentage is growing smaller
as emissions from human activities
continue to rise.
Volcanic activity occurs both on the land surface
and underwater. Current submarine volcanoes may
emit as much as 97 million tonnes of CO2 each
year (compared to Australia’s national emissions
of 425 million tonnes), but this is offset by carbon
sequestered in phytoplankton blooms around
undersea volcanic vents and by newly created
volcanic lava on the ocean floor.34
Volcanoes on the land (called ‘subaerial’ volcanoes)
are estimated to emit around 242 million tonnes of
CO2 a year. Compare this with the 29 billion tonnes,
and rising, of CO2 emitted by human activity each
year.35 That is more than 100 times as much CO2
than is contributed by volcanic activity.
There is no doubt that volcanoes affect the climate,
such as when Krakatoa (Indonesia) erupted in 1883
or Mount Pinatubo (the Philippines) erupted in 1991,
lifting aerosols (such as sulphur dioxide) and dust high
into the air, reflecting sunlight back into space and
actually causing widespread cooling for several years.36
14
Climate Institute I 15
Far back in time, global
warming episodes
had nothing to do with
carbon dioxide levels.
Fact Carbon role of CO2 in the planet’s
history is reasonably well understood.
While changes in CO2 levels are
certainly not the only force at work on
the climate, past climate change cannot
be explained without an understanding
of the greenhouse properties of CO2.
Our planet is billions of years old. In that time, many
things have triggered episodes of warming and
cooling and many things have influenced the extent
and length of these climate changes. When global
temperatures change, the carbon cycle38 changes in
response and vice versa.
The great ice ages – caused by slight, occasional
changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun – led to
lower CO2 concentrations, reducing the greenhouse
effect and enhancing the cold across the planet. At
the end of the last ice age, the oceans warmed and
released stored CO2, which amplified the warming.39
No-one claims that the build up of CO2 kick-started
every episode of warming in the Earth’s history.
Historically, changes in solar activity and volcanic
activity are particularly important natural causes of
climate change.
Carbon dioxide is not
a pollutant; it’s natural
and essential for life.
Fact ‘Natural’ does not always
equal ‘safe’. Rapidly increasing high
concentrations of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases generated by human
activity are jeopardising human health
and wellbeing, and are most certainly
pollutants.
Just because a substance is natural or even
essential does not mean it cannot do harm in the
wrong context or in high concentrations. Oxygen is
entirely natural and, of course, without it we would
suffocate. However, too high a concentration of
oxygen is poisonous. Likewise, the deadly toxin
cyanide is a naturally occurring compound found in
a wide variety of plants, including nuts and fruits.
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reached 385 parts
per million (ppm) in 2008, higher than at any time for
at least 800,000 years.37 CO2, together with methane,
nitrous oxide and many other artificially produced
greenhouse gases are causing the atmosphere to
heat up, posing a huge health risk for humans and
many other species besides. In this sense then,
the greenhouse gases we emit are without doubt
pollutants in the truest sense of the word.
Sometimes, the term ‘carbon pollution’, while not a
scientific term, is used as a short-hand catch-all term
for greenhouse gases emitted by human activity.
16
Climate Institute I 17
18
Climate Institute I 19
Australia has always had
droughts, heat waves
and extreme bushfire
weather. There is no link
to climate change.
Fact Droughts, heat waves and
bushfires are far from unusual in
Australia but many scientists say there
is a human signature in recent extreme
events, making Australia’s already highly
variable climate even more hostile.
“Decisions by the Australian and the Victorian
governments, together with those of other
governments around the world, on reducing
greenhouse gas emissions will have a direct
influence on increases in the risk of very high
and extreme fire danger days in Victoria due to
anthropogenic climate change.”
Prof. David Karoly, Professor of Meteorology,
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne.40
In February 2009, Victorians were hit with the most
devastating fires in Australia’s history. Around the
world, wildfire patterns are shifting, with increases in
frequency and intensity of fire as emissions rise and
the planet continues to heat up.
Many experts concluded that if climate change
did not light Victoria’s February 2009 bushfires, it
certainly stirred the cocktail of conditions necessary
for the catastrophe, including prolonged drought.
Two years earlier, in 2007, the Bushfire Cooperative
Research Centre, the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology, CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric
Research and The Climate Institute jointly concluded
that there is a general trend towards more fire
weather over southeastern Australia since the 1970s.
Indeed, the majority of more intense fire seasons
have occurred since the late 1990s, with seasons
starting earlier and finishing later. 41
20
Modelling of near-future fire weather risk in the
southeast of Australia indicated that, on present
trends of global warming, the incidence of
catastrophic fire days would nearly double by 2020.
By 2050, the modelling suggests, Melbournians risk a
catastrophic fire day not once in every 33 years as at
present but once every two and a half years.
Climate change is bringing about dramatic and very
fast shifts in fire danger in many parts of the world,
according to a recent study by the University of
California, Berkeley and Texas Tech University. While
some regions may experience reduced fire danger,
others – such as Tibet and California – will suffer
worsening conditions.42
Prolonged, recurrent drought is certainly one of the
key ingredients in worsening fire weather conditions
in Australia. The most recent dry period that gripped
much of the continent has generally been hotter, with
higher maximum and minimum temperatures than
in earlier big droughts, such as in the 1930s and
1940s.43 These conditions are consistent with the
science of global warming.
A recent report by the CSIRO and Bureau of
Meteorology (BoM) concluded that droughts in
southeastern Australia were growing in extent and
frequency. Within a few decades, they suggest,
drought conditions requiring an “exceptional
circumstances” declaration would occur on average
not once every quarter century, but once every two
years or so.44
Climate Institute I 21
Global Warming
is good for us!
Fact While we can all hope for the best,
left unchecked, climate change will
undoubtedly make life a lot harder for a
great many people, especially the world’s
poor who can least afford to adapt.
“Climate scientists are probably the only scientists
in the world who go to work in the morning hoping
upon hope that they’re wrong.”
Professor Dave Griggs, Director, Monash Sustainability Institute45
The direct impacts of a rapidly changing climate
are likely to include hotter weather, less rainfall
(or, conversely, heavier floods), higher fire risk, the
emergence of new diseases and the spread of
old ones.46
In the short-term, like any change, there will
be winners and losers along the way. In higher
latitudes, warmer weather will allow longer growing
seasons and reduce the need for heating. On the
other hand, more frequent and hotter heat waves
will take their toll on the elderly and sick especially.47
In a world heading for a population of more than
nine billion by mid-century, more hostile climatic
conditions are likely to make existing hunger,
poverty, disease, conflict and environmental
degradation even worse. In tropical countries,
reduced rainfall will make food production difficult.
Around low-lying coasts and islands, rising sealevels and storm surges will threaten communities
worldwide.48 People will move as they look to
escape the impacts on their homes, but in a
crowded world mass migrations may compound
pre-existing tensions.
22
Some people seem to think that global warming
means the world will shift in a steady, gentle,
incremental fashion towards a new, comfortable
if somewhat warmer climate. In fact, the history
of climate change teaches us that it is likely to be
anything but gentle and comfortable. Instead, the
climate may swing abruptly in the space of a few
decades, as it has done several times since the end
of the last Ice Age.49 Rapid climate change puts
pressure on communities, plays havoc with natural
ecosystems and food production, and generally
makes life much more uncertain.50
It’s often suggested that a richer mix of CO2 in the
air will boost food production. While it’s broadly
true more CO2 boosts plant growth, it’s not known
exactly what impacts this so-called ‘CO2 fertilisation
effect’ is likely to have. Denser vegetation can
make landscapes more fire-prone. Weeds, as well
as crops and pastures, will be spurred on, raising
the cost of farming. Higher concentrations of CO2
are also known to reduce the nutritional quality of
some staples, such as wheat, and increase the
atmospheric concentration of ozone at ground level,
impeding plant growth.51 At some point, we might
expect any positive impact on agriculture from extra
CO2 to be overwhelmed by all of the other impacts
of climate change.
Climate Institute I 23
Where can I find
more information?
1. Australian Academy of Science http://www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange2010/index.html
The objectives of the Academy are to promote excellence in science. Based on a series of key
questions, the Academy has addressed confusion created by contradictory information in the public
domain. They set the current situation in climate science, including where there is consensus in the
scientific community and where uncertainties exist.
References and Endnotes
1
CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate, 2009 http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pvfo.pdf
(accessed 03/06/10); The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate
Science. Allison, et al. UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney NSW. (2009) http://www.
copenhagendiagnosis.com/ (accessed 01/06/10); Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. An
Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on a draft prepared by L.
Bernstein, et al. (2007): 39 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf (accessed
04/06/10); CSIRO. Climate Change in Australia. Technical Report 2007. CSIRO. (2007) http://
www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.html (accessed 06/06/10). For an
excellent “real-time” overview of key data, such sea-level rise, CO2 concentrations, Arctic ice extent,
etc., visit NASA’s Global Climate Change site at http://climate.nasa.gov/ (accessed 09/06/10)
2
R. Garnaut, Victorian Climate Change Summit, Session Two, Parliament House, Melbourne (April 4,
2008) http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/summit/Transcript_2.html (accessed 04/06/10)
3
J. Slingo, Explaining the evidence of climate change, UK Met Office, Hadley Centre. http://www.
metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/controversy/facts.html (accessed 04/06/10)
4
P.H. Gleick, et al. “Climate Change and the Integrity of Science.” Science 328, no. 5979 (May 2010)
689 – 690. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5979/689 (accessed 04/06/2010)
5
N. Oreskes, “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?” in
Joseph F. DiMento & Pamela Doughman. Climate Change, p. 73. (MIT Press, 2007).
2. CSIRO http://www.csiro.au/science/Changing-Climate.html
The CSIRO is a world leader in climate science. Here they compile up-to-date, accessible information
on what the science is saying about our changing climate and what it means for all Australians.
3. Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/
The BoM provides policy-makers and all Australians with up-to-date information on the state of the
Australian climate, together with a sound introduction to climate change now and into the future.
4. US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Climate Change
http://climate.nasa.gov/
NASA provides an excellent overview of the science behind our understanding of climate change,
including real-time indicators such as global temperature, sea-level and CO2 levels.
5. US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch
NOAA is the Unites States Government’s lead climate science agency providing solid scientific
information to inform decisions at every level of American and global society.
6. UK Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/
The Hadley Centre at the UK Met Office is one of the key institutions monitoring climate change and
its impacts in the United Kingdom and around the world. It communicates the latest science in a
user-friendly way to the public.
7. Skeptical Science http://www.skepticalscience.com/
A highly accessible, interactive website that uses peer-reviewed science to counter a lot of myths
and misconceptions about climate change, and encourages genuine scientific scepticism.
8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis
Report http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html
The IPCC’s website not only has information on climate change, it’s likely causes and
consequences, but on how it compiles and reviews scientific literature.
9. The Garnaut Climate Change Review http://www.garnautreview.org.au/synopsis.htm
Professor Ross Garnaut’s analysis of what climate change means for Australia now and into the
future. The Synopsis of Key Points summarises his findings.
6
G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies
for a low carbon future http://www.nationalacademies.org/includes/G8+5energy-climate09.pdf
(accessed 04/06/10)
7
P.T. Doran & M.K. Zimmerman, “Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.” Eos,
Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 90, No. 3 (January 2009): 21 & 22. http://tigger.
uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf (accessed 07/06/10)
8
‘Carbon’ is used here as shorthand for ‘greenhouse gases’, including but not limited to carbon
dioxide. The word ‘pollution’ is used to emphasise the damage being caused by an excess of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
9
P.H. Gleick, et al. “Climate Change and the Integrity of Science.” Science 328, no. 5979 (May 2010)
689 – 690. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/328/5979/689 (accessed 04/06/2010)
10
R. Knutti & G.C. Hergel, “The equilibrium sensitivity of the Earth’s temperature to radiation changes.”
Nature Geoscience 1 (October 2008): 735-743
11
See, for example Erlykin, A.D., et al., “Solar Activity and the Mean Global Temperature.” Environ.
Res. Lett. 4, no. 1 (January 2009). For a longer list of links to recent research papers that examine
the role of the Sun in global warming, see also “Solar activity & climate: Is the sun causing global
warming?” Skeptical Science. http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-globalwarming.htm (accessed 03/06/10).
12
The United Kingdom’s Met Office’s Hadley Centre, and centres at NASA and the Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration in the United States.
13
The phrase ‘on record’ refers to the time since about 1880, before which direct temperature data
are too patchy and unreliable. Scientists use a variety of temperature ‘proxies’ which, taken together,
indicate how the climate has changed further back.
14
For example, the UK Met Office draws on land data from about 8,000 stations.
10. The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on Climate Science
http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/
Prepared by some of the world’s leading experts on climate science, this short report outlines the
latest scientific information on climate change, gathered in the three years since the IPCC’s last report.
11. New Scientist’s Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462
One of the world’s most popular and reputable science magazine with a special section dealing with
common myths and misconceptions about climate change, and explaining the science.
12. The Climate Institute http://www.climateinstitute.org.au
Established in late 2005, The Climate Institute is a non-partisan, independent research organisation
that works with community, business and government to drive innovative and effective climate
change solutions. We research. We educate. We communicate.
24
Climate Institute I 25
15
Because oceans cover so much of our planet, scientists use sea surface data gathered from buoys and
satellites to more accurately determine the planet’s average surface temperature.
16
Several independent studies indicate it is likely (with a probability greater than 66%) that the last 50 years were
the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere for at least 1300 years and that this warmth is more widespread
across the hemisphere than it has been for at least that amount of time. (Data limitations so far prevent
estimates over this time-scale for the Southern Hemisphere). See Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. An
Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on a draft prepared by L. Bernstein, et
al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, 2007) http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessmentreport/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf (accessed 04/06/10)
17
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. State of the Climate - Global Analysis - Annual 2009.
National Climatic Data Center. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=1&submitt
ed=Get+Report (accessed 06/06/10)
18
CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate. (2009) http://www.csiro.au/files/files/pvfo.pdf (accessed
03/06/10)
19
See, for example A.D. Erlykin, et al., “Solar Activity and the Mean Global Temperature.” Environ. Res. Lett.
4, no. 1 (January 2009). For a longer list of links to recent research papers that examine the role of the Sun
in global warming, see also “Solar activity & climate: Is the sun causing global warming?” Skeptical Science.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm (accessed June 3, 2010).
20
M. Lockwood. “Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of
contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise.” Proc. R. Soc. A 464, no. 2094 (June 2008): 13871404.
21
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “TS.2.4 Radiative Forcing Due to Solar Activity and Volcanic
Eruptions.” Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis http://www.ipcc.ch/
publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-4.html (accessed 06/06/10
22
World Glacier Monitoring Service & United Nations Environment Programme. Global glacier changes: facts
and figures. WGMS (2008) http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/ (accessed 10/06/10)
23
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Assessing an IPCC assessment: An analysis of
statements on projected regional impacts in the 2007 report (PBL, The Hague/Bilthoven, 2010) http://
www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Assessing-an-IPCC-assessment.-An-analysis-of-statements-on-projectedregional-impacts-in-the-2007-report.html (accessed 06/07/10)
24
IPCC Secretariat. IPCC Statement on the melting of the Himalayan glaciers. IPCC. (Geneva, January 20,
2010) http://www.ipcc.ch/press_information/press_information.htm(accessed 10/06/10)
25
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “10.6.2 The Himalayan glaciers.” In Climate Change 2007:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability. M.L.Parry, et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/
ch10s10-6-2.html (accessed 07/06/10)
26
IPCC Secretariat. Scientific Academy to Conduct Independent Review of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change’s Processes and Procedures at Request of United Nations and IPCC. Press Release.
(Geneva, February 27, 2010) http://www.ipcc.ch/press_information/press_information.htm (accessed 10/06/10)
27
World Glacier Monitoring Service & United Nations Environment Programme. Global glacier changes: facts
and figures. WGMS (2008) http://www.grid.unep.ch/glaciers/ (accessed 10/06/10)
28
IPCC Secretariat. Review by Dutch Government Confirms IPCC’s Core Conclusions on Impacts of Climate
Change, Recommendations for Future Improvements Welcomed. IPCC. (Geneva, July 5, 2010) http://www.
ipcc.ch/ (accessed 06/07/10)
26
29
E.J. Rohling, et al. “High rates of sea-level rise during the last interglacial period.” Nature GeoScience 1
(2008): 38-42; S. Rahmstorf. “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise.” Science
315 (January 19, 2007): 368-370
30
G. Schmidt. Leakegate: a retraction. RealClimate.org (June 20, 2010) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/
archives/2010/06/leakegate-a-retraction/ (accessed 06/07/10)
31
House of Commons Science and Technology Committee. Eighth Report: The disclosure of climate data from
the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. Parliament of the United Kingdom (March 24,
2010). http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/38702.htm (accessed
07/06/10)
32
International Panel, University of East Anglia. Report of the International Panel set up by the University of East
Anglia to examine the research of the Climatic Research Unit. (Submitted to the University April 12, 2010)
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/SAP (accessed 07/06/10); M. Russell, et al.
The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review (July 2010) http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/
jul/07/findings-muir-russell-review (accessed 08/07/20); Penn State. Investigation of climate scientist at Penn
State complete. (July 1, 2010) http://live.psu.edu/story/47378 (accessed 08/07/10)
33
Report of the International Panel set up by the University of East Anglia to examine the research of the
Climatic Research Unit, p5
34
N-A. Mörner & G. Etiope “Carbon degassing from the lithosphere.” Global and Planetary Change 33, no.
1-2 (June 2002): 185-203; P.W. Boyd, et al. “A mesoscale phytoplankton bloom in the polar Southern Ocean
stimulated by iron fertilization.” Nature 407 (October 2000): 695-702
35
C. Le Quéré, et al. “Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide.” Nature Geoscience 2 (2009): 831 – 836
36
J. Wolfe. Volcanoes & Climate Change, NASA Earth Observatory (September 2000) http://eob.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Features/Volcano/ (accessed 03/06/10)
37
The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. Allison, et al. UNSW
Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney NSW. (2009) http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/ (accessed
01/06/10)
38
The ‘carbon cycle’ refers to the continuous process by which carbon is exchanged between living things
and their environment. Carbon dioxide is absorbed from the atmosphere by plants and converted to energy
through their use of sunlight. Carbon is then passed into the food chain and returned to the atmosphere by the
respiration and decay of animals and plants. The burning of fossil fuels also releases carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere.
39
A. Timmermann, et al. “The Roles of CO2 and Orbital Forcing in Driving Southern Hemispheric Temperature
Variations during the Last 21000 Yr”, Journal of Climate 22, no. 7 (April 2009): 1626-1640; N. Caillon, et al.
“Timing of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature Changes Across Termination III”, Science 299, no.
5613 (March 2003): 1728-1731;
40
D. Karoly. Submission to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. http://www.royalcommission.vic.
gov.au/Submissions/View-Submissions (accessed 01/06/10)
41
C. Lucas, et al. Bushfire Weather in Southeast Australia: Recent Trends and Projected Climate Change
Impacts, Bushfire CRC, Bureau of Meteorology & CSIRO. (2007) http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/
stories/bushfire/fullreport.pdf (accessed 06/06/10)
42
M. A. Krawchuk, et al. “Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire.” PLoS ONE 4,
no. 4 (2009): e5102. Note also that global warming and an increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
are predicted to lead to an increase in woody vegetation and changes in the mix of trees and shrubs, which,
when combined with less rainfall, may be making large parts of the landscape more fire-prone.
43
CSIRO. Climate Change in Australia. Technical Report 2007. CSIRO. (2007) http://www.csiro.au/resources/
Climate Institute I 27
Climate-Change-Technical-Report-2007.html (accessed 06/06/10)
44
K. Hennessy, et al. An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of
exceptional climatic events. Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO. Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra. (2008)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change (accessed 06/06/10)
45
D. Griggs. “Is global warming just a conspiracy between climate scientists to increase their funding?” Video
Q&A. ClimateWorks Australia. (2009) http://climatescientistsaustralia.org.au/science/faqs.html (accessed
02/06/10)
46
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption
and Vulnerability. M.L.Parry, et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,
USA, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html (accessed 07/06/10)
47
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption
and Vulnerability. M.L.Parry, et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,
USA, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html (accessed 07/06/10)
48
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption
and Vulnerability. M.L.Parry, et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,
USA, 2007). http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html (accessed 07/06/10)
49
Various scholarly works look at how natural climate changes have influenced the course of human history.
Some of the most readable and authoritative are those by renowned archaeologist and anthropologist Brian
Fagan, including The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations. (Bloomsbury
Press, NY, 2008); The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization. (Basic Books, NY, 2003); The Little
Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300–1850. (Basic Books, NY, 2000)
50
The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. Allison, et al. UNSW
Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney NSW. (2009) http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/ (accessed
01/06/10)
51
A. Bloom, et al. “Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Inhibits Nitrate Assimilation in Wheat and Arabidopsis.”
Science 328, no. 5980 (May 2010): 899 – 903; P. Högy, et al. “Effects of elevated CO2 on grain yield and
quality of wheat: results from a 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment.” Plant Biology 11, no. s1 (July
2009): 60-69.; S.P. Long, et al. “Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising
CO2 Concentrations.” Science 312, no. 5782 (June 2006): 1918 – 1921.
28
The Climate Institute
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Sydney NSW 2000
Tel 02 8239 6299
Fax 02 9283 8154
July 2010