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PLANNERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE AMS Annual Conference Phoenix, Arizona January 12, 2009 Scott Shuford, AICP Outline Update on Climate Change Handbook for Planners Climate Change and City Planners – General An Example – Economic Development Questions Climate Change Handbook Update NCDC scientist review complete Professional planner peer review complete via webportal developed by NEMAC Negotiations underway between UNCA and the American Planning Association to publish and distribute the handbook as part of a larger Planners Advisory Service document Release date is late summer 2009 Climate Change and Planners – General American Planning Association • 43,000 practicing planners and officials • 65% work for state and local governments • Two main offices – Washington, DC and Chicago, IL • 46 chapters • 19 divisions – planning specialty areas (transportation, urban design, tourism) • Professional certification program – American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP) Why does climate change matter to planners? Economic Development Environment, Natural Resources and Energy Housing and Community Development New Urbanism Regional and Intergovernmental Planning Resort and Tourism Planning Transportation Planning Urban Design and Preservation IPCC says: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is “very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” “Unequivocal” = 100% certain “Very likely” = 90% certain Climate change is certain Global Top 10 Warm Years Anomaly °C Anomaly °F 2005 0.60 1.08 1998 0.58 1.04 2002 0.56 1.01 2003 0.56 1.01 2007 0.55 0.99 2006 0.54 0.97 2004 0.53 0.96 2001 0.49 0.89 1997 0.46 0.83 1995 0.40 0.72 We are seeing climate change effects today Source: National Geographic; April 2008 Climate change will be both sudden and severe Every community will be affected There will be climate change “winners” and “losers” DEFINITIONS Climate Change Winner A community that is able and willing to physically, fiscally, safely and sustainably adapt to local, regional, national and global climate change effects . Climate Change Loser A community that does not, will not or cannot adapt to or mitigate climate change. Physical Adaptation Sea level rise, drought, wildfire frequency, heat waves, storm surge, wind damage and other consequences of climate change will either require or preclude adaptation in many communities Physical Adaptation Physical Adaptation Alligator River area – coastal NC Alligator River area – coastal NC Current view After 2 feet of sea level rise Graphics courtesy of The Nature Conservancy Physical Adaptation Andreas Feininger, 1954 Fiscal Adaptation Climate change effects will create fiscal challenges for many communities Fiscal Adaptation Hoover Dam Safety Adaptation Climate change creates a wide range of public safety impacts that communities will be forced to either address or consciously ignore Safety Adaptation Safety Adaptation Accept the risk and move on Million Dollar Highway – Silverton to Ouray, CO Sustainable Adaptation Sustainable adaptation can be considered another term for mitigation – adaptation that minimizes or mitigates climate change impacts by reducing the potential severity of the impacts Sustainable Adaptation Washington Nationals Stadium “Green Generation” lighting Brownfield site redevelopment Green roof over concession stand Transit links Bike valet service Recycling Priority parking for carpools & fuel-efficient cars Sand filters for seat cleaning water Washington Post image An Example - Economic Development Local Economic Effects Migration Migration People have always migrated because of climate Those with choice will migrate to communities that are climate change winners In-migration is a double-edged sword Desert Hot Springs, CA A likely climate change winner Out-migration is a double-edged sword Philadelphia, PA Development in 1990 A likely climate change winner 16 Regional Economic Effects Tourism Agriculture Temperature VA NH Average July High 88° 82° Average July Low 64° 56° Average Jan. High 42° 28° Average Jan. Low 22° 7° Cold weather tourist economies in jeopardy Image: Union of Concerned Scientists Effects on Agriculture Other Issues: Crop varietal specialization (+ & -) Crop change transition Erosion Market changes due to transportation costs Scale of farms Urban agriculture Sustainable practices Land use competition Wildfires (primarily forestry) Food preferences Source: Natural Resources Canada www.nrcan.gc.ca National Economic Effects Warehousing Transportation Warehouse uses once filled large areas of our cities Adaptive reuse of vacant warehouse space is now a common occurrence How did this happen? Just-in-time delivery Just-in-time delivery turned warehouses into lofts and highways into warehouses. Manufacturers and retailers ship only enough stock to meet immediate demand, eliminating the need for storage space and allowing an almost instantaneous response to price fluctuations. Centralizing production and externalizing warehousing onto the highways (and the environment), created greater efficiencies and lower prices. Today’s warehousing occurs on our highway network, not in buildings in our cities “Just-in-time delivery has been a disaster for city governments, national governments and the planet.” Clive Doucet Urban Meltdown Problems include: • Public subsidy for highway warehousing, adding maintenance and new construction costs • Reduced demand for more efficient, less-polluting rail service • Greater vulnerability to food, gasoline, and other shortages when supplies are interrupted • Larger vehicles compromise highway safety and clog city streets Climate change issues include: • Greater emissions = faster global warming • Weather-related delays in delivery = local vulnerabilities Transportation: Vulnerable to Climate Change Reagan National Airport Transportation: Confederation Bridge Global Economic Effects Transportation Trade Socio-Political Transportation: Opening of the Northwest and Northern Passages NASA image Agence France-Presse image Trade and Socio-Political: Cyclone Nargis Questions? PLANNERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE NCDC Presentation January 9, 2009 Scott Shuford, AICP