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University Course Module
Planning for Climate Change
Lecture 3
Methods and tools of
Climate change planning
LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Table of Contents
I.
Overview, learning objectives and notes to instructor ................................................................5
II.
Suggested reading assignments .................................................................................................6
III. Lecture Notes ............................................................................................................................7
A.
The planning process and climate change ......................................................................7
1.
2.
3.
B.
General models of planning .................................................................................. 9
Recommended procedures for climate change planning ................................... 10
Procedural challenges ......................................................................................... 13
Getting started: building support for adaptation ......................................................... 16
1.
2.
Engaging stakeholders, the public and elected officials ..................................... 17
Three principles of public engagement .............................................................. 18
C.
Analysing how the local climate will change ................................................................ 21
D.
Scoping potential impacts ........................................................................................... 23
1.
E.
Assessing risks, vulnerability and adaptive capacity ..................................................... 41
1.
2.
3.
4.
F.
Establishing planning principles .......................................................................... 53
Identifying potential adaptation and mitigation measures ................................ 54
Criteria for evaluation and decision making ....................................................... 59
Implementing and Monitoring Adaptation Plans ......................................................... 63
1.
H.
Methods of impact assessment .......................................................................... 42
The risk analysis tool ........................................................................................... 44
Examples of impact studies ................................................................................ 45
Participatory, integrated assessments ............................................................... 51
Evaluating adaptation options and developing a plan .................................................. 53
1.
2.
3.
G.
Sector impact analysis ........................................................................................ 38
Planning Tools for Climate Change Adaptation .................................................. 64
CIP Policy on Climate Change ...................................................................................... 66
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Table of Contents (continued)
IV. Exercises and instructional activities ........................................................................................ 69
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
V.
Exercise 1 (Voices from the field, a video on impacts) ....................................... 69
Exercise 2 (Getting familiar with adaptation resources) .................................... 69
Exercise 3 (Climate change impacts in a community) ........................................ 69
Exercise 4 (Identifying key impacts by region) ................................................... 70
Exercise 5 (Identifying potential benefits) .......................................................... 71
Exercise 6 (How will communities be impacted?) .............................................. 71
Exercise 7 (Identifying adaptation strategies) .................................................... 71
Exercise 8 (Planning tools for adaptation) .......................................................... 73
Exercise 9 (Overcoming challenges and barriers) ............................................... 74
Exercise 10 (Principles for effective adaptation planning) ................................. 74
Exercise 11 (Mitigation and adaptation responses) ........................................... 74
Exercise 12 (Examples of mal-adaption) ............................................................. 75
Exercise 13 (Identifying adaptation options) ...................................................... 75
Exercise 14 (Assessing adaptation options) ........................................................ 75
Suggestions for in-depth exploration ....................................................................................... 77
1.
In Depth Exploration Topic 1 (Using PCIC’s regional analysis tool) .................... 77
VI. References .............................................................................................................................. 85
VII. End notes ................................................................................................................................ 88
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List of figures and tables
Figure 1
ICLEI's five milestones of mitigation planning ..................................................................... 10
Figure 2
CIP's six steps of adaptation planning. ................................................................................ 11
Figure 3
Main steps of framework for combined mitigation/adaptation ......................................... 12
Figure 4
Water resource as a cross cutting climate change impact .................................................. 24
Figure 5
Model framework for adaptive capacity analysis................................................................ 43
Figure 6
Sample risk evaluation matrix. ............................................................................................ 44
Figure 7
Impact map showing three possible coastal erosion scenarios. ......................................... 46
Figure 8
Elements of a risk based analysis for urban heat island research. ...................................... 47
Figure 9
Composition of urban heat island risk mapping layers ....................................................... 48
Figure 10
Depiction of disciplines needed to complete urban heat island study. .............................. 49
Figure 11
Components of integrated assessments ............................................................................ 51
Figure 12
Framework of Okanagan region, BC integrated assessment .............................................. 52
Table 1
Some observed impacts of changing climate. ..................................................................... 25
Table 2
Potential local impacts from local climate changes in Toronto. ......................................... 36
Table 3
Initial scoping: a sample of sectors and potential impacts. ................................................ 38
Table 4
Ten principles of effective adaptation planning .................................................................. 53
Table 5
A selection of notable mitigation projects of Canadian municipalities. .............................. 55
Table 6
Selected adaptation options for Toronto (by sector). ......................................................... 56
Table 7
Suggested criteria for evaluating climate change responses .............................................. 62
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Lecture 3 Methods and tools of climate change planning
I.
Overview, learning objectives and notes to instructor
In Lecture 1, it was explained how global warming is expected to lead to changes in local climates,
including changes in average weather conditions, in the frequency and severity of extremes, in the range
of variability and in the state of water cycles, snow and ice cover, coasts and oceans. Lecture 2 examined
constraints and drivers of climate policy and principles and theories guiding policy development.
In this third and final Lecture, the focus is on the planners’ response, specifically the methods and tools
planners can and should use to help protect the climate and increase their community’s resilience. Note
that the material in this Lecture spans two sessions or class periods. Sections A to D of the Lecture are
intended for the first session. The rest of the Lecture would be covered in a second session.
With the exception of Section A, the materials in this Lecture are structured following the model for
adaptation planning recommended by the Canadian Institute of Planners (CIP). See Figure 2. First,
however, the introductory Section A examines theoretical foundations underlying the processes by which
all planning occurs. Alternative frameworks for climate change plan making are set forth and CIP’s
adaptation model is introduced. Some important procedural challenges are then briefly explored,
including how to ‘mainstream’ climate change considerations within municipal decision making.
Section B examines the “Getting Started” activities, or Step 1, in CIP’s framework. These are the methods
for building public and official support for climate protection plans and measures.
Section C presents methods to analyse how the climate will change in the local area. A key concern in that
regard is how to establish and maintain strong relationships between planners and those persons with
local knowledge of climate conditions, including but not limited to scientists and modellers.
The next section, Section D, sets forth in greater detail the range of possible impacts, direct and indirect,
likely to affect various regions of Canada. Planners will need to develop the skill to scope potential
impacts across many sectors in an orderly and comprehensive manner. In this area, the materials borrow
heavily from the work of Natural Resources Canada (Lemmen, Warren et al. 2008).
Having listed expected impacts, planners need to assess and prioritise the associated risks. How would a
decline in snow cover affect winter resort communities in BC? Who would be most at risk as coastal
erosion rates in Atlantic Canada increase? The answers require assessments of vulnerability and adaptive
capacity of communities. Some of the methods for such assessments are explored in Section E.
Section F then turns to the critical question of evaluating options and developing a plan. It also sets forth
some criteria for evaluation of proposed adaption plans and measures.
The following section, Section G, considers the statutory and other planning tools available for
implementation and monitoring of plans. This Section completes the review of CIP’s model framework.
The final section, Section H, presents excerpts from CIP’s Policy on Climate Change, inviting students to
consider their future professional and ethical obligations as planners.
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II.
Suggested reading assignments
On nature and scoping of impacts
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Lemmen, DS & FJ Waren (eds.) (2004). Climate change impacts and adaptation: a
Canadian perspective. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
-
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). From Impacts to
Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada:
Government of Canada.
On methods of impact assessment
-
Cohen, SJ (1997). “Scientist–stakeholder collaboration in integrated assessment of climate
change: lessons from a case study of Northwest Canada.” Environmental Modeling and
Assessment 2(4): 281-293.
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Rotmans, J (1998). “Methods for IA: The challenges and opportunities ahead.”
Environmental Modeling and Assessment 3(3): 155-179.
On vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessments
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Smit, B & J Wandel (2006). “Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability.” Global
Environmental Change 16(3): 282-292.
On adaptation practices:
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Clean Air Partnership (CAP) (2007). Cities Preparing for Climate Change, A Study of Six
Urban Regions. Toronto: The Clean Air Partnership.
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Bizikova, L, T Neale & I Burton (2008). Canadian Communities’ Guidebook for Adaptation to
Climate Change-Including an Approach to Generate Mitigation Co-Benefits in the Context of
Sustainable Development (1st ed.) Vancouver: Environment Canada and University of British
Columbia.
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Toronto Environment Office (TEO) (2008). Ahead of the storm… preparing Toronto for cliate
change—development of a climate change adaptation strategy.” Toronto: TEO.
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III.
Lecture Notes
A.
The planning process and climate change
In this Section, students are asked to consider, and critically evaluate, the process through which climate
change plans are prepared and mitigation and adaptation measures implemented. Of course, climate
planning takes place within the existing, broader framework of planning that functions at various scales
and addresses multiple problems and goals. Thus, a key objective here is to examine how climate planning
activities may best be integrated (‘mainstreamed’) within existing processes, functions and projects.
The analysis begins with a brief overview of general planning theories that have shaped contemporary
planning processes. This is followed by an examination of various models recommended by CIP and others
for climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Students should be urged to spot the points of
friction and/or synergy between these recommended climate planning approaches and the general
planning frameworks and processes. Key themes and questions to guide the discussion are:

no one planning model may be effective and appropriate in all situations;

the nature of the specific problem (e.g., the extent of uncertainty involved) and the
surrounding social context (i.e., extent of disagreement as to planning goals and means)
may make some models or part of models more or less appropriate and effective. For
instance, communicative and advocacy planning frameworks that focus on deliberation and
participation may be useful in building long term resilience. Incremental approaches may
be more appropriate in situations where means are new and untested. Design-focused
models may inspire some leading communities toward a low carbon future;

there is a close connection between process and planning theory. Students should be able
to connect the various procedural concerns to underlying dilemmas of contemporary
planning theories;

how should the adequacy of the planning process be judged? Christensen (1985) suggests
the following criteria: its predictability, equity, accountability, efficiency and effectiveness.
Are there other considerations?

the weaknesses of various planning models have been well described in the literature and
should inform the analysis (e.g., presumptions about problem and goal definitions in the
rational comprehensive model, lack of unified vision in the more process-focused models);

Does uncertainty give rise to a risk of premature programming or premature consensus in
the planning response?

What is the proper role of the climate change planner: visionary, technocrat, mediator,
advocate for future generations, defenders of science, other?
Later in the lesson several key procedural concerns of climate planning are separately addressed. They
include the need for extended time horizons in plans, ways to ensure more flexible and reversible
outcomes and options for ‘mainstreaming’ climate change considerations.
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Teaching objectives
IDENTIFY THOSE PLANNING PROCESSES WHERE DECISIONS RELEVANT TO CLIMATE CHANGE ARE BEING MADE
EVALUATE HOW MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MAY BE PURSUED USING EACH OF THOSE PROCESSES
CONSIDER HOW TO TAILOR THOSE PROCESSES TO NATURE OF THE PROBLEM, SOCIAL CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ARE THOSE PROCESSES HINDERING/PROMOTING CLIMATE PROTECTION AND RESILIENCE?
PROPOSE WAYS TO REFORM PLANNING PROCESSES FOR MORE EFFECTIVE CLIMATE PLANNING
DETERMINE WAYS TO INTEGRATE CLIMATE GOALS WITHIN BROADER PLANNING AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
DISCUSS THE ROLE OF A PLANNER (VISIONARY, TECHNOCRAT, MEDIATOR, CONSENSUS BUILDER, ADVOCATE?)
Key references
Scholarship on contemporary planning theory, on sustainable development as a new planning paradigm as well
as on planning for uncertainty:

Breheny, M (1996). "Centrists, Decentrists and Compromiers: Views on the Future of Urban
Form,"in The Compact City: A Sustainable urban Form? M Jenks, E Burton and K Williams (eds.)
London: E & FN Spon.

Keys, P (1987). "Planners, Uncertainties and Methodologies." Public Policy and Administration 2(3
): 23-34.

Levin, K, S Bernstein, B Cashore & G Auld (2007). "Playing It Forward: Path Dependency,
Progressive Incrementalism, and the 'Super Wicked' Problem of Global Climate Change." Paper
prepared for the International Studies Association Convention.

Berke, PR (2002). "Does Sustainable Development Offer a New Direction for Planning? Challenges
for the Twenty-First Century." Journal of Planning Literature 17(1): 21-36.

Næss, P (1994). "Normative Planning Theory and Sustainable Development." Scandinavian Housing
and Planning Research 11(3): 145 - 67.

Sanne, C (2002). "Planning with a Ceiling," in Reshaping Regional Planning: A Northern Perspective,
F Snickars, B Olerup & LO Persson (eds). Burlington, VT: Ashgate.

Wachs, M (2001). "Forecasting Versus Envisioning: a New Window on the Future." Journal of the
American Planning Association 67(4): 367 - 72.
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1.
General models of planning
Planning theorists have described various models of planning processes and practice. Some of the most
prominent and pertinent theoretical streams are set forth below:

Classic planning model
The planner devises a comprehensive large-scale vision of the optimal form of a city. The vision is to be
implemented largely through public interventions relying heavily on the regulatory power of the state.
Early modern examples include Howard's Garden City, Burnham’s Chicago Plan, Le Corbusier's Radiant
City, Wright’s Broadacre City. This approach floundered in part due to the economic and political system
in North America, where the influence of planners and government in land development is limited.

Rational comprehensive planning
In response to the increasing complexity of urban problems and a breakdown on consensus about
development, planning became rationalized and much more technical. Under this model, planning
problems are first to be defined and a goal articulated. The merits of various means to solve the problem
are then evaluated. A preferred solution is selected in consultation with experts and other interested
parties and then implemented and monitored. This so-called synoptic approach is still prevalent today,
especially in certain domains such as transportation, environmental impact assessments and planning for
large urban infrastructures. Critics have assailed the lack of grander visions and the fact that the process
can easily by rent asunder by atomized narrow interests.

Advocacy, communicative and radical planning
Beginning in the 1960s, there is a marked “decline of holistic, visionary plans” (Berke 2002, 23) and a
decline of public trust in science and rationalized solutions. Planning begins to focus more on participation
and process issues deemed essential to legitimize plans by determining the true public interest and
addressing social inequality. Communicative planning stresses planners’ role as communicators,
consensus builders, mediators, and intermediaries. “Rather than providing technical leadership, the
planners are experiential learners through listening to subjective statements, providing information to
participants to ensure informed deliberation, and fostering convergence while ensuring no interest
dominates.” (Berke 2001, 24). Critics have charged that an over-emphasis on process has led to reactive
and opposition-focused planning with no greater vision and an erosion of community-wide consensus.

Incrementalist approaches (‘muddling through’)
This model relies on trial and error to discover what works. Rather than attempting to describe all
consequences of a planned action, something is tried and the consequences are monitored to learn more
about the conditions and possible future adjustments. This reduces uncertainty over time. Examples may
include the extensive use of periodic slight amendments to zoning to curb proliferation of certain uses or
the use of variances to make slight adjustments. The general development approach, to the extent one
exists, emerges from the amalgam of varied, at-best-loosely-coordinated, activities.
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
Design-focused, anti-sprawl planning
Beginning in the 1980s, spearheaded by North American planners, the new urbanism movement urged
design-centered, denser and more mixed-use urban development. This and related sprawl-control
approaches, such as transit oriented development, tend to focus on livability and human scaled urban
forms (Calthorpe 1993). Charrettes are promoted as a way to engage the public and develop a community
vision. Critics charge that resulting developments have catered mostly to a narrow socio-economic elite
and have been ineffective in containing sprawl or changing car oriented lifestyles.
2.
Recommended procedures for climate change planning
There are various approaches that have been recommended for mitigation planning (i.e., GHG emission
reductions and uptake) at the municipal level. Perhaps the best know is the one promulgated by ICLEI
Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI). ICLEI is an international, voluntary association of local
governments who have made a commitment to sustainable development. In Canada, the Federation of
Canadian Municipalities (FCM), through its Partners for Climate Protection (PCP) program, promotes
ICLEI’s approach. Dozens of communities across the country participate. The ICLEI approach consists of
five milestones, described in Figure 1 belowi.
Figure 1
ICLEI's five milestones of mitigation planning.
Source: (ICLEI and FCM) (ICLEI 2008)
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Just as for mitigation, several model planning frameworks are been promulgated for adaptation activities.
The approach adopted in these materials and which provides the structure for the rest of this Lecture is
that of the Canadian Institute of Planners (CIP). CIP recommends a six step process for adaptation
planning. See Figure 2. It is an iterative approach, where each step builds upon the results of the prior
steps. Note, however, that many of the activities, for example building public awareness, are very likely to
be on-going throghout the entire planning processii.
Figure 2 CIP's six steps of adaptation planning.
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Interestingly, some models exist that combine both mitigation and adaptation activities within a larger
sustainability planning program (i.e., Sustainability, Adaptation and Mitigation or SAM projects). For
instance, Bizikova et al. 2008, for Environment Canada, recommend the following framework for so-called
SAM activities:
Figure 3 Main steps of a framework for combined mitigation, adaptation
measures within a sustainability agenda. Source (Bizikova, Neale
et al. 2008).
There are also models that purport to apply at scales other than regional and municipal planning. For
example, the Federal/Provincial/Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment
published in 2003 voluntary guidelines for incorporating climate change considerations into project level
analyses. See Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment (2003).
Finally, it should be noted that there are normative models of climate planning (not climate change per
se) developed over the past several decades by urban climatologists. For instance, Bitan (1988) proposed
a methodology to incorporate climate considerations, including a process for the monitoring the climate
of the region, into planning at the regional level, the settlement scale and for individual buildings.
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A review of these models leads to the following observations:

The mitigation approaches tend to be highly goal oriented. Once the GHG reduction target
is set, it largely drives the contents of the responsive action plan;

The adaptation models tend to be somewhat vague on specific goals or principles of
adaptation (e.g., adaptation to what, how and by whom?). This presumably would be
specified in latter phases as a plan takes shape;

Mitigation approaches seem to rely heavily on the technical expertise and data used to
create the GHG inventory;

Adaptation models as well as the combined models seem to place more emphasis on
generation of data about community vulnerability and capacity, in large part with
involvement of community and stakeholders;

Many of the models envision the generation of separate or stand alone plans, raising
concerns about how to incorporate this additional plan within other existing local plans;

Adaptation models are highly varied in part due to the different scales and modes of action
involved in building resilience.
In the next section of the Lecture, Section C, and in those that follow it, each of CIP’s six steps to
adaptation planning will be examined in more detail. CIP’s process model thus becomes the structuring
element for the rest of the Lecture. Before that, however, some procedural concerns of climate change
planning are considered in more detail.
3.
Procedural challenges
a)
Promoting resilience
As explained in Lecture 2, one of the primary objectives of adaptation is to increase the resilience and
general adaptive capacity of a community. That requires a focus not only on brick and mortar projects
responding to known risks, but also building up community awareness, education and resources to enable
effective responses to a wider range of uncertain future conditions and events. Planning processes that
fully engage citizens, establishing enduring channels for dissemination of information and socialization of
knowledge, are considered preferable to those that are more top-down or technocratic.
Resilience also requires flexibility and reversibility in plan making and urban development. Having a
variety of planning processes and tools suitable in different circumstances may be useful, including
effective means to change, alter or even abandon projects and plans relatively quickly. Communities may
also want to adopt planning processes that accommodate phasing of projects and plans rather than
facilitating large, all-at-once projects. A once-every-15-year planning cycle may prove inadequate.
Cities may also want to adopt measures that are reflexive and promote self-learning. This may require
much more extensive use of performance metrics and plan monitoring. Some processes may foment
more lasting connections between stakeholders, scientists and decision makers. Other methods may
promote the generation and dissemination of climate change and impacts information. Some approaches
may involve more flexible decision making mechanisms that change based on lessons learned from past
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failures and successes. By contrast, inflexible, top-down approach to plan making and implementation
may stifle community led action.
b)
Mainstreaming climate change
It should be evident to the students that there are a large number of decision making processes occurring
on a regular basis in every city that are relevant to climate change adaptation and mitigation. They
include a lot more than making land use master plans, applying zoning requirements and other traditional
activities of planners. They include for example:
-
Budgeting process for city department and capital projects;
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Design, construction, administration and maintenance of roads and other infrastructure
-
Building safety inspections;
-
Regulation of traffic and parking;
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Assessment and collection of local taxes and user fees;
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Maintenance and administration of parks, open spaces and public trees;
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Operation of public transit fleets.
In addition to these are activities related to running the city itself: leasing and operation of public
buildings and vehicles, employment and supervision of department staff and much more.
Thus, a very important objective of policy makers and public administrators is to ensure climate change is
incorporated in every one of these and other activities and plans of local government. This is referred to
as ‘mainstreaming’ adaptation thinking. One adaptation study, conducted for the City of Toronto,
illustrates the many plans and activities there into which climate change is to be mainstreamed. The
authors of the report concluded that:
To ensure that climate change considerations are incorporated into planning, programs and
budgets, we need to include explicit mention of the challenge of climate change in
overarching City policies and plans. A description of the challenges posed by climate change
for the city, and goals for both mitigation and adaptation should be incorporated into
relevant plans, strategies and programs.
RECOMMENDED ACTION #20: INCLUDE CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS AND EXPLICIT GOALS FOR
ADAPTATION IN PLANS, PROGRAMS, STRATEGIES AND ASSESSMENT PROCEDURES, INCLUDING:












TORONTO’S OFFICIAL PLAN
WET WEATHER FLOW MASTER PLAN
TRANSIT CITY PLAN
PARKS, FORESTRY AND RECREATION STRATEGIC PLAN (Our Common Grounds)
URBAN FOREST MANAGEMENT PLAN
EMERGENCY PLAN
HOT WEATHER RESPONSE PLAN
GREEN DEVELOPMENT STANDARD
BETTER BUILDINGS PARTNERSHIP – EXISTING BUILDINGS and NEW
CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMS
GREEN ECONOMIC SECTOR DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
TORONTO HYDRO’S PLANS AND STRATEGIES
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


DEEP LAKEWATER COOLING
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS OF NEW CAPITAL PROJECTS
LONG TERM FISCAL PLAN.”
In short, as climate change will affect nearly all aspects of life in Canadian communities, planners can play
a key role by ‘walking the talk’ of climate preparedness mainstreaming.
However, how to best accomplish this mainstreaming can be a complex matter. How should municipal
government structures be organized? If responsibilities are re-structured so as to explicitly require climate
change considerations across all relevant city departments, how can horizontal integration be ensured?
How will plans that require across-sector coordination be managed without a central climate change
champion? If, alternatively, a separate climate change directorate is created and charged with
coordinating activities, there may be a risk that climate change considerations will be pigeonholed further
away from day-to-day decision-making in the city’s line departments.
In Toronto, the adaptation planners acknowledged that “[g]etting organized to reduce the impacts
will require:

Ongoing leadership from City Council and champions among senior managers;

Assessing and allocating needed staff and budgetary resources;

Enhancing and empowering the citywide Adaptation Steering Group;

Creating issue-based adaptation working groups (with practitioners and climate researchers);

Increasing the awareness and adaptation capacity of City staff (e.g., via ‘in reach’ activities such
as webinars, workshops, etc.);

Mobilization of existing local climate change and adaptation expertise;

Collaboration with regional, national and international adaptation networks and programs.”
c)
Extending the time horizons of plans
It is common for municipal plans in Canada to guide city development only 10 to 15 years into the future,
after which time another, subsequent plan would be prepared and adopted. The nature of the climate
change challenge, with serious consequences decades into the future, requires a much longer analysis
and a plan for longer term action.
In this regard, the Imagine Calgary planning effort is a national role model. In that process, Calgary’s
planners and citizens engaged in a series of workshops to prepare a vision of the city’s development in the
course of the next 100 years.
More information may be obtained at: http://www.imaginecalgary.ca/project.php.
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B.
Getting started: building support for adaptation
Beginning with this section, and continuing in the next five, the materials follow the structure of CIP’s sixstep adaptation planning model. Refer to Figure 2 above. Of course, every community or region
undertaking adaptation planning will likely take their own unique approach. No one approach is
appropriate or effective for every type and scale of impact. Indeed, there is considerable variety and
much overlapiii in the adaptation planning activity across Canada (See Appendix B).
CIP’s recommended approach touches on the most important considerations and is a useful guide for
planners working in most jurisdictions. Note that the steps are not necessarily consecutive but rather a
map of the key areas of consideration that all planning processes should include. The first time a region
undertakes adaptation planning the steps may be followed consecutively, but in later iterations and as
the plan is monitored and revised based on new learning and information, the process will be iterative.
It also bears restating what adapting to climate change is not – it is not about making communities
“climate proof”. It is unrealistic to assume that one can completely remove community vulnerability to
climate change. Furthermore, while preparing an adaptation plan is certainly a goal for increasing climate
resilience, it is not the end goal (i.e., planners don’t write the plan and consider themselves done). Rather
than making communities climate proof, preparing for climate change is about increasing resilience to
climate change impacts. While the discussion is most often focused on the problems of climate change,
resilient communities look for and take advantage of the opportunities as well.
Part of getting started is to become familiar with the key resources available. Appendix A provides an
extensive list of key resources for planners undertaking adaptation activities. Appendix B includes a
summary and references to adaptation plans and projects across the country. Students should develop a
good understanding of what is happening in adaptation planning and where to learn more about it.
A recommended good practice to adopt as planners proceed through the six steps is to document the
information used and developed at each step of the process. This is important because the process
involves a lot of technical data and judgment and these can be lost as staff or participants change over
time. Without a good record, planners may end up trying to assess success or decide on next steps
without good information on why certain prior actions and decision were taken.
To provide further guidance on what the process of adaptation might look like in a big city and smaller
community context, the adaptation planning experiences of Toronto and the cities of Kimberly and
Elkford, B.C., are referenced in these materials as case examples. Additional information and resources for
those two cases may be found at:

TEO (2008), Ahead of the Storm…Preparing Toronto for Climate Change:
Development of a climate adaptation strategy”, Toronto Environment Office.
http://www.toronto.ca/teo/adaptation.htm;

The City of Kimberley and District of Elkford, B.C., Climate Change Adaptation
Resource Kit, http://cbtadaptation.squarespace.com/this-resource-kit/.
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1.
Engaging stakeholders, the public and elected officials
The process of adaptation planning requires considerable commitment from local elected officials and
staff. Adaptation does not end with the plan but rather entails a commitment to a comprehensive and
ongoing process, with staff and budget resources and monitor. Often, a council resolution may be
necessary to secure budget and staff resources. For example, in the case of Toronto, it was determined
that getting organized to reduce climate impacts will require:

Ongoing leadership from City Council and champions among senior managers;

Assessing and allocating needed staff and budgetary resources;

Enhancing and empowering the citywide Adaptation Steering Group;

Creating issue-based adaptation working groups (with practitioners and climate researchers);

Increasing the awareness and adaptation capacity of City staff (e.g., via ‘in reach’ activities such
as webinars, workshops, etc.);

Mobilization of existing local climate change and adaptation expertise;

Collaboration with regional, national and international adaptation networks and programs.”
At Kimberley & Elkford, the towns decided to establish a local climate change planning coordinator, to
help identify outcomes and objectives, develop a work plan and manage information.
To make all these activities possible, broad public support for adaptation is essential. After all, elected
decision-makers are accountable to their constituents. They rely on their staff to ensure that measures
have been used to inform and, where appropriate, engage the community prior to making decisions.
Almost every local government planner has experience in community engagement. Many have attended,
or given, workshops solely on best practices associated with communications and consultation. Some
local governments have their own code of principles or protocols that must be used.
Planners understand that effective outreach will play a significant role in building and maintaining support
for climate change initiatives and actions.
There is no such thing as a perfect community engagement process, but there are general principles and
practices that can contribute to success. A climate change strategy is the same as any other local
government activity that involves community engagement.
If a planner is ‘starting from zero’, building awareness and buy-in about the need for climate change
adaptation will be a very important step. Awareness often begins via a ‘white paper’ that lays out the key
issues, which is then used to create dialogue among key stakeholders, usually including representatives
from all municipal departments, industry and business and community leaders.
Globally, among the cities that have been early leaders in climate change planning, most have had four
things in common:

Individuals in leadership positions that are passionately concerned about climate change –
elected officials or senior administrators;
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING

Recent damaging weather events or extreme risk to weather events;

Media awareness, interest and coverage; and

Access to climate scientists who are interested in working with local governments.
Because the implications for climate change adaptation touch all aspects of a community and
responsibility for action is likely to be dispersed, it is vital that the public, business and other stakeholder
groups are engaged appropriately throughout the planning process.
Every jurisdiction will have its own unique approach to stakeholder engagement. Common steps include
identifying all the key stakeholders, grouping them, and determining what level of engagement /
communication is appropriate. Project stakeholder groups are often formed to serve as a key reference
group for reviewing planning progress at key milestones.
In the recent Toronto study, the planners considered various methods to develop and implement a public
and stakeholder awareness and engagement strategy, including:

Website development;

Public meetings on impacts and proposed adaptation strategies as they develop;

Support for community groups to take action to reduce climate change impacts on their
neighbourhoods;

Working with organizations that support vulnerable people to make and implement plans that
reduce their risks to climate impacts;

Identifying and promoting actions that households and community organizations can do to reduce
vulnerability to climate change;

Working with local business leaders and associations to discuss impacts, strategies and
possibilities for long-term cooperation on adaptation.
In the climate change planning effort that took place in Kimberley and Elkford, BC, public engagement
activities included establishing a local steering committee and selecting representatives for the diversity
of community views. Representatives from city departments also were given a presence on the
adaptation planning committee.
2.
Three principles of public engagement
Students should consider how various standards and practices for engaging stakeholders and the public
may be applied in climate change planning processes. In the text below, three principles are discussed,
along with good practices and comments specific to climate change.
General Principle 1: The process must be open, inclusive and transparent.
Good Practice: A consultation plan should be presented to decision-makers before the process begins.
This includes scope, time frame, budget, milestones and decision-points.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Comments Specific to Climate Change:


Climate change science is technical, as are some measures of mitigation and adaptation.
There should be recognition in designing the process that there is a legitimate role for experts in
developing and recommending policy options. The knowledge and advice of these experts should
be provided in a public setting, so it is clear how they have influenced outcomes.
General Principle 2: Information must be reliable, widely shared and easy to understand.
Good Practice: All available conventional and new media should be used. Use plain language and avoid
jargon.
Comments Specific to Climate Change










Climate change science uses an abundance of terms that are unfamiliar to the majority of people.
It is essential to express information about climate change as simply and as visually as possible.
Describe and illustrate changes that have already been observed regionally and locally.
Draw on the observations and experience of people who have lived in the area for a long time.
Quote them in communications’ materials. Reference weather events where the consequences
were widely experienced (e.g., ice storm in Central Canada, wind storm in Vancouver’s Stanley
Park).
Describe and illustrate changes that are expected regionally and locally.
Describe potential local consequences of climate change. Avoid overstating risks or likely impacts.
Remember to consider new opportunities.
Draw on learning and experience from the community.
Work with natural allies to help distribute and communicate climate change information.
These include environmental organizations, horticultural groups and educators.
General Principle 3: Affected and interested parties should be provided with a variety of opportunities to
participate.
Good Practices: Identify the different types of community interests and stakeholders, and their preferred
ways of engagement, at each phase of the process. Organize events at a scale where people can talk with
each other. Use facilitators and enablers, particularly if large numbers of people are involved. Use experts
appropriately. The more complex the subject, the more technical, professional or academic expertise may
be needed. Summarize the key findings and themes after each event. Ensure these are publicly available.
Properly record and document engagement activities so it is clearly evident who has been involved and
how.
Comments Specific to Climate Change

Effective engagement processes take time and resources, regardless of the subject matter.
Because climate change is a relatively new and complex subject for many people, the process
should incorporate as many opportunities for learning as possible.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING






Make a deliberate effort to personally contact people who already are committed to
environmental and sustainability issues.
Engage others in local government to act as resources in the community engagement process —
staff who work in environmental protection, wastewater management, water supply, emergency
management, fire and police, arborists. This “hands on” experience and perspective always
enriches a planning process.
Do not overlook former elected officials, or former senior administrators, who have a passion or
particular knowledge of the subject.
Make and maintain personal contact with opinion leaders within key stakeholder groups. In
Aboriginal communities, seek out elders for conversations.
Draw on local and regional resources, including educators, researchers and professionals who
specialize in climate science. They are knowledgeable about regional impacts, the confidence with
which projections of future change are made, and sources of additional information. Invite their
participation and presentation at some events. Collaborate with these individuals ahead of
meetings and events to make sure they understand the make-up of the audience, and how their
technical knowledge can best be conveyed.
Locate activities physically in the areas of potential impacts. (e.g., walking tour of a dyke
threatened by sea level rise, a tour of areas devastated by infestations resulting from warming
winters, an open house in a parking lot on a summer day).
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
C.
Analysing how the local climate will change
As shown in Lecture 1, scientific knowledge and data plays a critical role in our understanding of the
climate system and in making projections about how it will change in the future. For planners, knowing
the basic principles of climate science and being able to locate, comprehend and synthesize scientific
information are critical skills. Also, when deliberating on, or recommending, particular actions, planners
must be able to explain to the public, stakeholders and public officials the scientific basis, and the
strength and weaknesses of scientific claims, supporting such actions.
At a minimum, scientific literacy for planners should encompass the following:
-
General understanding of the theory of climate change (e.g., components of climate
system, forms of radiative forcing, the greenhouse gas effect);
-
Understanding of the range of projected changes in the regional climate;
-
Awareness of the sources and nature of uncertainties and gaps in knowledge;
-
Familiarity with scientific methods used to monitor and project climate change and its
impacts and the key sources of scientific data on climate change;
-
Knowledge of the major sources of GHG emissions in human settlements and how the built
environment can alter exposures and vulnerability to climate stress.
Of course, having perfect knowledge of climate science and excellent argumentation skills is no guarantee
that a planner will succeed in producing effective plans and shaping more responsive and responsible
climate policies. Some of the political challenges involved in applying scientific data to policy making, and
other drivers and constraints of climate policy, were examined in Lecture 2.
Other forms of knowledge, beyond science, are also critical. In some cases, historical events can give a
good picture of the range and variability of local climates. Previous extreme events, such as heat waves or
floods, viewed against climate projections can provide an indication of what could be normal occurrences
in the future, and therefore helpful adaptation planning.
An important source of information that is often neglected is the knowledge possessed by local residents.
Worldwide, over a period of millennia, humankind has responded to catastrophic weather events and
changing climatic conditions. Although traditional knowledge of these events may be sparse, and in some
cases recorded orally and subjective, it can be very informative. It has the advantage of being locally and
regionally specific and comprehensive. It may range from specific weather parameters to local
vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it can help to assess the plausibility of scientific
findings. Making efforts to incorporate that knowledge into proposals can help build support for action.
Finally, it supports learning and provides hints for adequate action.
In Lecture 1, the nature and extent of uncertainty and gaps in climate knowledge were examined. In this
regard, planners must bear in mind that science will never give exact or certain forecasts of future
climates. Moreover, scientific uncertainty about climate is only one of the dimensions of uncertainty that
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
affects planning. For example, there is also uncertainty in population and economic development
projections. And, there may be considerable process uncertainty in planning itself, arising from
disagreement about values and goals or about the means to achieve them. It is said that uncertainty, and
the attempt to control it, lies at the heart of what it means to plan. Planners must get used to it. It would
be wrong to conclude that no action on adaptation should be taken because of uncertainty. We consider
some criteria for decision making under conditions of uncertainty later in this Lecture.
The following steps are recommended when attempting to analyze how local climate will change:



Determine what is the current local climate and how it is changing already
Seek out local knowledge and historical climate observations (including from Aboriginal
communities and accounts of recent extreme weather events;
Obtain future climate projections for the region.
This last step may require establishing close and permanent working relationships with climate scientists
as well as forums for engaging a variety of stakeholders in discussions about the relevance and legitimacy
of climate projections.
The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) has published a Regional Analysis Tool that can be accessed
by planners to obtain climate change projections for a region of Canada. Notes on using this tool are
found in In-Depth Exploration Topic 1.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
D.
Scoping potential impacts
Once information about future local climate change is in hand (including the most up to date scientific
projections) much additional research and analysis remains to be done. Temperature, precipitation and
other climate parameters need to be translated into more practical information of use to planners. We
need to know the impacts, direct and indirect, of climate change on myriad social, environmental and
biophysical systems.
For instance, suppose snow cover for Southern British Columbia is expected to drop steeply in the coming
decades. What does that mean for the water flows into the river valleys come springtime? Will the stream
flows fall below the levels needed for future agriculture and urban uses? At what times of the year will
stream levels reach critically low levels? How will industrial and agricultural concerns respond to possible
water scarcity? Consider a climate projection that indicates higher frequency and severity of storms,
higher sea levels and changing snow cover for the New Brunswick coast. What will that mean for the rate
of erosion along a particular shore? How many buildings will be threatened? Will tourism and recreational
uses be affected and if so, how? Will access to the shore by the public be cut off by the rising waters?
Identifying or scoping all impacts often requires a multi-disciplinary effort and collaboration from
scientists, other professionals, stakeholders and members of affected communities. After all, the nature
and extent of impacts, their cause and effects, depend not only on the physical attributes of the particular
phenomena, but also on the sensitivity, vulnerability and response capacity of the system affected (recall
the section on concepts of adaptation in Lecture 2).
Impacts research and analysis must be location-specific and well integrated, considering the particular
contexts and trends in each area across multiple sectors. In addition to climate data, demographic, land
use, economic, political and other types of data inputs will be necessary. Planners can and do play a
critical role, at times a leading role, in such analyses.
One may say an impact analysis is like pealing a large onion. At the outer layer, there are the direct and
immediate climatic impacts of a warmer globe (e.g., rising local temperature or more rain in winter).
Those impacts in turn affect aspects of the physical world beyond climate, for instance more pronounced
urban heat islands, lower lake and river levels, and decreases in soil moisture. Those in turn affect socioeconomic and ecological systems (e.g., more disease carrying mosquitoes, greater agricultural yields in
some areas). Autonomous adaptations by humans may unleash many further consequences (e.g., decline
of certain economic sectors, greater use of air conditioning and generators). It is easy to conceive of
secondary and tertiary consequences with great potential for harm (e.g., large waves of climate migrants,
resource wars). Virtually all these possible effects and actors are tightly inter-related within a complex
bio-physical and socio-ecological system.
The methodology for an impact analysis may start with identification of direct impacts of climate change,
which may include:





Increased temperature and heat waves;
More intensive and/or frequent storms;
Sea level rise;
More droughts or flooding events;
More extreme rain;
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING



Change in annual or seasonal water availability;
Accelerated melting of glaciers;
Melting of permafrost.
From those, we may identify the next order of impacts, which may be grouped as biophysical effects (e.g.,
loss of species diversity, lower stream flows), economic impacts (e.g., loss of employment in resource and
tourism dependent communities, increased agricultural yields), changes in social conditions (e.g., public
health crisis, migration) and impacts to infrastructures (e.g., loss of permafrost affecting road conditions
in the North, damage following severe storms).
In order to guide the impact analysis toward more practical planning objectives, students may be asked to
pick a single impact and consider its many repercussions. For instance, lower water levels in the Great
Lakes-St. Lawrence River can impact many different sectors in many different ways, affecting different
levels of government, jurisdictions, economic uses and ecosystem needs. Figure 4 below depicts the
various ramifications of a ‘crosscutting’ climate change impact.
Students can also get an appreciation for the range, variety and linkages between impacts by reviewing
those impacts already experienced in Canada. Table 1 below contains a list of observed impacts on
physical and biological systems. Note that just as the climate will change differently depending on
location within the country, the impacts of the changes may vary widely as well. The consequent effects
on economy and society may also be quite varied.
Table 1 Some observed impacts of changing climate on physical and biological systems in
Canada. Source: (Lemmen, Warren et al. 2008).
System and Nature of Impact
Examples
Coastal erosion
More severe as a result of decreased
ice cover, sea-level rise, increased
storminess and non-climatic factors
 Accelerated erosion and degradation of the dunes and coastline throughout the
River and lake levels
Changes in water levels and timing
of peak flow events
 Decline in summer and fall runoff in Prairies, leading to lower lake and river levels
Glacier cover
Widespread reductions with local
variability
Snow cover
Reduced annual extent and duration
Sea, lake and river ice cover
Reduced extent and duration
Gulf of St. Lawrence, northeastern Prince Edward Island and southwestern,
western and eastern Newfoundland
at those times
 Trend towards earlier spring runoff
 Widespread retreat since late 1800s in western Canada, since 1920s in Arctic
 Glaciers in BC are currently retreating at rates unprecedented in the last 8000
years
 Estimated loss of ice mass in Canadian Arctic of 25 km3/a for period 1995–2000
 10% decrease in extent in Northern Hemisphere for period 1972–2003
 Decrease of 20 days in duration of snow cover in Arctic since 1950
 3% per decade decrease in annual average area of sea ice in Northern Hemisphere
for period 1978–2003
 Reduction of ice cover season on Great Lakes by 1–2 months during past 150 year
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
System and Nature of Impact
Examples
Permafrost conditions
Warming and deepening of annual
thaw layer
 Most significant warming in western Arctic
 At least 1°C increase in surface permafrost temperature since 1990 in northern
Quebec
 Increase in summer thaw penetration in the 1990s=
Plant phenology
Events occurring earlier
 26-day shift to earlier onset of spring over the past century in Alberta
 5–6 day advance since approximately 1959 in the onset of phonological spring in
Plant productivity
Lengthening growing seasons and
increased productivity
 Greater productivity rates of spruce and poplar in Quebec
 Lengthening of growing season for crop production
eastern North America
Distribution of some animal species
Northward or upslope shifts in
terrestrial
ecosystems,
shifts
towards warmer thermal regimes in
freshwater ecosystems
 Increasing abundances of cool and warm water fish species relative to cold water
species
The following summaries describe likely broader impacts in six regions across Canada. These will be used
in a classroom activity suggested for this section. See Exercises section below. The focus for the students’
analysis should remain on the nature and strength of the linkages between climate to various socioeconomic, infrastructures, bio-physical and other systems.
Atlantic Canada
The Atlantic Provinces are almost completely surrounded by water; consequently, changes to water
temperature and sea level will have the greatest effect on weather and climate. An increase of up to 4°C
over the next 100 years is projected, and the following climate change impacts are expected:

Rising sea levels – more than 80% of the Maritime province coastlines are classed as
moderate-high sensitivity to sea level rise. A rise in sea level will contribute to coastal
flooding and erosion, impacting infrastructure such as water and sewer systems, both
public and private, as well as having impacts on trade and tourism. Changes in sea ice could
affect flooding and ice scouring of infrastructure and some areas are at risk for saltwater
intrusion into groundwater supply.

Increase in extreme weather events – more frequent, shorter, and heavier bursts of
precipitation and wind are expected, and an increase in extreme storm events could cause
more storm surges and coastal flooding, especially when combined with sea level rise.
Increased precipitation and flooding from extreme weather events could also contribute to
an increase in non-point-source pollution and affect human health (pollution from runoff
into surface waters used for human consumption). Disruption to transportation, electricity
transmission and communications could have implications and result in isolation for some
communities.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING

Storm surges – as sea level is expected to rise dramatically over the next century, storm
surges will be able to flood areas never before flooded, impacting near-shore agriculture,
aquaculture, infrastructure and property.

Increase in weather variability – changes, such as occasional thaws in winter and frosts in
summer could occur. Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation distribution and
intensity is expected to impact agriculture, and water supply and quality, electric power
generation, and changes to river flows from earlier ice breakup, stronger spring runoff and
reduced summer flow, could impact several species.

Water resources – seasonal and yearly variations in precipitation, and increased
evapotranspiration rates will result in drier summer conditions. Municipal water supplies
and availability of water for agriculture, fisheries, tourism use and energy generation could
be challenged by limits to water resources.

Agriculture – longer, warmer summers could lengthen the growing season and increase the
yield of warm-weather crops, such as soybeans, winter cereals, corn, and grapes. However,
these conditions could also result in more droughts and a greater need for irrigation, and an
increase in the range and abundance of insect pests. Warmer winters could reduce the
winterkill of forage and fruit. An increase in storms, hail, floods, and drought could damage
crops and livestock. Insect pests affecting agriculture and forestry are expected to increase,
since they can adapt to warmer temperatures faster than their avian predators.

Forestry – warmer winter temperatures could increase invasive insects and greater climate
variability could result in stresses on existing tree species, elimination and/or introduction
of other species.

Fisheries – the distribution and population of key fish species may be affected, as fish are
extremely sensitive to temperature. The range and extent of organisms responsible for
toxic algae blooms could also increase. Aquaculture could see improved conditions for the
growth and reproduction of some species, while putting stress on others.
Sources:
Birch Hill GeoSolutions. Climate Change Adaptations
http://adaptation.nrcan.fgc.ca/projdb/178_e.php
for
Land
Use
Planners.
Project
A1209.
Available
at:
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 4 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
New Brunswick: Environment and Local Government. A Coastal Areas Protection Policy for New Brunswick. Available at:
http://www.gnb.ca/elg-egl/0371/0002.
Quebec
The province of Quebec will experience varying climate change impacts in its regions, depending on the
particular sensitivities of each region. The following impacts are expected:

Arctic Region – the Arctic region will probably experience the greatest changes to the
environment due to changes in the climate. Thawing of the permafrost will be an area of
high concern. In areas where the permafrost is relatively thin, with a temperature near 0°C,
rapid thawing could create risks for residences, buildings and infrastructure as well as
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
increase the likelihood of landslides. Villages partly or totally built on clayey soils will be
vulnerable to severe damage and will require mitigation and adaptation measures, which
could include relocation, in the next few years. Permafrost degradation, the formation of
thermokarst lakes and ponds, the expansion of shrub communities and displaced wildlife
populations will have significant impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Aboriginal
populations dependent on hunting and fishing will be adversely affected. Access to land will
be disrupted and alterations to the duration of hunting and fishing seasons and yields could
occur as result of climate changes.

Natural resource regions – climate change will alter natural environments, with the
possibility of significant impacts in areas dependent on natural resource development.
Some areas could be negatively impacted while others could experience benefits. The
extent of impacts is dependent on a number of factors and identifying specific impacts is
somewhat speculative; however, expected impacts in natural resource dependent regions
include:
Warming of summer temperatures, accompanied by a moderate increase in
precipitation in some regions, could affect the health and growth rates of certain
species positively, while colder and more humid condition will favour other species.
Warmer winters will increase damage to trees and winters with alternating periods of
intense cold and thaws and the absence of snow on the ground will expose young
plants and roots to freezing temperatures. Species sensitive to thaws will show decline.
Higher CO2 concentrations might favour herbaceous species, perennials, and broadleaf
and coniferous trees.
The availability of water will be a limiting factor in the productivity of several species.
A shift of the temperate mixed forest into the range of the boreal forest, and of the
boreal forest into the Subarctic region is expected.
There may be an intensification of the intensity of some insects, such as the spruce
budworm.
Changes to heat, precipitation, and C02 concentrations could have an impact on the
frequency and extent of forest fires.
The maple syrup industry is reliant on daytime thaws alternating with cold nights;
consequently, production in some areas would be drastically cut if successive day- and
night-time temperatures remained above zero.

Maritime regions – rising sea levels, a shortened freeze-up season, gradual disappearance
of sea ice and changing storm patterns will increase coastal erosion in the maritime region.
Coastal erosion will have impacts on infrastructure and the heavily utilized transportation
axes on the rim of the Saint Lawrence Estuary and Gulf where the economy and population
of this region is highly concentrated. Increasing coastal erosion will have significant impacts,
in terms of municipal infrastructure and road maintenance costs, but also in damages to
waterfront residential and commercial properties.

Agricultural regions – Climate conditions predicted for 2080 to 2100 for Quebec’s
agricultural region include a temperature rise of 2 to 3°C in summer and 3 to 4°C in winter,
and a precipitation increase of less than 5 per cent in summer and 10 to 20 per cent in
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
winter. These changes may result in a lengthening of the growing season for several crops,
changes in harvest dates for some crops and increased evapotranspiration from the soil.
Animals will be exposed to heat stress more often in the summer, potentially affecting
health and growth rates. Milder winters could allow for better growth rates for beef cattle
raised outdoors.

Weather Variability – a doubling of CO2 concentrations could see several species of plants
disappear as well as animals due to the loss of their ability to migrate and the loss or
shrinkage of their habitat. Higher temperatures and other environmental stresses could
break ecological links between interdependent species, resulting in a loss of bio-diversity.
Warming temperatures will likely result in significant habitat loss. In the most vulnerable
arctic and mountainous habitats, up to 20 per cent of local species may disappear.

Water quality – warmer temperatures and decreased precipitation levels are expected to
reduce flows in the main tributaries of the Saint Lawrence River during July to September,
presenting difficulties for municipalities that draw their water supply from them, and
necessitate a change in their supply system. Seasonal ebbs and flows in the volume of
water and in spring runoff caused by changing rainfall patterns will have consequences for
the transportation, residence time, and dilution of pollutants, as well as on the temperature
and, by extension, the quality of the water. If rainwater management is inadequate, an
increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events could cause storm drains to
backup, resulting in floods.
Sources:
Ouranos. 2004. Adapting to Climate Change. Available at http://www.ouranos.ca/cc/table_e.html.
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 5 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
Ontario
Projected future climate scenarios for Ontario include a lowering of lake levels, average annual
temperature increases particularly in winter, heavier short duration rain events and an increase in
frequency and duration of smog events. Potential impacts in the province are:

Lake levels – projections indicate a significant lowering of lake levels – 0.3 m for Lake
Superior, 1 m for Huron, 0.8 m for Erie and 0.5 m for Ontario. The potential impacts
include:

Commercial shipping – for each 2.5 cm lowering of Lakes Michigan and Huron a cargo ship
must reduce loads by 90 to 115 tonnes worth some $25,000 US per trip. Lowering of lake
levels in the Great Lakes could have impacts beyond the region including a loss of 1.3 m
water depth in Montreal Harbour on the St. Lawrence, which could result in a reduction in
tonnage handled (1988-91 reduction in water levels of only 30 cm resulted in a 15%
reduction in tonnage handled).

Electricity generation – hydropower production at Niagara and on the St. Lawrence would
be reduced with a lowering of lake levels. Losses were 19% and 26% respectively in the
1960s low water period.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING

Water quality – dredging of channels to compensate for the reduction of lake levels would
be costly and stir up contaminated sediments reducing water quality.

Property owners – shore property owners would inherit more land – a 1.6 m water level
decline on shallow Lake St. Clair would shift the shoreline by 1 to 6 km.

Wetlands – lower water levels will compromise the wetlands that maintain shoreline
integrity, reduce erosion, filter contaminants, absorb excess storm water and provide
habitat for fish and wildlife. An increase in invasive species is expected, as water levels
lower and climate conditions change.

Water demand – warmer summers will place greater demand on groundwater and
tributary rivers to the Great Lakes system, for both consumptive and recreational uses.
Groundwater provides 50% of the Great Lakes tributary stream flow and 90% of rural
residents use groundwater for domestic purposes. Projections to 2050 indicate a 19% drop
in groundwater levels and their contribution to base flow or minimum flows to streams.
Water shortages in the southern regions of the province are expected to become more
frequent as summer temperatures and evaporation rates increase.

Temperature variability – warmer winters will reduce the viability of winter roads, limiting
access for remote and resource based communities. Communities dependent on forestry
will be impacted by the increased frequency of forest fires and outbreaks of forest pests.

Precipitation variations – a 5% increase in heavier short duration (24 hours or less) rain
events has been observed and is expected to continue in future decades. Recent events in
2004 and 2005 suggest there may be even more rapid trends towards increasing magnitude
of heavy rain events in isolated storms. This could impact drainage design, storm water
management systems, soil erosion and polluted runoff from croplands and animal wastes.
A research study completed for the Soil and Water Conservation Society (2003) found that
a 10% increase in rain due to intensity changes resulted in an average 24% increase in
erosion and 25% increase in runoff.

Air quality and health – an increase in frequency and length of smog episodes, and more
intense and prolonged heat waves are expected. Air pollution and high heat stress will
affect vulnerable populations, such as asthmatics and the elderly.

Heat related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the
2050s. Air pollution mortality could also see an increase of 15 - 20% for the same time
period. Extreme heavy rain events could also contribute to outbreaks of infectious diseases,
such as the E. coli outbreak in Walkerton, Ontario that killed seven people and made 2,300
ill.

Recreational changes – a longer summer recreation season is expected while winter snowbased recreation in southwest Ontario is expected to have shorter seasons.
Sources:
Bruce, James P., Egener, I.D. Mark, and Noble, David. December 2006. Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-based Guide for
Ontario Municipalities. Available at http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf.
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 6 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Prairies
Climate change projections for the Prairies show an increase in temperatures, although the effects
experienced will vary between regions. Increased variability of soil moisture conditions can also be
expected due to warmer, drier summers, coupled with wetter cool season temperatures. Additional
impacts expected include:

Water resources – future projections include lower stream flows, falling lake levels,
retreating glaciers, and increasing soil- and surface-water deficits. A greater frequency of
drier years will result in increased aridity. A reduction in the surface area of glaciers could
result in the following impacts:
Loss of fisheries habitat as glacial melt water preserves habitat for aquatic species
Reduction in peak runoff concentrations affecting downstream regions
Increase dependence on groundwater vulnerable to variations
Increase competition for water use
Demand for water supplies is expected to increase with population growth
Increased need for irrigation as temperatures warm
Increase in evapotranspiration rates put additional stress on water supplies.

Ecosystem Impacts – shifts in bio-climate, the introduction of new insects and changes in
the ranges of current insects, stressed aquatic habitats and the introduction of non-native
plants and animals will impact ecosystems. Potential impacts on forests include:
Decrease in tree growth rate and timber production in southern forests
Decrease in survival rate of tree seedlings
Elimination of some southern forests, replaced with parkland and grassland
Increase in growth rate in northern forests or in wet sites
Increase in forest fires
Increase in insects such as spruce budworm and forest tent caterpillar
Potential impacts for agriculture include:
Invasion of new insects and diseases, increased risk of insect infestations
Increased risk of drought and dust storms
Increased demand for irrigation
Change in crop yield due to changes in growing season and soil moisture
Crop production may become possible in northern regions.

Warmer winters – cold winters help to limit pests and diseases and facilitate winter
operations in forestry and energy sectors. Potential impacts include possible mountain pine
beetle spread into pine forests and reduced accessibility of exploration and drilling sites.

Weather variability – levels of vulnerability are uneven geographically and among
populations across the Prairie region. Communities more reliant on ecological services for
livelihood and economies, such as aboriginal communities and forestry or agricultural
dependent communities, may be more vulnerable to climate variability. Potential impacts
on cities and rural areas include:
Increased competition for water supplies
Longer summer recreational season and shorter winter recreational season
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Increased heat stress and decreased air quality
Increased demand for air conditioning in summer months
Reduced winter heating demand
Decreased need for snow removal
Sources:
NRCan poster available at http://adaptation.nrcan.ca/posters/pr/index_e.php.
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 7 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
British Columbia
Climate projections suggest that climate in British Columbia will continue to change during the 21st
century; average temperatures and precipitation rates may increase, sea level may rise by 88 cm in
certain parts of the coast, small glaciers may disappear, salmon migration and spawning patterns are
likely to change and the range of the mountain pine beetle will likely expand. These changes are expected
to have the following impacts:

Warming temperatures – climate models predict a warming of 1.5 to 4.0°C by the 2030s.
Warmer springs may promote earlier break up of lake and river ice with resulting changes
in river hydrology and a longer season for warm-weather outdoor recreation activities.
Warmer summers may increase rates of evaporation and plant transpiration. Reduced
moisture may contribute to dust storms and soil erosion, increased demand for irrigation,
loss of wetlands, slower vegetation growth, forest fires, and the conversion of forest to
grasslands. It could also contribute to declines in ground water supplies and water quality in
some areas. Higher temperatures may increase temperatures in freshwater ecosystems,
creating stressful conditions for some fish species.
Warmer winters may mean that less energy is required to heat buildings and a shorter
season for winter recreation activities with consequent losses in that sector.
Warmer winter temperatures may allow the mountain pine beetle to extend its range
upwards into high-elevation pine forests that are not adapted to the beetle’s impacts.
Within the beetle’s current range, infestations and outbreaks could occur more regularly
and with greater severity. Tree mortality and increased logging activity to salvage beetlekilled timber could result in major hydrological and ecological changes in pine-dominated
watersheds. Pests, such as spruce bark beetle and others, could also affect other
commercial tree species.
Increased summer heat waves occurring more frequently, particularly in urban areas, could
increase heat-related health illnesses.

Increased precipitation – an increase in precipitation may make more water available for
natural systems to recharge groundwater aquifers, maintain river flows, replenish soil
moisture, maintain wetlands and marshes, and support plant growth. Hydroelectric power
generation, irrigation, and domestic water use could benefit from increased precipitation,
while flooding and damage to ecosystems and infrastructure could also result.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING

Decreased Summer Precipitation – The only season with projected precipitation decrease is
summer when municipal demand is highest, and evapotranspiration will increase with
warmer temperatures. Agriculture, water supply, hydroelectric power, fisheries and human
health could be affected by increased summer drought.

Glacial flows – changes in glacial flow patterns, and possibly river temperature, will likely
have significant impacts on freshwater and estuarine ecosystems, aquatic species,
biological systems and human activities that depend on water. In the short term, melting
glaciers will likely discharge more water into some streams, providing short term benefits
to hydroelectric power generation, water-based recreation, irrigation, fisheries and other
water users. However, higher flows may also increase stream turbidity and damage fish
habitat and riparian areas. Longer-term impacts of glacier retreat will likely mean reduced
water volume in glacier-fed streams and rivers. This could potentially generate increased
competition between various water uses.

Sea level rise – rising sea level will likely contribute to increased flooding of low-lying coastal
areas, threatening wetlands, beaches, dunes, aboriginal heritage sites, sensitive coastal
ecosystems, strain drainage and sewage systems, and private property. Salt water could
intrude into groundwater aquifers, making the water unfit for household or agricultural use
and cause the salination of low-lying agricultural lands. Higher mean sea level and more
frequent extreme storm events could increase coastal flooding and erosion, resulting in
damage to waterfront homes and infrastructure.

Agriculture – agriculture could be impacted both negatively and positively by climate
change. An increase in available heat energy could allow farmers to succeed in introducing
new varieties of crops and if soil conditions are adequate, agriculture could be expanded to
new regions within the province. Changes in hydrological systems combined with warmer
temperatures and greater evapotranspiration could mean less available soil moisture in
some regions as well as increased demand for irrigation. Warmer temperatures could also
mean that new insect pest species are able to move into a region.

Water shortages – smaller glaciers and decreased snow pack, changes to the amount and
timing of precipitation, and prolonged drought will place further limits on water supply
during times of peak demand. Competition amongst water uses will increase.

Infrastructure – Increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather and related natural
hazards will impact critical infrastructure including transportation networks, port facilities,
and electricity and communication distribution infrastructure.

Fisheries – future impacts could result in invasion of coastal waters by exotic species, rising
ocean and freshwater temperatures, and changes to the amount, timing and temperature
of river flows. Freshwater fisheries could be impacted by increased competition for water
usage from hydroelectric power generation, irrigation and drinking water. Freshwater and
saltwater environments of pacific salmon will be vulnerable to climate changes.
Sources:
Government of British Columbia: Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. 2002. Indicators of climate change for British
Columbia, 2002.
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 8 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Rodenhuis, D. et. al. (2007). Climate Overview 2007: Hydro-Climatology and Future Climate Impacts in British Columbia.
Abbott, C.L., Bennet, K.E, Campbell, Murdock, T.O. and Swain, H. Summary Report: Forest Pests and Climate Change Symposium:
14-15 October 2007.
Arctic Regions
The Arctic is expected to experience temperatures increases of 6-8°Civ warmer than current temperatures
by the middle of the 21st century. Significant changes in the physical environment will be seen,
particularly in areas with permafrost, sea and lake ice. Warming temperatures are already having impacts
on northern communities and lifestyles. Some further expected impacts include:

Changing ecosystems – the Arctic tundra zone will likely shrink in response to climate
warming; the treelike will shift northward, species composition of forests will change, and
wildlife habitat will change. The distribution of animal species, insects, parasites and pests
will move northward with potential adverse effects on plants and wildlife and opportunities
for agriculture could be presented in some regions.

Storms and fires – drier conditions and an increase in lightning storms are expected to
result in an increase in forest fires in the Boreal forest. Destruction of vegetation by fire
results in warming of the ground surface and can lead to an increase in the depth of
summer thaw, which could lead to increased landslides in some areas.

Thawing permafrost – climate warming will be accompanied by increased thaw of
permafrost and slope failure. These changes could pose challenges to navigation, offshore
resource development, communities reliant on coastal resources and damage existing
infrastructure. Much of the infrastructure of the north is dependent on permafrost to
provide stable surfaces for buildings and pipelines, warming and thaw may require
adaptation to ensure safety of existing infrastructure. Environmentally hazardous materials
contained in waste retention ponds and lakes that rely on the impervious nature of
permafrost could be impacted. Thawing permafrost releases both methane and CO2.

Accessibility – warming and thaw of permafrost will have a significant impact on existing
transportation networks and future plans. Marine and freshwater transportation will need
to shift reliance from ice routes to open water routes or land-based transportation as rates
of sea ice melting increases.

Ice Conditions: Sea ice is thinning and there is a loss of multi-year sea-ice.

Changing opportunities – diminishing sea-ice and a longer summertime shipping season
allowed by warming, will increase opportunities for shipping and passage within Arctic
waters. The development of new marine ports and all-season road networks to previously
difficult to reach regions could be possible. This could allow access to natural resources that
were previously uneconomical, as well as have socio-economic and cultural impacts on
arctic communities.

Changing coast – coastal communities will be affected by changes in storm intensity and/or
frequency. Storms will cause greater damage due to the decrease in coastal ice during the
summer months.

Rivers and lakes – an expected increase in precipitation could lead to an increase in stream
flow; however, this could be balanced by an increase in evaporation due to warmer
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
temperatures. Spring melt will likely occur earlier and last longer, causing changes in the
timing and amount of spring runoff, and the frequency of flooding may increase. Retreating
glaciers may provide a temporary increase in flow to streams but this source of water will
decrease over time. Warmer temperatures and earlier springs could ultimately dry up
wetlands and threaten fishing, hunting and trapping. Changes in water temperature could
benefit freshwater fish species while adversely affecting coldwater species that are not able
to adapt to warmer temperatures. Changes in the timing of river flows will require
modifications to existing infrastructure and hydroelectric power generation.

Changes in biodiversity – as climate changes continue, the range and distribution of many
species will be impacted. Northward migration of species, and competition and disruption
from competing species will alter terrestrial and aquatic communities. New animal
transmitted diseases and re-distribution of existing diseases will likely occur as
environmental conditions change. Where changes impact economically or culturally
important species, such as polar bears, caribou, and seals, there will be significant impacts
to people and regional economies.
A decrease in the extent of Arctic sea ice and an increase in the length of the melt season
may result in sea ice along the coast breaking up earlier. Seal breeding habitat could be
impacted, resulting in lower seal pups survival rate. Changes to sea ice habitat will also
place stresses on polar bear populations.
If snow depths are greater, as predicted, Caribou will need to spend more time and energy
digging through snow for food. In addition, warmer summers will increase the harassment
of caribou by mosquitoes, also resulting in less time spent eating. Less time spent eating
will decrease the body condition of caribou, and could make it more difficult for them to
give birth. Aboriginal communities reliant on hunting will be affected by changes in
abundance.
Sources:
NRCan poster available at http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/posters/wa/index_e.php.
Lemmen, DS, FJ Warren, J Lacroix, and E Bush (editors) (2008). Chapter 3 of From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing
Climate 2007. Ottawa, ON: Natural Resources Canada, Government of Canada.
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Inventories of potential climate change impacts, including both harms and opportunities, also may be
prepared for a particular city, as the following examples show. Note that the analyses may be focused on
various sectors or on climatic variables. Sector based analyses are discussed in the next section.
Table 2 Potential local impacts from local climate changes in Toronto.
Projected
change
Impacts Expected in the Toronto Area
Affected City Sectors
 Increased number of hot days, hot nights and heat waves
 Public Health
 Increased smog
 Toronto Water
 Increased illness and deaths due to heat waves and to smog
 Possible increase in food-borne illnesses
Hotter
summers
 Rising electricity demand for air conditioning and pressure
on the grid
 Hydro
 Planning
 Facilities & Real Estate
 Increased demand for water
 Increased stress on city trees, shrubs, turf cover and
gardens
 Shelter, Support & Housing
 Parks, Forestry & Recreation
 Police
 Possible increase in violence and crime
 Increased heat stress on outdoor workforce
 Emergency Services
 Energy use likely to decline in winter
 Facilities & Real Estate
 More disease-bearing insects will survive the winter and
Milder winters
 Transportation Services
expand the range of certain infectious diseases
 Public Health
 Parks, Forestry & Recreation
 Insect pests that attack trees will expand their range
 More freeze-thaw cycles that can damage roads and other
transportation infrastructure, as well as plants and trees
 TRCA
 Transportation
 Increased demand for water
Dryer summers
 Toronto Water
 Stress on urban trees and other vegetation
 Increased
maintenance
services
(water,
replacement) to sustain trees and park landscapes
mulch,
 Parks, Forestry & Recreation
 Hydro
 Reduced electricity generation from hydro
More intense
precipitation
 Increased pressure on the stormwater management system
 Toronto Water
 Flooding of basements and low-lying areas
 Public Health
 Increased wear and pressure on culverts, bridges and other
 Transportation Services
transportation infrastructure
 Emergency Services
 Contamination of streams and lake from runoff
 Legal Services
 Erosion of rivers and streams
 Planning
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Table 2 (continued) Potential local impacts from local climate changes in Toronto.
Projected Local
Changes
Some Impacts Expected in the Toronto Area
 Damage to buildings from heavy winds, tornadoes,
More extreme
weather,
storms,
and
increased wind
speeds
Some Affected City Sectors
 Facilities & Real Estate
heavy snowfalls, freezing rain
 Transportation
 Damage to other infrastructure
 Toronto Hydro
 Damage to transmission lines and electricity
 Emergency Services
 Parks, Forestry & Recreation
blackouts
 Damage to trees, parks and natural areas
Erosion of beaches, waterfront areas and stream
banks
 Public Health
 Shelter, Support & Housing
Planning
 Toronto Water
Water
level
drop in Great
Lakes Basin
 Increased concentration of contaminants in Lake
 Port Authority
 Parks, Forestry & Recreation
Ontario
 Reduced capacity for Great Lakes shipping
 TRCA
 Loss of wetlands
 Planning
 Public Health
In Kimberley & Elkford, BC, an Impact Pathway Mapping technique was used to help build people's
capacity to understand the possible impacts that temperature and precipitation change may bring, and
what possible actions to take. Impact pathways are designed as a web of connected impacts,
opportunities and consequences that stem from the possible effects of climate change. These visual
pathways draw connections between the chain of impacts that may result from climates changes to how
it may impact the environment and the citizens. They also used Scenario Planning to explore alternative
futures and started by asking how changes in climate will impact different parts of the community, such
as forests, recreation, transportation, health, and business sectors.
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1.
Sector impact analysis
It is useful to think about how different sectors, and systems within the sectors, will be impacted.
Consider economic sectors, such as tourism, agriculture, resource-extraction or aspects of the
environment, such as bio-diversity or coastal eco-systems. Health, infrastructure, transportation and
water resources will also be useful to consider.
Regional assessment reports provide information to guide discussion about possible impacts. Table 3 has
been adapted from Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State
Governments, a publication of the University of Washington and King County, Washington (US) (available
at http://www.cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/snoveretalgb574.pdf). The table is not an exhaustive list of
sectors. It may also be useful to consider possible impacts from social, environmental, economic, cultural,
and quality of life perspectives. Also, students should be reminded to consider that new opportunities
may arise that have beneficial impacts for a community.
Table 3 Initial scoping: a sample of sectors and potential climate change impacts.
Sector
Hydrology
and
water resources
Agriculture
Biodiversity
Forests
(including parks
and
urban
forests)
Impacts in some regions could include







Shift in the timing of spring snowmelt to earlier in the spring
Lower summer stream flows, particularly in snowmelt-dependent water systems
Increased risk of drought
Increased risk of flooding
Increased competition for water
Warmer water temperature in lakes and rivers
Changes in water quality






Changes in crop yields (varies by crop)
Potential ability to “double crop”
Increased risk of heat stress
Increased demand for irrigation water due to longer and warmer growing season
Increased risk of pest outbreaks and weeds
Potential ability to grow new warmer weather crops




Shift in the distribution and range of species
Loss of species not able to adapt to changes
Increased competition from invasive species
Loss of habitat





Increase in growth and productivity in near-term where soil moisture is adequate and fire risk is low
Shift in the distribution and range of species
Increased risk of insect outbreaks
Increased risk of forest fire
Increased competition from invasive species
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Table 3 (continued) Initial scoping: a sample of sectors and potential climate change impacts.
Impacts in some regions could include
Sector
 Increased opportunities for warm season activities in milder regions
 Decreased opportunities for warm season activities during the hottest part of the year, particularly
Recreation
Energy
in hotter southern & interior locations (e.g., from heat, forest fires, low water levels, reduced
urban air quality)
 Reduced opportunities for cold season recreation due to decreased snow pack and/or reduced
snow or ice quality
 Increased reliance on snow making at ski areas
 Shifts in tourism dollars within a community from one recreation sector to another, or from
communities losing recreational opportunities to communities gaining opportunities
 Reduced heating demand during winter months
 Increased cooling demand during summer months
 Increased or decreased hydroelectric generating capacity due to potential for higher or lower
stream flows
 Fewer travel disruptions and lower maintenance and infrastructure costs associated with snow and
Transportation
Infrastructure





ice
More travel disruptions associated with landslides, road washouts, and flooding
Increased road surface damage from higher temperatures
Potential reductions in water based navigation due to lower summer stream flows
Increased maintenance requirements for roadside and median strip vegetation
Increased brush fires in roadside and median strip vegetation
 Need for new or upgraded flood control, and erosion control structures
 More frequent landslides, road washouts, and flooding
 Increased demands on stormwater management systems with the potential for more combined
stormwater and sewer overflows
 Reduced effectiveness of sea walls with sea level rise
 Increased erosion or damage to coastal infrastructure, dunes, beaches, and other natural features
Coastal
resources
and ecosystems





due to sea level rise and storm surge
Loss of coastal wetlands and other coastal habitats due to sea level rise, erosion
Increased costs for maintenance and expansion of coastal erosion control (natural or man-made)
Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers due to sea level rise
Increased risk of pollution from coastal hazardous waste sites due to sea level rise
Loss of cultural and historical sites on coastline to sea level rise and related impacts
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
Table 3 (continued) Initial scoping: a sample of sectors and potential climate change impacts.
Impacts in some regions could include
Sector
Aquatic
ecosystems
Business
Health
 Shifts in species range and distribution
 Increased competition from invasive species
 Loss of near-shore habitat and coastal wetlands to sea level rise, where sufficient space for habitat
migration is not available
 Increased stress on coldwater species in lakes and rivers





Price volatility in energy and raw product markets due to more extreme weather events
Increased insurance premiums due to more extreme weather events
Fewer shipping disruptions associated with snow and ice
Impacts on business infrastructure located in floodplains or coastal areas
Shifts in business opportunities
 More heat-related stress, particularly among the elderly, the poor, and other vulnerable
populations
 Fewer extreme cold-related health risks
 Increase in vector-born illnesses (e.g., West Nile)
 Reduced summer air quality in urban areas due to increased production of ground-level ozone
Emergency
response
 Increased demands on emergency response services related to extreme weather events (e.g., heat,
flooding, storms)
Political
 Increased potential of ‘climate refugees’ and population migration
Social
 Impacts include potential disruptions to traditional / cultural ways of life and less certainty of local
knowledge.
Economic
 Increased financial costs of climate change adaptation actions and /or inaction
The elements of an impacts analysis and its complexity have been described in the academic literature
(Adger, Agrawala et al. 2007). The ideal process systematically reviews climate trends and scientific
projections using teams of climate scientists and other experts to determine and quantify the direct and
indirect impact on nature and society (CAP 2007). Lindley et al. (2006) note that although the term
‘impact’ implies a methodological approach that may appear simple, there is considerable complexity
inherent in predicting the consequences of certain climate change. There are feedback, threshold and
telescoping mechanisms associated with climate shifts and human and ecological responses, secondary
influences and vulnerabilities, which make impact projections extremely challenging and uncertain
(Lindley 2007).
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LECTURE 3 METHODS AND TOOLS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING
E.
Assessing risks, vulnerability and adaptive capacity
Most communities will not able to tackle all potential impacts of climate change due to limited resources
and time and other constraints. It is thus necessary to prioritize the response through some form of risk
assessment process to determine which impacts demand the most urgent attention. Risk-based impact
analyses are often referred to in the literature as vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (VIA) studies.
Note that risk assessment as an organizational framework for impact analysis becomes the conduit for
further inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary efforts. One advantage of such a risk approach is that it is
familiar to city managers and elected officials. It is commonly used by governments to manage overt
threats to society such as those posed by chemical installations (Lindley, Handley et al. 2006). Among
other things, it allows officials to allocate resources based on the nature, severity and probability of risks.
Planners can play an active, or even leading, role in impact assessments. Key data inputs for such studies
include demographic projections and historic, present and projected land uses and development patterns.
Planners have skills and knowledge well suited to provide such data and corresponding analyses.
Further, stakeholders and community resources must be integrated within such research efforts. Climate
change impacts will depend in part on the human response. How will farmers in the Okanagan Valley (BC)
react to lower water flows in springtime? What current and future institutional and social networks would
channel that response? Which groups in the community will suffer most and why? Planners are well
qualified to assist in the research and analyses needed to answer such questions.
Impact studies that actively engage stakeholders with scientists in the process of knowledge generation
can also help resolve many of the concerns and challenges of using scientific data in planning (recall
discussion in Lecture 2). They do so by:

Directly exposing scientists and scientific methods to stakeholders and planners, allowing
direct exchange of information that can both improve the accuracy and reliability of
results and increase confidence in the legitimacy and credibility of the results in the view
of stakeholders;

Providing a channel for discussion between planners and researchers on appropriate
research goals and questions, thus promoting product relevance;

Raising awareness amongst stakeholders about the nature and extent of the projected
threats and thus build support for action;

Improving scientific output through community review by allowing stakeholders and other
non-scientist participants to present their viewpoints. This may be particularly important
for observations of climate and atmospheric phenomena (e.g., air quality) regarding which
the public may have unique insight (Yearley 2006).

Serving as conduits for capturing lay and traditional knowledge through dialogues,
workshops and other methods that may ease communications;

Building capacity in planning by training planners in a ‘real life’ setting.
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1.
Methods of impact assessment
There are a number of distinct but related types of impact assessments. Standard risk assessment tools
focus on establishing the probability of occurrence and severity of the impacts. This approach is illustrated
in Error! Reference source not found. and discussed in more detail below.
Another type is the vulnerability study. Rather than looking at impacts generally, this approach attempts
to identify and describe those sectors, systems or communities most exposed and susceptible. Further,
researchers aim to maximize potential benefits and minimize or reverse potential losses. Key elements of
the research strategy is to develop a way to prioritize risks for decision-making and offer a framework for
considering the different research approaches and methods as well as confronting the treatment of
uncertainty (CAP 2007).
One may describe the vulnerability associated with the particular climate impact using the following
questions as guides:

How well does the current system cope with these kinds of impacts?

How often would events in a changed climate exceed the current ability of the system to
respond (e.g., flood levees, capacity of emergency rooms)?

Is the time frame for upgrading systems (physical or social) such that one can adjust for the
impacts of a changing climate in normal cycle of upgrades/changes?

How difficult will it be for vulnerable groups and systems to respond or adapt to the change?

Are disadvantaged groups likely to be more adversely affected?

Are fragile natural systems likely to be irreparably damaged?

Does the community have resources and capacity to respond?
Another method of impact assessment is the adaptation-based approach. It examines the adaptive
capacity and adaptation measures required to improve the resilience or robustness of a system (Adger et
al. 2007; (Smit and Wandel 2006). What are the features of a system or community which enable it to
respond? Are its laws and resources well positioned to respond when the threat arises? Can institutional
reform improve the community’s ability to adapt? In such studies, an evaluation of a community’s
response to prior climate related events may be a key focus.
Smithers and Smit (1997) suggest a three part analysis for assessments of adaptation capacity, focusing
on three elements of every adaptation process (see Figure 5):

What are the attributes of the perturbation or stressor in question?

What are the characteristics of the impacted system?

What is the nature of the potential and actual responses?
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For adaptation studies, it is critical that
recommendations be as community-focused as
possible, avoiding arbitrary or researcherpreferred adaptation approaches, criteria or
benchmarks. The point is not to recommend
new structures or policies divorced from the
relevant context, but rather to gauge the true
adaptive capacity of the planning institutions
and policies within the community. Thus, it is the
experience of the community and stakeholders
themselves that will reveal their sensitivity and
exposure to changing conditions and the
processes of decision making in the community
that may accommodate adaptation or provide
the means of improving adaptive capacity (Smit
& Wandel 2006).
Figure 4
Model framework for adaptive capacity
analysis, considering nature of climatic
disturbance, characteristics of affected system,
and adaptive responses. Source (Smit, Burton
et al. 1999)
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2.
The risk analysis tool
Traditionally, risk analysis investigates the probability or expected frequency of each impact identified in
the inventory of vulnerabilities. Each impact will also be evaluated for the potential severity of the impact
on the physical and natural environment of the city, the health and well-being of its citizens, and costs to
the economy. Combining probability and severity allows for assignment of a risk level to a particular
impact from very low risk to extreme. Refer to Figure 5.
Once this is done, it is necessary to relate impacts to the municipal (or other government)’s organizational
structure, and the various planning areas (e.g., transportation, housing, economic development, land
use). Planners will need to identify areas and roles that are responsible for each of the sector impacts that
are likely to occur, including other departments. Current planning policies and development
recommendations with implications for climate change impacts in the community will need to be
identified.
Figure 5 Sample risk evaluation matrix (Source: TEO 2008).
Extreme
Major
Moderate
Severity
of
Impact
Low
Very Low
Very
Unlikely
To
Happen
Occasional
Moderately
Occurrences Frequent
Occurs
Often
Virtually
Certain
to Occur
Frequency / Probability
Extreme Risk: immediate controls required
High Risk: High priority control measures required
Moderate Risk: Some controls required
Low Risk: Controls not likely required
Negligible Risk: Do not require further consideration
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Such assessments are not an exact science, but can be very helpful in identifying high priority climate
impacts that need to be addressed soon from those that can be addressed later. When this risk
assessment process is completed and reported to council, the city will have a shorter list of high priority
climate impacts on which to focus its energies and resources (TEO 2008).
A risk analysis will require planners to delve deeper (once all potential impacts are have been scoped) to
understand who will be impacted, what areas of planning and other departments in an organization will
be affected and which impacts present the greatest vulnerabilities in the face of climate change. Consider
who and what will be directly affected by the impacts. This might include:
Individuals and groups of people, e.g., waterfront home owners, farmers, or seniors living in their
own homes;
Local government and other levels of government;
Infrastructure;
Eco-systems;
Land;
Businesses.
3.
Examples of impact studies
One example of an impact study in Canada is a project by the Ouranos Consortium in which researchers
used a scenario based impact approach to study the effects of rising sea levels, more storms and other
climatic changes expected on the north shore of the Saint Lawrence River. The resulting maps depict
areas where future erosion may cause the greatest harm in three selected communities. See Figure 7.
The projected erosion rates are dependent on alternative scenarios. The most optimistic scenario simply
projects the erosion rate to continue at the same rate as in the last 45 years. That rate was determined by
examining pictures of the shoreline. Two alternative, more aggressive, erosion scenarios were developed
based on the analysis by the project scientists. The most pessimistic scenario projects significant
incursions into densely developed land (see redlined zone in Figure 7 below).
Note that while the results are seemingly straightforward, they are the product of an intensive multidisciplinary effort. To understand and quantify shore dynamics, several different climate parameters had
to be projected, including storm frequency, snow and ice cover and sea level rise. Scientists with expertise
in wave dynamics, human geography, storm tracks, and shore dynamics joined hydrodynamics and
climate modeling professionals. Collaboration from various universities, research institutes and
government agencies was necessary. Also included in the study were stakeholder representatives from
various affected regional governments.
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Figure 6 Impact map showing three possible erosion scenarios for the North Shore of
the St. Lawrence River (Source: Bourke et al. (undated).
Another, recent study by a group of UK-based climate scientists and geographers is an excellent example
of a vulnerability approach. The project looked at the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon in Manchester
(UK) (Lindley 2007). The primary purpose of the project was to show which areas within the conurbation
may be especially susceptible to heat related illness and mortality under future climate conditions.
The risk concept became the framework for mobilizing and translating scientific information from many
different disciplines into a comprehensive, easily understandable, integrated result. Essentially, risk was
defined as the combination of three factors: occurrence of a hazard, exposure of a population to it and
the vulnerability of that population. See Figure 8.
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Figure 7
Elements of a risk based analysis, used by an urban
heat island research group in Manchester (UK)
(adapted from Lindley 2007).
Note the need for careful integration of scientific climate data and technical, demographic and socioeconomic data. Climate projections such as temperature, winds, precipitation and storm frequency are
only part of the relevant inquiry. The occurrence of the hazard (UHIs) depends also on the thermal
performance of buildings and paved surfaces. That in turn depends on albedo values, building materials,
street geometries and sky view factors. The presence of vegetation, water bodies and soil humidity also is
critical as evapo-transpiration can have a major cooling effect. The presence of waste heat, e.g., industrial
uses and motorized traffic, and poor air quality can also exacerbate the heat as well as vulnerability.
The researchers applied a geographic information system (GIS) mapping approach, in which a hazard and
vulnerability layer was superimposed over a temperature (occurrence) layer. Each layer requires several
inputs. Socio-economic and demographic data feeds into the vulnerability layer. Specifically, populations
over 74 and under 5 years of age, dependent populations and population in ill health were identified.
Detailed land use data and temperature data was combined to develop the hazard layer. The temperature
layer depicted projected urban heat islands in the city in the 2080s, using alternative high and low
emissions scenarios. See Figure 8.
Ultimately, the hazard and vulnerability layers were combined into a final UHI risk map for the city. The
resulting ‘risk layer’ map can be used by Manchester planners to identify those areas of the city where
planning interventions may be necessary to prevent and minimize heat related injuries in the decades to
come.
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Figure 8
Composition of hazards and vulnerability layers, leading to final UHI risk map in
Manchester (UK) study. Source: Lindley et al. 2007
Several other UHI studies, including some for Montreal, have used a similar (albeit simplified) risk
approach and GIS methodologies (CCAP 2007; Pitre 2008). However, even the simplest study should
require coordination of climate specialists, urban canopy specialists, geographers, demographers, public
health specialists and planners. See Figure 10.
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Figure 9
Depiction of the many disciplines that may need to collaborate to complete a UHI
adaptation study (source: Chan 2007).
Detailed studies of regional or municipal adaptive capacity and constraints are still somewhat rare. A
number of cities and regions in Canada and abroad have begun to study their legal, institutional, socioeconomic, cultural and other structures with a view to identifying synergies and barriers to climate
adaptation strategies.
Vacouver’s plan, prepared by The Sheltair Group, is a well known example (The Sheltair Group 2008). In
Toronto, The Clean Air Partnership, in collaboration with Toronto’s Climate Adaptation Steering Group
has provided adaptation analyses and proposed a number of institutional reforms to improve adaptive
capacity (CAP 2007; TEO 2008).
Finally, the work in Toronto and the BC communities of Elkford and Kimberley illustrate adaptationfocused impact analyses. In the case of Toronto, adaptive capacity was defined as the ability of built,
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natural or human systems within a given region to accommodate changes in climate with minimal
disruption or additional cost/investment. The authors suggested doing an initial assessment of the
adaptive capacity of the city by asking questions such as:

To what extent do current plans and programs already take into account current climate
variability or future climate change?

To what extent do they provide a buffer against climate impacts?

What additional resources or programs are needed to plan for and protect against
expected climate changes? What additional skills or training do staff need?
At Elkford, the consultants adapted the CIG Preparing for Climate Change Guidebook and Ontario
Municipal Risk Assessment Guidebook. Methodologies proposed there for sensitivity and adaptive
capacity assessments were used to consider how climate changes relate to sensitivities and adaptive
capacities in the community. In determining the vulnerability of each priority area, Elkford staff, council
members, community advisory committee members, the Mayor, and other members of the research
network were engaged in a full-day workshop. Participants first addressed the following questions:

What are Elkford’s weak spots (vulnerabilities) in each priority planning area?

What should we pay attention to, in order of priority?

What further information do we need?
The process of the vulnerability and risk assessment aimed to answer these questions:

What are the potential impacts of wildfire, flooding and water availability "incidents" in
Elkford?

What is the likelihood that some of these impacts will be seen in Elkford?

Where has Elkford already acted to mitigate these impacts?

What are potential responses for mitigating risks with minimal disruption and cost?”
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4.
Participatory, integrated assessments
One promising, emerging approach in climate impacts and adaptation research is known as participatory
integrated assessment. These are climate studies that are place-based, iterative and continuing, and
which aim to provide integrated insights from the scientific and stakeholder community directly to the
decision-makers (Rotmans 1998). The product of the research may include, in addition to climate scenario
and model data, plans or a portfolio of adaptation options for an area.
In general, two types of research methods are integrated within such studies: (1) analytical methods,
rooted in the natural and environmental sciences and (2) participatory methods (or communicative
methods) for those research questions in the social and political sciences (Rotmans 1998). Analytical
methods include model analysis, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Participatory methods vary, including
expert panels, delphi methods, gaming, policy exercises and focus groups. Throughout the entire process
a key aim is to involve non-scientists and stakeholders in the process (Rotmans 1998). See Figure 11.
Participatory integrated assessments often take months or years and can involve many research teams
and large numbers of community leaders and experts. While the results can be impressive, the amount of
effort required is substantial.
Figure 10
Integrated assessments comprise questions in the
physical and social sciences, with multiple research
methods integrated into one iterative, inclusive
study. Source: Rotmans (1998)
There are several illustrative cases of participatory integrated assessments in Canada. Cohen (1997)
conducted a multi-sector study for the Mackenzie Basin in the mid 1990s. It was designed to comprise a
multi disciplinary team of scientists and stakeholders. More than 30 separate research activities were
conducted on various impact topics, including permafrost, water levels, forests, economics, social and
community groups and more. Integrated modeling exercises included resource accounting, multiregional
climate modeling, community surveys, multi-objective models focusing on changing land utilization, land
assessment frameworks using analytical hierarchy processes (Cohen 1997; Huang et al. 1998).
More recently, another study was conducted focused on the water management sector in the Okanagan
Region of British Columbia (Cohen et al. 2006). The first phase of that study considered the hydrological
aspects to identify climate change impacts on regional hydrology, and possible adaptation strategies.
Subsequently, approaches for engaging resource managers and regional stakeholders in a dialogue on
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adaptation were tested (Cohen et al. 2006). The depiction from Cohen et al. (2006) showing the
framework for the study is reproduced below (Figure 12).
Figure 11
Framework of participatory integrated assessment study looking at water
management in the Okanagan region, BC. Source: (Cohen et al. 2006)
Methods used within the study included field research, computer based models and dialogue exercises.
The intent was in part to learn about future implications of water scarcity and to gain a sense of
adaptation prospects. Partnerships with government, academia and community, local water users and
other stakeholder groups were formed.
Building on the scenario-based study components, a series of interviews and surveys were undertaken for
the water management and adaptation case study components. Subsequently, a set of stakeholder
dialogue sessions were organized. They focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and
processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on ‘best’ option or process, regional
interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could
address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan
Region (Cohen et al. 2006).
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F.
Evaluating adaptation options and developing a plan
1.
Establishing planning principles
Planners commonly identify planning principles at the beginning of a community planning process. This
practice is just as applicable to climate change adaptation planning. The UK Climate Impacts Programme
(UKCIP) has recommended ten such principles. See Table 4 below. These principles are a useful starting
place for any community launching a climate change adaptation planning process, and can be modified to
suit the particular context. Students should contrast these and other formulations with the adaptation
concepts discussed in Lecture 2.
Table 4 Ten principles of effective adaptation planning. Source: UKCIP Adaptation Wizard.
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=90&Itemid=207#Partnership

Work in partnership — identify and engage key stakeholders and ensure they are well
informed.

Frame and communicate objectives/outcomes before starting out (i.e. specific, measurable,
achievable, results-oriented, and time-bound objectives).

Understand risks and thresholds, including associated uncertainties.

Manage climate and non-climate risks using a balanced approach – assess and implement
approach to adaptation in the context of overall sustainability and development objectives
that includes managing climate and non-climate risks.

Focus on actions to manage priority climate risks – identify key climate risks and opportunities
and focus on actions to manage these.

Address risks associated with today’s climate variability and extremes as a starting point
towards taking anticipatory actions to address risks and opportunities associated with longerterm climate change.

Use adaptive management - recognize the value of a phased approach - to cope with
uncertainty.

Recognize the value of no/low regrets and win-win adaptation options in terms of costeffectiveness and multiple benefits.

Avoid actions that foreclose or limit future adaptations or restrict adaptive actions of others.

Review the continued effectiveness of adaptation decisions by adopting a continuous
improvement approach that also includes monitoring and re-evaluation of risks.
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2.
Identifying potential adaptation and mitigation measures
Planners need to identify the range of feasible plans, measures and projects that may be pursued in
response to climate change, both to increase resilience (adaptation) and reduce GHG concentrations
(mitigation). Means to help identify adaptation actions include:
 Engaging key stakeholders, experts and community members;
 Working with cross-departmental stakeholders; and
 Drawing inspiration from communities with strong adaptation planning track records;
 Performing an inventory of existing programs and projects to spot synergies.
Planners can also approach this task by considering methodically the different ways in which the local
government can act, asking themselves how climate change may be promoted using those different
modes of action.
Local governments act in several capacities or competencies, including as a corporate entity, as a service
provider, as a regulator, as the political representative of the community and more. Considering each of
those modes of action, various mitigation and adaptation actions can be identified:
1. Measures may be taken by local government in their corporate capacity as owners of land and
goods (e.g., the municipal fleet, city buildings, street lights, public parks). Direct control over
public land offers opportunities for pilot projects, retrofitting programs and other direct
investments in energy efficient technologies. Many of those projects will also provide a ready
platform for reducing vulnerabilities to climate extremes.
2. Local governments also can act in their capacity as service providers (electricity, potable water,
waste collection, parking). Through the levying of charges to their customers, local government
can influence consumption patterns and manage demand. A good example may be congestion
pricing of roads and higher parking fees) .
3. As the political power closest to citizens, local government also has a unique opportunity to
educate and raise awareness. Mayors and members of council meet with the press and
constituents on a regular basis and attend public events. Local governments are also called to
conduct studies and provide information and advice about local conditions. This gives local
government the opportunity to increase awareness of the need for stronger mitigation measures.
4. Finally, local government possesses regulatory power in the areas of land use, traffic and parking,
public health and many others. By passing and enforcing bylaws, local officials may directly
control the action of the private sector.
Students should be invited to consider each of these four modalities of local action and the various
different mitigation measures that fall under each. In the next sections we look at more concrete
examples of responses to climate change in the realm of planning.
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a)
Range and variety of mitigation measures
There are many measures within the realm of land use planning that may be used to reduce GHG
emissions. Which one is selected will depend on the needs and preferences of the community, the level of
local commitment to the issue and the resources and capacity available to invest and implement various
programs (FCM and ICLEI 2009).
One can explore the range and variety of possible mitigation measures by looking at
Table 5 below. It shows some of the most significant projects (in terms of amount of GHGs reduced) that
have been undertaken by municipal governments in Canada as of 2009. Note also the differences in costs
and potential return on investment associated with the different measures.
Table 5 A selection of notable mitigation projects of Canadian municipalities. Source (FCM and
ICLEI 2009).
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b)
Types of adaptation measures
Planners also will need to identify the range of feasible adaptation options. Possible adaptation options
will naturally arise from discussion of the impacts of climate change. Engaging community members is
also a good way to identify effective potential actions and at the same time build support for their
implementation. In addition, tapping into the knowledge and experience of cross-departmental
stakeholders enriches an understanding of what is possible and what the implications of potential actions
are. Reviewing case studies to see how other municipalities have responded can also be a key source of
insights into what is possible.
Reference should be made to the experience of other jurisdictions. Table 6 below shows some of the
results of an analysis performed for the City of Toronto.
Table 6 Selected adaptation options for Toronto (by sector).
SYSTEM
SOME EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS
 Expand the implementation of sustainable urban drainage systems including permeable pavements,
Stormwater
Flooding
/




green roofs, storm water retention ponds, constructed wetlands and swales
Create natural eco-system buffers for vulnerable water bodies & low-lying areas
Expand capacity of storm sewers, overland flow routes to manage extreme weather events
Flood-proof buildings in vulnerable locations
Educate the public on the need for proper grading to drain water away from their homes
 Expand conservation and demand side management to reduce peak loads during heat waves that make
Energy
transmission systems vulnerable to blackouts
 Increase street tree planning and maintenance, green roofs and high-albedo surfaces to reduce urban
heat and unsustainable energy demand for air conditioning
 Implement weatherization program to reduce building loads, especially for low-income areas
 Expand distributed energy systems to reduce vulnerability to transmission interruptions from storms and
high winds
 Evaluate the vulnerability of port facilities and associated infrastructure due to changes in water level
Transportation
and increased wave activity
 Assess and retrofit vulnerable transportation infrastructure systems such as culverts, tunnels, bridges,
subway entrances, etc.
 Ensure critical components such as switch gear or substations are above flood levels
 Take account of the increased risks of flooding, heat waves, intense storms, wind speed and other
climate change effects in building development standards
Buildings
 In areas with flooding potential, use ground-floor spaces for flood-compatible uses such as car parking,
or raise the ground floor above likely flood levels
 Design buildings for improved natural ventilation
 Ensure roof systems and cladding materials can cope with higher wind speeds
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SYSTEM
SOME EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS
 Protect existing ecosystems (parks, tree stands, waterways, ponds, lakes, ravines, wetlands, etc.) and
develop connected greenway system to allow natural species migration
Urban
Ecosystems
 Create and preserve green spaces in low-lying areas for flood management
 Increase shoreline buffers to protect against increased runoff from more intense storms
 Enhance conditions for street tree survival and growth (increase space for roots, control soil compaction,
increase watering and maintenance, plant appropriate species)
 Monitor and control pests and invasive species that can expand with warmer winters
 Conduct public education on climate-related health threats (vector-borne diseases, heat, air pollution,
floods and storms) and prevention
 Interventions to reduce heat island effects including street tree planting, green roofs, high albedo roof
Health
and road surfaces
 Interventions to reduce air pollution including emissions reduction measures and air quality warning
systems
 Interventions to prevent impacts from expansion of vector-borne diseases
 Interventions to reduce health and security impacts from extreme weather events
For many municipalities, especially the larger ones, there will undoubtedly be many existing programs,
plans and projects that will address existing vulnerabilities and adaptation capacity. They should be
identified and studied to see how they may be incorporated into the climate change adaptation effort,
altered and strengthened as appropriate. It may be useful to conduct a formal ‘climate preparedness
inventory’ to assess and identify existing programs and initiatives that reduce vulnerability to climate
change.
In the same Toronto study, the following programs with potential synergy with an adaptation plan were
identified:
 Toronto’s Heat Alert system and Hot Weather Response Plan. Toronto Public Health
issues heat warnings and works with community agencies to prevent illness and death
during periods of extreme hot weather. Toronto Public Health has studied climate change
and its effects on heat and air pollution in the City to help with planning for the future.
 The Wet Weather Flow Master Plan. This 25-year implementation plan is designed to
reduce flooding from intense rainfall, and water quality and erosion impacts on streams
and lake water. Toronto Water is using information from the August 19, 2005 storm to
guide its implementation of this plan.
 Basement Flooding Protection Subsidy Program. The City is subsidizing the costs of
installing backwater valves and sump pumps on household sewer connections in order to
provide additional protection against flooding from sanitary sewers.
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 Flood Warning Forecasting. The Toronto Regional Conservation Authority is improving the
existing system to better prepare for flood emergencies and reduce damage to life and
property.
 The Green Roof Pilot Incentive Program. This program provides an incentive for green
roofs to be installed on new or renovated Toronto buildings. Green roofs capture and
retain stormwater and they also cool the buildings on which they grow.
 A Commitment to Double the Tree Canopy. Parks, Forestry and Recreation is undertaking
a major study of canopy potential and associated implementation strategy with Planning
& Transportation Services. Expanding the tree canopy in Toronto will provide shade,
lessen the urban heat island effect, and reduce runoff and other effects of climate change.
According to the UK Climate Impacts Programme, adaptation actions generally fall into one of the
following categories:

Acceptance – accept that there will be some loss;

Prevention – prevent the effects of climate change – reduce vulnerability, for example, by moving
location, building higher dykes, re-designating land uses to prevent development on land
threatened land by coastal erosion;

Share loss/risk – share responsibility for the losses or risks - for example by using insurance,
collaborating with various levels of government to share the costs of adaptive actions, or working
with neighbouring municipalities and organizations to prepare to respond to impacts (e.g.,
emergency preparedness);

Exploit opportunities – e.g., change crops grown to suit new climate conditions, develop summer
season recreation in ski areas.
Students should be urged to contrast these with the concepts and theories of adaptation described in
Lecture 2.
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3.
Criteria for evaluation and decision making
Establishing the criteria for the evaluation of proposed plans or projects and for selecting the most
appropriate and effective among them is a critical element of every planning process. In the context of
climate change planning, this step can begin by identifying the key adaptation and mitigation principles
espoused by the community. For example, in the Toronto case, it was determined that the selection
criteria could include:

The effectiveness of the adaptation action in providing protection for vulnerable
populations;

The extent to which proposed options protect against loss of life or major economic
losses;

Whether the adaptation option reduces stress on vulnerable systems;

The cost of the adaptive action compared to the cost of alternative strategies, or the
potential cost of not acting;

The extent to which adaptation options also reduce greenhouse gas emissions or provide
other benefits that increase the sustainability and livability of the City.
In the adaptation plans for the BC communities of Kimberley & Elkford, key criteria for selecting actions
were:

Will the actions meet preparedness goals?

Do the benefits of the action exceed the costs?

Is the action robust under the range of climate change scenarios?
In the sections that follow those and other evaluation principles are explored in some detail. Students
should bear in mind, however, that there exist other important filters of a more practical nature. Thus,
some options will be rejected because they exceed the capacity of the local government. Projects may not
be feasible considering:

Financial cost;

Human resources;

Barriers to implementing options (e.g. lack of supportive internal policies, existing
restrictive legislation, lack of access to appropriate technologies).
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a)
Cost benefit analysis and economic valuation tools
Perhaps the most widespread decision making criteria is the cost/benefit analysis. Generally, this
assigning monetary values to all expected consequences (positive and negative) associated with
proposed measures. The measure or package of measures that would deliver the highest benefitsmeasure or return on investment (ROI) would be preferred. Refer to
Table 5 above. Alternatively, this method may be use to ensure that the option selected (while not
perhaps the most valuable in monetary terms) does offer benefits in excess of its costs.
There is a well known and extensive literature on the many pitfalls of cost benefit analysis. Many question
both the propriety and feasibility of applying monetary values to non-market goods such as biophysical
systems and social welfare, as well as the serious social inequities that may result. See (O'Neill 2001)).
Ackerman (2008) reviews some of the major criticisms and alternative approaches such as multi-criteria
analyses and holistic evaluations of costs and benefits which do not attempt to translate disparate values
into one monetary scale. Indeed, some elements of economic analysis such as discounting of future
values accentuate the inter-generational inequity that is a hallmark of the problem of climate change.
Nevertheless, while some reject the use of cost benefit analysis as the ultimate evaluation criteria,
economic tools do have an important role in almost all analyses. Thus, even where a plan is guided by
non-utilitarian objectives (i.e., prioritization of risks faced by an especially vulnerable population, a
welfare redistribution effort, sustainability principles) there are likely to be multiple alternatives to
achieve that goal. An economic evaluation of each alternative would be relevant and useful in
determining the cost effectiveness of each solution (i.e., which is the least expensive way to achieve the
goal).
Some responses may deliver equally or nearly as effective risk reduction for dollar spent as others. For
instance, green roofs have been identified as a very effective method to reduce urban heat, reduce run
off and improve air quality. However, they can be expensive. Other approaches such as white painted
roofs, gutter disconnect programs and the use of permeable paving materials may achieve similar
benefits at much lower costs.
b)
Assisting the most vulnerable first
As mentioned in the preceding section, a community may wish to prioritize policy goals other than
maximization of value and a narrowly defined sense of the general welfare (to wit: economic wealth). For
instance, one community may choose to pursue the moral leadership amongst others in its region and be
known as the greenest of all. Another may choose to pursue opportunities in the new renewable energy
economy with measures undertaken and resources spent today which may exceed what a classic
cost/benefit analysis would suggest is appropriate.
Perhaps most commonly, some communities will decide to forego the economically preferred path in
order to correct past injustices and reduce social inequalities. As we have seen, exposure, vulnerability
and adaptive capacities will vary considerably within a city or even a neighbourhood. For instance, the risk
of heat related mortality is greatest for the elderly, the poor and disenfranchised living in highly dense,
mineralized areas. Programs to improve living conditions and to green public areas may be first
implemented in those neighbourhoods where the most vulnerable population resides.
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c)
The precautionary principle
As discussed in Lecture 1, another hallmark of climate change policy is the uncertainty that pervades
some aspects of the science and future projections, especially at finer scales and far off decades or long
time periods. For planners, perhaps regrettably, these are only two of many other categories of
uncertainty. There is a large body of academic scholarship recognizing the extent of uncertainty in
planning and suggesting approaches for coping with it. See Abbott (2001); Christensen (1985).
Accordingly, it is imperative that planners develop and recommend ways for acting despite (indeed
because of) high levels of uncertainty. In this regard, the precautionary principle may useful.
In a nutshell, the principle states that in situations where of the harm that may result from inaction is
potentially severe, stronger responses and more rapid implementation than would otherwise be
undertaken should be favoured. Thus, the principle flips what would ordinarily be an argument against a
particular proposal into an argument for it. In practice, its application requires a thorough investigation of
the kinds of potential harms flowing from a climate impact in order to articulate its severity, both in
extent of application (who is affected) and the nature of harms (deaths, catastrophic losses). Having
determined through deliberation amongst stakeholders that the risk is severe enough, measures to
address it may be adopted without regard to the quantification of the probability of its occurrence. Thus,
the application of the principles dispenses with the burden of quantifying probabilities which is the
hallmark of traditional risk analysis.
d)
Win/win, low regrets strategies and preventing maladaptation
How various alternative adaptations interact with other initiatives may suggest positive synergies.
Accordingly, adopting certain plans may produce benefits regardless of whether the particular climate
impact comes to pass. These may be actions that cost relatively little, but deliver relatively large benefits.
For example, planting trees or shrubs is a relatively inexpensive measure that provides shade, cools urban
centres, reduces energy consumption and enhances air quality and the physical environment. Multiple
benefits are realized for relatively low cost, whether climate change impacts come to pass or not.
Note that some climate change responses are both mitigating and adaptive at the same time and may be
favoured for that reason. For example, conserving water reduces the emissions generated by the systems
that supply water to users and is also an adaptive behaviour change in response to possible reduced
water supply. To maximize the benefit in cases such as this, it is helpful to look for responses that address
both mitigation and adaptation. For more on mitigation and adaptation synergies, refer to Lecture 2.
Finally, planners will need to avoid mal-adaptive responses. Some adaptation will increase other
vulnerabilities. Suppose a group of coastal residents decide to harden their coast to prevent erosion
(using rocks, rip-rap, etc.). This could cause increased erosion for properties down the shore as they are
deprived of sediment that they normally receive. Other examples are water resource allocations based
only on past decades and end up allocating more water than will be available as climate changes or
increased use of air conditioning in expectation of heat waves, a response that only aggravates global
warming. Table 7 in the next page sets forth a more detailed list of evaluation criteria for climate change
responses prepared by Bizikova et al (2008).
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Table 7 Suggested criteria for evaluating climate change responses. Source: Bizikova et al 2008)
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G.
Implementing and Monitoring Adaptation Plans
As in any good planning exercise, planners will want to periodically assess progress and determine how
effectively adaptation strategies are achieving the intended objectives. In essence, planners will want to
know:

Which strategies are working and which are not?

Which strategies are achieving the desired outcomes?
In addition to the good practice of documenting the input information used and developed at each step of
the process, the following good practices, adapted from the UK CIP’s Adaptation Wizard and Preparing for
Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Government, can help to ensure adaptation
plans embody principles of adaptive management and become increasingly relevant and effective over
time as learning is integrated back into the planning.

Review the plan regularly: Consider an annual plan review, or sooner, for example when
an extreme event impacts the community or new information about how climate
change could affect the community comes to light.

Define measures of success that help planners assess whether actions are achieving
desired outcomes. For example, measure whether, and how, actions have increased the
capacity of the community, including its human, built and natural systems, to respond to
climate change. Some potential examples:

Survey residents or review media coverage of how well the community handled its
response to an extreme weather event. Do this on an ongoing basis, so planners can
assess how responses improve over time as new actions are implemented.

Track money saved based on an implemented preparedness action, e.g. flood
management plan;

Review observations on the health of fish and wildlife by experts.

Ensure a feedback loop so the plan is amended as needed. Determine how the results of
a review of the adaptation plan will be incorporated into existing management
processes.

Continually monitor results and other sources for new information.

Climate change adaptation planning is an emerging field and consequently supporting
information and approaches will be evolving over time.
In the Toronto case study, the strategy called for ensuring progress in plan implementation through the
municipal budgeting process. Thus, one of the report’s recommendations was that:
ALL CITY AGENCIES, BOARDS, COMMISSIONS, CORPORATIONS AND DIVISIONS IDENTIFY IN THEIR 2009
BUDGET SUBMISSIONS SPECIFIC ACTIONS AND PROGRAMS THEY PLAN TO UNDERTAKE REGARDING
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION.”
Additional monitoring of Toronto’s adaptation projects would consider the following:
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
Level of public, staff and stakeholder awareness about climate change and its impacts and
support for actions to protect against climate change;

Vitality and perseverance of collaboration between the City, its communities, researchers,
non-governmental organizations and other levels of government on solving climate
change issues;

Technical capacity to assess the risks of climate change;

The extent to which climate change considerations have been incorporated into high level
policies, plans and practical programs in priority impact areas;

The extent to which climate change adaptation strategies reduce stress on vulnerable
systems;

How implemented adaptation strategies worked in extreme weather events.
The report’s authors also noted the need for re-evaluation due to continuing advances in climate
knowledge. In this regard, the report provides:
The climate information that forms the basis for climate adaptation planning will have to be
periodically reassessed. Climate is not static; new information is continually emerging and
projections change. Climate surprises are very likely. Climate change adaptation cannot be a
one-time effort. It is a process that will need to be in place for the foreseeable future.
1.
Planning Tools for Climate Change Adaptation
a)
Statutory tools
Whether a community undertakes a comprehensive approach or works on parallel initiatives, local
planners can use existing statutory tools. Across Canada, local governments derive their land use planning
authority through provincial statutes and regulations. While the specifics vary among provincial
jurisdictions, local governments have the authority to prepare community plans and regulate certain
aspects of development and building through bylaws (e.g., zoning, building and structures). These are the
tools that planners typically use to:

Minimize risks associated with extreme weather events and with the cumulative effects of
climate change;

Protect natural resources and habitats;

Ensure no adverse public health effects;

Build resilience into communities; and

Take advantage of mitigation and adaptation techniques.
b)
Community plans
While some community plans reference climate change within the broader context of sustainability, most
plans lack specific goals, policy statements or implementing actions. This is rapidly changing. Many local
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governments who are currently reviewing and updating their community plans are incorporating specific
directives related to climate change adaptation. Here are two examples:

The City of Ottawa is updating its Official Plan, as part of the Beyond Ottawa 20/20 initiative. With
this work, the City issued a “white paper” entitled: Climate Change and the Official Plan Review.
http://www.ottawa.ca/residents/public_consult/beyond_2020/papers/white/climate_en.html (at
March 2008). The paper provides a local context and identifies opportunities presented through the
Official Plan to “lessen the City’s contribution to climate change (mitigation) and to prepare for the
changes in the environment that are inevitable (adaptation)”. The specific issues discussed are:
- Transportation - measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
- Protection of resource areas and natural systems
- Development - sustainable design and green building measures
- Renewable energy

The District of Central Saanich on Vancouver Island has incorporated climate change into its draft
Official Community Plan, from its fundamental principles, goals and objectives, through to specific
policies. http://www.centralsaanich.ca/__shared/assets/Draft+OCP1655.pdf?method=1 (March
2008). One of nineteen fundamental principles of the plan is to:
[a]ddress the Causes and Impacts of Climate Change. The energy use of industrial, residential
and commercial buildings and motor vehicles is responsible for the majority of green house
gas emissions, the leading cause of climate change. Central Saanich is committed to reducing
green house gas emissions in the community by ensuring greater energy efficiency in new
and retro-fit buildings, including municipal facilities and infrastructure, & by fostering a
reduction in private automobile usage in favour of less polluting forms of transportation.
Adaptation to new conditions caused by climate change, such as sea level rise and increase in
major weather events is also key to addressing climate change.
c)
Zoning bylaws
Provincial statutes vary across Canada, but local governments generally have the authority to regulate
land use and buildings/structures on privately owned land. The primary regulatory tool is the zoning or
land use bylaw. What can be regulated (or prohibited) varies considerably among provinces, and it is
important to understand the authority of the enabling legislation. Zoning bylaws are an effective tool to
direct development away from hazardous conditions (current or anticipated) and sensitive ecosystems.
Many local governments have required building setbacks from watercourses/wetlands in the interest of
environmental protection. But building setbacks could also be used in situations where climate-related
change is anticipated (e.g., rising sea level, higher flood levels). And, building bylaws could be used in
conjunction to require habitable spaces to be a certain elevation in reference to sea level, usually referred
to as MSL (Metres Above Sea Level).
For additional information regarding tools and methods often proposed for adaptation planning in
Canadian communities, see Bizikova et al. (2008).
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H.
CIP Policy on Climate Change
In this last section of the course are set forth excerpts from CIP’s Policy on Climate Change. The document
is found in full at: http://www.cip-icu.ca/_CMS/files/CIP%20Climate%20Change%20Policy_e.pdf. Beyond
familiarizing students with current guidance from CIP, the intent is to spur debate on the multiple and
potentially conflicting roles of planners (champions of sustainable development, promoters of climate
resilience, defenders of science, advocates for social equity or ecological integrity, enablers of economic
development?) and on ways to resolve possible conflicts. The following are excerpts from CIP’s Policy.
Declaration:
The Canadian Institute of Planners (CIP) believes climate change is real and immediate. The impacts of
climate change affect and will continue to affect all aspects of our mission to ensure a sustainable future
and to shape better communities.
Basis of policy
“There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.
Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have increased
markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined
from ice cores spanning many thousands of years.” IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, “Climate Change
2007: Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers”, p. 4.
As the professional body representing 7,000 planners across Canada, CIP knows that the role of planners
is vital in helping Canada and the world meet the challenges of climate change. Planners think holistically
and for the long term, whether strategizing to manage urban growth, protect natural resources or sustain
rural and northern communities. Planners take decisions that influence the way we live – from housing
choice to place of work to mode of transport. In carrying out the planning process, planners educate and
learn from communities and in turn, provide links among politicians, residents, developers, and other
professionals.
In launching this policy, CIP is breaking new ground. In the past, CIP has focused its policy activity on
reacting to government initiatives rather than creating new policy. However, given that climate change
affects every dimension of our profession and adds considerable uncertainty to the planning process, CIP
maintains that all sectors of society must work together, that planners have a significant role, and
believes the time is right to lead our members on this critical issue. CIP’s climate change policy draws
from the fifth core principle established in our strategic plan. This principle commits CIP to “reduce the
rate of climate change, mitigate its effects, and plan for adaptation.”
Statement of goals and objectives
Goal
In acknowledging our share of responsibility to future generations for custodianship of this planet and its
habitats, the Canadian Institute of Planners aims to empower its members to tackle the effects of climate
change.
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Objectives
To achieve this goal, CIP has set the following objectives:
 To increase planners’ capacity to mitigate and adapt to climate change locally, nationally,
and internationally;
 To increase planners’ knowledge about climate change, mitigation techniques, and
adaptation strategies;
 To raise awareness of the links between planning and climate change among its members,
the general public, other professionals, and our international colleagues;
 To build networks of professionals to support collaborative solutions for meeting the
challenges of climate change.
Policy Directives
“Unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural,
managed and human systems to adapt.” IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, Summary
For Policy Makers, p. 20.
CIP endorses the following actions to ensure planners contribute to mitigating and adapting to climate
change:
a. CIP will champion action on climate change policy nationally and internationally.
b. CIP will facilitate the exchange of information between the scientific community and
professional planners to make sure our members have access to the best available
information on climate change, in language that is easily understood.
c. CIP will empower its members to consider climate change in their actions and
recommendations within the broad ambit of planning activities (including for example:
long-range plan preparation; development approval; planning for energy, infrastructure,
and transportation; and resource management) in order to:
i.
minimize risks associated with extreme events and with the cumulative effects of
climate change;
ii.
protect natural resources and habitats;
iii.
ensure no adverse public health effects;
iv.
build resilience into communities; and
v.
take advantage of mitigation and adaptation techniques, whenever possible.
d. Given that mitigation efforts alone cannot avoid further impacts of climate change, CIP
will increase the knowledge and skills amongst its members to develop suitable
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adaptation strategies to enable communities to manage the effects of climate change
and minimize adverse impacts.
In keeping with [these] policies, CIP will support its members by:
 commissioning applied research that addresses climate change challenges from a
planning perspective;
 supporting demonstration projects in climate change mitigation and adaptation
strategies and methods;
 developing and disseminating best-practice recommendations for climate change
mitigation and adaptation planning; and
 designing climate change educational resources for use in continuous professional
learning (CPL) and academic programs
 CIP will work collaboratively with universities and other post-secondary institutions to
ensure climate change is integrated into the curriculum for planners.
 CIP will continue to work with natural resources Canada and environment Canada for
the development and consolidation of reliable data, adaptation tools and mitigation
techniques that are usable at the regional and local level.
 CIP will issue a report card to monitor how well this policy is being implemented.
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IV.
Exercises and instructional activities
1.
Exercise 1 (Voices from the field, a video on impacts)
These two videos provide a good overview of climate change impacts in one area of Canada and the range
of planning related implications and concerns entailed in adaptation planning. Also, they provide tangible
cases for reference and discussion in the activities that follow.
Adapting to Climate Change in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia
(http://ekoscommunications.com/node/683) (12 min).
As part of the Natural Resource Canada funded project on climate change adaptation in the Fraser
Basin of British Columbia, EKOS produced this video designed to stimulate dialogue among local
government representatives, scientists and engineers on how to adapt water related infrastructure.
The video applies peer-to-peer learning by having mayors, councilors and senior policy advisers as the
main deliverers of the message, supported by clips from three highly respected climate research
scientists from University of British Columbia (UBC).
Smaller
Community
Experience:
A
Tale
of
http://www.cbt.org/Initiatives/Climate_Change/action_video.asp (10 min)
Two
Communities.
In this overview of an adaptation planning process, the City of Kimberley and District of Elkford, both
located in eastern BC, share their experience in participating in the Colombia Basin Trust’s
Communities Adapting to Climate Initiative.
2.
Exercise 2 (Getting familiar with adaptation resources)
Refer students to Appendix A (Resources for climate change planners). Divide them into small groups. The
purpose of this activity is to give students the opportunity to scan the appendix and become more familiar
with the array of resources available. To help focus their review and small group discussion invite groups
to identify three resources they might recommend to others. Review and discuss Appendix A in small
groups and ‘report out’ on recommendations.
3.
Exercise 3 (Climate change impacts in a community)
The purpose of this activity is as a ‘warm-up’ to begin to engage students in the discussion of impacts and
preparedness responses. This activity also gives the instructor a chance to gauge the relative experience
of students with the subject matter.

Ask students: “What kinds of impacts can Canadians expect in their community, given its
geographic, urban/rural location?”

Invite them to discuss these with a partner

Ask groups to share the two most important ones with the large group
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
Discuss whether there are commonalities of impacts and community situation

Optional: Invite students to share examples of how their communities are responding to
impacts or preparing for anticipated impacts
4.
Exercise 4 (Identifying key impacts by region)
There are many opportunities in the course to focus on the impacts in the specific communities of
students. This activity provides an opportunity for students to review the range of possible impacts in
different regions of the country.
Divide students into six groups and assign each one of the six regional summaries found in Section D of
this Lecture (above). Each group should be assigned one of the regional summaries. Using the worksheet
below, direct students to identify:

The anticipated change in climate e.g., temperature, precipitation, sea level rise; and

The anticipated impacts, or the “story” about how the community or region would be
effected— i.e., in addition to environmental impacts, also consider economic and social
impacts.

Invite groups to share their summaries, focusing on two or three key findings, to develop
a cross-Canada appreciation of future climate impacts.
Region
Anticipated climate change
Anticipated impacts (socio-economic, biophysical, Infrastructure,
other)
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5.
Exercise 5 (Identifying potential benefits)
The objective of the exercise is to give students a chance to review Table 3 and identify and discuss
potential positive opportunities associated with climate impacts. It is easy to overlook or miss the
opportunities because the risks and threats due to impacts often take precedence.
Form small groups of approximately 3-4 people. Review the table and identify and discuss potential
positive opportunities associated with climate impacts. Report out on the highlights of the discussion.
6.
Exercise 6 (How will communities be impacted?)
The objective of the exercise is to give students a chance to think in some detail about how their
communities might be impacted by climate change. Form small groups of approximately 4 people. Ask the
groups to choose one community. The task is as follows: The group has been asked by the local Planning
Director to do a report on the key climate change related impacts that are effecting, or are likely to effect,
the community and require action. The students should work as a team to collectively paint a picture of
the one or two most pressing climate impacts and issues in the community. Make reference to the tables
in this Lecture (particularly in Section D to complete the report. Identify a member of the group to report
back on key findings.
7.
Exercise 7 (Identifying adaptation strategies)
Ask students to review the following case studies. Focus on the two or three most relevant, or interesting,
to the group. For each case study, identify possible adaptation strategies for the communities. Discuss the
implications of the strategies:
Which are easily implemented in the short term? Which would require a longer time
frame?
Which would be costly and require considerable resources to implement?
Which strategies are related to building knowledge and awareness, and building support
for taking action?
Which strategies involve actions that more directly support adaptation, e.g. changing
land use designations, or disconnecting stormwater run-off from the sanitary sewer?
Alternatively, have small groups of students do this as an exercise out of class and prepare a brief
report on their findings. Ask each group to choose two case studies and carry out the steps described
above, writing up their findings in a brief report.
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8.
Exercise 8 (Planning tools for adaptation)
Divide the class into groups of three. Ask each group to report out their ‘best or most interesting idea’.
The task is as follows. If there were no requirement for a community engagement process, and if planners
did not have to convince senior administrators and elected officials, what planning tool has the greatest
role to play in climate change adaptation planning? Why? If a planner could take council on a field trip to
see some of these ideas in action, where would he or she go? Report out on the best or most interesting
ideas.
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9.
Exercise 9 (Overcoming challenges and barriers)
Divide the class into pairs or groups of three for this discussion. Brief report out on one key finding.
Student Task: There are a few challenges that planners embarking on climate change adaptation
initiatives may face:
Skepticism and negativity;
Competing administrative priorities;
Departmental silos;
Barriers due to jurisdiction and governance;
Lack of staff & resources;
Complexity: this subject area is not simple and clear communication can be a challenge.
Discuss strategies or resources for addressing these challenges.
10.
Exercise 10 (Principles for effective adaptation planning)
The objective of the exercise is to provide students with the opportunity to consider what principles for
effective adaptation planning may be most helpful in their contexts. Divide group into pairs and allow 15
minutes for discussion. Ask groups to report out on one or more principles they would recommend for
use in a community, and why.
Task: If one were to prepare draft principles for a particular planning context, which principles might one
include? Which are unique to adaptation planning? In pairs, review Table 4 in the text above - Ten
Principles of Effective Adaptation Planning, and discuss which ones are most applicable to the context.
What changes or additions might one suggest?
11.
Exercise 11 (Mitigation and adaptation responses)
The purpose of this activity is to further work with these concepts and to assist students to be aware of
these distinctions and opportunities when developing and assessing adaptation options. Divide Group
into groups of three. Use the following to discuss examples of mitigation and adaptation responses.
Task 1: Review Table 6 and the following details on possible climate change responses for a large urban
centre. Discuss and review how some are both mitigating and adaptive.
Green roofs – acts as insulator to reduce heating and cooling needs and greenhouse gas
emissions; reduces the impact of extreme heat events.
Permeable pavement – less hard surface to exacerbate heat absorption; increases capacity
of ground to absorb increased precipitation.
Local food production – reduces GHG emissions because of decreased transportation
requirements; enables communities to be more self sufficient and better prepared during
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local extreme weather events or food supply shortages from other regions and countries
impacted by climate changes.
Expanded Tree Canopy – expanding the tree canopy by planting trees contributes to
absorption of greenhouse gases and provides shade to people in the anticipation of
extreme heat conditions resulting from climate change.
Task 2: Ask students to share examples of climate change responses in their communities that are
adaptive, mitigating or both.
12.
Exercise 12 (Examples of mal-adaption)
The purpose of this activity is prompt a brief discussion on examples of potential maladaptive responses.
Ask the group to suggest further examples of maladaptive responses and discuss the drivers for such
responses and what may be done to arrest and amend such behaviour.
13.
Exercise 13 (Identifying adaptation options)
Select a community and identify a select group of climate change impacts expected there.
1. For climate impacts identified, discuss and identify three or four possible adaptation actions planners
might recommend the Director and/or Council.
2. Briefly report back on best recommendations.
14.
Exercise 14 (Assessing adaptation options)
The objective of this exercise is to allow students the opportunity to consider the range of questions and
criteria that can be used to assess appropriate adaptation options for their context. The criteria used by
Toronto and Kimberley/Elkford are provided as examples and are discussed in the text above.
Toronto: Option selection criteria:
-
The effectiveness of the adaptation action in providing protection for vulnerable populations;
The extent to which proposed adaptation options protect against loss of life or major
economic losses;
Whether the adaptation option reduces stress on vulnerable systems;
The cost of the adaptive action compared to the cost of alternative strategies, or the potential
cost of not acting;
The extent to which adaptation options also reduce greenhouse gas emissions or provide other
benefits that increase the sustainability and livability of the City.
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Kimberley & Elkford: Key criteria for selecting actions:
-
Will the actions meet preparedness goals?
Do the benefits of the action exceed the costs?
Is the action robust under the range of climate change scenarios?
Is the action flexible, and increase flexibility in how a planning area is managed or functions?
Can the action be implemented, and in what time frame?
Student Task:
1. The Planning Director and/or Council has asked for a list of questions/criteria that will be used to
assess and select the best adaptation options among those proposed. Building off the criteria used
by Toronto and Kimberley/Elkford, develop such a list.
2. Report back to the larger group on two priority criteria.
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V.
Suggestions for in-depth exploration
1.
In Depth Exploration Topic 1 (Using PCIC’s regional analysis tool)
Climate models are available online, but are generally not presented for easy consumption. The University
of Victoria’s Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) hosts a Regional Analysis Tool that provides
temperature, precipitation, snow depth change and other projections. It has been designed for use by
climate scientists rather than a public audience, but with a few guidelines planners can find out about
future climate in any area of Canada. This link connects to a help page to guide site visitors through the
process: http://pacificclimate.org/tools/regionalanalysis/. The following notes provide guidelines to using
PCIC’s Regional Analysis Tool for identifying climate change projections for the region.
Opening Page
This is the opening page of PCIC’s Regional Analysis Tool. Note that there are a number of options to help
customize the search for information. The user chooses these in the Data Options section. Note also, that
the Region tab is selected in the output display towards the bottom of the page.
Experiment
The first choice for the user is Experiment. The drop down menu contains a list of all the climate models
that have been run to generate projections. In general, the naming convention is:
-
First part of name = the modeling centre that created the model
Second part of the name = the name of the model
Third part of the name = the IPCC scenario (the particular run of the model).
The page shows one experiment highlighted, the CCCMA_CGCM3 A2-run4.
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This choice will generate a single projection using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’
model called the "Canadian Global Climate Model 3", the fourth run of the model. It is projection based
upon a high emissions scenario.
This Canadian model will reflect more closely Canadian features than other models in the list, such as the
UK or Germany. The UK’s models are identified by HADCM3 or UKMO_HADCM3, and the German models
by ECHAM. American models include the NCAR and GFDL series.
Also in the Experiment list is a choice called “PCIC A2 + B1”. This choice will deliver 30 projections, 15
based on an A2 high emissions scenario, and 15 based on a B1 low emissions scenario. By looking at the
output of all model runs, planners will have a range of possible climate change projections that reflect a
low to high emissions scenario, and roughly suggest a worst/best case projection picture.
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Choosing the Timeslice
The 1961-1990 selection gives historical climate data. The other time choices are for future projections.
These “time slices” are just that — a 30-year slice of time with the named decade in the middle. For
example, the 2050s timeslice includes a time period from 2035 to 2065.
Choosing the Climate Variable
A range of climate variables is possible. Those most commonly used are temperature, precipitation, snow
depth and snow melt. Note that sea level rise is not currently available.
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Choosing Time of Year
It is important to know about the seasonal changes in climate variables. Precipitation may be projected to
increase in winter and decrease in summer, requiring different adaptation responses. The screen shot
shows all seasons selected.
Choosing the Display Options (screen shot in following page)
-
Window — Allows one to choose the area displayed in the Map window.
Region — The region for which the projections are generated.
Note that the user can define a custom region, by using the Select Op drop-down menu to the left of the
screen and choosing Add Point to define the desired area.
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Choosing the Plot Options
There are several options for displaying, or plotting, the projections data, including maps, line graphs, box
plots and data tables. One of the data output, or “plot” options (as named in the PCIC tool), includes
coloured maps. In this screenshot, the map shows projected temperature change for Nunavut for the
2050s timeslice.
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Line Graphs
Select the line graph option by choosing the Scatter Plot tab across the top of the output display, and the
Timeslice tab along the left hand side. Note that the line graphs give projected temperature change for
three timeslices — 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.
The figure at the top left plots the projected mean temperature changes for Nunavut in winter, and is
generated by all A2 scenario model runs.
The figure to the bottom right plots the same information, but is generated by one model run:
CCCMA_CGCM3 A2 run-4.
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Box Plots
Box plots are useful for showing the range of possible projections for many different models and runs.
However, they are not helpful in illustrating the projected temperature change for one model run, as
shown in the right hand figure.
In the left hand diagram, all A2 scenario model runs (all A2x experiments) are used to generate the box
plots. Three timeslices are represented here — 2020s, 2050s, 2080s.
The horizontal lines record the median value of the mean temperature change projections.
The area in the boxes above the median line represents the 25% of the projections that fall above the
median (also called the 25th percentile), while those below the median line represent 25% of the
projections that fall below (also called the 75th percentile). These box plots, therefore, show 50% of all
the projections.
The vertical lines, or “whiskers”, show the range of all 100% of the projections (50% above the median
and 50% below), with the exception of some outlying points, represented by the plus signs.
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Data Tables
Plotting options include a data table. This table illustrates mean temperature change in degrees Celsius
for Nunavut, in all seasons, months and annually, in the 2050s timeslice, for one run of the
CCCMA_CGCM3 model. Data includes the minimum and maximum, the weighted mean (W. Mean) and
the median temperature change.
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VI.
References
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Cohen, SJ(1997). “Scientist-stakeholder collaboration in integrated assessment of climate change: Lessons
from a case study of NW Canada.” Environmental Modeling and Assessment 2:281-293.
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Considerations in Environmental Assessment: General Guidance for Practitioners.” Ottawa, ON:
Federal-Provincial-Territorial Committee on Climate Change and Environmental Assessment.
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report 2009. Ottawa, ON: Federation of Canadian Municipalities.
Gagnon-Lebrun, F and S Agrawala (2006). “Progress on adaptation to climate change in developed
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McCaskey, MB (1974). "A Contingency Approach to Planning: Planning with Goals and Planning without
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Snickars, B Olerup & LO Persson (eds). Burlington, VT: Ashgate.
Snover, AK, L Whitely Binder, J Lopez, E Willmott, J Kay, D Howell, and J Simmonds (2007). Preparing for
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Greater Vancouver. Volumes 1 and 2.” Prepared for Natural Resources Canada. Last accessed Aug.
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TEO (2008). “Ahead of the storm…preparing Toronto for climate change—development of a climate
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Yearley, S (2006). “Bridging the science-policy divide in urban air-quality management: evaluating ways to
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VII.
i
End notes
In addition to ICLEI, there are several global and regional organizations that provide guidance and support to
local governments in their efforts to develop and implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. Two of
them are the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (associated with the Clinton Climate Initiative),
http://www.c40cities.org/, and the United States Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Center,
http://www.usmayors.org/climateprotection/revised/.
In
Europe,
the
Climate
Alliance,
http://www.klimabuendnis.org/, is a network of local authorities active since 1990 with more than 1,500
members. Further, some large cities have developed their own approaches. Kennedy, Ramaswami, et al.
(2009) report that, with regard to mitigation:
[o]ver 500 of ICLEI’s member cities have established GHG baselines using software…. Several larger
cities, including for example, London, Paris, Tokyo and others, have developed their own baselines
using their own methodologies. Eighteen European urban areas, including eight capital regions,
have been studied using the Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol [(GRIP)] … GRIP has also
been used for Scotland and Sacramento, California…. The approaches used to establish GHG
emissions in these studies are essentially adaptations or simplifications of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines.
ii
iii
Another adaptation planning model was set forth in a report by the Clean Air Partnership (CAP), a Toronto
area consortium. In that report, CAP surveyed the adaptation activities of several leading cities around the
world (CAP 2007). Their adaptation methodology is based on that review and on a report authored by the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (Gagnon-Lebrun & Agrawala 2006). ICLEI
also promulgates an adaptation framework, prepared in conjunction with the University of Washington and
King County, Washington (US), and published in 2007 in an influencial guide entitled “Preparing for Climate
Change: A guidebook for local, regional and state governments” Snover, A. K., L. W. Binder, et al. (2007).
Preparing for climate change, a guidebook for local, regional, and state governmetns. Oakland, CA, ICLEI Local
Governments for Sustainability.
.
As an example of the overlap in approaches, the following is the process The City of Toronto outlines in
Ahead of the Storm… Preparing Toronto for Climate Change: Development of a Climate Adaptation Strategy
(2008). Note that this process involves all city departments (corresponding step from the CIP model is in
brackets):
The development of a comprehensive adaptation strategy should involve the following steps:
a.
Create the internal mechanisms and processes for the development of a comprehensive, multi-year
adaptation process; [Step 1 above]
b.
Engage the public, business and other stakeholder groups; [Step 1]
c.
Incorporate climate change adaptation into city policies and high level plans; [Step 1/5]
d.
Use best available science to analyze how climate is changing locally and what the future is likely to
bring; [Step 3/4]
e.
Develop a citywide inventory of Toronto’s vulnerabilities to climate change; [Step 4]
f.
Conduct a risk assessment to identify priority impacts requiring adaptation action; [Step 4]
g.
Identify and assess adaptation options to reduce the risk; [Step 5]
h.
Develop and implement climate change adaptation strategies; [Step 5/6]
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i.
iv
Monitor climate change, evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation initiatives in protecting the City
from continuing changes, and adjust strategies when necessary.” [Step 6]
The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change,
by Kurt M. Campbee et al., Centre for Strategic and International Studies (2007) Available at
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/071105_ageofconsequences.pdf.
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