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Chapter 13: Climate Change & Ozone Loss I. Climate Change A. The Greenhouse Effect is natural. 1) First described by Swedish physicist/chemist, Svante Arrhenius in 1896 B. Global Warming 1) Enhanced greenhouse effect due to human activity Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, etc. C. A little history… 1) Ice Core Samples: Gas trapped in ancient glaciers tested for air compositions *Increasing CO2 levels correlate with: • Rise in air temperature • Increased fossil fuel use • Deforestation 2) Since 1861… • Avg. global temperature has risen 1°F • Sea level has increased 4-10 inches • 1990’s and 2000- 2009= warmest decades (2012 = warmest year) 3) Other signs… • • • • Unusual weather patterns (ex. El Niño) Shrinking glaciers CO2 levels higher than in last 420,000 years 20th century was warmest in last 1,000 years D. Main Greenhouse Gases: Warming Potential (GWP) InGlobal other words… describes gas’ warming CO2aequivalent (CO“strength” 2e) Abundance 1) CO2 GWP of CO2 = 1.0 (the standard) 2) CH4 GWP of CH4 = 21.0 3) N2O 4) CFCs (synthetic chlorofluorocarbon) GWP 5) PFCs (synthetic perfluorocarbon) 6) SF5CF3 (synthetic trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride) Current Greenhouse Gas Emissions United States Global Source: IPCC (2007) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Source United States Global Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry in the United States is a net sink and offsets approximately 15% of these greenhouse gas emissions. Source: IPCC (2007) Greenhouse Gas Sources of Atmospheric Increase c & plants) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Combustion (fossil fuels • Deforestation c Methane (CH4) • • • • Nitrous Oxide (N2) • Combustion of fossil fuels c • Fertilizers (& production c of) Fluorinated Gases • Refrigerants (AC’s, refrigerators, etc.) c • Industrial processes c Agriculture (rice paddies, c cows, etc.) Natural gas leaks c Anaerobic decomposition (*landfills) c Melting permafrost (positive feedback loop) c 2008 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and some Industrial Processes (million metric tons of CO2) Source: National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2008. Global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuels 1990-2008 Source of data: Boden, T.A., G. Marland, and R.J. Andres (2010). Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010. Total U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990-2010 All emission estimates from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 19902010 . E. Looking Towards the Future 1) Scientific Consensus: It’s time to change! (see p. 306) • Established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organization & the United Nations Environment Program • Over 2,000 scientists from 195 countries • • Signed 1997; first commitment 2008 Amendment 2012 Cooperating countries commit to reduce GHG emissions 2008-2012: 5% below 1990 levels 2013-2020: 18% below 1990 levels Mechanisms: International Emissions Trading Clean Development Mechanism Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol participation map (commitment period: 2013-2020) Parties; Annex I & II countries with binding targets Parties; Developing countries without binding targets States not Party to the Protocol Signatory country with no intention to ratify the treaty, with no binding targets Countries that have denounced the Protocol, with no binding targets Parties with no binding targets in the second period, which previously had targets E. Looking Towards the Future 2) Reducing Greenhouse Warming (see p. 313-316) • Higher energy efficiency • Change/tighten government regulations on fossil fuels & emissions • Alternate/renewable energy sources • Harvest trees sustainably (sustainable yield) • Carbon Dioxide Capture & Sequestration Preparing for the effects of global warming… Also… Use & engineer drought-resistant plants II. Ozone Depletion (see p 321) A. Summary of CFC/Ozone Reactions: CCl3F + UV Cl + O3 ClO + O Cl + CCl2F ClO + O2 Cl + O2 UV CFCl32 Cl Cl C F Cl O O O O O O O O O O ClO O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B. Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODCs) Include… *Released by human activities since the 1950s 1) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) a) Released from A/Cs, refrigerators, etc. b) Propellants (spray cans); the US banned use for this purpose in 1986 c) Produced while making/burning plastics d) Very persistent 65-385 years 2) Other ODCs: a) Halon: fire extinguishers 2) Other ODCs: b) Methyl Bromide: pest fumigant 2) Other ODCs: c) Carbon Tetrachloride (CCL4): used to be in fire extinguishers and solvent 2) Other ODCs: d) Methyl Chloroform/TCE (trichloroethene): dry cleaning solvent 2) Other ODCs: e) HCl: released by space shuttles Good thing we cancelled the program! C. Seasonal Ozone Thinning 1) Thinning is most severe over the poles *Greatest over Antarctica 2) Why seasonal? Polar Winter: • No direct solar radiation • Chlorine (from CFCs) trapped in the polar vortex Polar Spring: • Direct solar radiation • Cl released & reacts with ozone • 40%-50% ozone loss Polar Summer: • Vortex weakens • CFCs & Cl disperse • Ozone rebuilds Which month? D. Effects on Human Health 1) More sun burns …I was in the Bahamaaas! 2) Eye Cataracts 3) Immune System Suppression 4) Skin Cancer (p. 321) a) Squamous Cell Carcinoma • Upper epidermis • Least dangerous but can metastasize b) Basal Cell Carcinoma • Most common • Curable if treated early c) Melanoma • Cancerous melanocytes (pigment cells) • Metastasizes quickly • Most deadly (kills ¼ of victims) *Mostly caused by UV-A E. Environmental Effects 1) Reduced crop yield (up to $2.5 billion loss/year!) 2) Reduced forest productivity 3) Reduced phytoplankton productivity Increased UV exposure F. Solutions 1) Substitutions for CFCs a) HCFCs: less reactive/persistent b) HFCs: non-reactive with ozone *DuPont took 14 years to change production! 2) Montreal Protocol (1987 – present) a) Goal: Reduce ODC emissions/find alternatives b) All UN recognized nations have ratified the treaty