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Brodnax Concept 19-1: The overwhelming scientific consensus is that the earth’s atmosphere is warming rapidly, mostly because of human activities, and that this will lead to significant climate change during this century. Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen – 78% Oxygen – 21% Others – 1% Argon, CO2, Neon, Helium, Krypton, Hydrogen, Xenon Nitrogen and Oxygen do not absorb significant radiation (heat), but some of the others do The Greenhouse Gases (the ones that get hot) Water Vapor- H2O Carbon Dioxide- CO2 Ozone- O3 Methane- CH4 Nitrous Oxide- N2O Chlorofluorocarbons- CFCs Without the natural greenhouse effect, the earth would be cold and uninhabitable Human Activities Emit Large Quantities of Greenhouse Gases Since the Industrial Revolution… CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions are higher Main sources: agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil fuels There is a correlation of rising CO2 and CH4 levels with rising global temperatures Scientists use ice cores to study past atmospheric conditions Estimated changes in the average global temperature of the atmosphere near the earth’s surface over different periods of time The Big Melt Conclusions of the 2007 IPPC Report: In 2007, AL Gore shared the Nobel Peace Prize with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for alerting the world to the reality and dangers of global warming and its effects on the world’s climate. Gore said, “…the Earth has a fever. And the fever is rising…We are what is wrong, and we must make it right.” Between 1906-2005, the average global surface temperature has risen about 0.74˚C. Most has taken place since 1980. Annual greenhouse gas emissions from human activities rose 70% between 1970-2005 and average CO2 levels are higher than they have been in 800,000 years. Over the past 50 years, arctic temps have risen almost twice as fast as average temps in the rest of world. Glaciers and floating sea ice are melting and shrinking at increasing rates, rainfall patterns are changing, and extreme and prolonged drought is increasing. During the last century, the world’s average sea level rose by 10-20 cm, mostly from runoff from melting ice and warm-water expansion Sea Levels are rising Expansion of warm water Melting of land-based ice What about Greenland? Areas of glacial ice melting in Greenland during summer increased dramatically between 1982 and 2007. If this net melting of Greenland’s land-based ice continues over a number of decades, the world’s average sea level will rise sharply. Areas of Florida will flood if average sea levels rise by only 1 meter GREENLAND Atlantic Ocean Global Warming could have severe consequences Worst-case scenarios: Ecosystems collapsing Low-lying cities flooded Wildfires in forests Prolonged droughts: grasslands become dust bowls More destructive storms Glaciers shrinking; rivers drying up Premature extinction of many species Shifting in areas where crops can be grown Deaths from heat waves will increase Increase in air pollution, more O3 More insects, microbes, toxic molds and fungi Governments can enter into International Climate Negotiations Climate stabilization wedges: 15 ways to cut CO2 emissions The Kyoto Protocol (1997 International Treaty) Goal- to reduce emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O by 2012 to levels of 1990 Trading greenhouse gas emissions among countries Not signed by the U.S. • President G.W. Bush’s reasons • It would hurt the economy • Did not require reductions in China, India, Brazil or Indonesia • However, a majority of Americans feel we should have signed In 2005, countries began negotiating the second phase that is supposed to go into effect after 2012. Australia signed up for the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol that would require reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 5% below year 2000 levels by 2020. Ways to prepare for the possible long-term harmful effects of climate change Develop crops that need less water Waste less water Move people away from low-lying coastal regions Prohibit new construction on low-lying coastal areas or build houses on stilts Stockpile 1-5 year supply of staple foods Move hazardous material storage tanks away from coast Expand existing wildlife reserves toward poles Concept 19-4: Widespread use of certain chemicals has reduced ozone levels in the stratosphere, which allows for more harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the earth’s surface. Ozone Thinning A layer of ozone in the lower stratosphere keeps about 95% of the sun’s harmful ultraviolet (UV-A and UV-B) radiation from reaching earth’s surface. Measurements reveal thinning of the ozone everywhere except for the tropics with the most loss over Antarctica and the Arctic. The depletion varies with altitude, location and o season. When the seasonal thinning ends each year, huge masses of ozone-depleted air above Antarctica flow northward, where it lingers over Australia, New Zealand, South America and South Africa. This raises biologically-damaging UV-B levels in o these areas by 3-10% and in some years as much as 20%. Arctic’s ozone-depleted air which flows south to Europe, North America, and Asia. Ozone-Destroying Chemicals CFCs: A Closer Look Less severe ozone thinning happens with the o • • • Chlorofluorocarbons: CFCs (Freon’s) • Chemically unreactive, odorless, nonflammable, nontoxic, noncorrosive compounds that were used in refrigerants (AC/fridge) and as propellants in aerosol cans Halons & Hydrobromoflurocarbons (HBFCs) – fire extinguishers Methyl Bromide (fumigant) Hydrogen Chloride (space shuttle) Cleaning solvents: carbon tetrachloride, etc… How CFCs affect Ozone Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC), a measure of atmospheric CFCs • • CFCs are persistent in the atmosphere Rise into the stratosphere over 1120 years Break down under high-energy UV radiation • Halogens produced accelerate the breakdown of O3 to O2 Each CFC molecule can last 65-385 years 1988: DuPont stopped producing CFCs Relationship between UV and Skin Cancer We can REVERSE Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Stop producing all ozone-depleting chemicals 60–100 years of recovery of the O3 layer Adhere to the international treaties that ban such chemicals: 1987: Montreal Protocol- cut CFC emissions by 35% by year 2000 1992: Copenhagen Protocolaccelerated the phase-out of ozonedepleting chemicals Ozone protocols: prevention is the key