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The UKCIP experience: Application of scenarios in I, A & V assessments AIACC Intensive Training Course, Tyndall Centre, UEA, 16 March 2002 UK Climate Impacts Programme Dr Richenda Connell UK Climate Impacts Programme Scope • Introduction to the Programme • Core tools for studies • Application of scenarios in sub-UK scoping studies and sectoral studies UK Climate Impacts Programme What is UKCIP? • Funded by the UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) since 1997 • Overall aim is: to establish a framework for stakeholderled research on the impacts of climate change in the UK at a regional and national level based on common tools and datasets UK Climate Impacts Programme What is UKCIP? • Helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change and plan appropriate responses • Links research and decision-making (local - national level) UK Climate Impacts Programme Structure of UKCIP • • • • • Run by a Programme Office of 6 staff Overseen by DEFRA and high level Steering Committee Advised by Panel of climate change impacts experts User Forum provides input from stakeholders UKCIP helps to initiate, manage and integrate two types of studies in a common framework: – integrated assessments at a sub-UK level – single sector assessments at a national level UK Climate Impacts Programme UK Climate Impacts Programme What UKCIP provides: integration • • • • Common tools and datasets for studies UKCIP on study steering committees Guidance for research teams Support throughout the study - methodological guidance, reviewing reports, etc. • Dissemination of information from studies UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP tools UK Climate Impacts Programme Tools for integrated assessment • Climate change scenarios (UKCIP98, UKCIP02) • Socio-economic scenarios (2001) • Datasets (soils, land cover, designated sites etc.) quality assurance, integration, GIS • Risk and uncertainty in decision-making (forthcoming) • Methodology for costing the impacts of climate change (forthcoming) • All tools and data funded by DEFRA UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP98 climate scenarios • Developed for UKCIP by Hadley Centre, Met Office & CRU, UEA • 4 scenarios to represent uncertainty in future emissions and climate models • Timescales: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s • Grid boxes 350 x 250km • Downscaled to 10km by simple interpolation UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP98 scenarios example: Change in mean winter (DJF) precipitation (%) 2020s UK Climate Impacts Programme 2050s 2080s Percentage of years experiencing certain climate extremes across England and Wales for the medium-high scenario Mean temperature A hot ‘1997-type’August A warm ‘1997-type’ year Precipitation Summer rainfall below 50% of average A two-year precipitation below 90% of average UK Climate Impacts Programme Present 2020s 2050s 2080s 2 6 15 59 32 85 40 99 1 7 12 10 12 11 14 6 Source: Hadley Centre and UEA Storm surges • Change in estimated 1/100yr return periods for varying sea level rise • Small SLR corresponds to a big change in the return period of storm surges UK Climate Impacts Programme UKCIP98 scenarios CD-ROM Analysis by sector: >120 licensed users UK Climate Impacts Programme ‘Water’ includes river flooding, water quality, water resources UKCIP02 climate scenarios Improvements over UKCIP98: • Downscaling using the Regional Climate Model – more geographical detail (50km resolution) – improved prediction of extremes (daily statistics) • Based on the latest Hadley Centre global models – better representation of storm tracks • Use the full range of new emissions scenarios – IPCC SRES scenarios of GHG and sulphur UK Climate Impacts Programme Change in winter rainfall by 2080s HADLEY GCM UK Climate Impacts Programme HADLEY RCM How uncertainty is incorporated into UKCIP climate scenarios (1) • • • • UKCIP98 and UKCIP02 both have four scenarios No ‘best guess’ No probabilities UKCIP98 incorporate emissions uncertainty and uncertainty about climate sensitivity • UKCIP02 include emissions uncertainty only • Recommend using other models too UK Climate Impacts Programme How uncertainty is incorporated into UKCIP climate scenarios (2) • Four scenarios are ensemble means • Examine individual ensemble members to understand natural climate variability* vs. human-induced climate change • For temperature, human effect dominates • For precipitation, 2020s, intra-ensemble range ensemble mean change UK Climate Impacts Programme * NB These ensembles reflect internal oceanatmosphere variability, not changes in solar or volcanic forcing Guidance on use of scenarios • In-depth / quantitative studies for developing adaptation strategies - recommend all 4 scenarios and other models • Scoping studies - consider sensitivity to High/Low scenarios • Avoid using one ‘best guess’ scenarios (UKCIP98 medium-high) • Explore natural variability too • Understand relative uncertainty of different variables UK Climate Impacts Programme Cascade of uncertainty • • • • • • • • CO2 concentration Global-mean sea level Global-mean temperature Regional temperatures Regional temperature extremes Regional precipitation Cloud cover Climatic variability / extremes UK Climate Impacts Programme High confidence Low confidence UKCIP socio-economic scenarios Autonomy Governance ‘NATIONAL’ ENTERPRISE Consumerism LOCAL STEWARDSHIP Community CONVENTIONAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY WORLD MARKETS UK Climate Impacts Programme Values Interdependence Selected indicators of the UKCIP SES in the 2020s Economic Development GDP (average growth 1995-2025) Planning and Built Environment Average household size Land use (%) agricultural forest, woodland and other urban and not specified Agriculture Total agricultural area of which under agricultural production of which other (set aside, roads etc.) Organic farming % of area under agricultural production Water River quality (% classified as good) biologically chemically Biodiversity Area of Sites of Special Scientific Interest Coastal Zone Management6 Zones protected by coastal defences Formerly protected areas flooded or eroded as a result of 'managed retreat' after the mid 1990s UK Climate Impacts Programme Today (mid 1990s) 2020s (linear) 'National' Enterprise Local Stewardship World Markets Global Sustainability +2 % p.a. +2 % p.a. + 1.75 % p.a. + 1.25 % p.a. + 3 % p.a. + 2.25 % p.a. 2.4 persons 2.2 persons 2.4 persons 2.6 persons 2.0 persons 2.2 persons 75 % 10 % 15 % 72.5 % 11 % 16.5 % 73 % 10 % 17 % 76 % 9% 15 % 71 % 11 % 18 % 71 % 13 % 16 % 18,500,000 ha 18,000,000 ha 500,000 ha 17,500,000 ha 17,000,000 500,000 ha 18,000,000 ha 17,500,000 ha 500,000 ha 19,000,000 ha 18,750,000 ha 250,000 ha 16,500,000 ha 16,000,000 ha 500,000 ha 17,500,000 ha 17,000,000 ha 500,000 ha 1% no stable trend 0% 40 % 3% 20 % 93% 63% improving improving 85 % 50 % 95 % 65 % 90 % 60 % 95 % 75 % 2,000,000 ha 3,800,000 ha 1,500,000 ha 4,500,000 ha 2,500,000 ha 5,500,000 ha 235,000 ha 2,500 ha 220,000 ha 10,000 ha 240,000 ha 0 ha 225,000 ha 15,000 ha 240,000 ha -- Data for studies • • • • • • • • • • • Climate scenarios Socio-economic scenarios Land cover Topography Soils Geology Designated sites (SSSI etc.) Administrative boundaries Sea level rise Agri-environmental zones (NVZs, ESAs) Agricultural census data UK Climate Impacts Programme All data integrated and analysed via GIS UKCIP studies UK Climate Impacts Programme Stages of climate change impact and adaptation studies Stage Central question Is this an issue? Issue attention Stakeholder engagement Issue identification What are the issues? Priority setting What are the priorities? Impact assessment How serious are the expected impacts? What options should be adopted? Adaptation evaluation UK Climate Impacts Programme Research method Extreme scenarios Observed trends Expert opinion Research synthesis Expert opinion Stakeholder interviews Regional interpretation of reports Vulnerability profiles Expert elicitation Criteria rating/ranking Workshop processes Formal modelling Linked sector models Decision analysis Risk assessment UKCIP progress Workshops Meetings Presentations Sub-UK scoping studies DEFRA Nature Conservation Policy Review REGIS, MONARCH Risk and uncertainty guidelines being developed Funders of UKCIP studies CCMS - Plymouth Marine Laboratory East Midlands Link The National Trust The National Trust for Scotland Peak District National Park The Royal Horticultural Society Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Surrey Wildlife Trust Sustainability North West Universities of Exeter and Plymouth WWF-UK. UK Climate Impacts Programme The Scottish Executive National Assembly for Wales Department of the Environment Northern Ireland, Northern Ireland Environment and Heritage Service, Dúchas The Heritage Service, National Parks and Wildlife (Republic of Ireland) Blaby and Boston District Councils, Cheshire, Cornwall, Derbyshire, Hampshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Nottinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex County Councils, Countryside Agency Countryside Council for Wales Department of Health DETR Wildlife and Countryside Directorate English Heritage English Nature Environment Agency Farming and Rural Conservation Agency Forestry Commission Government Offices for the East Midlands, North West England, South East England, South West England and West Midlands North West Regional Association North West Regional Chamber MAFF Scottish Natural Heritage UKWIR Acordis Anglian Water Arkleton Trust Association of British Insurers AXA Insurance, Carlton TV Country Life Magazine Duchy of Cornwall, East Midlands Airport Manchester Airport Marsh UK Ltd Midlands Environment Business Club NatWest Bank North West Water Notcutts PROSPER Rolls Royce plc Severn Trent Water South West Water SWEB SWEL Tarmac plc Thames Water Toyota UK TXU Europe Power Ltd Wessex Water Westcountry Television Westcountry Tourist Board Wilkinson Current status of sub-UK scoping studies Scotland scoping study completed December 1999. Further studies underway. Northern Ireland scoping study complete. To be launched shortly Scoping study to be undertaken North East England conference held May 2001 Scoping study initiated / underway Yorkshire and Humberside scoping study underway. Conference held Scoping study completed Gaps Integrated assessment underway. Coverage to be extended North West England scoping study completed December 1998. Funding being sought for next steps. East Midlands scoping study completed July 2000. Study to be completed REGIS study complete in North West England and East Anglia. West Midlands scoping study underway Wales scoping study completed February 2000. UK Climate Impacts Programme South West England: Conferences held December 1999 (Cornwall) and January 2001 (Cheltenham). Scoping study underway Gaps in regional coverage to be filled. Eastern region study at inception London scoping study underway. South East England scoping study completed November 1999. Regional co-ordinator appointed by SECCP to take forward next stage work. Features of sub-UK scoping studies • Review of existing information by literature review and stakeholder consultation - not original research • Undertaken by (local) universities, consultants • Value for money - ca. £50K and quick - ca. 9 months • Technical reports • Short reports - useful for policy-makers and good communications tools - capture attention of regional media • Launch at high-profile conferences UK Climate Impacts Programme Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (1) • Used to present information simply (visually) to stakeholders, to elicit their opinions about impacts during consultation exercises • Stakeholders respond to broad directions of change, rather than detail • Stakeholders look for within-region differences - smaller scale than UKCIP98 grid size UK Climate Impacts Programme Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (2) • Consultants compare scenarios data for region with impacts literature, and draw conclusions on regional impacts • Tendency to use one ‘best guess’ scenario where more information is available (UKCIP98 medium-high) • Downscaling used in Wales (RCM data) and East Midlands (RCM and statistical downscaling data) studies UK Climate Impacts Programme Use of climate scenarios in subUK scoping studies (3) Time horizons: • 2020s, 2050s most commonly used • Even 2020s is too distant for business sector • 2080s perceived as having little relevance to most decision-makers UK Climate Impacts Programme Contrasting areas: Scotland and south east England scoping studies Scotland South east England •Increased risk of flooding and sea level rise with detrimental impacts on land transport and marine operations •Warmer temperatures bring fewer cold deaths in winter •Impacts of changes in ocean currents on salmon, sea trout •Forestry should benefit from increased growth rates •Region could face water shortages unless planning measures take climate change into account •New crops possible, such as soya, maize, sunflowers, navy beans •Business and property on coast vulnerable to SLR •Low river flows could affect water quality in value chalk streams •Ground subsidence of properties on clay-based soils UK Climate Impacts Programme Headline impacts from sub-UK/ regional scoping studies • • • • • • Flooding (rivers and coasts) could worsen significantly Water resources under stress and water quality threatened Changing countryside Many businesses are not aware of climate change impacts Extreme weather events are key Integrated assessments are needed UK Climate Impacts Programme REGIS • Integrated regional assessment • East Anglia & north west England • Used climate and socio-economic scenarios • Funded by DEFRA and UKWIR AGRICULTURE Yields, profitability & land use (SRI) BIODIVERSITY Ecosystems, species & habitats (ECI) MODELS & INTERACTIONS WATER quantity, quality & flooding (SSLRC) SCENARIOS Climate and socio-economic change (All) COASTAL ZONE Sea level rise, flooding & erosion (FHRC) GIS DATABASE Model inputs & outputs, landscape characteristics (UCL) STAKEHOLDERS (UMIST/UM) UK Climate Impacts Programme INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT (All) REGIS model linkages Coastal flooding risk Available land Agricultural land use Agricultural run-off Cropping model Optimisation model Hydrology: Groundwater recharge Species movement Water quality Leached N River flows Biodiversity: River flows Habitats Available land Core data for all models: • climate and soc-econ scenarios UK Climate Impacts Programme River flooding risk • soils • land cover • topography Use of scenarios in REGIS (1) • Coupling climate (CC) and socio-economic scenarios (SES) generates 120 potential model runs - too many! • Decided which combinations of scenarios to use at stakeholder workshop • Used UKCIP98 Low and UKCIP98 High CC scenarios (unintelligently downscaled to 10x10km grid) alone - to understand climate-only effects • Also used UKCIP98 Low CC + Global Sustainability SES and UKCIP98 High CC + Regional Enterprise SES - for 2050s UK Climate Impacts Programme Use of scenarios in REGIS (2) • Used UKCIP98 CC - average monthly changes, so don’t know about impacts of extreme events • Took UKCIP SES and derived regional quantified SES out to 2050s, using expert opinion - very difficult to justify numbers, but have a big effect on the model outputs • Hence difficult to quantify the relative importance of climate vs. socio-economic change on systems • SES used as input data only - so limited capacity to deal with adaptation strategies and feedbacks in complex systems (e.g. changing agricultural prices) UK Climate Impacts Programme REGIS - Socio-economic scenarios Non-spatial variables - crop yields & prices, subsidies etc. Spatial variables - future housing patterns, urban areas, designated conservation sites, agri-environment schemes etc. Informed judgement Current SSSI’s in E Anglia UK Climate Impacts Programme Future ?? Distribution of land use in NW England 1995 NWest 1995 Regional Enterprise Regional Enterprise UK Climate Impacts Programme 2050 high 2050High Climate only 2050 low Global Sustainability 2050Low Climate only Legend Global sustainability Wwheat Wbarley Sbarley Soats Pots Pots100 Pots200 Sbeet SBeet100 SBeet200 Dpeas WOSR SOSR Wbeans Sbeans Linseed Sunflowers Fmaize Ley Permgrass S-side REGIS - lessons learned • Assessments should develop internally consistent, "integrated scenarios" - would reduce number of model runs • Should include impacts of extreme climatic events • SES should be placed in a national framework, so validity of assumptions made at regional level can be verified • Funders and contractors need to assign sufficient resources to SES if they are to be developed within future projects UK Climate Impacts Programme MONARCH • Studies direct impacts of climate change on wildlife and geomorphological features in Britain and Ireland UK Climate Impacts Programme MONARCH climate data MONARCH used UKCIP98 monthly mean values for: mean monthly T no. of rain days monthly PET mean monthly windspeed sum of May and June rainfall growing degree days (>5oC) absolute maximum T minimum monthly T total monthly rainfall (PPT) PPT-PET mean monthly sunshine max T in warmest month absolute minimum T Important climatic data not available from UKCIP98: no. days with snow / sleet storms UK Climate Impacts Programme max. wind speed and direction intensity of rainfall events SPECIES model: in REGIS and MONARCH • Uses a neural net to predict future climate space for species • Advantages - robust, copes with variety of data; can identify non-linear change Training: Current European species’ distributions UK Climate Impacts Programme Change in UK and Ireland species’ distributions SPECIES modelling Potamageton filiformis (Slender-leaved pondweed) 1. Training of neural Net Actual distribution UK Climate Impacts Programme Neural net simulated current distribution Coenonympha tullia (Large heath butterfly) 2. Simulation 2020s Low 2050s Low Now (validation) UK Climate Impacts Programme 2020s High 2050s High MONARCH - key findings • Warmer weather will extend range of many species • Vulnerable species, in the mountains of north Wales and Scotland could face extinction within 50 years • Nature conservation will need to evolve with the changing climate - a more forward-looking and dynamic approach will be needed • Accommodating species movements and displacements will require greater emphasis on wildlife management in the wider countryside UK Climate Impacts Programme New UKCIP studies • Built environment - several studies with common data needs which are beyond 50km scale and want them to work together looking at possibility of common downscaling • MarClim - using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for first time UK Climate Impacts Programme Guidance on handling risk and uncertainty in decision-making Climate change issue identification Information gathering Identify problem Climate change research, monitoring Establish objectives Monitoring Options appraisal Climate change application Implementation Risk analysis Decision (preferred option) UK Climate Impacts Programme Climate change policy Identify options Adaptation strategies Vulnerability assessment Climate change scenarios, impacts assessment, uncertainties Methodology for costing climate change impacts • For use by non-economists to perform ‘desk-top’ climate change costing analyses at a local/regional scale, disaggregated by sector • Economic theory is kept to a minimum • Valuation techniques are outlined in a ‘step-by-step’ manner and illustrated with numerical examples UK Climate Impacts Programme Conclusions: use of scenarios in UKCIP studies • Use (rightly) varies according to study type and purpose • Users will always want finer detail, but may not exploit the data fully • Studies encounter resource limitations on how many scenarios can be used • Natural variability is being forgotten • Socio-economic scenarios are hard to use, but important UK Climate Impacts Programme Conclusions: benefits of the UKCIP approach • Use of common tools in studies ensures consistent approach • Conducting studies in a common framework provides a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts • Translates a global problem into a local reality • Gives decision-making “ownership” of the climate change issue • Delivers information for regional and local planning, and for national level policy making • Everyone can benefit from the partnership structure UK Climate Impacts Programme