Download 2. Global climate change

Item 5 - Appendix
Report of Director of UK Climate Impacts Programme
Climate change in the UK: An overview of climate scenarios and the work
of the UK Climate Impacts Programme
1.
Introduction
A considerable amount is now known about the anticipated impacts of climate change. The
UKCIP98 climate change scenarios suggest that the UK will, in the long term, experience increases in
temperature, sea level rise, precipitation, heavy winter rainfall in most parts of the UK, and decreased
summer rainfall in the south and east. We are also expected to see an increase in the occurrence of
extreme weather events, which is of concern to many decision-makers. Although the disruption to
infrastructure caused by the floods of autumn 2000 is fresh in the memory, severe droughts in 1995
and 1997 also caused many problems.
The paper provides an outline of the UKCIP98 climate scenarios (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998) and
explains the structure of the next set of scenarios to be published in Spring 2002. An overview of the
work of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) will also be presented, and key findings from
first phase studies summarised. The paper concludes with a discussion of next step work for UKCIP
(including a scoping study for London) in helping prepare a UK response to climate change.
2.
Global climate change
The Earth’s climate system has changed, both globally and regionally, partly due to human activities
(IPCC, 2001). Since 1860 the Earth has warmed about 0.6oC with the last two decades being the
warmest of the last century. Land areas have warmed more than the oceans, with the greatest warming
occurring at high latitudes. Precipitation patterns have changed, and some regions have seen an
increase in heavy precipitation events. Sea levels have risen 10-20cm since 1990, most non-polar
glaciers have retreated and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has decreased.
These changes are set to continue. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects
that, in the absence of climate change policies, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases that
warm the atmosphere will increase significantly during the next century. Climate models show that
this will cause the Earth to warm by 1.4 to 5.8oC between 1990 and 2100 (IPCC, 2001;
www.ipcc.ch/press/COP6.5/COP-6-bis.htm). Such changes in the temperature of our atmosphere will
trigger a number of changes in our climate:
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global precipitation will increase, with some areas getting wetter and others drier;
most land areas will experience more heavy precipitation events;
sea levels are likely to rise by 8-88 cm between 1990 and 2100;
more extreme weather events may occur, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, pest
outbreaks, and tropical cyclones may become more intense.
Climate change scenarios for the UK
To determine how global climate change will be manifest in the UK, the Government commissioned
experts to develop a set of climate change scenarios for the UK. Produced by the Met. Office’s
Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in 1998, the UKCIP98
scenarios describe how the climate of the UK is likely to change over the next 100 years (Hulme and
Jenkins, 1998).
These scenarios have been used as a core input in all studies conducted under the broad umbrella of
the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) to determine what climate change will mean for the
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UK at a regional and national level. Key features of the scenarios will now be described. The structure
of UKCIP will then be outlined and key findings from the application of the UKCIP98 scenarios in
UKCIP studies will be summarised.
The UKCIP98 scenarios comprise four scenarios (low, medium-low, medium-high, high) for three
30-year times slices centred on the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Collectively these scenarios capture the
broad range of future climates that might be experienced over the coming century. Before outlining
what these climates look like, it is important to note that differing degrees of confidence can be
attached to each of the variables. For instance, we know that concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere will increase in the near future. We can therefore be very confident that the temperature of
the atmosphere will increase and that sea levels will rise, as the oceans absorb heat from the
atmosphere and the warmed water expands. We have less confidence, however, in what those
changes will mean at a regional level (as climate models which generate scenarios are run at the
global scale), and for ‘derived’ climate variables, such as cloud cover and wind speed, which are more
difficult to model.
In summary, the UKCIP98 scenarios project that by 2080:
 annual average temperatures will rise by 1.1 – 3.2oC (Figure 1)
 summers may be 20% drier and winters 20% wetter (Figures 2 and 3)
 summer droughts and winter flooding will be more common
 a 1997-type warm year will become the norm, rather than the exception (see Table 1)
 sea levels may rise by 83cm in the south-east of England
 peak windspeeds may increase.
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These projections are broadly in keeping with those a global level, and show that climate change is a
critical issue for the UK.
4.
The work of the UK Climate Impacts Programme
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) was established by the former Department of the
Environment (now the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs - DEFRA) in 1997. The
aim of UKCIP is to deliver an integrated, stakeholder-led assessment of impacts of climate change in
the UK. UKCIP helps organisations at a regional and national level to assess their vulnerability to
climate change so they can plan appropriate adaptation responses. (For more information on UKCIP
refer to www.ukcip.org.uk).
Two types of assessment are conducted within UKCIP’s modular framework: multi-sectoral regional /
sub-UK studies, and nation-wide assessments of impacts on specific sectors. A broad range of studies
have been initiated:
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scoping studies are underway or have been completed in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and
six English regions;
three single-sector studies have been completed (on health, biodiversity and nature conservation);
three single-sector assessments are underway (on gardens, the marine environment and the built
environment); and
one multi-sectoral assessment has been undertaken in two English regions (the REGIS project).
Approximately 75 organisations have so far been involved in funding these studies. They include the
Scottish Executive, the National Assembly for Wales, Department of Health, Department for
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Environment Agency and other statutory nature
conservation agencies, local authorities, the voluntary sector, as well as businesses organisations such
as UK Water Industry Research. The research consortia have included members of over 30 research
consultancies, voluntary organisations and Universities.
5.
Key findings from UKCIP studies so far
Findings from the first round of UKCIP studies are presented in the report Climate Change: Assessing
the impacts – identifying responses (McKenzie Hedger et al., 2000). With different areas of the UK
possessing varied economic bases and social characteristics, it is not surprising that different priority
issues have emerged. In summary these are:
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North West England: coastal infrastructure, waste water systems, upland land use change and heat
stress in factories (Shackley et al., 1998)
South East England: water demand, coastal flooding, building subsidence, water quality and
countryside (Wade et al., 1999)
South West England: housing, coastal squeeze, marine systems and transport infrastructure
(Climatic Challenge Conference, 1999)
East Midlands: water supply, coastal and river flooding, agricultural change and building
subsidence (Kersey et al., 2000)
Scotland: housing, transport infrastructure, marine systems and waste water systems (Kerr et al.,
1999)
Wales: water supply, flooding and land use (Farrar et al., 2000)
These studies also explored the issues likely to affect adaptation. Among the key findings were:
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The policy environment needs to facilitate integrated planning and decision-making.
More priority needs to be given to institutional change and changes in infrastructure for flood
prevention and alleviation.
A climate change contingency factor should be built into investment plans now!
Action will depend on decision-makers being convinced they have sufficient foundation to act,
either by having more information on impacts or better guidance on how to handle uncertainty.
Leadership is required to mobilise action.
In undertaking these studies with our partners we have found a wide range of awareness and
understanding about climate change. Some sectors such as water and insurance are heavily engaged
while others, such as manufacturing and service industries, tend not to plan for the time scales of
climate change (20-80 years).
6.
UKCIP02 climate scenarios and further UKCIP tools for climate impacts assessment
The UKCIP98 scenarios were a key input to all first round UKCIP studies and well received by
researchers and decision-makers alike, who welcomed the format of presentation and the degree of
information provided. Demands for further information also emerged, with stakeholders requesting:
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More detailed climate models
Better information on extreme weather events
Guidance on how to handle uncertainty in climate scenarios
Advice on the possibility of rapid climate change – will the Gulf Stream switch-off?
In response to these demands, DEFRA commissioned the Hadley Centre and the Tyndall Centre to
develop an improved set of UK climate scenarios for delivery in Spring 2002. The new scenarios will
be based on the latest Hadley Centre global models which be able to provide better representation of
storm tracks than earlier models. They will also use the full range of new IPCC emissions scenarios,
which include emissions of greenhouse gases and sulphur. In addition, results from the Regional
Climate Model will be downscaled to provide more geographical detail (provide data at a 50km
resolution as opposed to 300km as in the UKCIP98 scenarios), and improved prediction of extreme
weather events. The process whereby scenarios will be generated is illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Schematic representation of the generation of the UKCIP02 scenarios.
AOGCM
SRES A2
and
control
sea-ice
SST
Hi-resolution
AGCM
50km RCM
control
1961-90 and 2071-2100
prediction
1961-90 and
2071-2100
prediction
A2
A2
Note:
 Similar AGCM and RCM runs will be derived from
other A2 and B2 AOGCM predictions
 Scale patterns for A1B, B1 and A1FT emissions
 Scale patterns for other climate sensitivities
 Scale patterns for 2011-40 and 2041-70
Source: Hadley Centre
B2
Two further research tools are being developed within UKCIP for release in Autumn in 2001.
Guidance on how to handle the uncertainties associated with climate change in decision-making
processes is being developed with the Environment Agency’s National Centre for Risk Assessment
and Options Appraisal. The guidelines pose a series of questions designed to help decision-makers
explore the risks of different adaptation options, and so to make more informed decisions in the face
on uncertainty. A methodology for costing the impacts of climate change is also being developed
that will help decision-makers to cost the marketed and non-marketed aspects of climate change, and
to explore the costs of impacts without and without adaptation measures.
It is hoped that the new scenarios and further guidance tools will enable more detailed assessments of
climate change impacts to be undertaken and help provide decision-makers with a firmer foundation
from which to act on climate change.
7.
Next steps
London scoping study
Gaps in regional coverage from first phase studies exist. Completing studies in all regions, critically
London, is a major priority. Other study outputs suggest climate change will have numerous impacts
on London:
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Floods and high temperatures may cause increased disruption to transport infrastructure
Building design and construction techniques will have to allow for increased resilience to
subsidence, driving rain, storm damage, flooding and sewer overflow
Changes in financial sector are likely owing to global and national changes in insurance markets
Housing / buildings may become more expensive, placing extra pressures on development land
New public health challenges will emerge
Increased competition for suitable development sites could increase land purchase costs
Emergency services will have to deal with more extreme weather events (floods, storms,
heatwaves)
Summer working conditions may worsen
Demand for “green oases” and different tourism facilities may increase
Collaboration between UKCIP and key stakeholders in London, including the Government Office and
GLA, has resulted in a London scoping study being initiated which it is hoped will get underway
before the year-end.
Agenda for action
A revised agenda for action has been set based on findings from the first phase of UKCIP studies. In
the first instance, involvement of the private sector to date was limited. This was essentially because
most companies operate on short term planning horizons (1-2-5 years vs. scenario timeframes 2020s,
2050s, 2080s), they believe there is still considerable uncertainty in climate projections, and they have
more immediate priorities than assessing their vulnerability to climate change. As a result, many
remain unaware of their exposure to risk and of the potential opportunities presented by climate
change. UKCIP seeks to encourage greater participation of the private sector in next stage climate
studies.
It is also clear that to develop an appropriate UK response to climate change:
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Additional funding is required for research to answer key questions raised in initial scoping
studies.
The policy environment needs to facilitate integrated planning and decision-making
Action will depend on decision-makers being convinced they have sufficient foundation to act
Climate change contingency factor should be built into investment plans now!
Leadership is required to mobilise action
UKCIP will be taking up these issues in its next phase of work in order to inform Government
strategy on adapting to climate change.
References
Climatic Challenge Conference (1999). Proceedings of the Climatic Challenge Conference, St.
Mellion, Cornwall, 28-29 October 1999.
Farrar, J., Vaze, P., Hulme, M. and Reynolds, B., 2000. Wales: Changing Climate, Challenging
Choices. A scoping study of climate change impacts in Wales. Report prepared for the National
Assembly of Wales.
Hulme, M. and Jenkins, G., 1998. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom - Technical
Report. UK Climate Impacts Programme Technical Report No.1. Climatic Research Unit, Norwich.
16pp.
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IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001. The Scientific Basis. Technical Summary of the Working Group 1
Report. Part 1 of the Working Group 1 contribution to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Kerr, A., Shackley, S., Milne, R. and Allen, S., 1999. Climate Change: Scottish Implications
Scoping Study. Scottish Executive Central Research Unit, Edinburgh. 75pp.
Kersey, J., Wilby, R., Fleming, P. and Shackley, S., 2000. The potential impacts of climate change in
the East Midlands: Technical Report. Environment Agency, Solihull.
McKenzie Hedger, M., Gawith, M., Brown, I., Connell, R., and Downing, T.E. (Eds.) 2000. Climate
Change: Assessing the impacts - identifying responses. The first three years of the UK Climate
Impacts Programme. UKCIP Technical Report. UKCIP and DETR, Oxford.
Shackley, S., Wood, R. Hornung, M. Hulme, M., Handley, J. Darier, E. and Walsh, M. 1998.
Changing by Degrees - The Impacts of Climate Change in the North West of England: Technical
Overview. University of Manchester, Manchester. 63pp.
Wade, S., Hossell, J, Hough, M. and Fenn, C. (Eds.) 1999. The Impacts of Climate Change in the
South East: Technical Report, WS Atkins, Epsom, 94pp.
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