Download Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in Jordan

Climate Change: Why We
Should Care
P rep ared by :
B at i r Wardam
C a rbou n P u bl i c Even t
R oad t o Doha 20 12
Amman 6-6-2012
Climate Change is facing us…Can we cope?
Yes…proved by history
Are Climate Skeptics Right? NOOO
Cultures of Middle East were shaped by
climate pressures
 But future climate change is more difficult to deal
with.
 National borders limits migrations.
 Over-population
 The region's emissions of greenhouse gases are less
than 5 percent of the world's total. But emissions
from the Middle East and North Africa surged 88
percent from 1990 to 2004, the third-largest rise in
the world and more than three times the world
average
 Per capita greenhouse gas emissions vary widely
across the region with extremely high rates for
several oil and gas producers. Qatar had the world's
highest per capita emissions, with 56.2 tonnes of
carbon dioxide in 2006
What to expect? Magnifying existing
problems
 Water Resources: Reduced water flow in the
fertile crescent
 Sea Level Rise: a sea level rise of only 1 metre would
directly impact 41,500km2 of the Arab coastal lands. The
most serious impacts of sea level rise would be in Egypt,
Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the
UAE.
 The effects on the region’s agricultural sector would mostly
be felt in Egypt, where a 1 metre rise would put 12% of the
country’s agricultural land at risk. It
 would also directly affect 3.2% of the population in the Arab
countries, compared to a global percentage of about 1.28%.
 Health: changes in geographical ranges of disease
vectors like mosquitoes, waterborne pathogens,
water quality, air quality and food availability and
quality.
 Incidence of infectious diseases like malaria and
schistosomiasis will increase, mainly in Egypt,
Morocco and Sudan. Malaria, which already infects
3 million people annually in the Arab region, will
become more prevalent
Impacts on the Arab World
 Food Security: Higher temperatures, lower rainfall
and alteration in the span of seasons will require
developing new varieties that can adapt to the
emerging conditions.
 Crops which need less water and can withstand
higher levels of salinity should be developed and
introduced on a large scale
 Tourism: An increase of between 1-4°C in average
temperature will cause a drastic decline in the index
of tourism comfort all over the region. Areas
classified between “good” and “excellent” are likely
to become “marginal to “unfavourable” by the year
2080, mainly because of hotter summers, extreme
weather events, water scarcity and ecosystems
degradation.
 Biodiversity: 2°C rise in temperature will make
extinct up to 40% of all the species. The Arab
countries have many unique formations that are
especially vulnerable to climate change risk, such
as the cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria, the
mangroves in Qatar, the reed marshes of Iraq, the
high mountain ranges of Yemen and Oman, and
the coastal mountain ranges of the Red Sea.
 Land use and urban Planning: An estimated 75% of
buildings and infrastructure in the region are at
direct risk of climate change impacts, mainly from
sea level rise, higher intensity and frequency of hot
days and storm surges. Reliability of transportation
systems, water supply and wastewater networks,
and energy generation stations will be at risk
Impacts on Jordan
 Three main developmental trends stand out to
define the sustainability challenges for Jordan. The
country is the 4th most water poor in the world with
an average per capita water availability of 145 cubic
meters. Moreover, Jordan imports 96% of its
energy requirements translating into a bill of 20%
of GDP when oil prices are ate peak. Jordan is
highly susceptible to fluctuations of food
commodity prices and in a future expected to be
dominated by food crises Jordan will be hit hard by
such consequences.
 Emissions Analysis:
 2000 baseline, 20.14 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2
equivalent (CO2 eq.) of GHGs to the atmosphere
 Sources: Energy 74%, Industry 7.9%, Waste 13.5%,
and landuse change 3.7%
Is the Climate Changing?
 A comprehensive analysis of available climate data
(1961-2005) has revealed clear trends in temperature
and rainfall. Both maximum and minimum
temperatures in selected meteorological stations
have shown significant increasing trends between
0.3- 2.8 C. This is parallel to an observed 5-20%
decrease in precipitation in the majority of
meteorological stations. Only 2 out of 19 stations
show an increase of 5-10% in precipitation at the
same time.
 Climate change projections for Jordan show an increase in
temperature of less than 2 C by the year 2050. Warming
was found to be stronger during the warm months of the
year while less warming is projected to occur in the cold
months of the year.
 An Increase in 2 C will result in a decreased rainfall by 20%
until 2050.
 For the agriculture sector the results showed that climate
change could have significant impacts in particular on
rainfed agriculture and livestock sector
Socio-economic Impacts
 Climate change is expected to play a detrimental role
to human development by increasing the severity of
resource scarcity in a country like Jordan, making
access to natural resources more difficult. The poor
are expected to be the most vulnerable societal group
to the impacts of climate change as they possess the
least assets and resources to keep adapting to the
impacts of climate change.
the following social groups can be most affected by
climate change
 Farmers depending on rainfed agriculture.
 Farmers depending on small scale irrigated
agriculture.
 Families dependent on livestock management.
 Populations more prone to heat waves.
 Population suffering from the lack of proper access
to safe and affordable drinking water.
CC Global Governance
Bali Action Plan 2007
1- Enhanced action on Adaptation to climate
change
2- Enhanced action on mitigation of climate
change.
3- Enhanced action on technology development
and transfer.
4- Enhanced action on the provision of financial
resources and investment.
 Durban 2011: A milestone on CC global negotiations.
 By 2020 a new treaty where all countries are equal
(no developed vs. developing)
 Commitments are on all countries.
 Need to submit emission data each 2 years.
What do we need to act?
Knowledge and Wisdom
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Get rid of denialism.
Identify the real challenges in numbers and facts
Identify most vulnerable areas/sectors
Integrate CC with development plans
Mobilize public actions and involve communities
Work rapidly on adaptation.
Keep records of emissions updated and accessible.
Use the existing resources for green energy
What Example?