Download Presentation of COMBINE (FP7)

COMBINE – Comprehensive Modelling of the
Earth System for Better Climate
Prediction and Projection
M. A. Giorgetta, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg
IS-ENES kick-off meeting, 30-31 March 2009
Call:
Funding scheme:
Partners:
Duration:
Status:
EC sci. officer:
FP7-ENV-2008-1, ENV.2008.1.1.4.1
Collaborative project
22
48 months (plan: 01.05.2009 – 30.04.2013)
in negotiation
Philippe Tulkens
Partners in COMBINE, and their involvement in IS_ENES
1 Coord.
Max Planck Society / MPI-M
12
PBL
2
Met Office
13
SMHI
3
CNRS
14
Univ. Wageningen
4
CMCC
15
Univ. Helsinki
5
MF - CNRM
16
CERFACS
6
KNMI
17
UCL
7
Univ. Bergen
18
Univ. Bristol
8
Danish Met. Institute
19
Univ. Kassel
9
ECMWF
20
Tech. Univ. Crete
10
ETH Zürich
21
Cyprus R&E Foundation
11
Finnish Met. Institute
22
INPE
Selected key questions in climate research
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Do internal modes of variability exist in the climate system that
allow skillful climate prediction on decadal time scales?
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What is the role of different processes and related feedbacks for
climate sensitivity and climate change on the centennial time scale
(until 2100 and longer)?
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What is the nature of these modes?
Initialization methods and data?
In which regions does predictability exist?
For which time scales is a prediction skillful? (5, 10, 20 years?)
Carbon and nitrogen cycles (and methane)
Clouds aerosols and chemistry
Stratospheric dynamics
Cryosphere: sea ice and ice shields
How to develop new mitigation scenarios?
F( impacts( climate change( RCP scenarios, feedbacks ) )
The project in a nutshell
New components (WP1-5)
Obs. and re-analyses
(C1) Carbon and nitrogen cycle
(C2) Aerosols, clouds and chemistry
(C3) Stratosphere
(C4) Cryosphere
ESMs
(M1) COSMOS
MPG
(M2) HadCM, HadGEM
METO
(M3) IPSL-ESM
CNRS
Centennial Simulation (WP6)
(M4) CMCC
CMCC
(CS1) Pre-industrial control
(M5) CNRM-CM
MF-CNRM
(CS2) 20th century
(M6) EC-EARTH
EC-Earth cons.
(CS3) 21st century scenario (RPCs)
(M7) NORCLIM
UiB
(C5) Initialisation
CMIP5
(CS4) +1% CO2 / year to 4xCO2
Decadal Simulation (WP7)
(DS1) Climate prediction (2005-2035)
(DS2) Climate hindcasts
Impacts, and scenarios (WP8)
Impacts in sectors and regions
Scenarios
ESMs
Differences
(E1) ESM
DΑ(C(i))
= (E2) – (E1)
(E2) ESM + C(i)
DΩ(C(i))
= (E4) – (E3)
(E3) newESM – C(i)
DΣ(ΣjC(j)) = (E4) – (E1)
(E4) newESM
Example: Exploring CMIP5 expts in ENSEMBLES
Method proposed for the future CMIP5 experiments, i.e. experiments
for the 5th IPCC assessment of climate change (Hibbard et al., 2007):
Story lines
Impacts in regions and sectors
(Mitigation) Scenario
Emissions
2B
Concentrations
1
Carbon cycle - climate model
Surface
temperature
2A
E1 scenario (Van Vuuren et al., 2007)
1000
Well mixed greenhouse gases as
prescribed in the E1 scenario.:
800
600
CO2
[ppm]
CH4
[ppb] -1000 ppb
N2O
[ppb]
CFC-11* [ppt]
CFC-12 [ppt]
400
CFC-11* includes the radiative forcing
from all minor CFCs.
200
Equivalent CO2 concentration
stabilizes at 450 ppm
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Sulfate aerosol decreases quickly
 near pre-industrial levels at 2100
 less cooling in early 21st cent.
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Land use change consistent with
assumptions in the IMAGE model
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
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CO2
[ppmv]
2050
2100
SRES A2
522
836
SRES A1B
522
703
SRES B1
482
540
Ens. E1
435
421
Global surface air temperature anomalies
Global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies w.r.t. 1860-1880 (°C)
Historic 1950-2000
A1B 2001 – 2100
ECHAM5/MPIOM incl.
carbon cycle
E1 2001 – 2100
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Initially stronger warming in E1 than in A1B because of faster
reduction in sulfate aerosol loading, hence less cooling.
Reduce warming in E1 after 2040
Warming in 2100: ~4°C in A1B and ~2°C in E1
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Climate – carbon cycle feedback will differ after 2050
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Implied CO2 emissions 1950 to 2100
Implied CO2 emissions with and without climate – carbon cycle feedback (GtC/yr)
Historic 1950 – 2000
A1B 2001 – 2100
ECHAM5/MPIOM incl.
carbon cycle
E1 2001 – 2100
without feedback
with feedback
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Implied CO2 emissions of E1 scenario drop sharply after ~2015
(unlike emissions for A1B scenario)
Implied emissions are reduced by climate - carbon cycle feedback
2100: -2 GtC/yr in E1 and -4.5 GtC/yr in A1B
Implied emissions of E1 close to 0 in 2100 (still positive).
Summary
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In COMBINE we hope to make some interesting
science w.r.t.
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The role of different processes for feedbacks that regulate
climate change
Predictability on the decadal time scale related to the internal
variability of the climate system and initialization techniques
Impacts in sectors and regions for RCP scenarios
Iterative improvement of mitigation scenarios.
And we hope for a fruitful interaction with IS-ENES:
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Infrastructure support in archiving, and dissemination of large
data sets for the full project lifetime (CMIP5 and beyond)
Generally more transparent supercomputing and data
processing infrastructure at the European and international
level.
Thank you
COMBINE & IPCC-AR5 time lines
Work packages and PIs
New components
(WP1) C and N cycle
Pierre Friedlingstein (CNRS)
Chris Jones (METO)
(WP2) Clouds, aerosols, and chemistry
Ulrike Lohmann (ETH)
Heikki Järvinen (FMI)
(WP3) Stratosphere
Elisa Manzini (CMCC)
Neal Butchart (METO)
(WP4) Cryosphere
Shuting Yang (DMI)
Masa Kageyama (CNRS)
(WP5) Initialisation
Doug Smith (Doug Smith)
Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)
CMIP5/AR5 + Evaluation
(WP6) Decadal climate prediction
Rein Haarsma (KNMI), Silvio Gualdi
(CMCC)
(WP7) Climate projections and
feedbacks
Christoph Heinze (UiB), Johannes
Quaas (MPG)
(WP8) Impacts, regional feedbacks and
Scenarios
Pavel Kabat (WU)
Daniela Jacob (MPG)
Detlef van Vuuren (PBL)
Text of call FP7-ENV-2008-1
Area 6.1.1.4. Future Climate

ENV.2008.1.1.4.1. New components in Earth System modelling
for better climate projections
Future climate predictions necessitate development of models
which incorporate more complete range of Earth System
parameters in comparison to the existing ones, as well as the Earth
System feedbacks on future climate change. Incorporation of Earth
system components (e.g., chemistry, stratosphere, nitrogen cycle,
aerosols and ozone, cryosphere, ocean biochemistry and carbon
sink, human dimension) within climate models and applications of
these to a number of case studies (e.g. decadal-timescale
prediction). Implications of these feedbacks for impacts of climate
change on different sectors (e.g. water resources, agriculture,
forestry, air quality) through specific simulations.
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Expected impact:
The project outcome should contribute to the 5th IPCC assessment
on climate change and provide solid scientific basis for future
policy actions at European and international level …
Pert diagram
Motivation for this study
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United Nations Framework on Climate Change:
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Article 2:
‘The ultimate objective of this Convention ... is to achieve, ..., stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.’
Questions relevant for IPCC AR5
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What anthropogenic CO2 emissions are feasible for a CO2 conc. pathway?
Were are anthrop. carbon emissions stored in the system?
What is the resulting climate change for a given CO2 pathway?
What is the role of feedbacks between climate change and the C cycle:
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for climate change?
for feasible carbon emissions?
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CMIP5 protocol provides description of experiments for the investigation of
these questions in a coordinated multi model ensemble.
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European ENSEMBLES project:
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Mitigation scenario E1 (Van Vuuren et al., 2007).
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Stabilize the anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a CO2 concentration
at around 450 ppm during the 22nd century.
To match the European Union 2°C target.
Apply E1 scenario and CMIP5 experiments to address questions listed above
Pre-industrial control simulation
Global annual mean surface air temperature (°C) and CO2 concentration (ppmv)
Pre-industrial conditions, thick lines: 11-year running means
Surface air temperature
(left scale, °C)
Atmospheric CO2
concentration
(right scale, ppmv)
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Climate of undisturbed system stable over 1000 years,
no systematic drift in surface air temperature or CO2 concentration
Global annual mean surface air temperature
Global annual mean surface air temperature anomalies w.r.t. 1860-1880 (°C)
5 year running means
simulated (5 realizations)
observed (Brohan et al., 2006)
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Simulated surface air temperature less variable than observed.
Natural sources of variability like volcanic forcing or the 11 year
solar cycle are excluded from the experiment.
Simulated warming in 2005 slightly underestimated.
Global annual mean CO2 emissions 1860 to 2005
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (GtC/yr)
Global annual mean; 11-year running means
Implied emissions
from simulations
Observed
(Marland et al., 2006)
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Model allows for relatively higher emissions before 1930.
Minimum in 1940s
Similar emissions in 2000.
Carbon release and uptake by land, 1860 – 2005
Carbon release from land use emissions and uptake by land (GtC/yr),
Positive = land-to-atmosphere flux; Model: 11-year running means,
Observed land-use emissions
(Houghton, 2008)
Simulated land-use emissions
Simulated net land uptake
Simulated land uptake
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Simulated land use emissions smaller than observed,
especially in 1960-2000
Simulated land uptake sationary from 1920 to 1960.
Simulated carbon uptake 1860 to 2005
Simulated carbon uptake (GtC/yr)
11-year running means
Simulated ocean uptake
Simulated land uptake
(as on previous figure)
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Ocean carbon uptake very similar to land uptake
Reduced uptake in 1950s
Carbon cycle – climate model
Anthropogenic forcing
CH4, N2O, CFC conc.
Natural forcing
CO2 emissions/conc.
Volcanic aerosol
Land use change
Solar variations
XX
Atmosphere
ECHAM5 T31/L19
~4°
Momentum, Energy,
H2O, CO2
Land
Ocean
HD
JSBACH
MPIOM
3°L40
HAMOCC
Carbon cycle climate model
Experiments
1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Control
“1860”
1000 yr
Historic
1860-2005
SRES A1B
E1 450 ppm
Ensembles of
5 realizations
Carbon uptake by ocean and land 1960-2000
Fraction of simulated fossil fuel emissions (%)
Remaining in the atmosphere
Absorbed by ocean
Aborbed by land
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50% of simulated fossil fuel emissons remain in the atmosphere
In 2000: simulated ocean uptake = ~2 x simulated land uptake
Accumulated C emissions: Coupled – Uncoupled
Reduction in accumulated C emissions by climate – carbon cycle coupling (GtC)
(11-year running means)
Historic 1860 – 2000
A1B 2001 – 2100
E1 2001 – 2100
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Climate – carbon cycle feedback reduces implied carbon
emissions until 2100 by 180 (E1) to 280 (A1B) GtC.
Fig.12
Fig.13
Surface C uptake: Coupled – uncoupled
Regions with negative differences take up less carbon under global
warming conditions and contribute to a positive feedback between
climate and carbon cycle.
Stabilization scenario E1
(2080 to 2100)
IPCC SRES scenario A1B
(2080 to 2100)
Table 1
Table 2