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MET 112 Global Climate Change - Lecture 12 Climate Change: Connections Eugene Cordero San Jose State University Outline Ozone Depletion Water - Film Perspectives 1 MET 112 Global Climate Change Why is the ozone layer important Ozone acts as the Earth’s protective shield against the Sun’s harmful Ultraviolet radiation (UV radiation). The natural development of the ozone layer permitted life to evolve above water. Without the ozone layer, life would not exist on Earth! 3 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ozone, the good and the bad Ozone is often confused: Stratosphere Altitude (km) Good ozone: Stratospheric ozone The ozone layer Bad ozone: Tropospheric ozone Smog Troposphere Note: ozone is also greenhouse gas ozone amount At what time of year would you expect UV values to be the highest? Winter Spring Summer Fall 100% MET 112 Global Climate Change ll 0% Fa m er Su m g 0% Sp r in r 0% W in te 1. 2. 3. 4. 8 Cities with high levels of air pollution correspond to high levels of 1. Stratospheric ozone 2. Mesospheric ozone 3. Tropospheric ozone 100% oz oz o on e on oz ric he os p os M es Tr op ph e ric er ic ph St ra to s MET 112 Global Climate Change ne 0% e 0% 9 Where are the highest concentrations of ozone located? In large cities The stratosphere The troposphere Near volcanoes re no es 0% lc a vo ea r N e tro p os st ra to s e Th MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% ph e ph ci la rg e In 0 of 250 0% er e tie s 0% Th 1. 2. 3. 4. 10 Ozone Depletion Topics History of Ozone Depletion The Ozone Hole: what, where, why? Ozone into the future Early concerns of ozone depletion 12 MET 112 Global Climate Change History of Ozone Depletion Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) developed in 1940’s and 50’s as: – Refrigerants, propellants, fire retardants 1970’s CFCs detected in upper atmosphere. – Many of these have long atmospheric lifetimes: –(10’s to 100’s of years) – 1974 Rowland and Molina propose that CFC’s can destroy ozone in the stratosphere. – CFC contain chlorine (Cl) – Chlorine can destroy ozone rapidly 14 MET 112 Global Climate Change Ozone Hole Recipe Ingredients: Science interpretation Chlorine gas Cold Temperatures (~-80C) Instructions: Allow cold temperatures to form Polar Stratospheric Clouds (1-2 weeks). Allow time for polar stratospheric clouds to convert chlorine gas into ozone destroying chemicals. (1 month) Polar Stratospheric Clouds allow ozone friendly chlorine to be transformed into ozone destroying chlorine. Ozone depletion then starts when sun returns to Antarctica in the spring Bake ingredients with sunlight. Chlorine gas is abundant in atmosphere due to CFC’s Cold Temperatures (~-80C) only occur over Antarctica during the cold winter. Presto, a delicious ozone hole! Ozone hole grows from late August through till October. 16 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is being done about ozone depletion? Montreal Protocol ~ (1988) international agreement to reduce ozone depleting chemicals Further amendments accelerated the phase out. – Developed countries have switched to HCFC’s (more ozone friendly!) – Developing countries have until 2004/5 to phase out CFC’s. 18 MET 112 Global Climate Change Is the Montreal Protocol working? Seems to be!!! Recent observations indicate that chlorine is beginning to decline in the atmosphere. Kyoto protocol uses similar approach Start off with small achievable steps Further amendments accelerate reductions 19 MET 112 Global Climate Change 20 MET 112 Global Climate Change What are predictions for the future? Model simulations suggest: – atmospheric chlorine will return to pre-80’s level In next 50 years or so . __________________ A slow ozone recovery should follow decreasing chlorine concentrations!!! – Uncertainties still remain: Phase out of CFC’s ____________________ Influence of global warming ____________________ 22 MET 112 Global Climate Change 23 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is the connection between ozone depletion and global warming? No direct connection between these environmental issues. However: Global warming may enhance ozone depletion Global warming produces: – Tropospheric warming & – Stratospheric cooling 25 MET 112 Global Climate Change What is the connection between ozone depletion and global warming? An increase in greenhouse gases traps more heat and thus – The stratosphere tends to cool (stratospheric cooling) Therefore, if the stratosphere cools, then Ozone hole chemistry – PSCs will likely increase – So slightly more ozone depletion Global warming will delay recovery of ozone layer 27 MET 112 Global Climate Change Over the last 100 years, global tropospheric ozone levels have been 1. increasing 2. decreasing 3. nearly constant ns t si ng co ar ly ne de cr ea si n cr ea in 0 of 250 0% an t 0% g 0% MET 112 Global Climate Change 28 The chemical that triggers rapid ozone loss associated with CFCs is Carbon Dioxide Nitrogen dioxide Methane Chlorine hl or in e ne 0% C di o en itr og N MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% et ha xi d e xi d Di o n ar bo C 0 of 250 0% e 0% M 1. 2. 3. 4. :20 29 The Antarctic ozone hole develops during SH Spring SH Summer NH Spring NH Summer g Su m Sp r in H N Su SH MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% m er 0% H rin g Sp SH 0 of 250 0% m m er 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 30 Global ozone values are expected to recover in the next 10 years 30 years 50 years 100 years MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% 10 0 ye ye ar s ar s 0% ar s ye 30 ye 10 0 of 250 0% ar s 0% 50 1. 2. 3. 4. :30 31 Drinkable Water (Freshwater) Of all the water in the world, 97% is sea water (salt) Freshwater occupies only 3% of the Earth’s water Of the freshwater, 77% of freshwater is locked up as ice. Water is the most important natural resources in the world. 33 MET 112 Global Climate Change Drinkable Water (Freshwater) Today, over 1 billion people don’t have access to safe drinking water The predictions of climate change suggest that access to fresh water will be made more difficult –Changes in location and quanitity of precipitation –Raising sea levels 34 MET 112 Global Climate Change Economic interest Water "One of the world's great business opportunities. It promises to be to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th." - Fortune Magazine 35 MET 112 Global Climate Change While watching the documentary, Thirst, think about the how the predictions of future climate change (including water resources) will intersect with the interest and impact of water privatization. Final Exam question: Write an essay relating how the predictions of future climate change may intersect with the issue of water privatization. Local/National Policies What are local/national governments doing to reduce GHG emissions? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Metr112: Main points Let’s come up with the three most important points (i.e concepts or themes) covered in this course. 1. 2. 3. 41 MET 112 Global Climate Change Summary Over the last 100 years and especially over the last thirtyfive years, the Earth climate has experienced a significant warming trend. Current levels of greenhouse gases are higher than anytime over the last 400,000 years and likely longer. Science is confident that humans are responsible for a majority of the warming observed over the last 50 years. The Earth’s climate will continue to warm and this warming will place significant stress on social systems throughout the world. Significant climate change mitigation is urgently needed to reduce negative impacts. MET 112 Global Climate Change 42 Your opinion… Global warming is under way? Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% 0% gl y D D is a is a gr ee gr ee ra l 0% eu t A gr ee 0% St ro n 0 of 250 St ro n gl y A gr ee 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 44 The US should sign the Kyoto Protocol Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% ag re e 0% St ro ng ly D Di s is a gr ee tra l 0% eu A gr ee 0% N ly Ag re e 0% St ro ng 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 46 Government should act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even if it means raising energy prices Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree 0% 0% gl y D D is a is a gr ee gr ee ra l 0% eu t A gr ee 0% St ro n 0 of 250 St ro n gl y A gr ee 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. If you were going to help mitigate global warming, which change would you feel most comfortable making. 1. Taking public transport more 2. Paying more for gasoline 3. Altering your food choices 0% .. c. rin g lte A Pa yi ng m yo or e ur fo r fo od ga s sp tra n bl ic pu ki ng Ta 0 of 250 0% o. .. o. . 0% Global warming will affect your life? Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% 0% gl y D D is a is a gr ee gr ee ra l 0% eu t A gr ee 0% St ro n 0 of 250 St ro n gl y A gr ee 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 49 I would vote for a law that raises gasoline taxes by $0.05 per gallon to improve energy efficiency 1. Yes 2. No o 0% N Ye 0 of 250 s 0% I would vote for a law that raises gasoline taxes by $0.25 per gallon to improve energy efficiency 1. Yes 2. No o 0% N Ye 0 of 250 s 0% I would vote for a law that raises gasoline taxes by $1.00 per gallon to improve energy efficiency 1. Yes 2. No o 0% N Ye 0 of 250 s 0% To help mitigate the impacts of climate change, I’m willing to reduce the number of miles I drive and fly Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree 0% ag re e 0% ly D Di s is a gr ee tra l 0% eu A gr ee 0% St ro ng 0 of 250 St ro ng ly Ag re e 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. To help mitigate the impacts of climate change, I’m willing to change my diet Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% ag re e 0% ly D Di s is a gr ee tra l 0% eu A gr ee 0% St ro ng 0 of 250 St ro ng ly Ag re e 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 54 To help mitigate the impacts of climate change, I will encourage my friends and family to reduce energy use Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% ag re e 0% ly D Di s is a gr ee tra l 0% eu A gr ee 0% St ro ng 0 of 250 St ro ng ly Ag re e 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 55 To help mitigate the impacts of climate change, I feel compelled to do whatever I can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Strongly Agree Agree Neutral Disagree Strongly Disagree MET 112 Global Climate Change 0% ag re e 0% ly D Di s is a gr ee tra l 0% eu A gr ee 0% St ro ng 0 of 250 St ro ng ly Ag re e 0% N 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 56 Local Action: Does It Make a Difference? “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it’s the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead. 57 MET 112 Global Climate Change