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Climate Change: The Move to Action
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2012
March 27, 2012
Class News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12
• 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:
– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php
/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
Project Timeline
• 22 and 27 March 2012
– In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a
15 minute, 5 – 10 slides, of status of project. Projects
will be in different stages, but should have a good
idea of the scope and where you are going. This will
be a time get some input and refine and focus.
– This need not be polished, but should represent
vision, structure, and some essential elements of
knowledge.
• 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic
Data Center.
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Interesting new document?
– OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The
Consequences of Inaction
Subjects that need covering
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Stabilization
Military
Interface to adaptation
Geo-engineering
Sea Level
Elements of Argument
Today
• Some issues of Defense and National
Security
• In previous informal polls of THIS class, the
students concluded that the catalyst that
would motivate the U.S. on climate change
would be national security related to
international instability.
Reference Material
• 2007: National Security and Climate Change,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2009: National Security Energy and Climate,
Retired Generals and Admirals
• 2010: Quadrennial Defense Review
• 2012: Security and Water Resources
NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010
Thread through recent defense security
arguments
• Defense-related Think Tank: Center for
Data Analysis
• Quadrennial Defense Review
• Strong link of energy to Department of
Defense activities
• Intelligence Reviews
Approach
• What are the security risks?
• Which affect American interests?
• What actions should America take?
• Ultimately focus on integrated impacts
An integrated picture?
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
CLIMATE SCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE
IMPACTS
ENERGY
CONSUMPTION
POPULATION
UNCERTAINTY
Fragmented
Policy
INTEGRATED
IIMPACTS
PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE
OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE
?
Basic Findings (1)
• Increase scale of weather-related
ecological and human disruptions:
“sustained natural and human disasters on
a scale far beyond what we see today.”
• Disruption: remember we are in balance,
disruption and uncertainty are major
players in defense and markets
Basic Findings (2)
• Threat Multiplier
– Esp. Middle East, Africa, Asia
– Food production, public health, clean water
– Large migrations
– Failed states
Basic Findings (3)
• To Developed World
– Increased pressure from immigration
– Increase use of resources to respond to
humanitarian disasters
• Interplay between National Security,
Energy, Energy Dependence
– Increase vulnerability to single natural events
and terrorism
Basic Recommendations (1)
• Climate change needs to be integrated
into defense strategy
• U.S. should work more strongly to mitigate
the impacts of climate change
• U.S. should help build adaptive capacity
and resilience in the developing world
Basic Recommendations (2)
• U.S. Department of Defense should
aggressively pursue energy efficiency and
alternative energy
• U.S. should assess impact of climate
change on assets
– Sea level rise
– Extreme events
– Assets in low lying islands
Quadrennial Defense Review
• Change of operating environment
– Geopolitical impacts: Instability of fragile nations
– Humanitarian efforts
– Environmental security
• Impact on assets
– National Intelligence Survey in 2008: 30 installations
already face sea level threats
• Strategic Environmental Research and
Development Program
• Energy efficiency and alternative energy
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Challenges
– When, is important. (2020, 2030, … )
– Changing geography
– Arctic Maritime (clear for 4 weeks @
2035, 3 months @ 2050 )
• Commerce in shipping
– Water and resource scarcity
– Sea level rise impact on installations
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Opportunities
– Cooperative partnerships
– Energy security
– Infrastructure recapitalization
Admiral Titley: Task Force Climate Change
Task Force Energy
• Wild cards
– Abrupt climate change (Fast changes, jumps
from one to another.)
– Geoengineering
– Ocean Acidification
Political risks
• “In the international context, political risk derives
from the perceived legitimacy of our actions and
the resulting impact on the ability and will of
allies and partners to support shared goals. In
the domestic context, political risk relates to
public support of national strategic priorities and
the associated resource requirements in the
near term, midterm, and long term.”
Climate Change Case Studies?
•
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•
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Pakistan floods 2010 and 2011
Russian heat wave and drought 2010
Texas drought and heat 2011
The 2011 Japanese earthquake
The Arab Spring
– Markets
– Relation to energy
Elements of the Political Argument
PA1: Just a Theory
• A common statement is that greenhouse gas is just a theory,
equating theory with conjecture.
– Theory is not conjecture, it is testable.
• Theory suggests some amount of cause and effect – a physical system,
governed by quantitative conservation equations.
– Theory is not fact, it can and will change.
– Need to consider the uncertainty, and the plausibility that the theory
might be wrong.
• Often it is stated in this discussion that gravity is only a theory.
– True, and the theory of gravity is a very useful theory, one put forth by
Newton.
– True, we don’t exactly understand the true nature of the force of gravity,
there are “why” questions.
– Formally, Newton’s theory of gravity is incorrect – that’s what Einstein
did.
• Still, it is a very useful and very accurate theory, that allows us, for example,
to always fall down and never fall up – and go to the Moon with some
confidence.
PA2: Greenhouse Effect
• This is generally not a strongly argued point. Warming of the
surface due to greenhouse gases make the planet habitable.
– Habitable? Water exists in all three phases?
• Water and carbon dioxide and methane are most important natural
greenhouse gases.
• Often a point of argument that water is the “dominant” gas, so traces
of CO2 cannot be important.
– Water is dominant … often said 2/3 rds of warming. Because there is
so much water in the ocean, the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere is largely determined by temperature. (The relative
humidity.)
– This is where it is important to remember the idea of balance, the
climate is in balance, and it is differences from this balance which we
have co-evolved with that are important.
• Burning fossil fuels is taking us away from this balance. It is like opening or
closing a crack in the window … it makes a big difference.
PA3: What happens to this CO2
• A “new” political argument: CO2 from fossil fuels is small
compared to what comes from trees and ocean. True.
But a lot goes into trees and oceans as well. So it is the
excess CO2, the CO2 on the margin that comes from
fossil fuel burning. Not all of this goes into the trees and
oceans, and it accumulates in the atmosphere.
• There are 8.6 Petagrams C per year emitted
– 3.5 Pg C stay in atmosphere
– 2.3 Pg C go into the ocean
– 3.0 Pg C go into the terrestrial ecosystems
• Terrestrial ecosystems sink needs far better quantification
– Lal, Carbon Sequestration, PhilTransRoySoc 2008
• It’s a counting problem! One of our easier ones.
PA4: Cycles
• Some say that there are cycles, they are natural,
they are inevitable, they show that human have
no influence.
– Cycles? yes  natural? Yes
• Inevitable  There are forces beyond our control
– We can determine what causes cycle; they are not
supernatural
• Greenhouse gases change
• “Life” is involved  ocean and land biology
• Humans are life  This is the time humans release CO2
PA4: Cycles  CO2 and T
• At the turn around of the ice ages, temperature
starts to go up before CO2; hence, T increase is
unrelated to CO2
– Need to think about time and balance here …
• There are sources of T and CO2 variability other than the
radiative greenhouse gas effect.
– If CO2 increases in the atmosphere, there will be enhanced
surface warming, but is the increase large enough to change
temperature beyond other sources of variability?
– If T increases, there could be CO2 increases associated with,
for instance, release from solution in the ocean
– CO2 increases could come from burning fossil fuels, massive
die off of trees, volcanoes  have to count, know the balance.
PA4: Cycles: Ice Ages
• In 1975 scientists were predicting an ice age.
Now warming. You have no credibility, why
should we believe you now.
– In 1975, small number of papers got a lot of press
attention.
– 2010  Think scientific method
• Observations, observations, observations
• Improved theory, predictions, cause and effect
• Results reproduced my many investigators, using many
independent sources of observations
• Consistency of theory, prediction, and observations
• Probability of alternative description is very small.
PA5:
The last 1000 years: The hockey stick
Surface temperature and CO2 data from the
past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern
hemisphere average. Temperature from
several types of measurements are consistent
in temporal behavior.
 Medieval warm period
 “Little ice age”
 Temperature starts to follow CO2 as CO2
increases beyond approximately 300 ppm,
the value seen in the previous graph as the
upper range of variability in the past
350,000 years.
PA5: Hockey Stick
• This is the “hockey stick” figure and it is
very controversial. Quality of data,
presentation, manipulation, messaging.
– Rood blog
– Nature on Hockey Stick Controversy
• There are some issues with data,
messaging, emotions of scientists here,
but the data are, fundamentally, correct.
PA5: Hockey Stick: Science
• But place the surface temperature record of the
hockey stick in context using the scientific
method.
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers,
through independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations 
sea level rise, ocean heat content, earlier start of
spring
– Consistency of signals with theory  upper
tropospheric cooling
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
PA5: Hockey Stick: Temperature source
• There has developed a discussion between those who believe in
surface temperature data and those who believe in satellite data.
– Scientifically, it should not be a matter of belief, but validation. Each
system has strengths and weaknesses. Differences should be
reconciled, not held as proof of one over the other.
• Surface: Issues of how sited, representative, urban heat island
– If ignored (wrong), then data flawed
– If taken into account (right), then data are manipulted
• Satellite data objective and accurate?
– Read the literature! Took years to get useful temperature. Every satellite is
different, calibrated with non-satellite data
• And ultimately: Scientific method
– Reproduction of results by independent researchers, through
independent analyses
– Verification of results in other types of observations
– Consistency of signals with theory
– Evaluation of alternative hypotheses
Projects
Use of climate information
• Research on the use of climate knowledge
states that for successful projects, for
example:
– Co-development / Co-generation
– Trust
– Narratives
– Scale
• Spatial
• Temporal
Lemos and Morehouse, 2005
Projects
• Broad subjects and teams defined
• Meeting 1 with Rood
– Now to early March: Project vision and goals
• Meeting 2 with Rood
– Mid to late March: Progress report, refinement of goals if needed
• Class review
– Short, informal presentation, external review and possible
coordination
• Oral Presentation: April 10 and 12
• Final written report: April 25
Project Teams
• Education / Denial
– Allison Caine
– Nayiri Haroutunian
– Elizabeth McBride
– Michelle Reicher
Project Teams
• Regional
– Emily Basham
– Catherine Kent
– Sarah Schwimmer
– James Toth
– Nicholas Fantin
Project Teams
• City
– Jian Wei Ang
– Erin Dagg
– Caroline Kinstle
– Heather Lucier
Project Teams
• University
– Nathan Hamet
– Adam Schneider
– Jillian Talaski
– Victor Vardan
glisaclimate.org
• Goal to facilitate problem solving
– Based on class experience
– Support narratives
– Build templates for problem solving
Approach to Problem Solving
Granularity
• No matter how we cut through this
problem we come to the conclusion that
there is a lot of granularity within the
problem. This granularity represents
complexity, which must be used to
develop a portfolio of solutions rather than
to classify the problem as intractable.
The previous viewgraphs have introduced
“granularity”
• This is a classic short-term versus long-term
problem.
– Ethics
– Economics
– Reaction versus anticipation
• Similarly, regional versus global
• Rich and poor
• Competing approaches
– Mitigation versus adaptation
– Transportation versus Electrical Generation
– This versus that
We arrive at levels of granularity
WEALTH
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
Sandvik: Wealth and Climate Change
LOCAL
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
GLOBAL
SPATIAL
Small scales inform large scales.
Large scales inform small scales.
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Structure of Problem Solving
(http://glisaclimate.org/home )
Complexity challenges disciplinary intuition
• The details of the problem often de-correlate
pieces of the problem.
– What do I mean? Think about heat waves?
• This challenges the intuition of disciplined-based
experts, and the ability to generalize.
– For example --- Detroit is like Chicago.
• The consideration of the system as a whole
causes tensions – trade offs - optimization
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration