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Is a breakthrough on climate change governance on the horizon? From Knowledge to Governance of Climate action: Maria Josefina Figueroa Copenhagen Business School International Conference Climate Change in Transport Oste do aus, Weberstraße ebe st aße 5, 76133 6 33 Karlsruhe, a s u e, Ge Germany a y KIT-Ostendorfhaus, Outline • Is a Climate Governance breakthrough in horizon: cautionary optimism! • From Knowledge to Governance • States central actors ”power and puzzle” • Climate policy as Social Learning Subnational actors leading action. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report From Knowledge to Governance: Completed Completed IPCC Reports IPCC Reports Completed IPCC ork IPCC work Why the IPCC? y Governance: Big From Knowledge to Governance: Big From Knowledge to Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 expectations – slow transformation • Numerous Other Assessments e.g: • • • • • IPCC Report Fifth Assessment IEA World Energy Outlook gy Energy Technology Perspectives Global Energy Assessment Pathways to Deep decarbonization Climate policy is complex and the real world goal setting doesn’t start with single numbers and work backwards. WGIII‐Mitigation of Climate Change: Governance Knowledge Content Third IPCC Mitigation g Report p 2001: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6 7. 8. 9 9. 10. Seeting Stage: Climate Change and Sustainable Development GHG Mitigation Scenarios and Implications Technological and Economic Potential of GHGs reductions Technological and Economic Potential of Options to Enhance and Magnage BiologicalCarbon Reservoirs And Geo‐engineering Barriers, Opportunities and Market Potential of Technologies and Practices Policies Measures and Instruments Policies, Costing Methodologies Global Regional and National Cost and Ancilliary Benefits of Mitigation S Sector C and Cost d Ancilliary A illi B Benefits fi off Mitigaion Mi i i Decision‐making Frameworks WGIII‐Mitigation of Climate Change: Governance Knowledge Content Fourth IPCC Mitigation Report 2007: 1. 2. 3 3. 4. 5. 6 6. 7. 8. 9 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Introduction Framing Issues I Issues related l t d to t mitigation iti ti in i the th long‐term l t context t t Energy Supply Transport and its infrastructure Residential and commercial buildings Industry Agriculture Forestry Waste Management Mitigation from a cross‐sectoral perspective Sustainable development and Mitigation Policies instruments and co‐operative arrangements WGIII‐Mitigation of Climate Change: Governance Knowledge Content Fifth IPCC Mitigation Report 2014: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14 14. 15. 16. Introduction Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Responses and Policies Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods Sustainable Development and Equity Drivers, Trends and Mitigation Assessing Transformation Pathways E Energy S t Systems Transport Buildings Industry Agriculture Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments R i Regional l Development D l t and d Cooperation C ti National and Subnational Policies and Institutions Cross‐cutting Investments and Finance Issues What Then? Has the IPCC Power to set tone for Transition? • Mapping out “levers” Solution Space • Cartographers a map to navigate • Providing policy relevant not policy prescriptive knowledge. knowledge Wide Variety of agreements and institutions on climate change Working Group III contribution to the Figure 13.1 Chapter 13 IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014- Mitigation O Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III. Cambridge University Press, 2014. http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/assessment-reports/fifth-assessment-report. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group III contribution to the Figure 13.2. International cooperation over ends/means and degrees of centralized authority. Blue- existing/Orange Proposed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014- Mitigation O Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III. Cambridge University http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/assessment-reports/fifth-assessment-report. Working Group III contribution to the Figure 13.3. Global map showing the different categories of reduction proposals or commitments for 2020 under the Cancún Agreements and Kyoto Protocol, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014- Mitigation O Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III. Cambridge University Press, 2014. http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/assessment-reports/fifth-assessment-report. States Central Actors to global governance: policy making as ”powering” powering & ….” Nations could not agree on who is to blame or how to allocate emissions Nations disagree on projections for the future. Nations perceive fossil fuel development as the only route out of extreme pov Nations argue that emissions limits are inimical to their short-term economic interests Nations argue that they depend on fossil fuel production Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report States Central Actors to global governance: policy making as ”….puzzling” or ”social learning”: Three pillars for policy: SIGNIFICANT ROLE PLAY SUBNATIONAL ACTORS IMPACTING “PUZZLING” “LEARNING” Learning puzzling and powering Learning, puzzling and powering • • • • • • • • • C40 Clinton Initiative ICLEI SLoCat BID‐City Inicitive s a Cities es Climate a e Init. Asian UNEP‐ WB Partnerships The Climate Group UN Climate Summit NY Opportunities for further learning Governance? • Deep learning in comprehensive and durable strategies linked to global sustainability efforts. • Engaging E i actors t th t wield that i ld power!! !! UNFCCUNFCC Regions R i etc. t • Consolidating Bottom-up and policy making as Social Learning: • Partnering of Cities, communities, businesses, research and educational actors and governments. • Emissions Accounting Tools and Transparency is key.(e.g Cool Cities Challenge joining Standford –Berkeley-UC Davis: Davis, Palo Alto, SF). • Accounting A ti and d further f th R Research h knowledge k l d th t that feedback sustaining paradigmatic change. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Variety of agreements, institutions, actions on climate change ultimately can press states and the process process…. Working Group III contribution to the Figure 13.1 Chapter 13 IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014- Mitigation O Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group III. Cambridge University Press, 2014. http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/assessment-reports/fifth-assessment-report. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Conclusions • IPCC maintains record of Knowledge and Accountability for global action and laid framework conditions required to engage global actors ex: equity effort sharing. sharing • IPCC & others Knowledge creates Maps identifying “levers” solution space. p • Knowledge relevant to global governance – UNFCC 2015 Paris - but also builds up playfield where local action become relevant. • A Cautious optimisms is justified in terms of state policy making as intertwine social learning & power struggle. struggle • Action at subnational level offers further reasons for cautionaryy optimisms p that we are moving g from a q question of “how to do it” not anymore “whether” among key actors. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Thank you for your attention [email protected] Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report