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What do we know about medium term climate change? Valérie Masson-Delmotte The climate system External perturbations Interactions, feedbacks WCRP Internal variability Response to perturbations Anthropogenic CO2 emissions Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (ppm) Atmosphere in 1870 Global Carbon Project, 2016 Atmosphere in 2015 Atmospheric composition ppm ppb NOAA, 2016 ppb ppt Radiative perturbation Harold et al, Nature Climate Change, 2016 based on IPCC 2013 Components of change in radiative forcing since 1750 ? Adapted from IPCC 2013 (shrinkthatfootprint.com) Nos activités agissent sur le bilan d’énergie de la Terre von Schuckmann, K. et al, Nature Climate Change, 2016 Change in Earth’s surface temperature WMO 2016 Human influence Surface warming 1950-2010 Observed Greenhouse gas Human influence Anthropogenic aerosols Solar and volcanic activity Internal variability IPCC 2013 Change in intensity and frequency of extreme events Hansen et al PNAS, 2012 State of knowledge : human influence on extreme events NAS Report, Attribution of extreme weather events, 2016 Capabilities of climate models Available observations Physical mechanisms Evaluation of climate models Reto Knutti Comparing projections after 2005 with observations Difference between weather forecast, predictability, and projections IPCC 2013 Projections explore climate response to different emission pathways Greenhouse gas emission pathways GIEC 2013 Projections explore climate response to different emission pathways Greenhouse gas emission pathways Radiative forcing (W/m2) Projections explore climate response to different emission pathways Greenhouse gas emission pathways Radiative forcing (W/m2) Climate response (°C) Projections explore climate response to different emission pathways Greenhouse gas emission pathways Additional risks Radiative forcing (W/m2) Climate response (°C) Cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide largely determine global mean surface warming 2°C target Amount Remaining Amount Used 1870-2011 IPCC 2013 Regional aspects of surface warming 2°C 1.5°C 4°C °C Number of very hot days Global warming (°C) Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 Regional aspects of precipitation change 1.5°C 2°C 4°C % precipitation change Water cycle change : • for 50% of world’s population at +2°C • for 40% of land surface at +3°C Sedlacek and Knutti, 2014; Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 Potential irreversible change : marine ecosystems Ocean acidification (pH) Arctic sea ice extent in September (millions of km2) Cumulative CO2 emissions since 1850 (Gt CO2) 3 m2 loss per ton CO2 emitted IPCC, 2013; Notz and Stroeve, Science, 2016 Potential irreversible consequences : sea level by 2100 over thousand years • Recent findings suggest risk of destabilisation of marine sectors of Antarctica for 3°C warming or more, strongly enhancing sea level risks on time scales of 50 – 500 years IPCC, 2013; Pollard and de Conto, Nature, 2016 Changing risks for 1.5 – 2°C warming Schleussner et al, ESSD, 2016 Risks of abrupt change Catalogue in projections Intensity of global warming (°C) Drijfhout et al, PNAS, 2015 Mitigation pathways to reduce risks NDC Rogelj et al, Nature, 2016 Future climate assessments www.ipcc.ch AR6 cycle Special Reports on Impacts of global warming of 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways by 2018 Climate change and oceans and the cryosphere Climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems Outline of special report Global warming of 1.5 oC Chapter 1: Framing and context Publications Submitted by October 2017 Accepted by April 2018 Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities Notes from scoping meeting Ocean and cryosphere Chapter 1: Framing and context Publications Submitted by October 2018 Accepted by April 2019 Chapter 2: High mountain areas Chapter 3: Polar regions Chapter 4: Implications of sea level rise for coasts and communities Chapter 5: Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities Chapter 6: Extremes, abrupt change and managing risks Box : low lying islands and coasts In preparation AR6 Main Report AR6 Expected to be released in three working group contributions in 2020/2021 and a Synthesis Report in 2022 Methodology Report update TFI Methodology Report on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories by 2019 Cities Attention on cities in AR6 including a conference in Jan. 2018 and special report on cities in AR7 Timeline Sept 2018 Fall 2019 Global warming of 1.5 oC Oceans and cryosphere Facilitative dialogue UNFCCC Land Use Fall 2019 April 2021 October 2021 April 2022 The Physical Science Basis Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The Synthesis Report Mitigation of Climate Change July 2021 Global Stocktake 2023 UNFCCC IPCC assessments Rigorous Robust Transparent Comprehensive World CO2emissions (Gt per year) Chine USA UE-28 Inde Global Carbon Project Observed Concentrations Compared to IPCC Projections