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DSMHT 403: Climate Modelling and Adaptation Lecture-10: Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate change Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) 24 January 2016 Outline Climate Change Adaptation and needs of Adaptation Adaptation on various sectors in Bangladesh Barriers and Mainstreaming of Adaptation Climate Change Mitigation and Paris Agreement of 2015 Mitigation measures proposed by INDCs Climate Finance in Bangladesh CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation is a response to global warming and climate change, that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming (UNFCC, 2010). Why is adaptation important? Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change Managing climate risk is likely to be important for sustainable development For both these reasons, adaptation should be an important part of policy response to climate change Additional risk due to global warming (IPCC, 2014) Measuring adaptation Hazard: the threat of a stress or perturbation to a system and what it values. Exposure: the contact between a system and a perturbation or stress. Vulnerability: the degree to which a person, system or unit is likely to experience harm due to exposure to perturbations or stresses. Sensitivity: the extent to which a system or its components is likely to experience harm, and the magnitude of that harm, due to exposure to perturbations or stresses. Risk: the conditional probability and magnitude of harm attendant on exposure to a perturbation or stress. Measuring Adaptation Adaptation: A system response to perturbations or stress that is sufficiently fundamental to alter the system itself, sometimes shifting the system to a new state. Resilience: the ability of a system to absorb perturbations or stresses without changes in its fundamental structure or function that would drive the system into a different state (or extinction). Adaptive capacity: the capacity of a system to adapt if the environment where the system exists is changing. It is applied to e.g., ecological systems and human social systems. As applied to ecological systems, the adaptive capacity is determined by: genetic diversity of species. Concepts of risks and vulnerability According to IPCC (2014) Vulnerability due to climate change Adaptation Action Bangladesh (INDCs, 2015) Key Areas to address adverse impacts of climate change Food security, livelihood and health protection (incl. water security) Comprehensive disaster management Coastal Zone Management including Salinity Intrusion control Flood Control and Erosion protection Building Climate Resilient Infrastructure Increased Rural Electrification Enhanced Urban Resilience Ecosystem based adaptation (including forestry co-management) Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal areas Policy and Institutional Capacity Building http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf Adaptation Priorities for Bangladesh (BCCSAP, 2009) http://www.climatechangecell.org.bd/Documents/climate_change_strategy2009.pdf Adaptation measures for major natural disasters of Bangladesh Disaster Adaptation options Adaptation options Flood • Flood management – Dams and reservoirs – flood management infrastructure – dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund – sluices, – pump stations, – flood Evacuation shelters Drought Management • Barrages • Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells. • Evacuation • Shelter management • Flood forecasting system – Lead time, – Language – Dissemination Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane • Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee • Coastal afforestation • Cyclone Shelters – Evacuation – Shelter management Erosion control measures • River training • Cyclone forecasts and Warning – Lead time, – Language – Dissemination Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge River Bank Erosion Strategic Approaches Considered for Agricultural Adaptation [Source: CEGIS (2009)] Strategy Measure Brief Description of Measure Increase food Drought tolerant Introduction of drought tolerant crops such as through crops/ vegetables groundnuts, watermelon, etc. agriculture Floating gardens Cultivation of vegetables on floating beds of water hyacinth (hydroponics) Low-cost irrigation Demonstration of treadle pump and other simple technologies for irrigation Homestead Cultivation of vegetables and fruits on gardening homestead plots for consumption and market Saline tolerant non- Introduction of saline tolerant varieties of chili, rice crops mustard, maize and potato Strategic Approaches Considered for Agricultural Adaptation [Source: CEGIS (2009)] Strategy Increase income through alternative livelihoods Measure Embankment cropping Brief Description of Measure Prawn fish poly-culture Cultivation of beans, gourds, okra & other vegetables on embankments surrounding prawn ghers (ponds) Using small area of land, small water body, and surrounding embankments to produce rice, fish and vegetables Small-scale fish farming in cages, implemented in household ponds or common water bodies Prawn and fish culture in fresh-water ghers (ponds) Shrimp fish poly-culture Shrimp and fish culture in salt-water ghers (ponds) Cattle rearing Poultry rearing Raising cattle for consumption and market Raising chickens to produce meat and eggs for consumption and market Crab fattening Collection, rearing and feeding of crabs for a period of 15 days to increase their market value Raising ducks to produce meat and eggs for consumption and market Integrated farming systems Cage aquaculture Duck rearing Goat rearing Raising goats for consumption and market Pig rearing Raising pigs for consumption and market Apiculture & honey Beekeeping and processing of honey for market processing Nursery & homestead Establishment of community nurseries and distribution (with handling afforestation instructions) of indigenous varieties of tree saplings (mango, coconut, sofeda, korai, guava, mehaguni, neem, kewra, etc.) to beneficiaries for homestead planting Saline tolerant tree plantation Planting of saline tolerant fruit and timber trees for longer term income generation Mele (reed) cultivation Cultivation of reeds used to produce mats that are widely used for sitting Barriers to adaptation Financial Increased realisation that available funding may not always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in case of extreme events Therefore, Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring Institutional Social and Cultural Technological Informational Linking adaptation and sustainable development Emerging realization of the links between climate change and sustainable development IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development’. It has further been understood that climate change adaptation and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for achieving development goals such as improving food security, provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and access to other resources. Mainstreaming adaptation Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage concessional developmental funds? Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to: Assess implications of climate change for project benefits? Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to climate change? Related question: How can we incrementally adjust project design or implementation to enhance climate change related benefits? Mainstreaming in practice Building ownership among stakeholders Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable development programmes CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. Mitigation can mean using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment more energy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior (UNEP, 2016) http://www.unep.org/climatechange/mitigation/ Limiting global warming The Paris Agreement “well below” 2 degrees Celsius efforts To pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C”. National emission targets regularly reviewed and tightened Net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by mid21st century Bildquelle: https://www.wmo.int/media/ Developed countries provide 100 billion USD per year between 2020-2025 Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate change last winter would lead to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of the century, The Paris Agreement was a historical achievement for the world's response to climate change, aiming at limiting warming to well 2°C. furthermore agreed that they should strive to limit temperature rise even further, to 1.5°C. Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate change last winter would lead to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of the century, according to a new analysis published in the journal Nature. The researchers also examined what additional measures would be necessary after 2030 to limit future temperature rise to 2°C or 1.5°C in 2100. Rogelj et al (2016) Greenhouse Gas Emitter http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters Reduction of CO2 emissions by Major greenhouse gas emitters in their by Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs Country Base year EU 1990 Pledge to cut emissions 40% by 2030 US 2005 26% to 28% by 2025 China 2005 India 2005 lower emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030 33 to 35 % by 2030 Brazil 2005 37% http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php Reduction of CO2 pledges by South Asian countries in their INDCs Country CO2 emission reduction Pledge in INDCs Afghanistan 13.6% conditional Bangladesh 5% unconditional and 15% conditional Bhutan Pledge to be carbon neutral & to make 60% of the country forest India Maldives 33 to 35 % by 2030 compared to 2005 levels & 40% of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources 10% unconditional 24% conditional Pakistan No measurable target Sri Lanka 7% unconditional 23% conditional http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) Mitigation Projected emissions reductions in the power, transport and industry (energy) by 2030 http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf Mitigation Program (BCCSAP, 2009) http://www.climatechangecell.org.bd/Documents/climate_change_strategy2009.pdf Conditional Mitigation (INDCs, 2015) http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf UN REDD Program The United Nations Collaborative Program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries was launched in 2008 and builds on the convening role and technical expertise of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The UN-REDD Programme supports nationally led REDD+ processes and promotes the informed and meaningful involvement of all stakeholders, including indigenous peoples and other forestdependent communities, in national and international REDD+ implementation. CLIMATE FINANCE Climate finance pledges at COP20 and COP21 https://www.odi.org/opinion/10196-infographic-climate-finance-pledges-cop21-paris Receipts of Multi-lateral and Bi-lateral climate finance (As of October 2015) http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/data Climate Finance in Bangladesh Bangladesh is mobilizing to get funding from the Green Climate fund In the past Bangladesh has established two climate funds: Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) by own budget allocation of $100m Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) is a multi-donor trust fund for climate change has channeled over $188m in grant funds. http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/data CPD, 2015 Way Forward for Bangladesh Bangladesh has a good strategic framework aimed at tackling climate change National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA) of 2005 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) of 2009. http://cpd.org.bd/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Reflections-on-COP21-Bangladesh-Perspective.pdf Increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change. Achieve low-carbon and resilient development. Beyond making financial commitments, industrialized countries must facilitate technology transfers, and more generally, adaptation to a low-carbon economy. Being one of the most vulnerable countries, Bangladesh must push for urgency to take immediate measures for limiting global warming below 1.5 degrees. http://www.clickittefaq.com/cop22-marrakech-why-bangladesh-must-push-for-a-climate-target-of-1-5c/ Thank you