Download Climate CHANGE ADAPTATION

DSMHT 403: Climate Modelling and
Adaptation
Lecture-10: Adaptation and Mitigation
of Climate change
Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)
24 January 2016
Outline
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Climate Change Adaptation and needs of
Adaptation
Adaptation on various sectors in Bangladesh
Barriers and Mainstreaming of Adaptation
Climate Change Mitigation and Paris
Agreement of 2015
Mitigation measures proposed by INDCs
Climate Finance in Bangladesh
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Climate Change Adaptation
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Adaptation is a response to global
warming and climate change, that seeks to
reduce the vulnerability of social and
biological systems to relatively sudden
change and thus offset the effects of
global warming (UNFCC, 2010).
Why is adaptation important?
Regardless of mitigation, we are faced
with a finite, and significant degree of
anthropogenic climate change
 Managing climate risk is likely to be
important for sustainable development
 For both these reasons, adaptation should
be an important part of policy response to
climate change
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Additional risk due to global
warming (IPCC, 2014)
Measuring adaptation
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Hazard: the threat of a stress or perturbation to a system
and what it values.
Exposure: the contact between a system and a
perturbation or stress.
Vulnerability: the degree to which a person, system or
unit is likely to experience harm due to exposure to
perturbations or stresses.
Sensitivity: the extent to which a system or its
components is likely to experience harm, and the
magnitude of that harm, due to exposure to perturbations
or stresses.
Risk: the conditional probability and magnitude of harm
attendant on exposure to a perturbation or stress.
Measuring Adaptation
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Adaptation: A system response to perturbations or
stress that is sufficiently fundamental to alter the system
itself, sometimes shifting the system to a new state.
Resilience: the ability of a system to absorb
perturbations or stresses without changes in its
fundamental structure or function that would drive the
system into a different state (or extinction).
Adaptive capacity: the capacity of a system to adapt if
the environment where the system exists is changing. It
is applied to e.g., ecological systems and human social
systems. As applied to ecological systems, the adaptive
capacity is determined by: genetic diversity of species.
Concepts of risks and vulnerability
According to IPCC (2014)
Vulnerability due to climate
change
Adaptation Action Bangladesh
(INDCs, 2015)
Key Areas to address adverse impacts of climate change
Food security, livelihood and health protection (incl. water security)
Comprehensive disaster management
Coastal Zone Management including Salinity Intrusion control
Flood Control and Erosion protection
Building Climate Resilient Infrastructure
Increased Rural Electrification
Enhanced Urban Resilience
Ecosystem based adaptation (including forestry co-management)
Community based conservation of wetlands and coastal areas
Policy and Institutional Capacity Building
http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf
Adaptation Priorities for Bangladesh (BCCSAP,
2009)
http://www.climatechangecell.org.bd/Documents/climate_change_strategy2009.pdf
Adaptation measures for major natural
disasters of Bangladesh
Disaster
Adaptation options
Adaptation options
Flood
• Flood management
– Dams and reservoirs
– flood management infrastructure
– dykes/embankment/ polder/ levee/bund
– sluices,
– pump stations,
– flood Evacuation shelters
Drought Management
• Barrages
• Irrigation facilities, pump stations, tube wells.
• Evacuation
• Shelter management
• Flood forecasting system
– Lead time,
– Language
– Dissemination
Storm surge and Cyclone/Typhoon/ Hurricane
• Coastal dykes/embankment/ polder/levee
• Coastal afforestation
• Cyclone Shelters
– Evacuation
– Shelter management
Erosion control measures
• River training
• Cyclone forecasts and Warning
– Lead time,
– Language
– Dissemination
Drought
Cyclone and
Storm Surge
River Bank
Erosion
Strategic Approaches Considered for Agricultural
Adaptation [Source: CEGIS (2009)]
Strategy
Measure
Brief Description of Measure
Increase food Drought
tolerant Introduction of drought tolerant crops such as
through
crops/ vegetables groundnuts, watermelon, etc.
agriculture
Floating gardens
Cultivation of vegetables on floating beds of
water hyacinth (hydroponics)
Low-cost irrigation Demonstration of treadle pump and other simple
technologies for irrigation
Homestead
Cultivation of vegetables and fruits on
gardening
homestead plots for consumption and market
Saline tolerant non- Introduction of saline tolerant varieties of chili,
rice crops
mustard, maize and potato
Strategic Approaches Considered for Agricultural
Adaptation [Source: CEGIS (2009)]
Strategy
Increase income
through alternative
livelihoods
Measure
Embankment cropping
Brief Description of Measure
Prawn fish poly-culture
Cultivation of beans, gourds, okra & other vegetables on embankments
surrounding prawn ghers (ponds)
Using small area of land, small water body, and surrounding
embankments to produce rice, fish and vegetables
Small-scale fish farming in cages, implemented in household ponds or
common water bodies
Prawn and fish culture in fresh-water ghers (ponds)
Shrimp fish poly-culture
Shrimp and fish culture in salt-water ghers (ponds)
Cattle rearing
Poultry rearing
Raising cattle for consumption and market
Raising chickens to produce meat and eggs for consumption and market
Crab fattening
Collection, rearing and feeding of crabs for a period of 15 days to
increase their market value
Raising ducks to produce meat and eggs for consumption and market
Integrated farming systems
Cage aquaculture
Duck rearing
Goat rearing
Raising goats for consumption and market
Pig rearing
Raising pigs for consumption and market
Apiculture
&
honey Beekeeping and processing of honey for market
processing
Nursery
&
homestead Establishment of community nurseries and distribution (with handling
afforestation
instructions) of indigenous varieties of tree saplings (mango, coconut,
sofeda, korai, guava, mehaguni, neem, kewra, etc.) to beneficiaries for
homestead planting
Saline tolerant tree plantation Planting of saline tolerant fruit and timber trees for longer term income
generation
Mele (reed) cultivation
Cultivation of reeds used to produce mats that are widely used for sitting
Barriers to adaptation
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Financial
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Increased realisation that available funding may not
always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of
rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in
case of extreme events
 Therefore, Insurance may be an instrument worth
exploring
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Institutional
Social and Cultural
Technological
Informational
Linking adaptation and sustainable
development
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Emerging realization of the links between climate change and
sustainable development
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IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement
of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting
sustainable development’.
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It has further been understood that climate change adaptation
and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for
achieving development goals such as improving food security,
provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and
access to other resources.
Mainstreaming adaptation
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Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage
concessional developmental funds?
Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in
infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector
How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to:
 Assess implications of climate change for project benefits?
 Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to
climate change?
Related question:
 How can we incrementally adjust project design or
implementation to enhance climate change related benefits?
Mainstreaming in practice
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Building ownership among stakeholders
Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable
development programmes
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
Climate Change Mitigation
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Climate Change Mitigation refers to efforts
to reduce or prevent emission of
greenhouse gases. Mitigation can mean
using new technologies and renewable
energies, making older equipment more
energy efficient, or changing management
practices or consumer behavior (UNEP,
2016)
http://www.unep.org/climatechange/mitigation/
Limiting global warming
The Paris Agreement
“well below”
2 degrees Celsius efforts
To pursue efforts to limit
the temperature increase to
1.5C”.
National emission
targets regularly
reviewed and tightened
Net-zero emissions
of
greenhouse gases by mid21st century
Bildquelle:
https://www.wmo.int/media/
Developed countries
provide 100 billion USD per
year between 2020-2025
Pledges made for the Paris agreement on climate
change last winter would lead to global temperature rise
of 2.6 to 3.1°C by the end of the century,
The Paris Agreement was a historical
achievement for the world's response to
climate change, aiming at limiting
warming to well 2°C. furthermore agreed
that they should strive to limit
temperature rise even further, to 1.5°C.
Pledges made for the Paris agreement
on climate change last winter would lead
to global temperature rise of 2.6 to 3.1°C
by the end of the century, according to a
new analysis published in the journal
Nature.
The researchers also examined what
additional measures would be necessary
after 2030 to limit future temperature rise
to 2°C or 1.5°C in 2100.
Rogelj et al (2016)
Greenhouse Gas Emitter
http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters
Reduction of CO2 emissions by Major
greenhouse gas emitters in their by
Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions or INDCs
Country
Base year
EU
1990
Pledge to cut
emissions
40% by 2030
US
2005
26% to 28% by 2025
China
2005
India
2005
lower emissions per unit
of GDP by 60% to 65%
by 2030
33 to 35 % by 2030
Brazil
2005
37%
http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php
Reduction of CO2 pledges by
South Asian countries in their
INDCs
Country
CO2 emission reduction Pledge in INDCs
Afghanistan
13.6% conditional
Bangladesh
5% unconditional and 15% conditional
Bhutan
Pledge to be carbon neutral &
to make 60% of the country forest
India
Maldives
33 to 35 % by 2030 compared to 2005 levels &
40% of electricity from non-fossil fuel sources
10% unconditional 24% conditional
Pakistan
No measurable target
Sri Lanka
7% unconditional 23% conditional
http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) Mitigation
Projected emissions reductions in the power, transport and
industry (energy) by 2030
http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf
Mitigation Program (BCCSAP, 2009)
http://www.climatechangecell.org.bd/Documents/climate_change_strategy2009.pdf
Conditional Mitigation (INDCs, 2015)
http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/Bangladesh%20First/INDC_2015_of_Bangladesh.pdf
UN REDD Program
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The United Nations Collaborative Program on Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing
Countries was launched in 2008 and builds on the convening role
and technical expertise of the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP).
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The UN-REDD Programme supports nationally led REDD+
processes and promotes the informed and meaningful involvement
of all stakeholders, including indigenous peoples and other forestdependent communities, in national and international REDD+
implementation.
CLIMATE FINANCE
Climate finance pledges at
COP20 and COP21
https://www.odi.org/opinion/10196-infographic-climate-finance-pledges-cop21-paris
Receipts of Multi-lateral and Bi-lateral climate finance
(As of October 2015)
http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/data
Climate Finance in
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is mobilizing to get funding from the Green Climate fund
In the past Bangladesh has established two climate funds:
 Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) by own budget allocation
of $100m
 Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF) is a multi-donor
trust fund for climate change has channeled over $188m in grant funds.
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http://www.climatefundsupdate.org/data
CPD, 2015
Way Forward for Bangladesh
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Bangladesh has a good strategic framework aimed at
tackling climate change
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National Action Plan on Adaptation (NAPA) of 2005
 Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) of
2009.
http://cpd.org.bd/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Reflections-on-COP21-Bangladesh-Perspective.pdf
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Increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change.
Achieve low-carbon and resilient development.
Beyond making financial commitments, industrialized
countries must facilitate technology transfers, and
more generally, adaptation to a low-carbon economy.
Being one of the most vulnerable countries,
Bangladesh must push for urgency to take immediate
measures for limiting global warming below 1.5
degrees.
http://www.clickittefaq.com/cop22-marrakech-why-bangladesh-must-push-for-a-climate-target-of-1-5c/
Thank you