Download Climate_Change_CARDS-2011 - Willits Economic Localization

The Active Carbon Cycle
1
The atmosphere
holds about 750 GtC
Dead Organisms
The oceans hold about 40,000 GtC
Transition Training 2011.
Fossil
Carbon
Vegetation holds
about 600 GtC Soils hold about
1600GtC
The Active Carbon Cycle
1
• The carbon dioxide cycle is a natural one ,and one that has been in
dynamic balance and undergone many fluctuations and cycles over
millions of years.
• There is a balance between the seas and the land and the atmosphere.
Carbon is locked up in the seas in plankton and other marine life, and
dissolved in the water. Carbon is also locked up in plant matter on the
earth (active carbon cycle), and in fossil deposits (inactive carbon cycle) of
oil, natural gas, and coal.
• The destabilizing factor in the carbon cycle is that we have taken millions
of years of locked up (inactive) carbon from fossil fuels and put that carbon
into the atmosphere in just 150 years. The land and the sea carbon sinks
are unable to absorb this excess carbon.
• GtC = Giga (109) Tons of C
Transition Training 2011.
What is Climate Change?
GREENHOUSE GASES TRAP HEAT
Transition Training 2011.
Transition Training 2009
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Define Climate Change
(Also known as global warming, climate instability, and climate disruption)
“Climate change" refers to significant change from one global climatic state to
another. It is not the fluctuations of weather on a daily, weekly, or yearly
basis.
What is causing Climate change or Global Warming?
Humans are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and other
“greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere.
The largest greenhouse gas we’re releasing into the atmosphere is carbon
dioxide (CO2): We’re cutting down forests and taking “fossil” fuels out of
the ground and burning them. Coal, oil (which includes propane), tar
sands, oil shale, natural gas (methane) are all fuels that come from
fossilized plants and animals on the earth many millions of years ago. By
digging up these fuels and burning them, we add large amounts of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, and
triggering massive changes.
Is this a theory?
All science is theory. The real question is: What is the evidence?
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What is the Evidence?
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3
What is the Evidence?
Is the climate changing and are humans causing it?
Main Point
• Yes, as much as a scientific theory can be proven. It has been confirmed by
the International Panel for Climate Change is a worldwide group of scientists
who have reviewed all available scientific research.
Detail
• The 4th IPCC report published in 2007 states…
1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
2. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed
increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations.
(This is scientific ‘speak’ for yes!)
•
This United Nations study, which was awarded the 2007 Nobel peace prize,
was the most comprehensive study of peer reviewed climate research ever
undertaken, and one of the most comprehensive studies of any scientific
question ever. Its conclusions are that there is no more debate, the science is
clear. The only question is how fast can we act to create real reductions in
atmospheric CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases.
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What are the problems with runaway Climate Change?
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What are the main problems with runaway Climate Change?
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“Billions of people will be condemned to poverty and
much of civilization will collapse"
This is the stark warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet. Backed by
diverse organizations such as UNESCO, the World Bank, the Rockefeller Foundation and the US
Army the 2009 State of the Future report draws on contributions from 2,700 experts around the
globe.
Types of Impacts:
•
Loss of agricultural products -- food supplies
•
Loss of fresh water supplies to at least 12% of the world’s population
•
Extreme weather. ‘one in a hundred year’ storms becoming common
•
Sea level rises, leading to land loss and tens (and potentially hundreds) of millions of refugees.
Flooding of 196 of the worlds largest cities (over 1 million population).
•
Increased droughts/desertification. This slide is of the Australian Murray River system, which has
faced an extreme multi year drought. The government has had to take the decision to allocate
whatever water there is to the cities rather than allow farmers to irrigate their crops. This has lead to
a decrease in the Australian wheat harvest of 35% this year. Australia is one of the bread baskets of
the world.
•
Increased and more severe floods.
•
Acidic seas – killing marine life and fish species that feed millions of people
•
Species loss due to temperature zones migrating @ the rate of 2km/yr. This will accelerate species
loss due to habitat loss, as many species of plants and animals will be unable to migrate with the
temperature. We face a potential of 50% or more loss of life on earth. We are depended on the web
of life for our survival.
•
Increasing war and conflict. Eleven retired U.S. generals warn that 50% of the world’s nations could
become unstable because of stresses.
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CO2 Levels Over the Past 60,000 Years
390 ppm in 2009
350 ppm in 1988
Ron Oxburgh
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CO2 Levels Over the Past 60,000 Years
Main points
• This shows data collected from ice around the world. Air bubbles in the ice enable
scientists to measure the amount of CO2 (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere over the
last 60,000 years.
• As you can see, CO2 levels have risen and fallen, and then rose dramatically 10,000
years ago.
• To keep the climate from warming more than 2 degrees C we would have to keep
CO2 concentration to below 350 ppm (parts per million of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere).
• We are currently at 390 ppm without counting the other GHG which are Methane,
nitrous oxide, CFCs. We passed 350 ppm CO2 in 1988, two decades ago.
Additional Points
• The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago and lead to a rise in CO2, and if we went
back a few 100,000 years we would see this pattern of rise and fall.
• The red line shows the impact of humans inventing agriculture, and human
populations growing.
• The green line shows the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1850, and
growth in the burning of coal, then oil and other fossil fuels.
• The orange line is the 20th & 21st century, with exponential growth in the burning of
coal, oil, natural gas, deforestation, population, large-scale farms with carbon
releases from the soil, meat consumption, etc.
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Temperatures Far Above the past
10,000 Years of Human Civilization
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5
Temperature change (Degrees Celsius)
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Average temperature over past
10,000 years = 15°°FC (59)
6.4°C
6
IPCC (2007) forecast: +4°C with
band of uncertainty from 2.46.4°
3
Mesopotamia
flourishes
Agriculture
emerges
2
1
0
Holocene
Optimum
-1
2.4°C
Vikings in
Greenland
Medieval
Warming
1940
Little ice age in
Europe (15th-16th
centuries)
21st century:
very rapid rise
-2
-3
End of last
ice age
Younger
Dryas
-4
-5
20,000
10,000
2,000
1,000
200
100
Now
+100
Number of years before present (quasi-log scale)
adapted from Robert Corell
Adaptation_to_Global_Change_in_the_Arctic_SRos6.pdf
Transition Training 2011
© 2008 Sustainability Institute
10,000 years of Human Civilization Within Less
than 2 Degrees Fahrenheit
• For all of human civilization, the earth’s temperature has fluctuated
between a narrow range of about 1.8 Degrees Fahrenheit (roughly 1
Degree Celsius).
• Now our burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas), burning of wood for
electricity, deforestation, industrial agriculture (methane from
livestock feedlots, wastes, loss of carbon from the soil, etc.), and
other human activities is putting a great amount of carbon dioxide
(CO2), methane and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
• Human activities are putting far more carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere than has existed since the beginning of human
civilization – over 10,000 years of human recorded history.
• We now risk devastation of the ecosystems that have sustained:
– The development and enormous growth of cities,
– Resource extraction and production on a massive scale,
– Settlement of and farming in the desert and other inhospitable places,
and
– Human population that has grown from a few million to almost 7 billion.
• All of this is now at risk.
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Danger Increases the Longer We Stay
Above 350 parts per million CO2
To Avoid:
7
We Must Get CO2 ppm Down To:
1. Losing Arctic Sea Ice
300-325
(loss of food, plants, habitat, species)
2. Losing Ice Sheets/Raising Sea Levels 300-350
(flooding 196 of world’s biggest cities (populations of 1 million+)
3. Shifting Climatic Zones
300-350
(loss of food, plants, habitat, species)
4. Alpine Water Supplies
300-350
(loss of food & water for hundreds of millions of people)
5. Ocean Acidification
300-350
(loss of fish, habitat, species, ecosystems)
Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm
*assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease
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© 2008 Sustainability Institute
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The Need for an Urgent Response
• Danger increases the longer we stay above 350 parts per million (ppm) of carbon
dioxide (CO2).
• Scientists say we need to keep temperature rises to less than 2 degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels (c. 1850).
• Emissions from coal, oil, deforestation, etc. from decades ago have not yet had
their full impact. We are perilously close to reaching this 2 degree Celsius (3.6
degree Fahrenheit) upper limit with the emissions already in the pipeline. It takes
decades to years for the carbon to get fully into the atmosphere.
The Paleoclimatic Record – the record of climates over earth’s history -shows that staying above 350 parts per million will fundamentally change
the world. We will risk sending the planet, very, very quickly, into an
entirely different temperature/climate system.
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Ocean Carbon Sinks
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/oceancolor/additional/sciencefocus/oceancolor/additional/science-focus/space/ocdst_global_carbon_cycle.shtml
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Ocean Carbon Sinks
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The burning of fossil fuel releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As a
result, carbon dioxide has been steadily increasing in the atmosphere and oceans
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
Over the same period of time, deforestation has eliminated a significant fraction of
the terrestrial plant life, affecting the rate at which land vegetation can remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Current climate models predict that the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide
and other "greenhouse gasses" in the Earth's atmosphere will produce an
increase in average global temperature of some 1-5 degrees Celsius in the next
half-century. The impact of a global warming is difficult to predict but would be
accompanied by major changes in precipitation patterns and land use throughout
much of the world.
Approximately half of the carbon dioxide newly released by the burning of fossil
fuels is believed to be absorbed by the ocean. However, the oceanic sinks for this
newly injected carbon have not yet been clearly identified, nor has the apparent
rate of carbon absorption been satisfactorily explained. These uncertainties focus
attention on the role of phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/oceancolor/additional/science-focus/oceancolor/additional/sciencefocus/space/ocdst_global_carbon_cycle.shtml
?
Albedo
Effect
?
Ocean
Warming +
CO2/CH4
Release
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?
?
?
?
?
Water Vapor in
Atmosphere
?
?
?
Warming
in Our Current
Interglacial
Climate
Melting
Permafrost +
CH4 Release
Heat Effect
on Land
Ecosystems
Ocean
Acidification
Transition Training 2011
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Runaway Global Warming
Once global temperatures rise to certain levels positive feedback loops will cause further releases of greenhouse gases,
leading to runaway climate change.
As our current climate warms, positive feedback mechanisms can kick in, accelerating the warming process. (Note how
the smaller arrow-circles reinforce the motion of the large, central circle -- warming of our climate.) This process can
reach a tipping point beyond which we will not be able to reverse the process. No one can predict the timing of these
events (because the climate system is so large, slow to change, and difficult to measure). However, we can say that of
the mechanisms shown here, four are already showing signs of stirring:
1)
The albedo effect: reduced ice allows greater absorption of sunlight by water. (The first
ice-free summer in the Arctic is now estimated at 2037, perhaps as early as 2020.)
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-summer-may-be-icefree-in-30-years-1662240.html
2) Stressed terrestrial ecosystems release more CO2, and can burn, releasing more Carbon.
(western US forest mortality has doubled)
http://wwwp.dailyclimate.org/tdc-newsroom/trees/climate-change-has-doubled-forest-mortality
3) The acidification of the oceans causes plankton to create their CaCO3 shells, reducing the
amount of CO2 withdrawn from the atmosphere. (Ocean Acidification has seen a 30% increase
since the industrial revolution, a rate unprecedented in the geologic record).
http://ioc3.unesco.org/oanet/OAdocs/SPM-lorez.pdf
4) Permafrost melting releases methane (CH4)
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE56S53E20090729
Trends in ocean warming and water vapor in the atmosphere are still not well quantified.
References reflect the latest science as of August, 2009.
Graphic was adapted from the Tipping Point (http://wakeupfreakout.org/film/tipping.html) Sustainability Institute
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Impact: Hardiness Zone Changes
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Here’s an example showing how temperatures are rising...
Farmers and gardeners use Hardiness Zones to determine what plants
will survive in a given region. Hardiness zones are based on mean
annual low temperatures.
This map shows the changes in the Hardiness Zones of the
US
between 1990 and 2006. It reveals that in the eastern two
thirds of the US, many of the zones have moved North
50-150 miles since 1990!
Observe how zone 3 has changed in the northern US.
Source: Arbor Day Foundation
http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm
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Freshwater Consumption as a
% of Annual Average Precipitation
•
•
•
•
Yellow
Light Green
Dark Green
Blue
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<=75%
75-100%
100-150%
>150%
This graphic depicts where the US actively mining or close to actively mining its
groundwater. Areas in yellow will likely have better chances of resiliency in water
supply, to short term drought.
Climate change models predict that the Southwest and Southeast will become warmer
and drier over time, while the Northeast and Northwest will become warmer and wetter
over time (e.g. More winter flooding, but with drier summers.) If another dustbowl were
to occur in the Midwest, where would affected populations go?
Source: US Department of Agriculture
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US Drought Monitor 2002
•
2002 was an unusually dry summer in many of the states. However the graphic
reflects just how serious drought can be in the US. Climate change models
predict that the American southwest will continue to become increasingly drier
over the next 50 years.
•
The southeastern US recently experienced its worst drought in 113 years.
However, on average, this area can be expected to have greater resilience
•
Portions of the US are experiencing drought annually. “Megafires are now
routinely occurring in many parts of the US on both public and private lands.”
US Congressional Quarterly, WILDFIRES AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS,
published Nov. 7, 2007.
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Danger Increases the Longer We Stay
Above 350 parts per million CO2
400
13
We must get back down quickly.
380
360
Atmospheric
CO2 (ppm)
340
350 ppm
320
300
280
260
1500
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1600
1700
1800
Year
© 2008 Sustainability Institute
1900
2000
2100
CO2 levels are already
beyond safe limits
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• CO2 emissions are already more than twice the rate of
removals
– This calls for a future where we leave fossil fuels in the ground
and protect and restores of forests and other carbon sinks.
– Policy and negotiations need to be tied not to what seems
politically feasible but to what is consistent with the latest science.
• The climate system reacts slowly to change
– We can't afford to wait and see the consequences of our actions.
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© 2008 Sustainability Institute
Responses to Peak Oil
14
& Climate Change
PEAK OIL
• Burn everything!
• Relaxed drilling
regulations
• Biofuels
• Tar sands and
non- conventional
oils
• Resource
nationalism
• Resource Wars
PO+CC=
Systems Re-Think
• Planned
Re-localization
• Local Resilience
• Energy Descent
Action Plan
Transition Training 2011
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering
• Carbon capture and
storage
• International
emissions trading
• Climate adaptation
• Nuclear power
Response to PO and CC
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•
Looking at peak oil alone you look for replacements – tar sands,
remote fields such as the Arctic, Antarctic, bio fuels, coal to liquids.
•
If we don’t reduce oil dependency in rich countries there will inevitably
be either climate disaster from replacements or resource wars.
•
Looking at climate change alone you may look for energy intensive
solutions to mitigate climate change, including nuclear.
•
When PO and CC are taken together you have to redesign the system
– a low energy, re-localised and resilient system is the only viable
future.
•
See UK’s DECC 2050 Pathway Calculator, an online tool designed to
illustrate different ways to achieve Britain’s legally-binding
commitment to cut emissions 80 per cent by mid-century.
Transition Training 2011 Source for DECC link: http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=1104#more-1104
The Anthropogenic Carbon Cycle
15
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/anthropogenic-carbon-cycle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s 4th Assessment Report by Working Group One (IPCC AR4 WG1)
The Anthropogenic Carbon Cycle
15
• The natural and perturbed carbon cycle between the land, atmosphere and
ocean.
• Carbon dioxide cycles between the atmosphere, oceans and land
biosphere. Its removal from the atmosphere involves a range of processes
with different time scales.
• About 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within
30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The
remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has continued to increase
and is now almost 100 ppm above its pre-industrial level. The annual
mean CO2 growth rate was significantly higher for the period from 2000
to 2005 (4.1 ± 0.1 GtC yr–1) than it was in the 1990s (3.2 ± 0.1 GtC yr–
1). Annual emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel burning and cement
production increased from a mean of 6.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr–1 in the 1990s to
7.2 ± 0.3 GtC yr–1 for 2000 to 2005.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/anthropogenic-carbon-cycle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change’s 4th Assessment Report by Working Group One (IPCC AR4 WG1)
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Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/globalco2flows.cfm
Original source material from the Marion Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences.
Visible sunlight passes through the atmosphere without
being absorbed…
16
1. Some of the sunlight striking the earth is absorbed and converted to
heat, which warms the surface.
2. The surface emits infrared radiation to the atmosphere,
3. Where some of it is absorbed by greenhouse gases
4. And re-emitted toward the surface;
5. Some of the heat is not trapped by greenhouse gases and escapes
into space.
6. Human activities that emit additional greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere increase the amount of infrared radiation that gets
absorbed before escaping into space, thus enhancing the
greenhouse effect and amplifying the warming of the earth.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/globalco2flows.cfm
Original source material from the Marion Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences.
Global CO2 Flows, Carbon
17
Reservoirs, and Reservoir Changes
Tan colored pool is decreasing in size. Blue colored pools are increasing. Intensity of blue
indicates magnitude of stock change. Numbers in red indicate estimated total amount of
carbon in reservoir. Numbers in green indicate average annual change in amount of
carbon in reservoir.
Gigatons (Gt) = 109 metric tons.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/globalco2flows.cfm
Original source material from Bolin et al. in IPCC, 2000a; Houghton, 1997
Global CO2 Flows, Carbon
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Reservoirs, and Reservoir Changes
• The annual average human-induced flows of CO2 - 6.3 gigatons (Gt)
from fossil-fuel combustion and 1.6 Gt from deforestation in the 1990s
- are a small fraction of total CO2 flows. However, these flows are
resulting in increased carbon in the ocean and atmospheric
reservoirs.
• Anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O comprise a much larger
share of total emissions of these gases than is the case for CO2.
Approximately 70 percent of the 550 million metric tons (MMT) of
CH4 emitted annually and about half of the 14 MMT of N2O
emitted annually are due to human activities.
(Bolin et al. in IPCC, 2000a).
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/globalco2flows.cfm
Original source material from Bolin et al. in IPCC, 2000a; Houghton, 1997
Global Surface Temperature Trends
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Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/temp.cfm
Data Source: Brohan, P.J.J.Kennedy,I. Haris S.F.B.Tett and P.D.Jones 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed
temperature changes a new dataset from 1850 Journal of geophysical Research 111:D12106. de:TC.T029/2003.AC09974. © Crown
copyright 2006, data provided by the Met Office.
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Global Surface Temperature Trends
• The recent increase in concentration of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere is the result of human activities, mainly
the burning of fossil fuels. As the concentration of CO2 in
the atmosphere has increased, so has the average
surface temperature of the earth.
• The relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration
and surface temperature is shown here for the past 150
years.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/temp.cfm
Data Source: Brohan, P.J.J.Kennedy,I. Haris S.F.B.Tett and P.D.Jones 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed
temperature changes a new dataset from 1850 Journal of geophysical Research 111:D12106. de:TC.T029/2003.AC09974. ©
Crown copyright 2006, data provided by the Met Office.
Long-Term Global Surface Temperature Trends 19
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/longco2temp.cfm
Data Source: Atmospheric CO2 prior to 3,000 years ago and Antarctic Surface temperture prior to 100 years ago: JP Petit, Jouze
et.al. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399-429-436.
Pre-industrial CO2 40-3000 years ago: indermuhle A. T.F. Stocker. F. et.al. 1999. Holocene carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2
trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, Nature 398. 121-126. Modern CO2: Keeling C.C. and T.P. Whorf 2005. Atmospheric CO2
records from S.Tes in the SBO air sampling network in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Changes, Caron Dioxide
information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn. U.S.A.
Long-Term Global Surface
Temperature Trends
19
• As can been seen in this figure, throughout the millennia,
there has been a clear correlation between carbon dioxide
levels and average global surface temperatures. Looking
back even further than the past 150 years gives further
evidence of the human role in the enhanced greenhouse
effect.
• Scientists say the world is entering largely uncharted
territory as atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases
continue to rise. Today’s carbon dioxide levels are
substantially higher than anything that has occurred for
more than 400,000 years.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warmingbasics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/longco2temp.cfm
Comparison
Comparison of
of Model
Model &
& Observed
Observed Temperature
Temperature 20
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/motemp.cfm
Comparison of Model & Observed Temperature 20
•
This figure compares measurements of the Earth’s past temperature variations (shown
by the black line) with simulations of past temperature variations (shown by the red and
blue lines) in order to determine whether the major changes in temperature were
caused by natural or human-caused factors.
•
The black line shows observed surface temperature variations from the average. The
blue and red lines show computer model results when past temperatures are simulated
including different drivers of the climate system. Natural drivers include solar radiation
and volcanic emissions, while anthropogenic (man-made) drivers include man-made
greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The blue line shows variation when natural
drivers are included in the calculations, while the red line shows variation when both
natural and anthropogenic drivers are included.
•
This figure shows that the combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers (the red
line) provides a better match to the observed temperatures (black line) than only
natural drivers (the blue line). Natural drivers alone can explain much of the
temperature change in the first half of the century, as demonstrated by the similarity
between the black and blue lines during that time period. As can be seen with the
close match between the red and black lines, human-produced drivers strongly
dominated the temperature change in the latter part of the 20th century.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/temp_ghg_trends/motemp.cfm
Comparison
of Model
Observed
Temperature 21
Impact:
Mean&Sea
Level Rise
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/slr.cfm
Impact: Mean Sea Level Rise
21
• One of the projected impacts of climate change is an
increase in sea level. This figure shows the results of
satellite measurements of the change in average global
sea level over time. The slope of the graph suggests that
the change in sea level is accelerating, which is expected
as a result of global warming.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/slr.cfm
Impact: Arctic Sea Ice Decline
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/seaice.cfm
22
Impact: Arctic Sea Ice Decline
22
• This figure compares the extent of the summer arctic sea
ice in 1979 with the extent of the sea ice in summer 2005.
Since 1979, more than 20% of the Polar Ice Cap has
melted away in response to increased surface air and
ocean temperatures.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/seaice.cfm
Impact: Late Summer Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm
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Impact: Late Summer Arctic Sea Ice Extent
23
• This figure demonstrates the trend in arctic sea ice extent,
as measured in September – the annual summer
minimum for sea ice extent – for each reporting year.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm
Impact: Extreme Weather - Texas
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Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Extreme Weather - Texas
24
• Texas climatologists have recently stated that the ongoing dry spell is the
worst one-year drought since Texas rainfall data started being
recorded in 1895. So far, Texas has only received 6.5 inches of the 16
inches that has normally accumulated by this time of year.
• For 55.8 percent of the state, the current drought is the worst on
record. No other drought was as bad in so many places. The previous
standard for a one year drought, 1925, can now only be considered the
worst ever in 14.6 percent of the state.
• For July, the statewide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is a
measure of dryness that takes both temperature and moisture into
account, recorded its lowest ever reading. This surpassed the worst July
readings for 1918, 1925 and 1956, the droughts of record in Texas.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Extreme Weather - Texas
25
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Extreme Weather - Texas
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•
This chart shows whether the twelve-month precipitation amounts for the period 18962011 were above or below normal, and by how much. With less than six inches of rain
since January and a 13 inch rainfall deficit since last August, this period of dryness is
unprecedented in recorded Texas history, significantly below the previous minimum
readings in the 115-year record.
•
Much longer droughts have occurred in the past. The worst extended drought remains
the massive 1950’s event when Texas suffered under drought conditions for 10 years
from the late 1940’s until the late 1950’s. In the 1918 case, severe dryness began in
1917 and peaked in 1918 before rebounding to wetter than normal conditions. As the
current drought has only been ongoing for the past 6-12 months, it can only be
described as the most acute in Texas history; it is nowhere near the longest—
yet.
Even though we can’t predict what will happen with individual droughts, this chart does
communicate useful information about drought risk in Texas going forward. The record
shows that 10-year droughts are possible. Going back even further in time,
climate data from tree rings shows that in the past, Texas has suffered through
droughts that are measured in multiple decades.
•
•
As for the future, there is 80 percent agreement among climate models that Texas
soils will get drier over this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to
grow.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Global Extreme Weather
26
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Global Extreme Weather
26
• What we know from the past climate record, how the trend fits with
our physical understanding of climate change, and what climate
models project for the future, is strong evidence of an increase in
drought risk that must be managed to avoid increasing costs to
citizens, communities, and businesses of the Lone Star state.
Residents, water managers, and community leaders in Texas would
do well to both prepare for the possibility that the current drought will
last longer than anticipated and that the future climate in Texas will be
at risk of more severe and longer droughts (regardless of how long
the current drought continues). The current drought represents an
opportunity for Texans to identify drought adaptations that will allow
them to better respond to the increased risks of a drier future.
Check the Pew Center's work on climate change and the risks of extreme weather.
Dan Huber is a Science & Policy Fellow at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.pewclimate.org/blog/filtered_results?tid_op=or&tid=3317&value_op=%3D&name_value=
Impact: Antarctic Ice Flows
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.fastcompany.com/1774708/watching-the-ice-flow-on-antarctica
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Impact:
Antarctic
Ice
Flows
Impact:
Antarctic
Ice
Impact: Antarctic IceFlows
Flows
27
•
Antarctica is not just a solid block of ice. It's a living, moving area, where floes slide
against each other. But just how they move has, until now, been a mystery shrouded in
the cold air of the South Pole. Scientists have now mapped currents of the Antarctic’s
ice, showing that it ebbs and flows a lot like water.
•
Using new satellite data, scientists have plotted exactly how the ice moves around the
South Pole, shining new light on exactly how much water is going to flood into the
ocean as the ice melts.
•
Knowing where it's going to melt and how water will then flow out of Antarctica will help
us better understand how rising oceans will affect cities around the world.
•
The mapping has led to new understanding of how water and ice will flow out of
Antarctica as climate change melts more of it. Scientists can now see that the coastal
ice is holding in vast oceans of glaciers in the center. Should that ice fail, those
glaciers could slide right into the ocean, adding a lot more water than scientists
previously thought. That's cause for alarm, but also the inkling of a potential
solution: Find some way to keep all that ice in the middle of Antarctica, where it
can't flood anyone.
[Hat tip: Smarter Planet]
[Image: UC Irvine]
Transition Training 2011. Source: http://www.fastcompany.com/1774708/watching-the-ice-flow-on-antarctica
Impact: Who suffers the most?
Transition Training 2011. Source: Cliff Kuang, http://www.fastcompany.com/1774708/watching-the-ice-flow-on-antarctica
28
Impact:
Antarctic
Ice
Flows
Impact:
Antarctic
Ice
Flows
Impact: Who suffers the
most?
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•
Westerners like you and me are the alpha consumers of the global marketplace -- never in the world's
history have humans ever had so much. Which sounds awesome, except we know now that everything
we consume comes with the cost of the carbons emitted to produce it.
•
Now, if the world were fair, we'd be the ones eventually footing that bill. But... the ones least responsible
for climate change are also the ones who pay the most dearly.
•
The map, produced by Jason Samson, a PhD candidate in McGill University’s Department of Natural
Resource Sciences, provides a quantitative measure of climate-change impacts; the red spots indicate
the places which stand to be damaged the most.
•
You'll see that they're clustered around the equator, for a simple reason: In places that are already hot,
it's difficult to farm and get enough potable water. When temperatures rise, those difficulties grow
exponentially. As Samson notes:
•
(Perhaps) the greatest looming problem lies not in the red zones, but in the cool blue swathes of China.
China is already the world's largest carbon emitter. Meanwhile their per capita incomes are tiny, but are
growing at astonishing speeds. As the Chinese assume the earning power of Westerners, their carbon
emissions will swell to staggering levels.
•
If this chart is right the Chinese won't feel global warming's effects as keenly as Africans, for example.
Climate change will continue to feel like someone else's problem -- and so, like us, the Chinese can just
go on getting rich. You can't blame them, and that's the tragedy.
Transition Training 2011. Source http://www.fastcodesign.com/1663381/infographic-of-the-day-when-the-earth-warms-who-suffers
Impact: Who suffers the most?
29
Highlights a stark tragedy:
Those who emit the most
will suffer least, meaning
the world's great powers
have little incentive to
address the problem.
The bigger and redder the
corresponding dot, the
worse things are.
Africa, has the lowest per
capita carbon emissions in
the world…yet almost no
region of Africa won't be
severely affected:
Transition Training 2011. Source: Cliff Kuang, http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662887/infographics-of-the-day-amid-climate-changesome-countries-luck-out
Impact: Who suffers the most?
29
While North
America doesn't
have quite the rosy
outlook as Western
Europe, we're
surrounded by
countries who can
only envy how well
we'll fare:
CATEGORIES:
• Farming
• Habitat
• Severe Weather
• Health
Transition Training 2011. Source: Cliff Kuang, http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662887/infographics-of-the-day-amid-climate-changesome-countries-luck-out
30
Impact: Who
suffers the most?
Highlights a stark tragedy:
Those who emit the most
will suffer least, meaning
the world's great powers
have little incentive to
address the problem.
Asia, meanwhile, fares a
bit better than Africa -- but
again, it's the most
economically vibrant
countries, such as Japan
and Australia, which
escape the worst impacts:
Transition Training 2011. Source: Cliff Kuang, http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662887/infographics-of-the-day-amid-climate-changesome-countries-luck-out
Impact: Who suffers the most?
30
Europe does better
still -- in fact, only
Eastern Europe is
under dire threat.
Western Europe,
meanwhile, is
relatively
unscathed:
CATEGORIES:
• Farming
• Habitat
• Severe Weather
• Health
Transition Training 2011. Source: Cliff Kuang, http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662887/infographics-of-the-day-amid-climate-changesome-countries-luck-out
Ecological Footprint and Climate Change
31
Today, the term “carbon footprint” is often used as
shorthand for the amount of carbon (usually in tons)
being emitted by an activity or organization.
The carbon component of the Ecological Footprint takes a slightly differing
approach, translating the amount of carbon dioxide into the amount of productive
land and sea area required to sequester carbon dioxide emissions. This tells us the
demand on the planet that results from burning fossil fuels.
Transition Training 2011. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/carbon_footprint/
Ecological Footprint and Climate Change
Measuring it in this way offers a few key advantages.
• On a practical level, the Ecological Footprint shows us how carbon
emissions compare and interacts with other elements of human demand,
such as our pressure on food sources, the quantity of living resources
required to make the goods we consume, and the amount of land we take
out of production when we pave it over to build cities and roads.
• The carbon Footprint is 54 percent of humanity’s overall Ecological
Footprint and its most rapidly-growing component.
• Humanity’s carbon footprint has increased 11-fold since 1961.
Reducing humanity’s carbon Footprint is the most essential step we can
take to end overshoot and live within the means of our planet.
The Footprint framework enables us to address the problem in a
comprehensive way, one that does not simply shift the burden from one
natural system to another.
Transition Training 2011. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/carbon_footprint/
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