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Grappling with the Impact of Climate Change for Vulnerable Countries M. J. Mace Consultant to Climate Analytics CVF Seminar Tagaytay, Philippines 12 August 2016 Outline of Presentation • • • • • • • • • • Key climate change risks and impacts Paris Agreement goals Impacts at various levels of warming 2013-2015 Review of the long-term global goal Current policies and related projected impacts Increase in risk between 1.5°C and 2C degrees Economic impacts from key risks Limits to adaptation Planning for adaptation, obligations and challenges Questions for Discussion 2 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: key risks The IPCC AR 5 identifies key risks across sectors and regions in relation to different levels of warming. These risks include: • death, injury, ill-health or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and in SIDS, due to storm surges, coastal flooding and sea-level rise; • systemic risks such as breakdown of infrastructure networks due to extreme weather events; • mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat; • food insecurity and breakdown of food systems; • loss of rural livelihoods and income; • loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem goods, functions and services; • loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem goods, functions and services. 3 Understanding the Paris Agreement Goals Convention objective Article 2 – stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. PA Article 2 .1 – in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change … including by a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in manner that does not threaten food production; c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development 4 Significant impacts at current level of warming - approximately 1°C • The IPCC AR5 has found that significant impacts are already occurring at the current level of global warming and that additional magnitudes of warming will only increase the risk of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. • Current significant negative impacts include: • • • • increasing CO2 concentrations increasing global and regional temperatures rising sea levels increase in extreme weather event intensity and frequency, with detrimental impacts on agricultural yields • higher ocean temperature and acidity, resulting in mass bleaching of tropical coral reefs. 5 Warming level risks: “Reasons for Concern”, IPCC (2014), WGII Summary for Policy Makers, Box SPM.1 Figure 1 Strengthening the long term global temperature goal: the 2013-15 Review • 2010 – COP 16 decision 1/CP.16 – • recognized that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science 'with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal • recognized the need to consider 'strengthening the long-term global goal on the basis of the best available scientific knowledge, including in relation to a global average temperature rise of 1.5°C'. • agreed to periodically review the adequacy of the long-term goal, first review by 2015 • The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED), constituted to contribute to the '2013-2015 Review', brought together scientific experts to consider the risks inherent in the then-current temperature increase; rejected 2 degree ‘guardrail’ concept – endorsed strengthening to 1.5 • 2015 – COP 21 adopted new 1.5 degree goal, based on review of impacts (decision 10/CP.21) “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oC above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above preindustrial levels (..)” What happens in the near term? 1.5 DEGREES Where do we stand with respect to adaptation? INDCs, current policies vs. 1.5 and 2 oC pathways Source: www.climateactiontracker.org Risks and impacts projected if ambition does not go beyond current policies - delivering 4°C • Small islands and low-lying coastal cities and regions would be at severe risk of inundation with a projected sea level rise increase of up to 1 meter by 2100 and a multi-meter SLR in the centuries that follow • Risk to food production would increase dramatically on the global scale and in particular in tropical regions, including across sub-Sahara Africa • Substantial glacier loss, with glaciers in the tropical glaciers in the Central Andes projected to disappear in the 21st century and Central Asian glaciers to shrink by up to 80%; substantial risks of glacier lake outburst and flooding, reduced river flow for agricultural production and livelihoods the depend on glaciers for freshwater • Water availability would decline sharply, particularly in sub-tropical regions, such as Central America and the Caribbean, South and North Africa, the Middle East and parts of Central Asia, with a 20% reduction in most places and 50% reduction in some, and an increase in drought risk Impacts at 4 °C, continued • Extreme precipitation intensity projected to increase by 20% under a 4 degree increase; greater extreme monsoon precipitation, for example in South Asian countries • Unprecedented heat waves the new norm in tropical regions, with detrimental impacts on human livelihoods, health and labor productivity, ecosystems. • Increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones projected • Irreversible loss of biodiversity, including reef systems • Trend toward more extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions, which could lead to more extreme drought or flood conditions in tropical regions, and affect regional sea level rise. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant Source: Schleussner et al. (2016) The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant Decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs Substantial risk increase for regional crop yield reductions in particular in tropical regions. Doubling in mean risk between 1.5°C and 2°C Source: Schleussner et al. (2016) The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant Source: Schleussner et al. (2016) • 1.5°C climate is at outer edge of historical experience; 2°C represents new climate state, particularly in tropical regions. • 50% increase in heat-wave length Schleussner et al. (2016) • Near-doubling of water availability reduction in dry subtropical regions Excess of 1.5°C risks crossing tipping points • Limiting warming to 1.5°C degrees reduces risk of crossing tipping points, e.g., • Irreversible melting of the polar ice caps and glaciers • Die back of tropical and high latitude forests • Permafrost collapse, leading to methane releases • Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet melt, leading to multi-meter sea level rise • 1.6°C identified as tipping point for Greenland ice sheet, leading to 7 meters of sea level rise over millenia • 2.0°C of warming would cross 50% of identified tipping points, while at 1.5°C of warming, only 20% of tipping points crossed. See Drijfhout et al. (2015) Very large long term risk for many meters of sea level rise at warming above 1.5 degrees If destabilized, the Antarctic ice sheet could contribute much more to sea-level rise then previously thought. >4°C ~2.5°C ~1.5°C Deconto & Pollard (2016) “Scientists nearly double sea level rise projections for 2100, because of Antarctica” , Washington Post, March 30, 2016 “Scientists nearly double sea level rise projections for 2100, because of Antarctica” , Washington Post, March 30, 2016 Some selected risk increases between 1.5°C and 2°C Source: Schleussner et al. (2016) Impact Regions most impacted 1.5°C 2.0 °C Heat waves All tropical developing countries 2 month 3 month Annual water availability Central America Up to 20% reduction Up to 30% reduction Extreme precipitation South East Asia About 7% intensity increase About 10% intensity increase Risks for wheat yield reductions West Africa East Africa Central America Up to 45% reduction Up to 25%, Up to 25% Up to 60% reduction Up to 35% Up to 45% Risks for rice yield reductions Tropical countries May be gains in local yields, but limited gains between 1.5 and 2 °C and negative climate impacts increase Ocean acidification and coral reef loss Small islands in South Pacific and Caribbean, South East Asia 90% in 2050 [50-99 range] 98% in 2050 [86-100 range] Sea level rise Small islands in South Pacific and Caribbean, South East Asia 40 cm by 2100 [30, 55] mean estimate 50 cm by 2100 [35, 65] mean estimate Economic impacts from climate impacts Source: Schleussner et al. (2016), Parsons (2014), UNDP (2016), Hallegatte et al (2016) Impact Regions most impacted Impacts Heat waves All CVF countries Occupational health risks Lower labor productivity Loss of lives Annual water availability Central America Spread of disease Lower labor productivity Loss of lives Food price inflation; Food insecurity Extreme precipitation South East Asia Physical capital destruction Business disruption Spread of disease Lower labor productivity Risks for wheat yield reductions West Africa, East Africa Central America Food price inflation; Food insecurity Declining farming household incomes Rural – urban migration Risks for rice yields All CVF countries Food price inflation Food insecurity Ocean acidification and coral reef loss Small islands in South Pacific and Caribbean, South East Asia Threat to fisheries livelihood Threat to tourism industry Sea level rise Small islands in South Pacific and Caribbean, South East Asia Reduction in productive and non-productive land area Community displacement Lower labor productivity Loss of lives Impacts, risks, limits to adaptation better understood all the time Adapted from: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers Damage can be reduced by adaptation, but not eliminated: “residual damages” remain at all levels of adaptation e.g., Costs for Africa as % GDP: Over 4°C World (RCP8.5) Costs for Africa (% GDP) Below 2°C World (RCP2.6) 2% 2% Residual damages 1% 0% 2010 1% 2020 2030 2040 2050 0% 2010 Adaptation costs 2020 2030 2040 2050 For assumptions see source: Schaeffer, M., Baarsch, F., Balo, G., de Bruin, K., Calland, R., Fallasch, F., Melkie, M., Verwey, L., Freitas, S., De Marez, L., van Rooij, J., Hare, B. (2015). Africa’s Adaptation Gap 2. Nairobi, Kenya. Implications of risks for adaptation planning? • Current mismatch between level of ambition of INDCs and pursuit of 1.5°C temperature limit under the Paris Agreement • Scale of impacts will depend on success of global mitigation efforts and efforts to mobilize support for adaptation needs • Difficult to anticipate the scale and timeframe of risks and impacts, in the absence of clarity on long term emission pathways • Mid-century long-term low GHG emission development strategies, and clear progress in achieving NDCs and implementing these longer-term strategies will facilitate adaptation planning, but this information is not yet available 24 Implications of risk and impacts for adaptation planning? • Costs of adaptation increase with anticipated impacts • Planning for greater temperature increase would reduce residual damage, regardless of actual temperature increase, but comes at a cost • Developed countries have committed to assist particularly vulnerable countries in meeting the costs of adaptation, but current scale of support for adaptation is insufficient to address needs 25 Challenges • Securing an increase in aggregate mitigation ambition - the UNFCCC process has acknowledged that the INDCs in aggregate fall short of what is necessary to put the world on a 1.5°C pathway and specifies that much greater emission reduction efforts will be necessary • Mobilizing political support among Parties for updated NDCs consistent with a 1.5°C pathway – the Paris Agreement requests new and updated NDCs by 2020, but does not make this a requirement. • Expediting the design and implementation of adaptation plans and measures – important for domestic purposes and for generating the information needed t access international support • Securing support for the required increase in technical capacity and human resources, against competing domestic needs and international 26 Challenges • Identifying adaptation needs and costs – the assessment of needs and costs is a complex exercise, reaching across multiple sectors, and will be dependent upon emission pathways and domestic circumstances • Anticipating emissions pathways and consequent impacts – until more is known about Parties’ progress in implementing INDCs and NDCs, it will be difficult to anticipate the scale and timing of future impacts in different contexts 27 Adaptation obligations - Convention • Convention Article 4.1 requires all Parties to • formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and regional programmes containing adaptation measures to facilitate adequate adaptation (Art 4.1b); • cooperate in preparing for adaptation; • develop integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture and for the protection of areas affected by drought and flood (Art 4.1e); • take climate change into consideration in social, economic, environmental policies (4.1f) • Developed country Parties are required to provide assistance in implementation. 28 Paris Agreement adds few additional substantive obligations • Under Article 7, Parties establish the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2. • each Party should, as appropriate, submit and update periodically an adaptation communication, which may include its priorities, implementation and support needs, plans and actions (Art 7.10), • Parties should strengthen their cooperation on enhancing action on adaptation (Art 7.7), • each Party should provide information related to climate change impacts and adaptation under Article 7, as appropriate (Art 13.8). • Under Article 8, Parties recognize the importance of averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change, including extreme weather events and slow onset events, and the role of sustainable development in reducing the risk of loss and damage. 29 Paris Agreement: science basis • 2015 – Agreement refers explicitly to quantification of emissions gap in tonnes, relates this to temperature goals • 2016-2020 – process to strengthen existing technical examination process on mitigation, taking into account latest scientific knowledge; new technical examination process on adaptation under decision 1/CP.21 • 2018 - IPCC Special Report on impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees and related GHG emission pathways, requested by the COP • 2018 – Facilitative Dialogue - to take stock of collective efforts of Parties in relation to progress towards long-term goal, in time for outputs to inform new and updated NDCs to be communicated by 2020 • 2023 – Global Stocktake – 5-yearly periodic stocktakes, to assess collective progress towards achieving purpose of Agreement and its longterm goals, and to do so in a comprehensive manner, considering mitigation, adaptation and support, in the light of equity and best available science. 30 Proposed Questions for Discussion • For what level of temperature increase should vulnerable countries plan? • Has your country initiated the development of systems to track climate change impacts? • Is your country in the process of seeking support for the implementation of adaptation planning needs and programmes from the GCF or offer funds? • How can the UNFCCC negotiations be used to prioritize the concerns of vulnerable countries, now that the Paris Agreement has been concluded? • How can vulnerable developing countries use projected impacts to press for greater mitigation ambition, inside and outside the UNFCCC process? • How can vulnerable countries best provide input into the scoping and content of the 2018 IPCC Special Report and 2018 Facilitative Dialogue?