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Grappling with the Impact
of Climate Change
for Vulnerable Countries
M. J. Mace
Consultant to Climate Analytics
CVF Seminar
Tagaytay, Philippines
12 August 2016
Outline of Presentation
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Key climate change risks and impacts
Paris Agreement goals
Impacts at various levels of warming
2013-2015 Review of the long-term global goal
Current policies and related projected impacts
Increase in risk between 1.5°C and 2C degrees
Economic impacts from key risks
Limits to adaptation
Planning for adaptation, obligations and challenges
Questions for Discussion
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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: key risks
The IPCC AR 5 identifies key risks across sectors and regions in relation to
different levels of warming.
These risks include:
• death, injury, ill-health or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones
and in SIDS, due to storm surges, coastal flooding and sea-level rise;
• systemic risks such as breakdown of infrastructure networks due to
extreme weather events;
• mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat;
• food insecurity and breakdown of food systems;
• loss of rural livelihoods and income;
• loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem goods,
functions and services;
• loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity and ecosystem
goods, functions and services.
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Understanding the Paris Agreement Goals
Convention objective Article 2 – stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate
system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
PA Article 2 .1 – in enhancing the implementation of the Convention, including its
objective, aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change …
including by
a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature
increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would
significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;
b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and
foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in
manner that does not threaten food production;
c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas
emissions and climate-resilient development
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Significant impacts at current level of
warming - approximately 1°C
• The IPCC AR5 has found that significant impacts are already occurring at
the current level of global warming and that additional magnitudes of
warming will only increase the risk of severe, pervasive and irreversible
impacts.
• Current significant negative impacts include:
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increasing CO2 concentrations
increasing global and regional temperatures
rising sea levels
increase in extreme weather event intensity and frequency, with
detrimental impacts on agricultural yields
• higher ocean temperature and acidity, resulting in mass bleaching of
tropical coral reefs.
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Warming level risks: “Reasons for Concern”, IPCC (2014),
WGII Summary for Policy Makers, Box SPM.1 Figure 1
Strengthening the long term global
temperature goal: the 2013-15 Review
• 2010 – COP 16 decision 1/CP.16 –
• recognized that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to
science 'with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the
increase in global average temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels, and that
Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal
• recognized the need to consider 'strengthening the long-term global goal on the basis
of the best available scientific knowledge, including in relation to a global average
temperature rise of 1.5°C'.
• agreed to periodically review the adequacy of the long-term goal, first review by 2015
• The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED), constituted to contribute to the '2013-2015 Review',
brought together scientific experts to consider the risks inherent in the then-current
temperature increase; rejected 2 degree ‘guardrail’ concept – endorsed strengthening to 1.5
• 2015 – COP 21 adopted new 1.5 degree goal, based on review of impacts (decision 10/CP.21)
“Holding the
increase in the global
average temperature to
well below 2oC above preindustrial levels and
pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to
1.5oC above preindustrial levels (..)”
What happens in
the near term?
1.5 DEGREES
Where do we stand with respect to
adaptation?
INDCs, current policies vs. 1.5 and 2 oC pathways
Source:
www.climateactiontracker.org
Risks and impacts projected if ambition does
not go beyond current policies - delivering 4°C
• Small islands and low-lying coastal cities and regions would be at severe risk of
inundation with a projected sea level rise increase of up to 1 meter by 2100 and a
multi-meter SLR in the centuries that follow
• Risk to food production would increase dramatically on the global scale and in
particular in tropical regions, including across sub-Sahara Africa
• Substantial glacier loss, with glaciers in the tropical glaciers in the Central Andes
projected to disappear in the 21st century and Central Asian glaciers to shrink by
up to 80%; substantial risks of glacier lake outburst and flooding, reduced river
flow for agricultural production and livelihoods the depend on glaciers for
freshwater
• Water availability would decline sharply, particularly in sub-tropical regions, such
as Central America and the Caribbean, South and North Africa, the Middle East
and parts of Central Asia, with a 20% reduction in most places and 50% reduction
in some, and an increase in drought risk
Impacts at 4 °C, continued
• Extreme precipitation intensity projected to increase by 20% under a 4 degree
increase; greater extreme monsoon precipitation, for example in South Asian
countries
• Unprecedented heat waves the new norm in tropical regions, with detrimental
impacts on human livelihoods, health and labor productivity, ecosystems.
• Increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones projected
• Irreversible loss of biodiversity, including reef systems
• Trend toward more extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions, which could
lead to more extreme drought or flood conditions in tropical regions, and affect
regional sea level rise.
The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant
Source: Schleussner et al. (2016)
The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is
significant
Decisive for the future of
tropical coral reefs
Substantial risk increase for
regional crop yield
reductions in particular in
tropical regions. Doubling
in mean risk between 1.5°C
and 2°C
Source: Schleussner et al. (2016)
The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant
Source: Schleussner et al. (2016)
• 1.5°C climate is at outer edge of historical experience; 2°C represents new climate
state, particularly in tropical regions.
• 50% increase in heat-wave length
Schleussner et al. (2016)
• Near-doubling of water availability reduction in dry subtropical regions
Excess of 1.5°C risks crossing tipping points
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C degrees reduces risk of crossing tipping points, e.g.,
• Irreversible melting of the polar ice caps and glaciers
• Die back of tropical and high latitude forests
• Permafrost collapse, leading to methane releases
• Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet melt, leading to multi-meter sea level rise
• 1.6°C identified as tipping point for Greenland ice sheet, leading to 7 meters
of sea level rise over millenia
• 2.0°C of warming would cross 50% of identified tipping points, while at 1.5°C
of warming, only 20% of tipping points crossed. See Drijfhout et al. (2015)
Very large long term risk for many meters of sea
level rise at warming above 1.5 degrees
If destabilized, the Antarctic ice sheet
could contribute much more to sea-level
rise then previously thought.
>4°C
~2.5°C
~1.5°C
Deconto & Pollard (2016)
“Scientists nearly double sea level rise projections for 2100,
because of Antarctica” ,
Washington Post, March 30, 2016
“Scientists nearly double sea level rise projections for 2100,
because of Antarctica” ,
Washington Post, March 30, 2016
Some selected risk increases between 1.5°C and 2°C
Source: Schleussner et al. (2016)
Impact
Regions most
impacted
1.5°C
2.0 °C
Heat waves
All tropical developing
countries
2 month
3 month
Annual water
availability
Central America
Up to 20% reduction
Up to 30% reduction
Extreme
precipitation
South East Asia
About 7% intensity increase
About 10% intensity
increase
Risks for wheat
yield reductions
West Africa
East Africa
Central America
Up to 45% reduction
Up to 25%,
Up to 25%
Up to 60% reduction
Up to 35%
Up to 45%
Risks for rice yield
reductions
Tropical countries
May be gains in local yields,
but limited gains between 1.5
and 2 °C and negative climate
impacts increase
Ocean acidification
and coral reef loss
Small islands in South
Pacific and Caribbean,
South East Asia
90% in 2050
[50-99 range]
98% in 2050
[86-100 range]
Sea level rise
Small islands in South
Pacific and Caribbean,
South East Asia
40 cm by 2100
[30, 55]
mean estimate
50 cm by 2100
[35, 65]
mean estimate
Economic impacts from climate impacts
Source: Schleussner et al. (2016), Parsons (2014), UNDP (2016), Hallegatte et al (2016)
Impact
Regions most impacted Impacts
Heat waves
All CVF countries
Occupational health risks
Lower labor productivity
Loss of lives
Annual water
availability
Central America
Spread of disease
Lower labor productivity
Loss of lives
Food price inflation; Food insecurity
Extreme precipitation
South East Asia
Physical capital destruction
Business disruption
Spread of disease
Lower labor productivity
Risks for wheat yield
reductions
West Africa, East Africa
Central America
Food price inflation; Food insecurity
Declining farming household incomes
Rural – urban migration
Risks for rice yields
All CVF countries
Food price inflation
Food insecurity
Ocean acidification and
coral reef loss
Small islands in South Pacific and
Caribbean, South East Asia
Threat to fisheries livelihood
Threat to tourism industry
Sea level rise
Small islands in South Pacific and
Caribbean, South East Asia
Reduction in productive and non-productive
land area
Community displacement
Lower labor productivity
Loss of lives
Impacts, risks, limits to adaptation better understood all the time
Adapted from: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers
Damage can be reduced by adaptation, but not eliminated:
“residual damages” remain at all levels of adaptation
e.g., Costs for Africa as % GDP:
Over 4°C World (RCP8.5)
Costs for Africa (% GDP)
Below 2°C World (RCP2.6)
2%
2%
Residual
damages
1%
0%
2010
1%
2020
2030
2040
2050
0%
2010
Adaptation
costs
2020
2030
2040
2050
For assumptions see source: Schaeffer, M., Baarsch, F., Balo, G., de Bruin,
K., Calland, R., Fallasch, F., Melkie, M., Verwey, L., Freitas, S., De Marez, L.,
van Rooij, J., Hare, B. (2015). Africa’s Adaptation Gap 2. Nairobi, Kenya.
Implications of risks for adaptation
planning?
• Current mismatch between level of ambition of INDCs and pursuit of 1.5°C
temperature limit under the Paris Agreement
• Scale of impacts will depend on success of global mitigation efforts and
efforts to mobilize support for adaptation needs
• Difficult to anticipate the scale and timeframe of risks and impacts, in the
absence of clarity on long term emission pathways
• Mid-century long-term low GHG emission development strategies, and
clear progress in achieving NDCs and implementing these longer-term
strategies will facilitate adaptation planning, but this information is not yet
available
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Implications of risk and impacts for
adaptation planning?
• Costs of adaptation increase with anticipated impacts
• Planning for greater temperature increase would reduce residual damage,
regardless of actual temperature increase, but comes at a cost
• Developed countries have committed to assist particularly vulnerable
countries in meeting the costs of adaptation, but current scale of support
for adaptation is insufficient to address needs
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Challenges
• Securing an increase in aggregate mitigation ambition - the UNFCCC process has
acknowledged that the INDCs in aggregate fall short of what is necessary to put
the world on a 1.5°C pathway and specifies that much greater emission reduction
efforts will be necessary
• Mobilizing political support among Parties for updated NDCs consistent with a
1.5°C pathway – the Paris Agreement requests new and updated NDCs by 2020,
but does not make this a requirement.
• Expediting the design and implementation of adaptation plans and measures –
important for domestic purposes and for generating the information needed t
access international support
• Securing support for the required increase in technical capacity and human
resources, against competing domestic needs and international
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Challenges
• Identifying adaptation needs and costs – the assessment of needs and costs is a
complex exercise, reaching across multiple sectors, and will be dependent upon
emission pathways and domestic circumstances
• Anticipating emissions pathways and consequent impacts – until more is known
about Parties’ progress in implementing INDCs and NDCs, it will be difficult to
anticipate the scale and timing of future impacts in different contexts
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Adaptation obligations - Convention
• Convention Article 4.1 requires all Parties to
• formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and
regional programmes containing adaptation measures to facilitate
adequate adaptation (Art 4.1b);
• cooperate in preparing for adaptation;
• develop integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources
and agriculture and for the protection of areas affected by drought and
flood (Art 4.1e);
• take climate change into consideration in social, economic,
environmental policies (4.1f)
• Developed country Parties are required to provide assistance in
implementation.
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Paris Agreement adds few additional
substantive obligations
• Under Article 7, Parties establish the global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive
capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with
a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate
adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2.
• each Party should, as appropriate, submit and update periodically an adaptation
communication, which may include its priorities, implementation and support needs, plans
and actions (Art 7.10),
• Parties should strengthen their cooperation on enhancing action on adaptation (Art 7.7),
• each Party should provide information related to climate change impacts and adaptation
under Article 7, as appropriate (Art 13.8).
• Under Article 8, Parties recognize the importance of averting, minimizing and
addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change,
including extreme weather events and slow onset events, and the role of sustainable
development in reducing the risk of loss and damage.
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Paris Agreement: science basis
• 2015 – Agreement refers explicitly to quantification of emissions gap in
tonnes, relates this to temperature goals
• 2016-2020 – process to strengthen existing technical examination process
on mitigation, taking into account latest scientific knowledge; new
technical examination process on adaptation under decision 1/CP.21
• 2018 - IPCC Special Report on impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees
and related GHG emission pathways, requested by the COP
• 2018 – Facilitative Dialogue - to take stock of collective efforts of Parties
in relation to progress towards long-term goal, in time for outputs to
inform new and updated NDCs to be communicated by 2020
• 2023 – Global Stocktake – 5-yearly periodic stocktakes, to assess
collective progress towards achieving purpose of Agreement and its longterm goals, and to do so in a comprehensive manner, considering
mitigation, adaptation and support, in the light of equity and best
available science.
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Proposed Questions for Discussion
• For what level of temperature increase should vulnerable countries plan?
• Has your country initiated the development of systems to track climate change
impacts?
• Is your country in the process of seeking support for the implementation of
adaptation planning needs and programmes from the GCF or offer funds?
• How can the UNFCCC negotiations be used to prioritize the concerns of vulnerable
countries, now that the Paris Agreement has been concluded?
• How can vulnerable developing countries use projected impacts to press for
greater mitigation ambition, inside and outside the UNFCCC process?
• How can vulnerable countries best provide input into the scoping and content of
the 2018 IPCC Special Report and 2018 Facilitative Dialogue?