Download Effects of Climate Change on the World`s Oceans

01/11/2016
Effects of Climate Change on the World’s
Oceans:
Footprints to Adaptation in Fisheries
Food Production and Security
Maria Gasalla (University of São Paulo, Brazil)
with the support of
Manuel Barange (FAO, Rome)
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Effects of Climate Change on the World’s
Oceans
3rd International Symposium
March 23-27, 2015
Santos, Brazil



bring together experts from different disciplines to exchange observations,
results, models and ideas on the impacts of climate change on the world’s
oceans
two previous symposia each attracted over 400 scientists from over 45
countries, making the effort truly global in scale
combine paper Sessions and Workshops to provide a forum for topics on a
global-scale and with regional comparisons
IPCC AR4 - 2007
IPCC AR5 - 2014
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Santos 2015 – the data: Who & Where
1
Argentina
24
Australia
2
Bangladesh
1
Belgium
52
Brazil
1
Cambodia
17
Canada
5
Chile
14
China
5
Denmark
1
Estonia
2
Faroe Islands
16
France
11
Germany
2
Hungary
6
India
2
Italy
5
Japan
1
Korea
4
Mexico
1
Monaco
1
Netherlands
2
New Zealand
6
Norway
2
Philippines
3
Poland
13
Portugal
4
Russia
3
South Africa
1
Spain
4
Sweden
1
Switzerland
1
Thailand
1
Togo
44
USA
2
UAE
22
UK
1
Uruguay
17
GP
573 S5
%
43 %
30
S10
Africa
America
Asia
Europe
Oceania
40
S2
15
S3
15
S4
19
S6
9
S7
49
S8
12
S9
11
S12
12
S12
Total numbers of participants
284
Sessions and Workshops
Theme Sessions
1. Role of advection and mixing in ocean biogeochemistry and marine
ecosystems.
2. Ocean acidification.
3. Changing ocean chemistry: From trace elements and isotopes to
radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern.
4. Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: Methods,
uncertainties and challenges.
5. Coastal blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks.
6. Climate change in the seasonal domain: Impacts on the phenology of
marine ecosystems and their consequences.
7. Evolutionary response of marine organisms to climate change .
8. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and resilience.
9. Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying capacity via food-web
spatial relocations.
10. Forecasting climate change impacts on fish populations and fisheries.
11. Impacts on coastal communities.
12. Linking climate change to marine management objectives.
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Sessions and Workshops
Workshops
1. Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine
ecosystems
1. and 6. Joint Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research and Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Workshop: Biogeochemical-physical
interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere.
3. Effects of climate change on the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps.
4. Upwelling systems under future climate change.
5. Moving towards climate-ready fishery systems.
6. Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries.
Keywords in titles
Workshops
1. Adaptation: 16 (Australia, US, Europe, Bangladesh)
2. Fisheries: 32 (US, Australia, UK, Canada, India, South
Africa)
3. Aquaculture: 0
Gender: 1
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Session 2209 - Transformative pathways to
sustain marine ecosystems and their services
under climate change
Convenors:
• Manuel Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK)
• Luis Valdes (UNESCO – IOC, France)
1.
M. Barange – State of the art in oceans and climate change research: Synthesis of the 3rd
International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans.
2.
W.W.L. Cheung – Improving climate-resilience in fisheries through rebuilding fish stocks in an uncertain
future
3.
S.-I. Ito – Challenges and advances in climate projection methodology and their use in projecting
oceans futures
4.
Y. Ota – Socio-governance considerations and the impact of climate change on oceans and fisheries
5.
P. Lehodey – Forecasting climate change impacts on tuna populations and fisheries
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Warming over the 21st century
1901-2012
End of 21st
century
Based on WGII Figure SPM 4
Speed of impact depends on stressor of interest
Courtesy Stephanie Henson, UK (S8)
Multi-model median of year when climate change trend exceeds the range of natural
variability for a) sea surface temperature, b) pH, c) interior oxygen content and d) PP for
RCP8.5. White areas: ecosystem stress does not emerge for that parameter by 2100. Note
the different colour scales for pH and SST.
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Model resolution matters, more in some regions
Courtesy Andrew Yool, UK (S8)
Courtesy Julien Palmiéri, UK (S1)
The importance of resolution
SST
~7km
~20km
And mesoscale processes
~100km
Chl
Courtesy Paulo Calil (S1)
- nutrient underestimates in low-medium
latitudes / nutrient overestimates in high latits.
- Chl underestimates everywhere.
LoRes models still useful to generate hypotheses
Courtesy Charlie Stock, USA (S4)
% NPP Change (-3.6%)
% MESOZP Change (-7.9%)
•
•
•
GFDL’s ESM2M-COBALT Earth System Model,
2050-2099 vs 1950-2000
MESOZP change amplifies NPP signal. Is this real?
Causes: NPP change, zooplankton growth
efficiency, and the zooplankton (zooplanktonphytoplankton coupling)
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Distribution changes: I. Generic poleward shifts
Courtesy Malin Pinsky, USA (S8)
Courtesy Martin Marzloff, Aus (S8)
NE USA SST
Between 25-85% of
animals monitored are
shifting where they live
Distribution changes: II. Heterogeneity prevails
Courtesy Mike Burrows, UK (S6)
Non-moving
Slow-moving
Sources
Corridors
Divergence
Convergence
Sinks
Internal Sinks
Coastal Sinks
GAIN
LOSS
Courtesy Elvira Poloczanska (S10)
RCP8.5
2040
2065
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Distribution changes: III. Habitats do not move
Courtesy Emily Howells, UAE (S7)
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35
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Arabian Gulf corals
already tolerate projected
end-of-century
temperatures for other
regions
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Abu Dhabi
Summer Max ~36°C
Fujairah
Summer Max ~33°C
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Caribbean
GBR
Arabian/Persian Gulf
Survival
Survival (%,
(%, mean
mean ±±
SE)
SE)
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34°C
27°C
36°C
33°C
27°C
33°C
36°C
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31
26°C
Image: E.Smith
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%
Exposure
Exposure Time
Time (days)
(days)
I. Coral adults
- Survival
Photochemical Yield
Yield (%
(% of
of preprePhotochemical
heating)
heating)
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161%
Exposure Time (days)
II. Coral Adults - Symbiont
Photosynthetic Function
Phenological changes: I. match/ mismatch
Courtesy Rebecca Asch, USA (S6)
Trends in Bloom Initiation Dates
After
Before
During
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Phenological changes: II. Impacts depend on life history
Courtesy Shin-ichi Ito, Japan (S4)
Control-RUN
CO2-RUN
GCM
Growth
Model
NEMUROBGM
Migration
Reproduction Model
Model
Both species migrate NE in response to warming. Pacific sardine size at age remains the
same, because it can utilise more the subarctic region as a feeding ground. Pacific saury has
already exploited the subarctic region for feeding ground and thus size at age may decrease as
a result.
Upwelling systems: the big unknowns
Correlation coefficient
Courtesy William J. Sydeman, USA (W4)
*
0.6
* p < 0.01
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC-prev
NOV-prev
OCT-prev
SEP-prev
AUG-prev
JUL-prev
-0.4
0.6
*
* p < 0.01
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC-prev
NOV-prev
OCT-prev
SEP-prev
AUG-prev
JUL-prev
Winter (before the main upwelling
season) and summer (primary
upwelling period) alongshore winds
influenced higher trophic species
differently. These complex
phenological responses of the marine
ecosystem to climatic forcing indicate
challenges for understanding,
simulating and predicting climate
change impacts.
Correlation coefficient
Month
Month
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Ocean Acidification: I. Confirmations
Courtesy Adam Sokołowski, Poland (S2)
pH
conroller
air
Phytoplanktonic food
(Brightwell Aquatics)
8310 cells cm -3 day -1
CO2
compensatory
High CO2
induces stress → reactions →
pH and temp
sensor
higher energy
demand
Flow restrictor
(60 ml min. -1)
Water pump
for internal circulation
shallow burrowing higher oxygen
consumption
(respiration rate)
ARTIFICIAL
SEAWATER
(S=7.0)
Cooling system
(T=10.5°C)
use of energetic
reserves (lipids)
water outflow
slower shell growth (less
energy allocated to
growth)
higher mortality
Macoma balthica
Ocean Acidification: II. Deviations
Courtesy Denise Breitburg, USA (S2)
Oxygen and pH daily cycles
dissolved oxygen (mg/L)
8.5
pH
8
7.5
7
6.5
•
•
6
4
2
0
8.5
5
10
DO (mg/L)
15
pH
8.0
0
•
12
10
8
7.5
7.0
6.5
Individual stressors can either exacerbate or reduce
effects of other stressors
time of day
Simultaneous exposure to low pH made fish more
sensitive to low oxygen
Almost all mobile species tested behaviorally avoid low dissolved oxygen. Co-occurring
hypoxia may therefore reduce exposure to respiration-driven acidification
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Ocean Acidification: III. Acclimations
Courtesy Coleen Suckling, UK (S8)
Courtesy Philip Munday, Aus (S7)
Acclimation
Key
C-high
+2°C
440 μatm pCO2
-0.3 pH
+2°C
1000 μatm pCO2
C < low pH
Initial stress response
Environment
experienced by
parents
influences
offsprings’
Acclimation takes at responses
least 8 mo
-0.5 pH
+2°C
1500 μatm pCO2
-0.5 pH
+2°C
1500 μatm pCO2
Irreversible
Short-term regulated
response
responses
experienced during
ontogeny.
Influences later life
stages
28.5°C
30.0°C
31.5°C
CC and resource economics: I. winners/losers
Courtesy Vicky Lam, Canada (S10)
Current & projected
household income impact in
the Arctic countries
Current status (2000s)
Current income impact =
USD 1,523 million
212,000 jobs
Total income impact
increase by 38%
Job increase by 20,000
Total income impact
increase by 32%
Job increase by 17,000
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CC and economics: II. dependency determines impacts
Courtesy Manuel Barange, UK (W5)
JOBS
TRADE
FOOD
CC impacts cascades through society
Courtesy Nesar Ahmed, Bangladesh/ Germany (S11)
Climate
change
+
Tropical
cyclones
+
Time of exposure to stress
+
Sea-level
rise &
SST
+
v
Rainfall
Salt
water
intrusion
+
Flood &
Drought
• Reduce food consumption
• Loans from kin
–
Coastal
aquaculture
–
Prawn
yield
–
• Sell non-productive assets
–
Export
earnings
–
Livelihoods
of poor
Househol
d Income
–
• Pledge productive assets
Economic
growth
• Sell productive assets
+
+
Poverty and
vulnerability
+
• Migration?
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CC management is about managing risk
Our World
Possible Futures
•
•
•
•
Opportunity Space
Courtesy Jake
Rice, Canada
(S12)
We can explain the need for change.
We can characterize the types of things that are expected to happen, but we cannot
answer questions about exactly what will change by how much and when.
We should be looking to support policies of transition and adaptive response, not new
configurations for some set of future conditions
Precaution is managing risk, not avoiding it
The importance of communicating climate change
Courtesy Everyone (W1-6, S1-12)
?
“non-threatening images that relate to every-day
emotions and concerns tend to be the most engaging”
(Eddie Allison S11)
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Theme sessions directly relevant to
FishAdapt
Theme Sessions
1. Role of advection and mixing in ocean biogeochemistry and marine
ecosystems.
acidification
2. Ocean acidification.
3. Changing ocean chemistry: From trace elements and isotopes to
radiochemistry and organic chemicals of environmental concern.
prediction models
4. Regional models for predictions of climate change impacts: Methods,
uncertainties and challenges.
carbon sinks
5. Coastal blue carbon and other ocean carbon sinks.
6. Climate change in the seasonal domain: Impacts on the phenology ofphenology
marine ecosystems and their consequences.
7. Evolutionary response of marine organisms to climate change .
8. Climate change impacts on marine biodiversity and resilience.
9. Impact of climate change on ecosystem carrying capacity via forecasting
food-web
spatial relocations.
impacts
10. Forecasting climate change impacts on fish populations and fisheries.
managament objectives
11. Impacts on coastal communities.
12. Linking climate change to marine management objectives.
Theme WS directly relevant to FishAdapt
Workshops
1. Addressing uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts in marine
ecosystems
1. and 6. Joint Brazilian Ocean Acidification Research and Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Workshop: Biogeochemical-physical
interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere.
3. Effects of climate change on the biologically-driven ocean carbon pumps.
prediction models
4. Upwelling systems under future climate change.
5. Moving towards climate-ready fishery systems.
6. Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in marine fisheries.
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Personal selection and comments on:
1) Moving towards climate-ready fishery
systems:
Regional comparisons of climate adaptation in
marine fisheries
2) Impacts on coastal communities
Personal selection and comments on:
WS Regional comparisons of climate
adaptation in marine fisheries
More focus on well-developed countries:
Australia (gov/ind scientist + university), US (gov
agencies + universities), UK (gov. scientists),
Except France/W Pacific (modelling, private sector
scientists)
Which countries are really moving towards
climate-ready fishery systems?
More focused in top-down approaches
(government-science-users)
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Lessons learnt from CC adaptation
to fisheries in developed nations
Australia:
anticipatory
planning,
earlyobservations, seasonal forecasts distribution
(Hobday et al), supply chains modelling (Plaganyi
et al), input/output controls part of adaptation
(Fruscher et al)
Technical support & conservation measures
Hobday et al, AUS
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Adaptation in developed nations (cont’)
US: Fisheries Management, Harvest Control
Rules, Risk Management (Kennedy et al),
Adaptation behaviour (Pinsky et al)
More focus on current fisheries management (
Still to incorporate CC in mgmt councils
US
Griffis et al, US
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Pinsky et al, US
UK
Pinnegar et al, UK
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UK
From: Pinnegar et al, UK
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Tuna in Western Pacific (Lehodey et al,
France and SPC) Modelling/projections
Impact by shifting habitat east and polewards –
towards international waters
RFMO:
- control F
(but still increasing outside the area, where control
is more difficult)
- CC impacts with decadal F scenarios
Barange et al,
UK
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Personal selection and comments on:
- Impacts on coastal communities
(More developing countries-oriented session)
Ahmed et al, Banglades
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GULLS Project/BELMONT
FORUM
Howard et al, multilateral proposal
Solomon Islands
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From: Howard et al
Gaps and much-needed research
(to FishAdapt, personal view)
- Adaptation that goes beyond conservation strategies, adaptation
plans mostly responsive to conservation plans)
- More ground experiences (from the sector: what factors are important
to CC adaptation?
- Understand people’s behaviour, beliefs, and perceptions of CC
- From impacts to adaptation:: vulnerability extremely important, but
how would be the plans to reduce vulnerabilities at the different
scales?
- Resilience components and non-linear relationships
- Aquaculture and fisheries as part of marine sciences! (different
communities of scientists)
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General conclusions
- Oceans are important climate integrators (role in CO2
absorption, atmospheric heat accumulatino, continental waters
recipient).
- The cost is: ocean acidification, ocean warming,
deoxygenation, sea level rise, etc
- Changes pose serious questions on varios human-related
dimensions including food secury
- Changes in the ocean due to climate change are a urge
matter for SDGs.
- However, Fisheries and Aquaculture (F&A) sector should
benefit from (are part of) marine sciences although it remains
secondary in the Climate/Oceanography community
(ICES/PICES/IOC).
- There are still several gaps in adaptation research to F&A.
- And there are opportunities for new technologies and social
I thank ICES/PICES/IOC/IOUSP for the opportunity to overview and comment on F&A adaptation
IPCC AR6
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Thank you for your attention
FishAdapt, NACA, and University of São Paulo’s Research Dean
Office that contributed with travel support
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