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CARBOOCEAN, Solstrand October 8 2009, Erling Moxnes Misperceptions of climate change dynamics Erling Moxnes Professor in System Dynamics University of Bergen Outline Mental models – Non-communicated assumptions 1. Misperceptions of CO2 accumulation – Laboratory experiments – Information 2. Misperceptions of saturation in absorption – Laboratory experiments – Information 3. Misperceptions of delays – Laboratory experiments – Information Mental models • Using 6 matches you should form 4 triangles with equal sides. All triangles should have the same size as the triangle below. Solution • Mental model or “theory-in-use”: 2 dimensions • Not communicated: 3 dimensions • Dynamics represent a non-communicated ”third dimension” 1. Misperceptions of CO2 accumulation Sketch needed CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2050 to reach each of the three desired developments of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere 400 CO2 in atmosphere 300 Desired 1 200 Desired 2 Historical Desired 3 100 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 20 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions 15 10 Historical ? 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Illustrate graphically the relationship between emissions and amount of CO2 in atmospheric ? Typical emission paths in CO2 tasks 400 CO2 in atmosphere 300 Desired 1 200 Desired 2 Historical Desired 3 100 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Pattern matching or • Correlation CO2 concentration Typical graphical illustration 160 140 CO2 concentration versus emissions, data from 1900 to 1998, correlation coeff.=0.98 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0.00 -20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Emissions “The more emissions the higher concentration and vice versa” Test of linear instantaneous relationship Stock=a*Emissions+b 200 150 1 1 100 2 1 2 2 1 2 Historical_stock_of_CO2 1 50 1 2 1 2 1 2 Correlated_CO2_stock 2 0 1,940 1,950 1,960 1,970 Time 1,980 1,990 2,000 Test of nonlinear instantaneous relationship 200 150 1 2 1 100 1 2 1 1 2 Historical_stock_of_CO2 50 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 CO2-stock as non-linear function 1,980 of emissions 1,970 1,990 0 1,940 1,950 Auxiliary_hypothesis 1,960 250 2,000 Time 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Emissions 8 Stock and flow model dS/dt = E - S/T Stock of CO2 Emissions Absorption Residency time 1. Explicit about absorption 2. Explicit about accumulation Test of dynamic model Residency time = 40 years Important insights • The instantaneous model is not consistent with the real system • A simple dynamic model explains history very well • Absorption is the sum over land and ocean – and is difficult to measure (?) • Historical absorption can be estimated with high accuracy A= S/40 years Emission paths from dynamic model 400 CO2 in atmosphere 300 Desired 1 200 Desired 2 Historical Desired 3 100 0 1970 1980 1990 20 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions 15 10 Desired 1 Historical 5 Desired 2 Desired 3 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Policy implications are very different from what most people expect! Experiment: design and results Desired amount Max.emissions Results of experiments • Sterman & Sweeney (2002, 2007) – Little effect of IPCC summary – Little use for information about absorption • Moxnes & Saysel (2009) – – – – No effect of phase diagram No effect of balloon analogy Little use for information about absorption Effect of “cognitive conflict” and analogy Cognitive conflict ppm Gtons/year 350 6.5 CO2 Concentration in atmosphere 6.0 340 CO2 Emissions 5.5 330 5.0 320 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 4.5 1987 Anthropogenic emissions do not matter? Need for explanation Analogy CO2 concentration 360 355 350 345 340 335 330 325 320 1970 1975 Gtons C/year 1980 1985 1990 1995 CO2 emissions 7 6 5 4 3 Absorption 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Not sufficient to reduce growth in emissions Not sufficient to stabilize emissions ? 1995 Conclusion on accumulation • Information needed – emissions versus – absorption! • Conceptual change for effect – Challenge instantaneous model – Analogies to explain dynamic model • Future absorption? 2.Misperceptions of non-linearity in absorption? (or saturation) Stock of CO2 f(S) Emissions Absorption Example case: Reindeer St.Paul Alaska Number of reindeer 2000 1500 Population 1000 500 Killing 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 No “tragedy of the commons” 1950 Historical experiences: Canada The American Society of Mammalogists: “... urges that the Canadian Government not undertake the introduction of reindeer into Ungava. Before any introduction is seriously considered, those persons involved in any planning are urged to make a thorough study beforehand of the problems of integrating lichen ecology, reindeer biology, and native culture serious problems that have not been solved to date on any workable scale on the North American continent.'' Example: Reindeer grazing Lichen Grazing f(L) Growth Grazing per animal Number of reindeer Median subject in experiment Herd and lichen grow th [annual takeouts per year] 2000 History 1500 1000 500 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Lichen density [g/m2] Source: Moxnes 2004 No “tragedy of the commons” The case of Snøhetta district Herd and lichen growth [annual takeouts per year] Snøhetta 1944-1997 15000 Grazing 10000 5000 Growth 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Lichen density [g/m2] Source: Moxnes et al. 2002 Experts warning No “tragedy of the commons” Conclusion non-linearity • Non-linearity (or saturation) – Accelerating growth in CO2 • Forecasts of absorption needed – IPCC 75 years residency time • Conceptual change for effect – Challenge instantaneous model – Analogies to explain dynamic model 3.Misperceptions of delays - and loss of personal welfare even when the “tragedy of the commons” is not present Simple strategy – no delay Goal: full glass Feedback control Simple strategy – with delay Goal: full glass Feedback control Nearly perfect analogy for alcohol Goal: a little drunk Nearly perfect analogy for alcohol Mental model: Few think of the stomach as a funnel for alcohol Goal: a little sober Experimental results - high school students Average BAC, g/L 1.6 Long delay Verbal information 1.2 0.8 Short delay 0.4 Cognitive conflict and analogy Goal 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 15 minute period Source: Moxnes and Jensen (2009) 8 Stock and flow diagram Alcohol in stomach Drinking rate Desired alcohol in blood Alcohol in blood Absorption rate Feedback control Metabolic rate Simple strategy explains results BAC, g/L 1.6 Long delay 1.2 Short delay 0.8 0.4 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 15 minute period Source: Moxnes and Jensen (2009) 8 People dealing with delays • underestimate lengths of delays (sum) • do not adjust policies for delays • do not learn quickly – wrong mental model (external factors) – lack of data – infrequent experiences Delays in climate change Feedback GHG in atmosphere control? Emissions Absorption Emission capacity Heat in atmosphere In-radiation Climate policy Out-radiation Climate Acceptable climate Discarding Investment Change in policy Desired policy Long delays in stopping growth in GHGs Challenges caused by delays • science and expert advice • awareness of delays • conceptual change – from events to behaviour to structure Thank you References • • • • • • Moxnes, Erling, 2004. Misperceptions of basic dynamics, the case of renewable resource management. System Dynamics Review, 20(2), 139162. Moxnes, Erling and Jensen, Lene C., 2009. Drunker than intended; misperceptions and information treatments. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 105, 63-70. Moxnes, Erling and Saysel, Ali Kerem, 2009. Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies. Climatic Change, 93(1-2), 15-37. Sterman, J. D., 2008. Economics - Risk communication on climate: Mental models and mass balance. Science, 322(5901), 532-533. Sterman, J. D. and Booth Sweeney, L., 2002. Cloudy skies: assessing public understanding of global warming. System Dynamics Review, 18(2), 207-240. Sterman, J. D. and Sweeney, L. B., 2007. Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults' mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Climatic Change, 80(3-4), 213-238. More “invisible hands” Green tax + - Emissions Transport efficiency “taxes” - Demand Oil prices + + Costs to + truckers - Other - - Profits to + truckers Price of transportation + Investments in new trucks - Competition + Normal profits - Trucks + Invisible hand takes care of profits (=normal profits) Cost reductions reduce price and structural change Alternative energy technology policy Green tax Price + Competitor costs Production costs - - - Profit margin + Production + R&D + Scale+ Learning Accumulated production + Current profit margin is misleading Must think of technology development as investment Example: Photovoltaics Source SEMI: http://www.semi.org/en/P039751 Price of electricity given by competitor costs Photovoltaic costs drop over time (path dependence) Investment perspective Cash flow Time Time before earning money depends on policies Early customers with special needs Reduce risk by developing many technologies