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Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific Based on……. Outline and key messages • Main features of region’s climate system • We are affecting the climate system - climate is already changing • Future will be warmer • Extreme weather likely to be more extreme Our climate will be changing for foreseeable future Main climate features of the region Pacific atmospheric circulation • Trade winds • Convergence zones • Walker and Hadley circulations Sea surface temperature El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • Major source year-to-year climate variations Typical El Niño and La Niña rainfall anomalies Wetter (green) or drier (orange) Typical El Niño and La Niña rainfall Annual rainfall - Apia Temperature Effects of El Niño and La Niña on SST Warmer (red) or cooler (blue) ENSO shifts SPCZ and tropical cyclones El Niño • Further north El Niño • Further south La Niña • Fewer cyclones and they are further east El Niño • More cyclones and they are further west La Niña La Niña Cyclones Projected changes in climate Redistributing sun’s energy = climate system Global annual mean energy budget W m-2 Trenberth et al 2009 • Without the atmosphere the Earth would be ~30oC cooler • More greenhouse gases trap more energy in climate system Why are climate scientists so sure climate is changing due to human activities? • Theory • Modelling • Evidence: instrumental measurements changes in the physical world changes in the biological world paleoclimate archives The climate system appears to be changing faster than earlier thought likely Steffen 2009 Measured increase in carbon dioxide 18th century = 280ppm air bubbles in ice cores 2011= 391ppm Mauna Loa Observed warming of global temperatures Projecting future climates Emissions Scenario IPCC-AR4 (2007) Low (B1) 450-500 ppm CO2 High (A2) 750-800 ppm CO2 Temperature (oC) 2035 2050 0.5-1.0 ? 2100 Rainfall 2035 2050 2100 1.0-1.5 5-15% 10-20% 10-20% 0.5-1.0 1.0-1.5 2.5-3.0 5-20% 10-20% 10-20% • Predicting future forcing – how much more greenhouse gases? • Range of possible futures but the future will be WARMER Spatial variation in warming Spatial variation in rainfall Extremes The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be Trenberth 2012 Preparing for TC Jasmine Vanuatu Important points to note • Extremes will become more extreme • Unclear how ENSO will change – continued influence Summary •Not just a ‘new climate’ to which we can adapt……. For foreseeable future, climate will be CHANGING