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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (CLIMATE 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2016 March 10, 2016 Class Information and News • Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16 – Record of course • Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site – http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action • A tumbler site to help me remember – http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ – http://openclimate.tumblr.com/tagged/COP-Paris Resources and Recommended Reading • Reading to understand relation of science to policy – Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1) • Foundational References – UNFCCC: Text of Convention – Kyoto Protocol: Text – Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Web Portal Crisis in Middle East and Climate Change • Event at the Ford School – Friday, March 11, 2016 – 1:00-5:30 PM – Annenberg Auditorium, Weill Hall Resources and Recommended Reading • Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization Wedges,” Scientific American, 2006 (link) • Other versions, additional reading – Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link) – Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link) – Blog at climateprogress (link) Wedges on the Web • Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton University Outline: Class 13, Winter 2016 • • • • • Why Policy? Global Mitigation Policy Conference of the Parties Assessment Kyoto Protocol A global perspective on energy and climate To achieve stabilization at a 2°C warming, we would need to install ~900 ± 500 MW [mega-watts] of carbon emissions-free power generating capacity each day over the next 50 years. This is roughly the equivalent of a large carbon emissions-free power plant becoming functional somewhere in the world every day. In many scenarios, this pace accelerates after mid-century. . . even stabilization at a 4°C warming would require installation of 410 MW of carbon emissions-free energy capacity each day. Caldeira et al. 2003 Policy • What do we look to policy to accomplish? – Some common, relevant purposes of policy • Stimulate technology: Provide incentives or disincentives for behavior. (Often through financial or market forces.) • Set regulations: Put bounds on some type of behavior, with penalties if the bounds are exceeded. • Make internal some sort of procedure or behavior or cost that is currently external. – A more abstract point of view • Represents collective values of society: what is acceptable and what is not. • Interface with the law? • Provides the constraints and limits, the checks and balances in which we run our economy. Policy-climate science interface (1) • It is sensible to look at governance and policy to address climate change – It’s a “greater good” problem – It relates to natural resources and waste from the use of natural resources – It matters to economic and national security – There is precedence (Ozone and Acid Rain) • Given the relation to energy and wealth it is natural to expect there will not to be a “one size fits all solution” for climate change. – One size fits all is one of the most common traps that “managers” and “leaders” fall into. • Feeds polarization and rhetoric • Guided to one size by political interests Policy • A natural reaction to greenhouse gas emissions is to look to government, to the development of policy to address the problems that we are faced with. – Originally policy focus was mitigation, reduce emissions, keep dangerous global warming from happening. – Often when people talk policy, they mean mitigation Global Mitigation Policy Managing Climate Complexity WEALTH LOCAL TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL LONG-TERM Managing Climate Complexity WEALTH LOCAL TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM GLOBAL SPATIAL Being Global, Long Term, Wealth connected, degree of difficulty is high Development of International Approach to Climate Change 2009 1988 IPCC established 1992 1995 1997 2001 2007 Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Scientific Non-binding assessment aim Kyoto Protocol Binding emissions target 2015 2013 Copenhagen Accord Keep warming less than 2 C Paris Agreement Keep warming substantially less than 2 C < 1.5C The Official Policy is: • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – Framework Convention on Climate Change Framework Convention on Climate Change (US in part of this.) • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992, non-binding, voluntary, 192 signers) – Reduce CO2 Emissions in 2000 to 1990 levels – Inventories of greenhouse gas emissions – Mitigate Climate Change 1992 Convention Commitments • All Parties agree to: 4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks 4.1.c. Promote technology development and transfer 4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation • Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the century Framework Convention on Climate Change Dangerous climate change? • What is dangerous? Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006 World 4 Degrees Warmer Stern, 2006 Conference of the Parties What is COP? • COP is the Conference of the Parties – Parties are those countries who have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are 192 signatories. • Essential Background UNFCCC Michigan Observer Status • Framework Convention Parties and Observers – Parties are signatories of Framework Convention – Observers are invited to the meeting for participation, transparency, and accountability • United Nations Representatives • Intergovernmental Organizations • Non-governmental Organizations – Virtual Participation Assessment Climate Assessment • Perhaps the most present accomplishment of international climate change policy is assessment – Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of the knowledge – Provides translation of the scientific literature for policy makers Assessment • Mid-1990’s – No reduction in emissions – Evidence of warming and impacts • 2001 – No reduction in emissions – Evidence of warming and impacts • 2007 – No reduction in emissions – Evidence of warming and impacts Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through…a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965 Data and more information A trillion tons of carbon • We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate change Trillion Tons: Carbon Visuals Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol • Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding limits on or reduction of emissions) – Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and ratified • At least 55 countries • That represent 55 % or more of emissions – Open for signatures on March 16, 1998 – Went into effect on February 16, 2005 • After Russia signed and ratified Kyoto Protocol Requirements • Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990 emissions – Reduction (increases) vary across countries – Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers – (Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012) • Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane CH4, Nitrous Oxide N2O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride) • Commitment period 2008-2012 • Set of other activities – – – – Improve “local emission factors” Inventories of emissions and sinks Mitigation and adaptation plans Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations Kyoto Protocol Issues • Amount and distribution for limits and reductions • What greenhouse gases to include • Developing countries in or out of emission requirements • Trading, market-based mechanisms • Role of removing greenhouse gases Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons • Market-based mechanisms – Emissions trading – Joint implementation – Clean development mechanisms Flexibility in Achieving Targets • “What” flexibility – Targets apply to CO2-equivalent emissions of basket of six GHGs – Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as offsets • “When” flexibility – Five-year commitment period – Banking • “Where” flexibility – Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments • Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant? – It has officially expired – It frames much of the language we use – It sets a foundation for market-based approaches to climate change – Some countries strive to adhere to the protocol “Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol • Participation of Developing Countries – Large populations, large projected growth • Participation of the United States – Large portion of greenhouse gas emissions • Other “flaws” – Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t adequately mitigate dangerous climate change – 2008-2012 commitment period – then what? 2015: Paris Agreement • Link to Paris Agreement • White House Fact Sheet on Paris Agreement Set of References • Credibility of Paris Agreement • Outcomes of Paris (C2ES) • Emissions and Paris Goals – Emissions and Goals: Grantham (London School) – IEA: Emissions for COP 21 – UNEP: Emissions Gap Summary of Paris Agreement • From E3G – “E3G are the independent experts on climate diplomacy and energy policy. Our senior leadership has a combined 75 years experience advising Government, business and NGOs and a wealth of insight into what climate change means for societies. – E3G works to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy. We build the broad based coalitions necessary to deliver a safe climate, we bring independence to an extremely polarised discussion, and we hold policy makers to account on their promises. – E3G works closely with like-minded partners in government, politics, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere. E3G: Table 1 E3G: Table 2 E3G: Table 3 E3G: Table 4 Summary: Class 13, Winter 2016 • • • • • Why Policy? Global Mitigation Policy Conference of the Parties Assessment Kyoto Protocol Outline: Class 13, Winter 2016 • • • • • Why Policy? Global Mitigation Policy Conference of the Parties Assessment Kyoto Protocol Appendix • United Nations: How Nations Organize Constituencies in the community • OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development • Annex 1: Developed Countries and Economies in Transition – List of Annex 1 countries • Annex 2: The OECD Countries – Provide financial and technical support to Economies in Transition • Annex B: Annex 1 parties with emission targets • Least Developed Countries Constituencies in the community • “G-77” and China: ~130 developing countries, work by consensus (generally represent The Africa Group) – Economic development and emission limits – Sell their potential carbon credits for profit • The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) – Tightest control on global emissions • Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) – Protection of their economic well being Constituencies in the community • European Union (EU) – Coordinated position as environmental leader with very ambitious emission reduction goals • Japan, U.S., Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, New Zealand (JUSSCANNZ) – Non-EU developed countries – Cost of tackling the climate problem • U.S., Canada, Australia: Low-efficiency energy use • Japan, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand: High-efficiency energy use