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2014 Scientific Assessment Panel Report Scientific Steering Coordinating Co-Chairs: Committee: Ayité-Lô Ajavon Editor: Assessment for Decision-Makers Co-Chairs + Paul Newman Christine Ennis Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014 David Karoly John Pyle A.R. Ravishankara Malcolm Ko Theodore Shepherd Susan Solomon This is the effort of 282 scientists from 36 countries with the help of numerous individuals and organizations. Please see the Assessment for Decision-Makers (ADM) for the list of all who contributed to the success of this assessment report. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 1 Scientific Assessment Panel’s new approach in 2014 Assessment Assessment Foundation from the Scientific Community Chapters (Web-published) Assessment for Decision-Makers Assessment for the DecisionMaking Community Decision-Relevant Information (Web and print publication) Assessment for Decision-Makers 2 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014 3 World Meteorological Organization United Nations Environment Programme WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project – Report No. 56 4 5 “ODSs” Science Update “Global Ozone” Science Update “Polar Ozone” Science Update “Strat O3 Changes & Climate” Science Update Policy-Relevant Highlights from the Chapter 1 2014 Chapter Scientific Summary (bullets) What We Know from Previous Assessments Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014 “Scenarios and Info for Policymakers” Science Update Executive Summary Synthesis of the Policy-Relevant Highlights of the 2014 Ozone Assessment ~50 pages Additional Information of Interest to Decision-Makers (metrics, scenarios) Appendices: • Chapter Summaries • Other Supporting Detail (e.g., tables of ODPs, lifetimes, scenario details) ~30 pages Detailed science assessment done as in the past—but published only on the web (five scientific chapters). Assessment for Decision-Makers (ADM): Synthesized relevant material into a short document for you—the decision-makers. A very short (3-page) executive summary. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 2 Findings of the 2014 Ozone Layer Assessment The Executive Summary summarizes the key findings. The “Assessment for Decision-Makers” (ADM) discusses these findings in more detail. The ADM and Executive Summary are derived from the 5 science chapters of the 2014 Assessment (available in January 2015). A few key issues are highlighted here: 1. Changes in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and the ozone layer 2. The emerging issue of hydrofluorocarbons and connection to climate change 3. A few options for the Parties to consider November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 3 Ozone is now increasing in the upper stratosphere 1979-1997 2000-2013 During the 1979-1997 period, ODSs were increasing, ozone was declining. During the 2000-2013 period, ODSs were declining, and ozone appears to be increasing Observations (black) 35-60˚N November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 4 Models are able to reproduce both the 1979-97 depletion and the 2000-13 increase 1979-1997 2000-2013 Observations (black) 35-60˚N Model trends and uncertainty (grey) November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 5 We cannot attribute the increase solely to ODS decline. GHG increases are also responsible. 1979-1997 2000-2013 Observations (black) 35-60˚N Model trends and uncertainty (grey) November 20, 2014 ADM Fig. 3-2 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 Model with only GHGs Models with only ODSs 6 Montreal Protocol is signed Ozone levels were declining, and the ozone hole had opened up over Antarctica (ppt) Levels of ozonedepleting substances were rapidly rising in the 1979-1987 period Oct. 1985 November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 7 (ppt) Levels of ozonedepleting substances continued to grow till mid-1990s Ozone levels continue to decline. The ozone hole worsened till then Oct. 2000 November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 8 (ppt) Levels of ozonedepleting substances have been declining since the mid-1990s to the present Ozone levels seem to have improved, but we cannot say that this is “statistically significant.” Oct. 2013 November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 9 November 20, 2014 (ppt) Ozone-depleting substances are projected to continue to decline through the 21st centuryassuming continued compliance with the Protocol MOP High Level Presentation 2014 10 (ppt) Ozone-depleting substances are projected to continue to decline through the 21st centuryassuming continued compliance with the Protocol Models simulate current global ozone levels reasonably well, and indicate the ozone layer should recover to 1980 levels around 2030. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 11 (ppt) Model uncertainties and differences suggest that recovery to 1980 levels will occur in the 20252040 period. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 12 (ppt) Models show differing amounts of ozone changes for different greenhouse gas Scenarios- ozone layer recovery is influenced by climate change. ADM Fig. 6-2 November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 13 Background: The Montreal Protocol has also benefitted climate The ozone depleting substances are decreasing due to the MP Climate change influenced (influences) ozone layer Flip-side: Ozone layer change issue has influences on climate change • Most ozone-depleting substances are also potent greenhouse gases. • MP avoided their build up and is reducing their abundance; thus, it helped reduce climate forcing. Warming emissions avoided by Ozone-Layer agreement (Montreal Protocol) Warming emissions reduction targeted by the first phase of the 1997 international Climate agreement (Kyoto Protocol) November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 14 Background: HFCs came about as substitutes of ODSs Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) do not deplete the ozone layer. They are being used to transition out of using ozone-depleting substances. HFCs are the main replacements for ozonedepleting substances in many applications. The use of HFCs has increased and is increasing rapidly. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 15 HFCs are increasing in the atmosphere Abundances (ppt) Emissions (kT/yr) 60 150 40 100 20 50 e.g., HFC-134a used in mobile air conditioners has increased about 7% a year over the past two years. 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 25 1990 16 HFC-23 12 20 2000 2010 HFC-23 The current contribution of HFCs to climate change is still small (<1% of GHGs). 8 15 4 10 1995 2000 2005 November 20, 2014 2010 0 1980 1990 HFC-23, a byproduct of HCFC-22 production, is also increasing. 2000 2010 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 16 Future emissions HFCs could make a large contribution to climate change Various HFC Scenarios Future HFC contribution to climate change (as measured by radiative forcing) can be large. o Radiative forcing by future HFC emissions can be ~25% of that of CO2 future emissions. o Future HFC emissions can significantly hinder the 450 ppm CO2 stabilization target. 17 There are ways to avoid large climate effects of HFCs Possible to retain a <1% contribution in 2050 by using lowGWP HFCs (GWP <20) and other alternatives, even for the upper range emissions Scenarios. Such alternatives appear to be available. Replacement of current mix of high-GWP HFCs with lowGWP compounds and not-in-kind technologies would essentially avoid these climate effects of HFCs. TFA from HFO-1234yf, a potential substitute, is considered to be negligible over the the next few decades. Potential longerterm impacts require future evaluations. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 18 Possible Options to Advance Ozone Layer Return to 1980 levels Options to advance the return of the ozone layer to 1980 levels are not as extensive as in the past- Montreal Protocol has done a lot! The cumulative effects of the elimination of emissions from all banks and production advances the return to 1980 levels by 11 years. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 19 Findings of the 2014 Ozone-Layer Assessment We highlighted a few key issues: 1. Changes in ozone-depleting substances and the ozone layer. 2. Increases in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and their consequences. 3. Some information asked for by the parties in the remit for the SAP worth noting: - Differences in estimated emissions of Carbon tetrachloride (CTC): atmospheric observations vs. reported values. - Details of methyl bromide trends. - Role of banks in the future of the ozone layer and impacts on climate. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 20 Findings of the 2014 Ozone-Layer Assessment For further details, we refer you to: • The Executive Summary - key findings • The ADM- more detail • Soon-to-be released science chapters November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 21 Thank you for your attention November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 22 Backup slides November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 23 HFCs contribution to climate change by future emissions can be large Unabated, future HFC contribution radiative forcing can be large. Radiative forcing by future HFC emissions can be ~25% of that of CO2 future emissions (scenarios from SRES). Future HFC emissions can significantly hinder achieving the 450 ppm stabilization target. November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 24 Thousands of tonnes Montreal Protocol’s substitution strategy November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 25 Climate Benefits of Montreal Protocol Many ODSs are potent greenhouse gases - Ramanathan Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11 GtCO2-eq/yr Role of ozone depletion cooling due to CFCs? Could reduce this by perhaps a third but…. Velders et al., 2007 November 20, 2014 MOP High Level Presentation 2014 26