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2014 Scientific Assessment
Panel Report
Scientific Steering Coordinating
Co-Chairs:
Committee:
Ayité-Lô Ajavon
Editor:
Assessment for Decision-Makers
Co-Chairs +
Paul Newman
Christine Ennis
Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014
David Karoly
John
Pyle
A.R. Ravishankara Malcolm Ko
Theodore Shepherd
Susan Solomon
This is the effort of 282 scientists from 36 countries with
the help of numerous individuals and organizations.
Please see the Assessment for Decision-Makers (ADM)
for the list of all who contributed to the success of this
assessment report.
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MOP High Level Presentation 2014
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Scientific Assessment Panel’s new
approach in 2014 Assessment
Assessment Foundation
from the Scientific Community
Chapters
(Web-published)
Assessment for Decision-Makers
Assessment for the DecisionMaking Community
Decision-Relevant Information
(Web and print publication)
Assessment for Decision-Makers
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Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014
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World Meteorological Organization
United Nations Environment Programme
WMO Global Ozone Research
and Monitoring Project – Report No. 56
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5
“ODSs”
Science Update
“Global Ozone”
Science Update
“Polar Ozone”
Science Update
“Strat O3 Changes
& Climate”
Science Update
Policy-Relevant Highlights from the Chapter
1
2014 Chapter Scientific Summary (bullets)
What We Know from Previous Assessments
Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2014
“Scenarios and Info
for Policymakers”
Science Update
Executive Summary
Synthesis of the
Policy-Relevant
Highlights of the 2014
Ozone Assessment
~50
pages
Additional Information
of Interest to
Decision-Makers
(metrics, scenarios)
Appendices:
• Chapter Summaries
• Other Supporting Detail
(e.g., tables of ODPs, lifetimes,
scenario details)
~30
pages
Detailed science assessment done as in the past—but published only on
the web (five scientific chapters).
Assessment for Decision-Makers (ADM):
 Synthesized relevant material into a short document for you—the
decision-makers.
 A very short (3-page) executive summary.
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Findings of the
2014 Ozone Layer Assessment
The Executive Summary summarizes the key findings.
The “Assessment for Decision-Makers” (ADM) discusses
these findings in more detail.
The ADM and Executive Summary are derived from the 5
science chapters of the 2014 Assessment (available in
January 2015).
A few key issues are highlighted here:
1. Changes in ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and the
ozone layer
2. The emerging issue of hydrofluorocarbons and
connection to climate change
3. A few options for the Parties to consider
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Ozone is now increasing in the
upper stratosphere
1979-1997
2000-2013
During the 1979-1997
period, ODSs were
increasing, ozone was
declining.
During the 2000-2013
period, ODSs were
declining, and ozone
appears to be increasing
Observations (black) 35-60˚N
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Models are able to reproduce both the 1979-97
depletion and the 2000-13 increase
1979-1997
2000-2013
Observations (black) 35-60˚N
Model trends and uncertainty (grey)
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We cannot attribute the increase solely to ODS
decline. GHG increases are also responsible.
1979-1997
2000-2013
Observations (black) 35-60˚N
Model trends and uncertainty (grey)
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ADM Fig. 3-2
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Model with only GHGs
Models with only ODSs
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Montreal Protocol is signed
Ozone levels were
declining, and the
ozone hole had
opened up over
Antarctica
(ppt)
Levels of ozonedepleting substances
were rapidly rising in
the 1979-1987 period
Oct. 1985
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(ppt)
Levels of ozonedepleting substances
continued to grow till
mid-1990s
Ozone levels continue
to decline. The ozone
hole worsened till
then
Oct. 2000
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(ppt)
Levels of ozonedepleting substances
have been declining
since the mid-1990s
to the present
Ozone levels seem to
have improved, but
we cannot say that
this is “statistically
significant.”
Oct. 2013
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November 20, 2014
(ppt)
Ozone-depleting
substances are
projected to continue
to decline through the
21st centuryassuming continued
compliance with the
Protocol
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(ppt)
Ozone-depleting
substances are projected
to continue to decline
through the 21st centuryassuming continued
compliance with the
Protocol
Models simulate current
global ozone levels
reasonably well, and
indicate the ozone layer
should recover to 1980
levels around 2030.
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(ppt)
Model uncertainties
and differences
suggest that recovery
to 1980 levels will
occur in the 20252040 period.
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(ppt)
Models show differing
amounts of ozone
changes for different
greenhouse gas
Scenarios- ozone layer
recovery is influenced
by climate change.
ADM Fig. 6-2
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Background: The Montreal Protocol
has also benefitted climate
 The ozone depleting substances are decreasing due to the MP
 Climate change influenced (influences) ozone layer
 Flip-side: Ozone layer change issue has influences on climate change
• Most ozone-depleting substances are also
potent greenhouse gases.
• MP avoided their build up and is reducing
their abundance; thus, it helped reduce
climate forcing.
Warming emissions avoided by Ozone-Layer agreement
(Montreal Protocol)
Warming emissions reduction targeted by the first phase of the
1997 international Climate agreement (Kyoto Protocol)
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Background: HFCs came
about as substitutes of ODSs
 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) do not deplete the
ozone layer.
They are being used to transition out of using
ozone-depleting substances.
HFCs are the main replacements for ozonedepleting substances in many applications.
The use of HFCs has increased and is increasing
rapidly.
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HFCs are increasing in the
atmosphere
Abundances (ppt)
Emissions (kT/yr)
60
150
40
100
20
50
 e.g., HFC-134a used in
mobile air conditioners
has increased about 7%
a year over the past two
years.
0
1995 2000 2005 2010
25
1990
16
HFC-23
12
20
2000
2010
HFC-23
 The current contribution
of HFCs to climate
change is still small
(<1% of GHGs).
8
15
4
10
1995
2000
2005
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2010
0
1980
1990
 HFC-23, a byproduct of
HCFC-22 production, is
also increasing.
2000
2010
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Future emissions HFCs could make a
large contribution to climate change
Various
HFC
Scenarios
 Future HFC contribution to climate change (as measured by radiative
forcing) can be large.
o Radiative forcing by future HFC emissions can be ~25% of that of
CO2 future emissions.
o Future HFC emissions can significantly hinder the 450 ppm CO2
stabilization target.
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There are ways to avoid large
climate effects of HFCs
 Possible to retain a <1% contribution in 2050 by using lowGWP HFCs (GWP <20) and other alternatives, even for the
upper range emissions Scenarios.
 Such alternatives appear to be available.
 Replacement of current mix of high-GWP HFCs with lowGWP compounds and not-in-kind technologies would
essentially avoid these climate effects of HFCs.
 TFA from HFO-1234yf, a potential substitute, is considered to
be negligible over the the next few decades. Potential longerterm impacts require future evaluations.
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Possible Options to Advance Ozone
Layer Return to 1980 levels
 Options to advance the return of the ozone layer to 1980 levels are not
as extensive as in the past- Montreal Protocol has done a lot!
 The cumulative effects of the elimination of emissions from all banks
and production advances the return to 1980 levels by 11 years.
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Findings of the
2014 Ozone-Layer Assessment
We highlighted a few key issues:
1. Changes in ozone-depleting substances and the ozone
layer.
2. Increases in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and their
consequences.
3. Some information asked for by the parties in the remit for
the SAP worth noting:
- Differences in estimated emissions of Carbon
tetrachloride (CTC): atmospheric observations vs.
reported values.
- Details of methyl bromide trends.
- Role of banks in the future of the ozone layer and impacts
on climate.
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Findings of the
2014 Ozone-Layer Assessment
For further details, we refer you to:
• The Executive Summary - key findings
• The ADM- more detail
• Soon-to-be released science chapters
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Thank you for your attention
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Backup slides
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HFCs contribution to climate change
by future emissions can be large
 Unabated, future HFC contribution radiative forcing can be large.
 Radiative forcing by future HFC emissions can be ~25% of that of
CO2 future emissions (scenarios from SRES).
 Future HFC emissions can significantly hinder achieving the 450
ppm stabilization target.
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Thousands of tonnes
Montreal Protocol’s substitution
strategy
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Climate Benefits of
Montreal Protocol
Many ODSs are potent greenhouse
gases - Ramanathan
Reduction Montreal Protocol of ~11
GtCO2-eq/yr
Role of ozone depletion cooling due to CFCs?
Could reduce this by perhaps a third but….
Velders et al., 2007
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