Download Ecosystems

2008 P15
Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Meeting Date: Sept 24th 2008
Paper: IACCF 2008 P15 – “Essential Facts” – another draft
Three of the four ecosystem sections are now more or less complete, and a skeleton
introduction provided.
Action by IACCF:
Discuss the draft sections in detail and finalise text at or very shortly after the
meeting; in particular to agree the scope of the introductory text.
Consider whether the document should be published in instalments i.e. with
part one covering the 4 ecosystems prepared to date and follow up sections
added to an agreed timetable.
Agree a production date.
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Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Climate Change and Biodiversity: Inescapable Facts
Preamble ........................................................................................................................................ 2
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 2
The science .................................................................................................................................... 2
The legislative & policy framework .................................................................................................. 4
Ecosystems .................................................................................................................................... 7
Marine and Coastal ......................................................................................................................... 7
Agriculture..................................................................................................................................... 11
Temperate Woodlands and Forests .............................................................................................. 15
Fresh Water .................................................................................................................................. 20
Preamble
This compilation aims to provide a reliable, simple source of information about climate change and
biodiversity. Comprehensive links are provided in each section to source material and more
detailed data and information. The compilation will be added to and updated as new material
becomes available.
The compilation is structured around major UK ecosystems with an introductory section outlining
the basic science and the major policy instruments driving present climate change action. Each
ecosystem section contains material under 5 sub-headings:
 General
 Role in the Climate System
 Impacts
 Vulnerability
 Links to Human Livelihoods
Introduction
The science
The science is unequivocal – climate is changing and anthropogenic causes are contributing
significantly to those changes.
Climate is a complex science – many factors interact to determine climate (and day to day
weather).
The observed changes are happening relatively quickly i.e. decade to decade rather than over
millennia.
The underlying trends in observed changes are not all linear – some classic ‘broken stick’ graphs
reflect changes in underlying rates: usually from less to more rapid rates of change.
Several drivers of change have been identified and anthropogenic drivers are major contributors.
‘Greenhouse gas’ production is the primary anthropogenic driver – chief among these is carbon
dioxide.
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Most greenhouse gas production comes from industrial processes, some also comes from
agriculture and from changes in the way land and water are managed (removing trees, draining
mires etc).
There are time lags in the system – the climate we are experiencing now has been influenced by
anthropogenic inputs from roughly the middle of the 20th century; inputs since then will influence
climate for years to come.
Predictions about how climate is likely to change are based on models built using two strands of
evidence: observed changes to date and the causal links between drivers and observed change.
Predictions are constrained (framed? informed?) by the science of probability.
To get detailed background on the science of climate, observed and projected climate change and
the potential mechanisms available to reduce human impact on climate look at the literature
produced by the IPCC and, for the UK, UKCIP and MCIP. Quick links to particular elements are
given here:
Introducing the ideas
Weather
Observed
climate trends in
the UK.
Evidence based
prediction
Probability
Modelling
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/weatherwise/factfiles/basics/climate_whatis.shtml
www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/climate_system.html
www.ukcip.org.uk/images/stories/08_pdfs/Trends.pdf
Evidence of change
temperature
sea level
precipitation
seasons
ocean currents
ocean acidity
Causal links – how human activity has driven observed changes
Is there a causal link?
How certain is the link?
CO2 emissions
methane
other gasses
particulates
Predictions of further change
temperature
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sea level
precipitation
seasons
ocean currents
ocean acidity
The legislative & policy framework
Global
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 to assess and
summarise the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information and research that relates to
human induced climate change, including options for mitigation and adaptation. It aims to provide
decision makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information
about climate change. The IPCC’s first report found that the planet had warmed by 0.5 degrees
Celsius in the past century. It warned that only strong measures to halt rising greenhouse gas
emissions would prevent serious global warming1.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is one of the three
major environmental agreements signed at Rio in 19922 and came into force in 1994. The
Convention set a non-binding goal for Contracting Parties to stabilise their greenhouse emissions
to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
Parties were required to undertake necessary measures, including the submission of national
inventories of greenhouse-gas emissions and removals, adoption of national programmes for
mitigating climate change and developing strategies for adapting to its impacts, and promotion of
technology transfer and the sustainable management, conservation, and enhancement of
greenhouse gas sinks and 'reservoirs' (such as forests and oceans).
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 to strengthen the obligations of the Convention. Under
the Protocol, industrialized countries have a legally binding commitment to reduce their collective
greenhouses gas emissions by at least 5% compared to 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012.
The UK ratified the Climate Change Convention in 1993 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2002, it came
into force in 2005 (when sufficient states had ratified the agreement).
In November 2000, the UK Government published a national strategy for addressing climate
change issues, providing details of how the UK plans to deliver its targets under the Kyoto
Protocol.
1
To date, four Assessment Reports have been completed in 1990, 1995 and 2001 and 2007 respectively.
2
The other two were the Convention on Biological Diversity (CDB) and United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (UNCCD).
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Europe
Climate Change Programme
The European Commission issued it’s first Community strategy to limit carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions and improve energy efficiency in 1991.
In June 2000 the Commission launched the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP). The
goal of the ECCP is to identify and develop all the necessary elements of an EU strategy to
implement the Kyoto Protocol.
On 23 January 2008 the European Commission put forward a package of proposals that aim to
deliver the European Union's commitments to fight climate change and promote renewable energy
up to 2020 and beyond. This is known as the "Climate action and renewable energy package".

The EU is committed to:
o reducing its overall emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and
o increasing the share of renewables in energy use to 20% by 2020.

Central to the strategy is a strengthening and expansion of the Emissions Trading System (EU
ETS), the EU's key tool for cutting emissions cost-effectively.
o
Emissions from the sectors covered by the system will be cut by 21% by 2020
compared with levels in 2005.
o
A single EU-wide cap on ETS emissions will be set, and free allocation of emission
allowances will be progressively replaced by auctioning of allowances by 2020.

Emissions from sectors not included in the EU ETS – such as transport, housing, agriculture
and waste – will be cut by 10% from 2005 levels by 2020.

The national renewable energy targets proposed for each Member State include a minimum
10% share for biofuels in petrol and diesel by 2020. The package also sets out sustainability
criteria that biofuels will have to meet to ensure they deliver real environmental benefits.

The package also seeks to promote the development and safe use of carbon capture and
storage (CCS), a suite of technologies that allows the carbon dioxide emitted by industrial
processes to be captured and stored underground where it cannot contribute to global
warming.
Biodiversity and Climate Change
One of the 10 objectives of the EU Biodiversity Action Plan is to support biodiversity adaptation to
climate change.
On 29 June 2007 the European Commission adopted its first policy document on adapting to the
impacts of climate change. This Green Paper "adaptation to climate change in Europe - options for
EU action", builds upon the work and findings of the European Climate Change Programme. The
resulting white paper is due for publication late 2008.
? Marine policy - http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/marine/docs_en.htm
'The Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity (TEEB)' The EC with support from others has
commissioned a study to evaluate the costs of the loss of biodiversity and the associated decline in
ecosystem services worldwide, and compare them with the costs of effective conservation and
sustainable use.
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An interim report went to the High-Level Segment of the Ninth Conference of the Parties to the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP-9) in Bonn, Germany, in May 2008. The second,
more substantial, phase of the study will run into 2009, and its final results will be presented at
CBD COP-10 in 2010.
UK
In 2006, the Stern report was published in the UK by HM Treasury. It was the first report of its kind
into the economic impact of climate change, and found that the costs of inaction far outweighed the
costs of action.
In 2007, the UK government published the draft Climate Change Bill. It aims to set legally binding
targets for reducing emissions to at least 60 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050.
Key Sources
About the IPCC
www.ipcc.ch/about/index.htm
UK response to UNFCCC
www.direct.gov.uk/en/Environmentandgreenerliving
/Thewiderenvironment/Climatechange/DG_072901
History of EU response to Climate
Change
EU climate change initiatives
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm
Includes links to EU Document:
“20/20/20 by 2020: Europe's
climate change opportunity”
EU mitigation measures within the
energy sector
EC Study: The Economics of
Ecosystems & Biodiversity (TEEB)
Bern Convention
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/climate_acti
on.htm
http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/s15012.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/biodiversity/
economics/index_en.htm
www.coe.int/t/dg4/cultureheritage/conventions/Bern
/GoE_ClimateChange/default_en.asp#TopOfPage
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Ecosystems
This section provides a series of facts about each of the major UK ecosystems. This is set in an
international context but focuses on the evidence and implications at the UK and country level.
Each section is divided into 5 sections: General, Role in the Climate System, Impacts, Vulnerability
and Links to Human Livelihoods.
Marine and Coastal
General
Oceans control Earth’s climate over decades to centuries – understanding how they are changing
is key to choosing appropriate climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
Abrupt climate changes in the past, linked to change in the overturning circulation, known as the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), otherwise known as the Atlantic Heat
Conveyor (AHC) is itself part of a much larger global ocean circulation system. The IPCC models
show a range of 0 – 50% decrease (ave. 25%) in rate by the end of the century.
In the past 200 years, the oceans have absorbed approximately 50% of the CO2 produced by fossil
fuel burning and cement production. This has led to a reduction of the pH of surface sea water of
0.1 units, equivalent to a 30% increase in the concentration of hydrogen ions. If global emissions
of CO2 continue to rise on current trends then the average pH of the oceans could fall by 0.5 units
(equivalent to a three-fold increase in hydrogen ions) by 2100. The pH of the oceans is probably
lower than for 100s of millennia and the rate of change is 100 times greater than at any time over
this period.
Plankton play a crucial role in climate change through the export of CO2 to the deep ocean by
carbon sequestration in what is known as the ‘biological pump’. Without this, CO2 concentrations
in the atmosphere would be much higher than they currently are.
Global sea level rise is largely a result of thermal expansion of the world’s oceans and ice-melt
contributions from land-based glaciers. The most recent figures suggest rates of sea-level rise of
3mm/yr (1993-2003). The changes during the last decade are more rapid than the average rate
over the preceeding 40 years (1.8mm/yr average 1961-2003)(IPCC 2007).
If global atmospheric emissions were to return to pre-industrial levels, global sea level rise would
continue for many decades because of the time lag between warming of the atmosphere and the
oceans.
Land level changes around the UK are complex and relate to the depth of the former ice sheet,
however, few areas are keeping pace with sea-level rise; most coastal areas around the UK are
experiencing a decrease in land level.
Sediment supply is at an historical low, further reducing the natural capacity of soft coastlines to
adapt to rising sea levels.
Role in the climate system
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Model simulations predict that relatively small increases in freshwater input could affect the ocean
conveyor with a shift to colder temperatures. Flooding of fresh water into the North Atlantic
following the collapse of the North American ice sheet could result in dramatic changes in ocean
circulation and this could occur in a short timescale (10s of years) and have major impacts on the
climate of the North Atlantic region.
A slowing Atlantic Heat Conveyor is likely to result in a greater incidence of severe storms with a
tendency to track farther north penetrating deeper into Europe and greater wave heights.
Marine air and sea surface temperatures are rising at a rate of 0.2 – 0.6C per decade with
stronger warming in the south-east than in the north-west.
Surface waters to the north and west of the UK have become relatively more saline and
stratification is occurring earlier in the year.
The exchange of heat and water between the ocean and the atmosphere play an important role in
driving the oceanic and atmospheric circulations.
Rising global sea levels and falling land levels around the coast of the UK are resulting in an
increasing rate of relative sea level rise. It is the increasing rate of relative sea level rise which is
critical in terms of determining the effects of climate change at the coast.
The last time our coastline experienced these rates of accelerated relative sea level rise
(approximately 7mm per year) significant changes to coastal configuration occurred, i.e. whole
coastlines moved and changed orientation.
Increased river flood flows will combine with the effects of relative sea level rise to increase the
frequency and severity of flooding of low-lying coastal land.
Impacts
Dramatic changes in the percent ratio of the cold water copepod Calanus finmarchicus and the
warm water species Calanus helgolandicus have been observed. Although the relative
abundances are changing the overall Calanus biomass is declining (1960s – 1990s there has been
an overall decline in biomass of ~70%) which has important consequences for other marine
wildlife, especially fish larvae and consequently fisheries stocks.
Changes in seasonal timing and phenology are being observed, but not all trophic levels are
responding in the same way thus resulting in mistiming (mismatches) of peak occurrences of
plankton and other trophic levels.
The frequency and extent of Harmful Algal Bloom (HABs) have increased, having a direct effect on
shellfish fisheries in particular.
Spring plankton blooms are occurring earlier in the year largely in response to warming air
temperatures.
With rising sea levels and increased coastal erosion intertidal areas are being squeezed with
consequences for over-wintering wildfowl and waders and their feeding.
Sea-level rise and increased occurrence of severe storms may reduce available suitable breeding
habitat for shoreline-nesting birds.
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Warm water species will continue to show increases in abundance and extensions to their ranges
around northern Scotland and eastwards through the English Channel, conversely some coldwater species continue to decrease in abundance and will ultimately reduce in range.
The extent of some coastal habitats is decreasing around the UK. In England it is estimated that
between 40-100ha of saltmarsh are lost each year. (MCCIP)
Increased coastal flooding is one of the most significant risks associated with climate change in the
UK with implications for coastal landforms, habitats, land-use and development. (MCCIP)
Four of Scotland's five most populous cities are experiencing relative sea level rise (Edinburgh,
Aberdeen, Dundee, and Inverness).
Extreme water levels associated with coastal flooding are rising. Much of the Firth of Forth has
experienced relative sea level rise since the 1970s. This incrementally increases all tidal levels and
exacerbates the potential effects of storms in each successive year.
Change in phenology of seabirds – Katie to add.
Vulnerability
With reducing Arctic ice the biological boundaries between the North Atlantic Ocean and the
Pacific breakdown and increased trans-Arctic migrations become a reality. Such fundamental
changes in the ecosystem will have consequences that are as yet unknown.
Marine ecosystems are likely to become less robust as a result of the changes in ocean chemistry
due to acidification and as such will be more vulnerable to other environmental pressures such as
climate change, water quality, fisheries, pollution, etc.
Changes in weather patterns with drier summers and sudden storms will affect the nutrient inputs
pattern from river run-off thus affecting productivity. If as predicted summer stratification becomes
stronger this could exacerbate nutrient supply further to surface waters.
Ocean acidification will have major impacts on corals (including cold-water corals) and other
marine organisms that build calcium carbonate shells and skeletons, many of which are at the
base of the food webs.
Both coastal erosion and steepening of intertidal beach profiles are expected to increase around
the coast of the UK in the future. (MCCIP Annual Report Card)
Changes to our coastal landforms are likely to be non-linear and complex, i.e. the movement of
sediment around the coast will not be a gradual process and will not affect all landforms in the
same way.
Coastal erosion will lead to greater redistribution of sediments. When combined with the predicted
accelerating rates of change of relative sea level rise, this will lead to greater instability of coastal
landforms than we have seen in the recent past.
The capacity for our coastal landforms to adjust to climate change will be limited by the presence
of infrastructure (including roads, railways and housing), rocky headlines and biogeographical
barriers.
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It is likely that globally rare habitats will be replaced by more common ones e.g. the replacement of
machair by saltmarsh.
Links to human livelihoods
Changes in temperature may lead to shifts in fish populations, invasions of non-native species and
the disappearance of some species. Warm water species have been observed to be increasing in
range and abundance and there is evidence of some cold water species shifting their distributions
northwards.
Changes in productivity and seasonality as a result of climate change will affect the exploitation of
marine living resources. For much of the permanently stratified oceans the increase in surface
warming will result in decreased productivity, but in northern latitudes an increase in productivity is
likely as more areas become ice-free.
Productivity of aquaculture will increase due to increased growth rates and feed conversion
efficiency and there is scope for the introduction of new species. Conversely thermal stress,
greater disease susceptibility and an increased risk of damage to installations from storms will
have negative impacts.
Ocean acidification will cause significant changes to the whole marine biogeochemical system and
the ecosystem services it provides to an extent and in ways as yet unknown.
Island communities living in the low-lying interiors beind sand dune systems (for example in South
Uist) are particularly vulnerable to rising relative sea levels. Climate change will significantly affect
the sustainability of these communities
Much of the UK’s developed coast lies within low-lying estuaries and firths. These areas are likely
to become increasing vulnerable to coastal flooding, questioning the sustainability of further
development.
The density of development on much of the English coastline, in particular, is very high. This
presents significant challenges in terms of options for future adaptive management.
The combined effects of accelerating future relative sea level rise, falling sediment supply,
increasing wave energy and increasingly severe storms is likely to threaten the road and rail
networks around the coast of the UK.
In 2001, a Scottish Executive report3 from Dundee University in 2002 identified 93,000 properties
at risk from coastal flooding and 77,000 from inland flooding.
Current land-use and development means that some sections of the UK’s coastline will
increasingly be out-of-balance with the changing coastal processes (sea level, sediment supply
and wave energy). In future this is likely to result in large-scale reorganisation of coastal systems
including along the North Sea coast, north of the Humber and at Aberdeen and Montrose Bays.
Golf courses – to be added by Alistair
3
University of Dundee (2001) Climate change: flooding occurrences review
(http://www.scotland.gov.uk/cru/kd01/lightgreen/ccfo-00.asp)
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Agriculture
General
At present, 36 - 40% of the Earth’s land surface is managed for cropland and pasture (IPCC WG2,
2007; FAO, 2008)4
Agriculture currently accounts for 24% of world output, employs 22% of the global population, and
occupies 40% of the land area (Stern, 2007).
Agriculture occupies 17.4 million ha or 77% of UK land and 28% of that was used for crops, setaside or bare fallow in 2007 (Defra et al.,2007
https://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/pocketstats/ASIYP.pdf
Half of humanity inhabits the coastal zones around the world, many of these areas are the most
densely populated and fertile. The most vulnerable areas are small low-lying islands, low lying
areas already dependent on sea defences and agriculturally productive areas are large river
deltas, such as Bangladesh and the Nile delta (Houghton, 2004). Twelve percent of Egypt’s arable
land would be lost with a 1m rise in sea level in the Nile delta (Broadas, 1993).
Role in the Climate System
Agricultural soils as a global carbon store
Ocean acidification due to run off from poor soils and ecosystems in poor health
Agriculture is responsible for over 18% of the Global human made GHG emissions, this brakes
down to 9% Carbon dioxide, 35-40% Methane emissions (chiefly due to enteric fermentation and
manure) and 64% of global nitrous oxide emissions (chiefly due to fertilizer use.) ((UN-FAO))
In the UK, the agricultural sector is responsible for over 38% of methane emissions and more than
64% of nitrous oxide emissions. Methane is the second largest contributor to climate change
behind carbon dioxide (CO2) and has 23 times more global warming potential over 100years than
CO2, whilst nitrous oxide has 296 times more global warming potential than CO25. Methane from
agriculture largely arises from enteric fermentation in livestock (86%) and manure management
(14%)6.
Globally land use change is a major source of CO2 emissions, with the conversion of forests and
permanent pasture to arable land for production the main driver. The losses are not only due to
removal of plant biomass and soil carbon disturbance, but also emissions associated with intensive
agricultural production (IPCC, 2001). Figures for the UK GHG inventory are shown below:
Summary of 2005 UK LULUCF emissions and removals
LULUCF CO2 emissions and removals as calculated in the UK inventory for 2005 are summarised
in Table 1 below.
4
In England approximately 74% of the land surface is classed as Utilisable Agricultural Area.
Table 3, Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis. IPCC
6
Assessment of Methane Management and Recovery Options for Livestock Manures and Slurries, Defra, December
2005
5
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Table 1: Emissions and removals in categories from the LULUCF sector, 2005 (from Baggott et al.
2007)
Land Use Category
Land converted to croplands
Land converted to settlements
Lowland peat drainage
Peat extraction
Biomass burning on grasslands
Liming on croplands
Harvested wood products
Liming on grasslands
Biomass burning in settlements
Total
CO2 Emissions (MtCO2)
14.29
6.18
0.53
0.40
0.13
0.11
0.09
0.08
0.08
21.62
Land Use Category
Afforestation & reforestation since
1920
Land converted to grasslands
Total
CO2 Removals (MtCO2)
15.74
7.93
23.67
Overall, the LULUCF sector was a small net sink in 2005 (2.06 MtCO2), acting to effectively reduce
the UK’s total CO2 emissions by 0.4%.
Impacts and Vulnerability
With a 1 to 3 oC increase in Global temperatures: 30% of species will be at risk of extinction;
water availability will decrease and drought increase in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes;
cereal production will tend to increase at high latitudes and decrease at low latitudes; complex and
negative knock on effects for small holders and subsistence farmers particularly in the developing
world. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf
Climate change and growing seasons: UKCIP predictions for the UK for the 2080s (with a baseline
of seasons from 1961-1990) suggest that under low emission estimates, growing season length is
likely to increase by up to 50 days in the south, and 30 days in the north. The High Emissions
scenario suggests the increase may be greater than 90 days in the south and 70 days in the north
by the 2080s. (UK Farming Futures, 2008 based on UKCIP Trend Data Jenkins et al, 2007)
Relative sea level rise and an increase in extreme sea levels could affect UK agriculture (Defra,
2005). About 57% of grade 1 agricultural land lies below the five-metre contour, leaving it subject
to flooding, inundation, erosion and salinisation of fresh water. The Fens, Lincolnshire coast,
Thames estuary and Somerset levels could be particularly affected. Horticultural crops could be
particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, as yield quality is especially sensitive to stressed
conditions. (MAFF, 2000)
Extreme weather events are unpredictable and could have a significant detrimental impact on
agricultural production.
Need to add something on ecosystem services to tie into biodiversity! Hopkins report for Defra
2007
One-third of the worlds 6500 domesticated animal breeds are threatened with extinction. GBO2,
2006
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Add about global food security – sustainable agricultural practises, and positive steps that could be
taken- crop breeding, agri-env, catchment sensitive farming…
Links to Human Livelihoods
Introductory section about pressures on land and related socio-economic threats, ecosystem
services, rural poor, global markets…
Food production will have to increase by 40 per cent by the year 2020 to meet the needs of the
world's growing population. DFID Issues: Biodiversity - a crucial issue for the world's poorest.
'Developed countries overall will experience an increase in agricultural productivity. In contrast,
developing regions as a whole will suffer a loss.' Günther Fischer, IIASA in (NFU, 2005)
Agriculture produces the food people eat and (perhaps even more important) it provides the
primary source of livelihood for 36% of the world’s total workforce. In the heavily populated
countries of Asia and the Pacific, this share ranges from 40 to 50%, and in sub-Saharan Africa,
66% of the working population still make their living from agriculture (ILO, 2007; FAO, 2008).
In developing countries, nearly 70% of people live in rural areas where agriculture is the largest
supporter of livelihoods. (IPCC WG2, 2007)7
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that the livelihoods of
roughly 450 million of the world’s poorest people are entirely dependent on managed ecosystem
services. (IPCC WG2, 2007)
Since 2000, global bioethanol supply, dominated by Brazilian sugar cane and US maize, has
doubled to over 40 billion litres in 2007 and is projected to grow by a further 20% in 2008. Biodiesel
production is significantly lower globally, but has expanded in the last four years to around 10
billion litres in 2007. The Gallagher Review of the indirect efects of biofuels production. Renewable
Fuels Agency. 2008
Estimates of additional land demand for biofuels suggest between 200-500 million hectares of land
globally are needed by 2020, taking account of increased yield. This compares to 13.8 million
hectares (or 1% of the total global cropland) in 2006 (not including South East Asia). Biofuels
Review: Scenario Development. E4Tech/Renewable Fuels agency. 2008
Where American soya has been converted to biodiesel on previously forested land it can take up to
481 years to payback the carbon lost from the change of land use. For conversion from grassland
it can take up to 96 years. Gallagher Review
In May 2008, only 19% of the UK supply of biofuels came from sustainabe sources. RTFO
Reporting, Apil/May 2008. Renewable Fuels Agency
Corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions
over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown
7
Ian Alexander Comment: important point (see attached note). If we impose our labour efficient model of agriculture
upon these societies we can expect to make, roughly, a billion people unemployed. Free market fans say this is a good
thing - it will provide a pool of cheap labour to make more manufactured goods ('stuff') more cheaply for us to buy. We
should ask ourselves about the ecological literacy of such a policy.
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on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. Searchinger, T., Heimlich, R., Houghton, R. A.,
Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J., Tokgoz, S., Hayes, D. & Yu, T-H. (2008). Use of U.S. croplands
for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science
Express 319, 1238-1240.
The need to rapidly develop new crop varieties that are adapted to our changing climate is one
driving factor in agricultural biotechnology (agbiotech) R&D. Techniques such as genetic
modification (GM) and marker assisted breeding are being used to introduce new or enhanced
crop traits such as drought, flood, heat and salinity tolerance and pest and disease resistance.
However, the creation of new plant varieties and the way in which they are cultivated may pose
additional risks to the environment. This may limit the extent to which GM and other novel crops
are deployed, especially in Europe which adopts a precautionary approach to releases of GMOs.
Although GM and other biotech-derived varieties may seem attractive for adapting to climate
change, there is also a danger in relying on a relatively narrow genetic base – especially at a time
when weather conditions are increasingly unpredictable and pests and diseases are changing their
geographical distributions. Conservation of traditional varieties and wild species will be essential to
maintain crop genetic diversity and help in future breeding programmes.
Genetic techniques, including GM, are also being used to develop new varieties of crops, trees and
microbes that can be used to tackle climate change by enhancing bioenergy production. This
means there may be pressure to move towards an increase in use of monoculture forestry
plantations using highly-bred, fast growing trees. These will in turn have impacts on biodiversity
and so careful thought needs to be given to the scale and species mix of bioenergy plantations.
Key Resources :
FAO (2008) Climate Change and Food Security: A Framework Document. Rome 2008.
www.fao.org/clim/docs/climatechange_foodsecurity.pdf
IPCC WG2 (2007) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.
Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (978 0521 88010-7 Hardback; 978
0521 70597-4 Paperback)
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm
Houghton,J.T. (2004) Global Warming: the complete briefing, 3rd edition.
Broadas, J.M. 1993. In Warrick, Climate Change and Sea-level Change
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Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Temperate Woodlands and Forests
General
Worldwide, forests cover approximately 26% of land area, are home to at least 80% of the
remaining terrestrial biodiversity and form a major carbon sink helping to regulate the
global climate.8
Water supply and quality, flood and pollution protection, soil conservation, local climate,
conservation of biodiversity, rural livelihoods and wellbeing all rely on the existence of
functioning and appropriately managed forest ecosystems.9
Nearly all European forests are the result of social and environmental interactions over many
centuries, giving them cultural significance.10
Forests cover 33% (equivalent to185 million ha) of the EEA region land area, with around 25% of
this excluded from wood harvesting, mainly because for biodiversity importance.11
Across the EEA, both total forest area and standing volume are increasing with more forests being
allowed to grow older to benefit biodiversity. 12
UK has a much lower forest cover at 11.8% of its land area and, of this around 3.5% is has
no harvesting because of its environmental value.13
Forest ecosystems are naturally dynamic and subject to disturbances and successions, the
maintenance of which should enable the survival of species adapted to the different succession
stages whilst minimising the potential carbon is released. 14
Increasing the amount of forest deadwood would benefit both carbon and biological
diversity policies, but could conflict with need for fuel wood. 15
Because trees take many decades to mature, forestry must anticipate well into the future
compared with other land management sectors.16
8
World Bank Forests Sourcebook (2008) http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187
510&searchMenuPK=64187282&theSitePK=523679&entityID=000333038_20080710064521&searchMenuPK=64187
282&theSitePK=523679
9
World Bank Forests Sourcebook (2008) http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187
510&searchMenuPK=64187282&theSitePK=523679&entityID=000333038_20080710064521&searchMenuPK=64187
282&theSitePK=523679
10
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
11
European Forests EEA Report No 3 (2008)
http://reports.eea.europa.eu/eea_report_2008_3/en/European%20forests%20%20ecosystem%20conditions%20and%20sustainable%20use
12
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
13
www.forestry.gov.uk/statistics
14
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
15
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
16
Forest Research Note (2008) www.forestry.gov.uk/scotland
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Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Role in the Climate System
Sustainable forest management is essential in both mitigation of and adaptation to climate
change. 17
The UK Forestry Standard provides a legal basis in the UK for sustainable forestry management.18
Forest ecosystems play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles, acting as both
sources and sinks for greenhouse gases.19
Growing trees sequester carbon which remains stored even when the tree stops growing until it
decays, burns or is cut down as part of normal forestry operations.20
Forests represent the largest global terrestrial store of carbon and their soils contain
approximately 39 % of the global soil carbon. 21
Deforestation contributes to greenhouse gas emissions – nearly 20% of all carbon
emissions worldwide. 22
Impacts
Evidence of diverse impacts is already available, as well as interactions with other factors.23
Climate change will add to increased abiotic and biotic disturbances, including drought,
salination, increased spring and autumn frost risk, and insect and pathogen damage. These
changes may affect the biology, phenology, growth and distribution of species and the
species composition of forests. 24
Extreme events cause most damage to forests and, although very difficult to predict, their effects
may be made worse by the other negative impacts of climate change. 25
Tree growth is directly affected by the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere; doubling CO2 would
increase biomass production of young trees by 30-50% (if other factors were unchanged)26.
Over the past 40 years tree productivity across Europe has generally been increasing, perhaps as
a result of increased warmth, increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition and CO2.27
17
Freer-Smith P, Broadmeadow M & Lynch J (2008) Forestry and Climate Change Forest Research
www.forestry.gov.uk
19
Lindner M (2007) How to adapt forest management in response to the challenges of climate change? In: Koskela J,
Buck A & Teissier du Crois E (Eds) Climate change and forest genetic diversity: Implications for sustainable forest
management in Europe. Biodiversity International Rome.
20
http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/pdf.nsf/pdf/carbonseqrep0603.pdf/$FILE/carbonseqrep0603.pdf
21
http://www.grida.no/climate/IPCC_tar/wg1/110.htm
22
World Bank Forests Sourcebook (2008) http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187
510&searchMenuPK=64187282&theSitePK=523679&entityID=000333038_20080710064521&searchMenuPK=64187
282&theSitePK=523679
23
Mitchell RJ et al (2007) England biodiversity strategy – towards adaptation to climate change. Defra
24
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
25
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
26
Oren R, Ellsworth DS, Johnsen KH, et al (2001). Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a
CO2-enriched atmosphere. Nature 411, 469-472
27
Cannell M (2002) In Climate Change: Impacts on UK Forests. Forestry Commission Bulletin.
18
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Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Increased temperatures could advance budburst and delay leaf fall, potentially leading to a longer
growing season28, which may be tempered by summer droughts.29
Current tree species within forests and woodlands may no longer thrive in changed conditions and
new species or ecotypes may be planted.30 Migratory birds associated with particular woodland
habitats may change as a result of climate change elsewhere in the world. Both of these could
have both positive and negative effects on the associated woodland ecosystems.31
Vulnerability
Rainfall pattern changes could lead to drought stress, especially in summer in southern England,
which could then be exacerbated by poorer root growth as a result of increased winter
waterlogging.32
The expected longer growing season will increase susceptibility to early/late frost damage, as well
as increase the need for water to sustain the extra growth and may impact negatively on timber
quality. 33
The predicted warmer wetter winters are likely to increase risks from pests and diseases,
including new ones, could impact on biodiversity, wood quality and carbon storage. This is further
exacerbated by population mobility and land use change.34
Increasing fire risk would cause considerable revenue, biodiversity and landscape character loss,
as well as increasing GHG contributions and the potential for erosion, soil loss and landslides. 35
Undertaking forestry operations in more uncertain weather and on wetter winter soils could
be an increasing problem, affecting soil quality and carbon stores. 36
Links to Human Livelihoods
Forests contribute to the livelihoods of more than 1.6 billion. 37
Trees, woodlands and forests have multiple benefits – commercial, environmental, social and
historic. 38
Wood product exports from UK generated £1.6 billion in 2007. However UK still imports a large
volume of wood and wood products. 39
28
Hopkins JJ, Allison HM, Walmsley CA, Gaywood M & Thurgate G (2007) Conserving biodiversity in a changing
climate: guidance on building capacity to adapt UK Biodiversity Partnership
29
Forestry Commission Information Note 69 www.forestresearch.gov.uk
30
Broadmeadow M & Ray D (2007) Climate Change and British Woodland. Forestry Commission Information Note.
31
Joint Nature Conservation Committee (2007) Second Report by the UK under Article 17 on the Implementation of the
Habitats Directive from January 2001 to December 2006 Technical Note IV
32
Mitchell RJ et al (2007) England biodiversity strategy – towards adaptation to climate change Defra
33
Freer-Smith P, Broadmeadow M & Lynch J (2008) Forestry and Climate Change Forest Research
34
www.forestry.gov.uk/promorum
35
MCPFE (2005) Forestry and our Cultural Heritage http://www.mcpfe.org/publications/pdf
36
Forest Research Note (2008) www.forestry.gov.uk/scotland
37
World Bank Forests Sourcebook (2008) http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187
510&searchMenuPK=64187282&theSitePK=523679&entityID=000333038_20080710064521&searchMenuPK=64187
282&theSitePK=523679
38
www.forestry.gov.uk
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Inter-Agency Climate Change Forum
Mitigation and adaptation measures in other sectors can have synergistic or antagonistic
impacts on forests and their ecosystems. 40
Woodlands, as part of integrated catchment-scale land use, play a role in sustainable flood
management, pollution control and reducing erosion.41
Connectivity of landscape habitats, including forests and woodlands, will provide an
opportunity for some species migration.42
Significant opportunities exist for habitat networks, community & urban woodlands and larger-scale
productive woodlands using Indicative Forestry Strategies to assist the identification of appropriate
areas that take account of the very long-term nature of trees and woodlands.43
Urban trees and woodlands play an important role in providing shade, removing pollutants
and reducing the ‘urban heat island effect’ – all of which may increase in temperate areas.44
Non-timber forestry products (eg fungi, floristry materials, access to outdoor exercise, education,
heritage) have both economic and social value. 45
Timber products can be sustainable and contribute to carbon mitigation eg timber-frame buildings.
46
Wood as a fuel is sustainable whilst forests are maintained as part of a growing cycle.
Biomass can contribute to more sustainable energy production, but the 3 principles of sustainable
development need to be properly considered.47
Forestry offsetting may have value, when a number of key principles48 are used – additionality
(the carbon reduction should only be used where the offset finance enables new savings to be
made); double counting (a saving can only be counted once during the whole lifetime of each tree);
account keeping 49(transparent and independently verifiable of issuance and carbon saving
cancellation); carbon stock leakage (harvesting impacts - local and overall, poor growth, premature
tree death, fire). 50
There is much ongoing research in sustainable forestry, forest biodiversity, GHG fluxes51,
landscape, wood energy, non-wood forest products52, cultural importance as well as social
and economic53 issues such as tourism54.55
39
www.forestry.gov.uk/statistics
Joint Nature Conservation Committee (2007) Second Report by the UK under Article 17 on the Implementation of the
Habitats Directive from January 2001 to December 2006 Technical Note IV
41
www.svo.se/episerver4/templates/s
42
www.woodlandtrust.org.uk
43
FC Operational Guidance Booklet (2003 revised 2008) Planning for the Unexpected Forestry Commission
44
Report of the National Group on Transboundary Air Pollution (2001). Defra, London.
45
Collier P, Short I & Dorgan J (2004) Markets for non-wood forest products COFORD
46
http://www.confor.org.uk/Upload/Documents/22_Climatechangebooklet.pdf
47
Wood Fuel Task Force (2008) www.forestry.gov.uk
48
IPPC Good Practice Guidance www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm
49
http://www.s-r-i.org.uk/tools/default.html
50
www.ceh.ac.uk
51
Black K & Farrell E (2006) Carbon Sequestration and Irish Forest Ecosystems COFORD
52
Collier P, Short I & Dorgan J (2004) Markets for non-wood forest products COFORD
53
Ní Dhubháin Á, Fléchard M-C, Moloney R, O’Connor D & Crowley T (2006) The socio-economic contribution of
forestry in Ireland COFORD
54
Martin S (2007) Leisure Landscapes FR http://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/pdf/fcrp011.pdf/$FILE/fcrp011.pdf
40
55
http://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/pdf/FR_Development_Strategy_Sept_2006.pdf/$FILE/FR_Development_Strategy_S
ept_2006.pdf
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Fresh Water
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