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Earth’s Climate: Old Problems, New Thoughts Elizabeth K. Thomas, Brown University Sujit Datta, Harvard University Atreyee Bhattacharya, Harvard University Roadmap for the evening 1. Background & long-term perspective 2. Potential solution 3. Other factors The bottom Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080line… 2099 Higher Emissions Scenario, 20802099 Recent Past, 19611979 Number of days over Number of Days 100°F <10 20 30 45 60 75 90 105 >120 climatecommunication.org Global Climate Change A geologist’s perspective • Earth’s energy budget •Heat-trapping Greenhouse gases influence Earth’s energy budget • Paleoclimate • Climate change today Global Climate Change A geologist’s perspective • Earth’s energy budget • Heat-trapping gases influence Earth’s energy budget • Paleoclimate • Climate change today INCOMING ENERGY data from nasa.gov INCOMING ENERGY OUTGOING ENERGY HEATTRAPPING GASES data from nasa.gov CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE: 0.04% 50% OF TRAPPED HEAT METHANE (CH4) CONCENTRATION IN ATMOSPHERE: 0.00018% 20% OF TRAPPED HEAT wikipedia.org Questions about Earth’s energy budget? Global Climate Change A geologist’s perspective • Earth’s energy budget • Heat-trapping gases influence Earth’s energy budget • Paleoclimate • Climate change today Paleoclimatologists Study Past Climate ICE CORES: MEASUREMENTS OF FOSSIL AIR ppmv CO2 280 260 240 220 200 ppbv CH4 700 600 500 400 400 350 Age research.gov; Petit et al. 1999 300 250 200 150 100 (thousands of years before present) 50 0 ICE CORES: MEASUREMENTS OF FOSSIL AIR ppmv CO2 260 240 7.2 220 WHICH CAME FIRST, INCREASES OF HEATTRAPPING GASES OR WARMING? 200 ppbv CH4 700 3.6 0 -3.6 -7.2 -10.8 -14.4 600 500 400 400 350 Age research.gov; Petit et al. 1999 300 250 200 150 100 (thousands of years before present) 50 0 Temperature relative to today (°F) 280 0 HEAT-TRAPPING GASES! -7.2 Global temperature (°F) -5.4 -3.6 -1.8 Global Temp. Age (thousands of years before present) Shakun et al. 2012, reprinted with permission from Nature Publishing Group Antarctic temperature (relative change) Antarctic Temp. Questions about past climate? Global Climate Change A geologist’s perspective • Earth’s energy budget • Heat-trapping gases influence Earth’s energy budget • Paleoclimate • Climate change today 1.5x TODAY: 2.5x HEAT-TRAPPING GASES A GEOLOGIST’S PERSPECTIVE ppmv CO2 260 240 4 7.2 220 3.6 2 200 0 Where do these heat-trapping gases come from? Temperature relative to today (°F) Inferred temperature (°C) 280 -3.6 -2 -7.2 -4 -10.8 -6 -14.4 -8 ppbv CH4 700 600 500 400 400 Petit et al. 1999 350 300 250 200 150 100 Age (thousands of years before present) 50 0 Brayton Point coal-fired power plant, Fall River, MA Jack Foley, epa.gov, wikipedia.org 1.5x TODAY: 2.5x HEAT-TRAPPING GASES A GEOLOGIST’S PERSPECTIVE ppmv CO2 260 240 220 200 When was the last time that heat-trapping gas concentrations were so high? 4 7.2 3.6 2 0 Temperature relative to today (°F) Inferred temperature (°C) 280 -3.6 -2 -7.2 -4 -10.8 -6 -14.4 -8 ppbv CH4 700 600 500 400 400 Petit et al. 1999 350 300 250 200 150 100 Age (thousands of years before present) 50 0 Ellesmere Island today… wikipedia.org Ellesmere Island during the Eocene (50 million years ago)… reprinted with permission from the American Museum of Natural History HOW DOES THIS IMPACT CLIMATE HERE? Spring 2010 floods in Rhode Island October 2011 snowstorm Massachusetts climate ‘migration’ wikipedia.org; northeastclimateimpacts.org SO WHAT CAN WE DO? Temperature relative to today (°F) Multi-model projections of surface warming 10.8 9.0 7.2 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.0 -1.8 IPCC, 2007; climatecommunication.org We have a choice!! [email protected] References cited Christensen JH, et al. (2007) Regional Climate Projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Solomon S, et al., Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK. IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S. et al., Eds. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Petit JR, et al. (1999) Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-236. Shakun JD, et al. (2012) Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature 484: 49-55. Most data are publicly available at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo