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Montenegro: CLIMATE-ADAPT national adaptation country page Instructions for compilation This country report compiled by ETC is divided into 6 sections, according to the format of the country pages on the Climate-ADAPT platform (see for example http://climateadapt.eea.europa.eu/en/countries/united-kingdom); the additional section 7 (Gaps in knowledge) will not be shown on the online platform, however, it is useful to assess further needs to be addressed by each country. The total length of the first 6 sections should preferably be maximum 1400-1500 words. The document is currently too long and will need to be shortened in the final version. Furthermore some details and specifics can be put in annexes. This draft document is meant to be a starting point with National expert(s) from each country providing comments, checking and integrating information where needed. The goal is to identify where the relevant information can be found, but also very brief summaries of the available information should be put in this document. Please refer to the example from the UK. 1. Policy and legal framework adopted national strategy (in case of federal countries the federal level) adopted sub-national strategies (in case of federal countries the ‘countries’ within the federal framework) national climate strategy if it includes adaptation Montenegro experiences significant climatic risks, which will only increase with continued global warming. In order to effectively pre-empt and cope with the effects of climate extremes, the government integrated climate change in its National Strategy on Sustainable Development (including a commitment to gradually lower the emission of substance affecting the ozone layer), urban plans (climate change mitigation and adaptation mechanisms, energy efficiency) and issues National Communications on Climate Change. The Government ratified the Kyoto Protocol, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Vienna Convention on Protection of Ozone Layer. Within the scope of the United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) for the period 2010–2015, the issue of climate change adaptation is addressed and mitigation measures will be implemented. UNDP will support various ministries to undergo reforms, develop legislation and incentives for the private-sector and individuals in order to build more climate resilient communities, economies and ecosystems. A Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro National Strategy and Action Plan has been undertaken (October 2012). The assessment describes a set of activities that prioritise technologies (in terms of new equipment, techniques, practical knowledge and skills, approaches, etc.) or climate change mitigation and adaptation and propose measures needed to accelerate innovation, transfer, deployment and diffusion of these technologies and measures. The project aimed to strengthen the capacity of the Government of Montenegro and other relevant stakeholders to define low emission development strategies adapted to climate change by prioritizing technologies maximise the benefits in terms of short, medium and long term economic, social and environmental improvements, Contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the context of national, EU and UNFCCC policies; and contribution to increased resilience to climate change in priority sectors. The IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment Montenegro (2011) report focuses on the ability of the government and communities of the country to manage and reduce natural hazard-related risks, it identifies and elaborates general needs with respect to strengthening disaster risk reduction in Montenegro. It covers capacity development and education, the integration of DRR into development, the state of preparedness and response mechanisms, and an overarching SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis. This detailed assessment of the DRR policies and practices as well as the NMHS capacities, gaps and led to the development of policy recommendations. To create this report, UNDP and WMO mobilized consultants to work jointly with national consultants. These teams consulted with a wide range of DRR stakeholders. Related to the country needs assessment there is some legislation related to DRR that addresses issues such as risk assessment, vulnerability assessment and early warning systems for hazards that include current climate hazards. The National Strategy for Emergency Situations (December 2006) can be considered as a foundation for the modern structure of Civil Protection in Montenegro. It gives authority to the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Public Administration through its Sector for Emergency Management for the continuous development of the National Platform for DRR. The National Strategy analyses all the risks affecting the territory, the actual capacity of the Montenegrin structures to cope with them and emphasizes the importance of constant monitoring of the hazards and the need for an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction. There are a number of laws that constitute the specific legal frameworks: The Law on protection and rescue (Official Gazette of Republic of Montenegro no 13/2007); The Law on water (Off.gazz. RM, no. 27/07); The Law on hydrometeorological services (Off.gazz. RM, no. 26/10); The Law on Hydrographic services (Off.gazz. RM, no. 26/10). The Law on protection and rescue prescribes a set of measures and activities to prevent danger of natural disasters, technological accidents and other disasters. In order to effectively protect the population and the material heritage against possible disasters and preventing the spreading of risk, the law prescribes to conduct activities related to collection and processing of data on potential risks, establish information and early warning systems. The law mandates that these preventive activities include assessment of vulnerabilities (defined as “a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data on the possible hazards of the occurrence of natural disasters” “with predictions of their possible future course and consequences, the proposal of the level of protection against risk and proposal of preventive and other measures for protection and rescue”) as well as development of plans for protection and rescue, spatial development and building buildings, establishment of a protection and rescue system and provision of material resources, personnel and other resources necessary to carry out the planned activities. The Law enables the overall adequate functioning and gives to municipalities competencies to act in cases of disasters. Implementation of TNA strategy and action plan A final step in the formulation of the TNA strategy for Montenegro was to identify measures for accelerating the development, deployment and difusion of the prioritised technological options. These measures form an action plan for implementation of the TNA strategy and include priority actions, responsibilities for their implementation, time frames, costs, and monitoring and evaluation proposals on the sub-sectorlevel. Costs for the implementation of action plan measures were estimated taking into account administrative (policy making and implementation) and capacity building costs, as well as costs for networking, improvements in the availability of information, training and awareness raising activities, and similar; financial implications of infrastructure and fiscal measures were not included Analysis and assessment of vulnerability of agricultural producers for extreme weather conditions and climate change in general Preparation of study on coastal area wetlands (significance for reduction of vulnerability to climate change in coastal area, links with Natura 2000,degree to which they are endangered and necessary protection measures) Research on vulnerability of different types of forests to climate change Adoption of national climate policy and systematic integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies are very important for the implementation of TNA strategy and action plan. The TNA represents a significant contribution to both formulation of climate policy and integration into sectoral policies because it offers concrete analyses and parameters which can be used by decision makers to evaluate different alternatives and opt for appropriate solutions. The EU integration process will represent an important impetus for the implementation of the TNA strategy and action plan since TNA results are based on the same premises as the European climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. A very important role for the TNA implementation is also played by transfer of internationally available knowledge through networking and cooperation on all levels, including local levels (cooperation of municipalities with corresponding partners in other countries) and the level of scientific and research centres. It is also necessary to mobilise local knowledge as an important resource and to apply it in a way that serves the function of acceleration of technology deployment. Montenegro has developed national plans containing specific plans on adaptation. The main anticipated initiatives by sector are provided. (The Republic of Montenegro: Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment). Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report. http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Change/CCSEEFinal.pdf .See Annex 1. process or plan towards a national strategy adaptation elements from the UNFCCC National Communication The Initial NC includes Observed climate change 1949-2005, projections to 2100 using the EBU-POM ocean-atmosphere regional model. Impacts on sectors are considered including water resources, coastal area, agriculture, public health, and finally constraints, gaps and needs. Montenegro is currently working on the Second National Communication. 2. Impact, vulnerability and adaptation information and assessments Observed Climate Change Temperature and precipitation have been measured from 1949 – 2005. There is a clear trend of increasing temperature in the second half of the XX century in most parts of the territory of Montenegro and summers have become very hot, especially in the last 18 years. In contrast there is no clear trend in annual precipitation except in the north-eastern parts of Montenegro (Bijelo Polje) where rainfall has increased slightly since 1949 and the coast where rainfall has slightly reduced. Four major floods have occurred since 2006 and the summer heatwave of 2007 saw the highest European temperature of 43.3⁰C in Podgorica. Projections Projections of temperature and precipitation to 2100 have been modelled using the EBUPOM ocean-atmosphere regional model for the A1B and A2 scenarios). Temperature changes for the period 2071-2100 range from +1.6 to +4.8oC with the highest value being for the northern part of Montenegro during summer (JJA). Precipitation projections show a rage from +5% to -50% with the largest decrease in the southern part of Montenegro during winter (DJF). Sea level in the Adriatic Sea could rise by up to 35cm. Impact, vulnerability information Montenegro is prone to several natural hazards like floods, drought, heavy rainfall or snowfall, wind storms, heat waves, landslides, avalanches, forest fires, airborne sand from deserts and some epidemics which are directly or indirectly related to hydrology, meteorology and weather conditions. A number of hazards pose risks across borders in the region, especially floods, forest fires and dispersion of airborne pollutants. At national level, the institutional framework of drought/floods risk assessment is currently in the process of being defined. The process of drought/floods risk assessment at national level in Montenegro is organized across different fields of activity and different administrative levels and could be strengthened by improving coordination among these entities. The Regional Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Synthesis report, Initial National Communication and the TNA (to some extent) cover impacts and vulnerability. The implications of climate change for development are significant with particularly forest fires, landslides after heavy rainfall and snowfalls in mountainous areas causing damage (losses) and disruption to infrastructure and settlements and knock on effects on income and the economy. Water Rivers drying in the summer and torrential flow during winter contribute to landslides and erosion. The largest areas of water consumption are hydro electricity and households. The areas most vulnerable to flooding are Skadar-lake basin (its tributaries including Bojana river) and the upper flow of Lim (and also Tara) and confluent streams with torrential character. Energy There are likely to be changes in demand with more summer cooling and less winter heating. In addition changes in quantities and patterns of precipitation will in the long run lead to reduced flows and water resource abundance, which may, reduce energy generation potential for hydropower sources by 25%. Damages from climate change that will be incurred to the hydropower plant at Piva were estimated at close to € 7 million per year by 2030. Tourism Available estimations of climate change damages for the Montenegrin economy show that a substantial decrease in revenues (in the range of € 33to 68 million per year) from tourism could be expected in the far future. Agriculture Agriculture is an important economic sector for Montenegro with agricultural land accounting for 38% of the area of which 88% is pasture and grassland and it accounts for 10% of GDP (inclusive of forestry) http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/enlargement/countries/montenegro/profile_en.pdf . Small farms (less than 5 ha) dominate the structure of the agricultural sector. Vulnerability to drought is primarily in the southern part of the country, also because of the karstic terrain. Impacts may include substantial reductions in yields due to higher temperatures and lower precipitation, pest infestations are likely to increase reduced availability of agricultural land and decrease in the content of organic matter in soils. Decreases in livestock production are also possible as a result of the occurrence of new animal diseases due to heat stress. Biodiversity Loss of species (especially in water environments) and reduced productivity of ecosystems are some of the main expected impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Coastal areas Expected negative impacts include loss of space and biodiversity and beach erosion due to higher sea level and temperature of the sea. Human health A changing climate has direct and indirect, mainly negative effects on health as it causes changes and processes in human bodies that can lead to injuries and occurrences of infectious and non-infectious diseases, with possible lethal outcomes. Finally, climate change leads to growth, fast development, reproduction and geographical expansion of vectors (mosquitoes, ticks, etc.). Forestry Montenegro has no reliable assessment of the current state of its forests nor a monitoring or control system. Negative impacts of climate change on forests include movement of vegetation zones, reduced growth, reduced number of species, drying out of forests and more frequent forest fires. In the forestry sector UNDP Montenegro is supporting the Government of Montenegro in assessing the vulnerability of seven tree species to pests and plant diseases. It will consider how changes in temperature and precipitation over the last 30 years has impacted forest ecosystems and what is the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to pests and diseases to future climate change. Detailed information about fires, frequency of occurrence, affected areas and destroyed timber volume and related economic damages, as well as analysis of value of wood of economically important/interesting tree species such as beech, Norway spruce and Sessile oak will be covered. Industry Mining operations have led to abandoned tailings that with the possibility of increases in more frequent and intense storms there is the possibility of increased flooding. This would increase the likelihood of contamination of the water courses from the mine tailings. Not only is there a threat to river catchments within a country but where the river crosses borders there is potential for transboundary conflict. Work has been undertaken by UNDP to stabilize mine tailings at the Brskovo lead and zinc mine at Jaloviste Mojkovac in Montenegro. The dam and impoundment facility are designed to prevent contamination of the groundwater and the Tara river. In addition to the construction the project built capacity of effective environmental management for national and local stakeholders. Current vulnerability assessments related to social issues are based on development indicators such as changing demographics in Montenegro i.e. an ageing population, high emigration and low birth rates. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/5C35DBFB9ECA0B72C1257505005C54 41-Full_Report.pdf Economic assessments of adaptation There is no information about the economics of adaptation. Information on monitoring of progress or possibly an appraisal of effectiveness/efficiency of adaptation There is no information about monitoring, reporting and evaluating adaptation measures. Climate Services The HydroMeteorological Institute (HMI) of Montenegro is under the Ministry of Tourism and Sustainable Development (previously under the Ministry for Environment and Spatial Planning). HMI have mandate for the following activities: monitoring weather and waters collecting and analyzing hydro-meteorological data and data on water and air quality preparing forecasts informing and alerting responsible agencies. HMI does not have resources to operate a 24/7 analyzing and forecasting system. Due to lack of national calibration system of hydrometeorological sensors and data acquisition systems, the quality of HMI measurements and data produced is questionable. Currently there are no weather radars, lightning observations or upper air observations available. HMI does not have access to radar data from neighbouring countries. The HMI is responsible for tasks relating to: observation and measurement of meteorological, hydrological, hydrographical, environmental and agrometeorological parameters; analysing, processing and archiving of measured and observed parameters, making studies, surveys, analysis and information on climate, soil condition, air, surface and underground waters and coastal sea; forecasting and presentation of data in the field of meteorology, hydrology, hydrography, environment and agrometeorology, establishment of information systems with the bank of climate, hydrological, hydrographic, environmental and agrometeorological research, the establishment and maintenance of meteorological, hydrological and agrometeorological stations for monitoring weather, water, and air, construction and cadastre sources, springs and water facilities, testing sediment in rivers, control and evaluation of the quality of surface and ground water, rainfall, air and soil on the basis of analysis of physical, chemical, biochemical and radiological parameters; providing data, information and study for the maritime, air and road transport, electricity, water, agriculture, construction, tourism, military, security of property and persons and other interested parties; aero-radiosounding measurements and higher layers of the atmosphere, phenological observations; indirect provision of air navigation; implementation and Regarding the Meteorological Services for the Aviation sector, the Serbian-Montenegro Air Transport Service Agency (SMATSA) provides air traffic services in the airspace of the Republic of Serbia, Montenegro, a part of international waters of the Adriatic Sea, as well as for 55% of the Upper Airspace of Bosnia and Herzegovina. SMATSA, which is a Serbian company partially owned by the Montenegrin government, produces warnings for the civil aviation sector using (free of charge) data, analyses and forecasts produced by HMI. HMI has also the duty to produce non-scheduled meteorological and hydrological information and warnings in situation of hydrometeorological disaster (emergency situation). Transboundary and regional issues Montenegro is involved in the following regional and cross-border cooperation initiatives. South-East European Cooperation Process (SEECP) The Black Sea Economic Forum The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River Regional Environmental Reconstruction Program for South-East Europe (REReP) Dinaric Arc and the Balkans Environment Outlook (BABEO) Dinaric Arc Initiative The Central European Initiative Danube Cooperation Process 3. Priority sectors for adaptation action List of main policy sectors for which actions are agreed or planned o If different documents exist with different lists of actions, please include and explain briefly the differences o The individual policy actions should not be included (since this would be too long and complex at this stage) The main issues, strategic priorities and actions are identified in the TNA and the priority sub-sectors for adaptation for Montenegro are: water resources, public health, agricultural land, agricultural production, coastal area and forestry. Water resources – The main issue that was identified in the TNA was that water resource use is not fully in line with sustainability requirements and is not based on estimated climate change risks. This has begun to be addressed through the Montenegro Water Sector Report. This report reviewed the water monitoring network, the availability of spatial data (quality, data sources), institutional structures and provided examples of best practice. It also designed a water information system ‘tailor made’ for Montenegro that is compliant with the Water Framework Directive and other EC requirements. o If available costs of actions/measures (or indicate if this is included in documents under the first bullet) 4. Local action Networks or other collaborations across local authorities on adaptation actions Databases on case studies (or projects) of implemented measures (not the actual case studies themselves) Individual cities’ actions (list of cities to be selected based on criteria such as relevance, importance) 5. Summary table Item Status Web links (information only in German) National Adaptation Strategy Prepared http://www.unfccc.me/index.php ?page=tna-montenegro Action Plans Being developed http://www.unfccc.me/index.php ?page=tna-montenegro Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments Being developed IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment Montenegro http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/ ?q=countries-riskinformation/documentspublications/project-report 1st NC http://unfccc.int/essential_backg round/library/items/3599.php?su ch=j&symbol=MNE/COM/1%20 E#beg Detailed Water Sector Assessment and Water Cadastre Proposals. 2013 http://www.unfccc.me/uploads/D okumenta/nacionalnekomunikacije/Montenegro%20W ater%20Sector%20Report.pdf Research programs Climate Services / Met Office Being developed Web Portal Monitoring, Indicators, Methodologies 5th National Communication on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1st NC 2010 6. Contact details Please provide Contact details of selected key national coordinators and organisations, e.g. Ministry of the Environment Environmental Protection Agency and/or other competent organisations (e.g. Advisory Bodies) Coordinating Research Institutes NFP EEA 7. Gaps in knowledge The following gaps in knowledge were identified from the literature: Climate services a) There is a need to develop a climate data management system and climate analyses a.1 It is necessary to strengthen the hydrometeorological observation network, including further automatization and establishment of weather radar network and risk assessment, production and dissemination of early warning and local scale analyses of climate change; b) There is a need to develop the technical capacities for climate change projections downscaling to local scales b.1 It is necessary to enhance investments in climate modelling in cooperation with SEEVCCC and forecasting and analysis to support strategic and sectoral planning for at-risk sectors and investment plans of industry in order to promote economic development of the country. c) There is a need to develop climate change impact studies in cooperation with DRR, industry and other sectors. c.1 There are urgent needs to enhance the institutional capacity of HMI for hazard mapping c.2 There is no inventory nor list or database of past floods or droughts. In addition in general there is no systematic process for flood and drought hazard analysis nor mapping. Most of the existing hazard analysis and mapping available in Montenegro have or are being produced on a project basis. There is need for a standardized methodology for impacts/damages assessment i.e. the establishment of a database or at list a metadatabase of impact data per hazard is crucial in order to facilitate data access. Policy issues The value of better hydrometeorological observations and services to the national economic development, and especially to DRR, is not yet fully recognized and appreciated at policy level. There is a need to raise awareness about the problem of climate change and improve cooperation and information exchange. Institutional structures Institutional constraints include lack of experience, insufficient capacity, inadequate collaboration and exchange of information among institutions, a low level of knowledge and lack of funds for research programs. Staff/human resources Unlike the hydrometeorological services in EU the HMI has insufficient number of employees to operate a 24/7 monitoring, analysis and forecasting system. HMI suffers severely from lack of computing and IT systems, with proper back-up system. Currently HMI has no training programme for experts. Due to the low number of experts it is difficult to send staff to be trained by European or other advanced NHMS. HMI participates in WMO and UNISDR workshops and training as much as possible. However, the low number of forecasters ,meteorological and hydrological experts limits the possibilities for them to participate in this type of training. Financing HMI does not have resources to operate a 24/7 analysing and forecasting system. HMI is also under-financed with regard to the purchase, operation and maintanance of the hydrometeorological observation network (adequate number automatic real-time meteorological and hydrological stations) or modern weather radar and lightning detection networks. Gaps in sectors In general there is a lack of detailed, specific and quantified data on vulnerability and adaptation potential at the sector level. Below are specific gaps. Public health: there is no adaptation strategy for public health. The information basis and capacities are not sufficient so that diseases caused by climate change could be prevented and risks from extreme weather events reduced. Agriculture: potential for vulnerability reduction is not sufficiently used for agricultural land since necessary information and capacities are lacking. In the agricultural production sub-sector there is no specific scientific research. Institutional and other capacities needed to ensure systematic response to adaptation challenges are lacking. Coastal area: planning and management of resources in coastal area are fragmented and do not include expected climate change risks. Forestry: capacities for planning and implementation of sustainable forest management measures (as the most suitable framework for adaptation) are insufficient. The Actions proposed (in the TNA) to ensure that development goals are not put at risk are the following: protection and conservation of water, soil, forests and coastal ecosystems, development of sustainable systems in agriculture, development of capacities for adequate responses to climate change in health sector, planning and development of tourism and energy facilities in accordance with changed climate conditions are all necessary in order. Opinions from the 1st workshop need to be added. 8. References Reference title Year, Publisher, website link 1 South east European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation. 2008. SEE/VCCC, REC, RHMSS, http://www.seevccc.rs/CCFAP-A/CCFAP-A.pdf 2 Regional Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Synthesis report. 2012. SEEFCCA, http://awsassets.panda.org/downloads/regional_cva_synth esis_report.pdf 3 Strengthening Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems and Risk Assessment in the Western Balkans and Turkey: Assessment of capacities, gaps and needs. 2012. WMO 4 Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report. 2013. ENVSEC, UNEP. http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Ch ange/CCSEE-Final.pdf 5 The initial national communication on climate change of Montenegro to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). IPA Beneficiary Country Needs Assessment Montenegro 2010. Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.p hp?such=j&symbol=MNE/COM/1%20E#beg 6 7 Republic of Montenegro. Detailed Water Sector Assessment and Water Cadastre Proposals 8 Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro National Strategy and Action Plan 9 Add REFS from Mijiana?? http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/SEE/document s/SEEPhase%20I%20-%20MontenegroReport.pdf 2012. European Union, UNDP and WMO. http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/?q=countries-riskinformation/documents-publications/project-report February 2013. Consultant Report 1025. UNDP http://www.unfccc.me/uploads/Dokumenta/nacionalnekomunikacije/Montenegro%20Water%20Sector%20Report .pdf October 2012 Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism. http://www.unfccc.me/index.php?page=tnamontenegro REFS from Mijiana?? Annex 1 Montenegro has developed national plans containing specific plans on adaptation. The main anticipated initiatives by sector are provided. (The Republic of Montenegro: Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment). Water Prepare the cadastre of water resources and each water resource with all its characteristics and identify areas of potential danger Establish a high level of information exchange among different institutions dealing with water resources Provide a modern automated measuring and control system for the controlled management of water resources Provide numerical models and their use in daily operational practice, for the purpose of daily monitoring of the status of water resources Amendments to the applicable legislation in the field of spatial planning in order to include the problem of climate change in coastal during the preparation of spatial planning documentation Provide for maximum possible protection of water sources from the penetration of sea water Natural Ecosystem Establishing an infrastructure for scientific research of impacts of climate change on biodiversity, terrestrial ecosystems and the sea Training of experts on the issues of climate change and implementation of modern technologies Collection of necessary data to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, the sea and biodiversity Appointment of an intersectoral group which will deal with the issues of water resources Elaboration bio-corridors and migratory routes of various species under the conditions of climate change Establish a gene bank of endemic, threatened and endangered species Assessment of options for the protection of biodiversity (species) under ex situ conditions An increase of surface area under protection in accordance with the approved official documents (The Spatial Plan of Montenegro until 2020; The National Strategy for Sustainable Development) Agriculture Make the agricultural system more flexible, so as to minimize any adverse impacts and disasters on a broad level Introduction of the use of breeds that are resistant to heat stress and tropical disease Education for the producers in the application of new technical adjustments Forestry Conversion of coppice forests into high forests Rehabilitation of degraded forests; Substituting of failed natural regeneration in high forest; Preventive measures to protect forests and methods of biological fighting must have a primary character. Reference: Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe A Background Report. http://www.unep.at/documents_unep/ENVSEC/Climate_Change/CCSEE-Final.pdf